FanPost

Mathematics

As StR's resident mathematician, I have put it upon myself to give everyone the real draft odds.  The main problem with the percentages given for the second and third picks is that they don't take into account the loss of combinations from the team that won the first pick and second pick.

Firstly, the 1st overall pick odds are correct as no team has been eliminated we have an exactly 25.0% chance of landing the first pick.

The second pick is where it gets slightly more complicated, here are all the different odds we have of winning the second pick determined by who took the first pick: 31.2%, 29.6%, 28.4%, 27.4%, 26.7%, 26.1%, 25.7%, 25.4%, 25.3%, 25.2%, 25.18%, 25.15%, 25.13%.  The percentages are ordered by the biggest losers, thus 31.2% coincides with the Wizards, 29.6% with the Clippers, and so on down the line.  Obviously, you want a team as close to your lottery combinations as possible to get lucky.  Eliminating a hundred plus combinations greatly enhances the Kings possibility of winning the second pick.

The third pick percentages are again determined by the winners of the first two picks.  There are 91 different combinations and even though I am bored at work, I am not quite that bored.  The range in %'s go from 38.8% (Was/Lac) to 25.3% (Indy/Phx) again like the second pick you want the highest possible amount of combinations to be eliminated in order to insure the greatest % of landing the third pick.

The moral of all this math is pretty straight forward, if on lottery day one of the teams from the back jumps into the lottery, our chances drop immensely of getting a top 3 pick. Conversely, if a team near us gets lucky, we have a better chance of moving out of the 4th pick.

 

It's a number game, but shit don't add up somehow
Like I got, sixteen to thirty-two bars to rock it
but only 15% of profits, ever see my pockets like
sixty-nine billion in the last twenty years
spent on national defense but folks still live in fear

 

 

(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Sactown Royalty

You must be a member of Sactown Royalty to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Sactown Royalty. You should read them.

Join Sactown Royalty

You must be a member of Sactown Royalty to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Sactown Royalty. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9347_tracker