As StR's resident mathematician, I have put it upon myself to give everyone the real draft odds.  The main problem with the percentages given for the second and third picks is that they don't take into account the loss of combinations from the team that won the first pick and second pick.

Firstly, the 1st overall pick odds are correct as no team has been eliminated we have an exactly 25.0% chance of landing the first pick.

The second pick is where it gets slightly more complicated, here are all the different odds we have of winning the second pick determined by who took the first pick: 31.2%, 29.6%, 28.4%, 27.4%, 26.7%, 26.1%, 25.7%, 25.4%, 25.3%, 25.2%, 25.18%, 25.15%, 25.13%.  The percentages are ordered by the biggest losers, thus 31.2% coincides with the Wizards, 29.6% with the Clippers, and so on down the line.  Obviously, you want a team as close to your lottery combinations as possible to get lucky.  Eliminating a hundred plus combinations greatly enhances the Kings possibility of winning the second pick.

The third pick percentages are again determined by the winners of the first two picks.  There are 91 different combinations and even though I am bored at work, I am not quite that bored.  The range in %'s go from 38.8% (Was/Lac) to 25.3% (Indy/Phx) again like the second pick you want the highest possible amount of combinations to be eliminated in order to insure the greatest % of landing the third pick.

The moral of all this math is pretty straight forward, if on lottery day one of the teams from the back jumps into the lottery, our chances drop immensely of getting a top 3 pick. Conversely, if a team near us gets lucky, we have a better chance of moving out of the 4th pick.


It's a number game, but shit don't add up somehow
Like I got, sixteen to thirty-two bars to rock it
but only 15% of profits, ever see my pockets like
sixty-nine billion in the last twenty years
spent on national defense but folks still live in fear



(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)

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