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Another Example of the Potency of Kevin Martin's Ordnance: The 20/60 Club

You may remember last spring's assessment of Kevin Martin's unprecedented offensive arsenal, in which I showed that our shooting guard put up the most effective "free throws & threes" season in NBA history, shooting better than 40% from behind the arc while earning 9.5 FTAs per game. No player shooting 40% on threes (with at least one longball attempted per game) had ever drawn so many as nine FTAs on average. Only one other player -- another famous #23, Michael Jordan -- had drawn eight FTAs a game and shot 40% from three. Threes and free throws are (obviously) incredibly important, and no one in the game combines the weaponry like Kevin Martin.

(Note: Martin re-joined his own club this season, assuming his stats don't vary wildly in the remaining games. Only this time he went over 10 FTAs per game [!!!] while shooting 41% from three. And this has been a down year with an ongoing injury. Incredible.)

Here's another notch for Martin's totem.

True Shooting percentage, a metric I use often, measures shooting efficiency. Field goal percentage is the basic metric to measure shooting efficiency, but as most of you know it's not the best use because it doesn't take into account three-pointers. Three-pointers are a big deal, obviously, and shooters who make them should be credited with all three points a make earns. Using FG%, going 2-4 from three is the same as going 2-4 from two-point range. On the scoreboard -- which is what matters -- going 2-4 from three means six points; going 2-4 under the rim means four points. As such, the TS% for the three-point shooting scenario is 75% (six points in four shooting possessions) and the TS% for the two-point shooting scenario is 50%.

But what about free throws? Those matter too! How many times this season has someone referred to Martin as inefficient because of his 42% field goal percentage? Of course, Martin is among the most efficient top scorers ... because of his foul-drawing ability. True Shooting percentage says that points scored from the line should be credited in your shooting efficiency, too. If a player shooting 3-10 from the field (all twos), but also draws 8 FTAs (and makes them all), he has scored 14 points and used 14 of his team's possessions (assuming the FTAs didn't come on and-1s or technical fouls). On the scoreboard, this counts the same as a player who shoots 7-14 (all twos again) and draws zero FTAs. Again, if it counts the same on the scoreboard, it should count the same in our shooting percentage metric. With TS%, it does.

(Note: It almost does. TS% uses an estimator for shooting possessions used by free throws -- FTA x 0.44 -- to account for and-1s and techs. This has been proven to be extremely accurate on a large-scale basis, but can be a bit off in single-game situations. In those instances, the analyst can look at the play-by-play and actually count the possessions used by FTAs.)

True Shooting percentage is really the egalitarian shooting percentage metric. It doesn't discriminate as to how you get your points -- it's method is to count all your points, count all your shooting possessions, and measure the efficiency. (The actual formula, including the aforementioned FTA adjustment: [Points / {FGA + (FTA x 0.44)} / 2]. If you don't divide by 2 at the end, you get what is known as Points per Shot, or Points per Shooting Possession. Since two is the standard value for the basic basketball basket, dividing Points per Shot by two gives us something resembling FG%, which is safe and reassuring.)

In basic parlance, a 55% True Shooting is about average, or a bit better. 58% is considering good, efficient. 60% is sort of a gold standard -- hit this and you're quite efficient. A big man who has a really high FG%, like Joel Przybilla -- provided he doesn't also take and miss a ton of free throws -- will have a TS% approximately his FG%. We consider a 60% FG clip to be really great for big men (and too high a standard for guards). So it makes intuitive sense that a 60% TS would be considered strong.

This season, 20 players would have seen at least 1,000 minutes have a TS% at 60% or higher. This is typical. Four of these players also score more than 20 points per game (Amar'e Stoudemire, Chris Paul, Dwight Howard and [ahem] Martin). Last season, 24 players ran a 60% TS or better, and three of these players (Stoudemire, Howard, Martin) scored 20 points or better. In 2006-07, 18 players made a 60% TS and four of them also hit 20 ppg (Martin, Stoudemire, Dirk Nowitzki, Yao Ming).

You get the points: even the best scorers aren't this efficient, and there are only a couple current players who perform this unholy alliance of high production and high efficiency. One of them is Sacramento's star shooting guard.

I took a look at the entire 20 ppg/60% TS club, and sussed out how many 20/60 seasons each club member registered. This is the result. (Note: I put together the list late last week, when Paul was under 60% TS. He's at 60.2% right now -- if he stays above the line, he'd be a first-time inductee into the club. He's not on this list, but he very well could be at the end of the season.)

-----

The 20/60 Club

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar: 11 seasons (1971-72, 1977, 1979-86)
Adrian Dantley: 9 seasons (1977, 1980-82, 1984-88)
Reggie Miller: 6 seasons (1990-93, 1996-97)
Charles Barkley: 7 seasons (1986-92)
Kevin McHale: 5 seasons (1986-90)
Kiki Vandeweghe: 5 seasons (1982-86)
Artis Gilmore: 4 seasons (1972, 1975, 1978-79)
Michael Jordan: 4 seasons (1988-91)
Amare Stoudemire: 4 seasons (2005, 2007-09)
Kevin Martin: 3 seasons (2007-09)
Magic Johnson: 3 seasons (1987, 1989-90)
Bernard King: 3 seasons (1981-82, 1984)
Karl Malone: 3 seasons (1990, 1993, 1997)
Zelmo Beaty: 2 seasons (1971-72)
Larry Bird: 2 seasons (1987-88)
Bill Cartwright: 2 seasons (1980-81)
Brad Daugherty: 2 seasons (1992-93)
Walter Davis: 2 seasons (1979-80)
Dwight Howard: 2 seasons (2008-09)
Kevin Johnson: 2 seasons (1991, 1997)
Sidney Moncrief: 2 seasons (1983, 1986)
Chris Mullin: 2 seasons (1990-91)
Larry Nance: 2 seasons (1986-87)
Dirk Nowitzki: 2 seasons (2001, 2007)
Shaquille O'Neal: 2 seasons (1994, 2003)
David Robinson: 2 seasons (1991, 1995)
Ray Allen: 1 season (2001)
Dana Barros: 1 season (1995)
Rick Barry: 1 season (1969) [Note: Hurt by lack of three-pointers during his era.)
Wilt Chamberlain: 1 season (1967)
Patrick Ewing: 1 season (1989)
George Gervin: 1 season (1977)
Penny Hardaway: 1 season (1996)
Dan Issel: 1 season (1982)
Moses Malone: 1 season (1979)
Yao Ming: 1 season (2007)
Calvin Natt: 1 season (1985)
Drazen Petrovic: 1 season (1993)
Glen Rice: 1 season (1997)
Jeff Ruland: 1 season (1984)
Peja Stojakovic: 1 season (2004)
Orlando Woolridge: 1 season (1985)
James Worthy: 1 season (1986)

-----

We have a special cat on our hands, ladies and gentlefolk. We're all piss-and-vinegar'd up about the Worst Season Ever, but please don't let this devolve into a "BUT CAN HE DEFEND?!?!!!!!!?" thread. Would you tell Monet to write a sonata?

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awesome

there is definitely a difference in the way Kevin can move because of the ankle, if you look back to the first few games of the season when he wasn’t injured. he was almost unstoppable—always drawing fouls or getting open, or finishing dunks with speed and violence. he hasn’t been able to jump like he used to.

i hope he recovers fully and we can see all of his hard work from last summer take shape.

put me in, Coach

by LaBradford on Apr 6, 2009 1:34 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

Pre-injury I was most impressed by how he had started to finish plays at the rim. If I recall correctly that was something Thorpe really worked with him on last off-season.

While Diop may not be ready to see a healthy Speed Racer again, I can’t wait to see him start throwing down again.

Kings fan in OKC

by rockrichmond2 on Apr 6, 2009 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not worried about KMs defense

yes, it could be better, should be better – but every good team needs a #1 scorer to fill the stat sheet.

Now SOMEWHERE on the roster we have to find/add some D
(please)

But KMs my man.

So imitate the action of the tiger!.
- lend the eye a terrible aspect
and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on Apr 6, 2009 1:41 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Did I miss where up there you actually stated his TS this year?

So imitate the action of the tiger!.
- lend the eye a terrible aspect
and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on Apr 6, 2009 1:42 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

60.1

I hope he doesn’t drop below.

by Ziller on Apr 6, 2009 1:42 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

haha

if he does, can we chalk it up to his injury?

put me in, Coach

by LaBradford on Apr 6, 2009 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

wow TZ that's an impressive list, thanks for doing all the work to put it together but I have one question.

Dub’s fans are always rubbing our noses in the superiority or Montay’s game over Kevin’s. Do you know what ME’s
TS% is by any chance? I’m glad you did the research because as King’s fans we tend to take Kevin’s game for granted or discount it because of his d. He really is a fantastic player that doesn’t get enough love here or certainly in the national media.

"We are in the business of kicking butt and business is very, very good." - Charles Barkley

by Bluejohn on Apr 6, 2009 1:46 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Monta: 50% TS

… the fifth worst clip among players who score at least 15 ppg. In fairness, he was at 58% TS last season, his career high and a fine clip.

by Ziller on Apr 6, 2009 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Basically

His offense has been all out of whack this season, owed to the injury and the fact that the Warriors were basically eliminated by the time he came back. At his best, though, he still doesn’t draw fouls like Martin.

by Ziller on Apr 6, 2009 4:07 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Looking at that list

The NBA needs more guys named Zelmo

(He’s the one guy I don’t recognize)

So imitate the action of the tiger!.
- lend the eye a terrible aspect
and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on Apr 6, 2009 1:50 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Zelmo!

Crazy ABA big man.

by Ziller on Apr 6, 2009 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Been reading Loose Balls too much lately have we?

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

I am the stone that builder refused..I am the visual...The inspiration..That made lady sing the blues....I'm the spark that makes your idea bright.....The same spark that lights the dark....So that you can know your left from your right...I am the ballot in your box....The bullet in your gun...The inner glow that lets you know...To call your brother son....The story that just begun...The promise of what's to come...And I'm 'a remain a soldier till the war is won....

by pookeyguru on Apr 7, 2009 3:45 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's Good

Bé foréwarnéd: I am a mémbér of StR Groupthink méntality.

by CAB on Apr 6, 2009 3:28 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Sign Amare Stoudemire

Just think how efficient the KINGS would be in scoring if they signed Amare Stoudemire and had both Amare and Martin :) The KINGS would be a scoring machine… The only problem is their D’fence would look worse then swiss cheese with all the holes it would have.

by AyyJude on Apr 6, 2009 3:54 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Seeing Drazen Petrovic on that list

makes me wonder how good he could have been. He is by far my favorite swingman I’ve ever seen.

By the way, was Pete Maravich not a very efficient scorer? I’m kinda surprised not to see him on that list

"Greed is the inventor of injustice as well as the current enforcer." - Julian Casablancas

by submison on Apr 6, 2009 4:37 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

His best TS%

was 52.4% in ’75-76. Scroll down to “Advanced”

Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott

by Kfan in Korea on Apr 6, 2009 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also

He didn’t have the benefit of the three-pointer most of his career.

by Ziller on Apr 6, 2009 7:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

the benefit of the 3 pointer

is why Zelmo (ABA) is on the list. It is off subject and impossible to guess at: Jerry West, Jerry Lucas were deep shooters among others who might have been able to add 3 pointers to their TS% as you point out for the great Rick Barry.

TZ – again, fine work and thank you for the time and patience to explain the basics.

by betweentheeyes on Apr 6, 2009 9:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Or playing with a quality guard

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

I am the stone that builder refused..I am the visual...The inspiration..That made lady sing the blues....I'm the spark that makes your idea bright.....The same spark that lights the dark....So that you can know your left from your right...I am the ballot in your box....The bullet in your gun...The inner glow that lets you know...To call your brother son....The story that just begun...The promise of what's to come...And I'm 'a remain a soldier till the war is won....

by pookeyguru on Apr 7, 2009 3:55 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Far as I'm concerned...

Kevin Martin is the absolute real deal. He has Manu Ginobli-like impact to the game in that he just frustrates the crap out of the opponents and defenders. His overall FG% will improve next year when he gets an entire offseason to work on it. Kevin Martin is a bona fide star. I’m not trying to be captain obvious.

With a solid players around him, he is a very vital cog to the championship puzzle for the Kings in the future. (Hopefully in the not too distant future).

BOOK IT!

by kingme18 on Apr 6, 2009 5:41 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Got K-Mart's Autograph today

while I was working at my store. Pretty neat. Asked him how the ankle was and he said its been ok lately.

by Aykis16 on Apr 6, 2009 7:59 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Mow nay

Or Maw nay, that is the question.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

I am the stone that builder refused..I am the visual...The inspiration..That made lady sing the blues....I'm the spark that makes your idea bright.....The same spark that lights the dark....So that you can know your left from your right...I am the ballot in your box....The bullet in your gun...The inner glow that lets you know...To call your brother son....The story that just begun...The promise of what's to come...And I'm 'a remain a soldier till the war is won....

by pookeyguru on Apr 7, 2009 3:35 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm sorry!

but its not a question of defense its a question of teamwork. I’m fearful he won’t be able to breakout of the selfish habits he is developing. Look at the numbers he plays the same in the wins and losses… this tells me he isn’t big time, he can’t take over games. and counting this year he has missed 20+ games in the last to seasons. I like Martin but I can’t depend on him. Its like when the TrailBlazers were depending on Zach Randolph.

by SamGoody on Apr 7, 2009 11:15 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

You've got that wrong, the one thing you can say about Kevin, he's not selfish.

He moves great without the ball and if anything, at times he should be calling more for the ball. He’s not a chucker as shown by his TS% and is smart, largely taking good shots. If you want to compare him to Zach Randolph for anything other than his durability you are way off base.

There’s not much I can say about his durability, it’s a concern but despite his absences as TZ has shown in this post he is an elite scorer who doesn’t get the credit he deserves.

For an interesting comparison check out yesterdays True Hoop article in which Henry Abbot quotes Kevin Pelton put together a statistical analysis (I know how you guys feel about stats) comparing today’s players to yesterday’s Hall of Famers and he has a comparison re Kevin Martins game with a player from the 80"s and you can read it here: http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-39-31/If-Hall-of-Fame-Candidates-Played-Today.html. I’ll give you a hint, today we remember him as an elite defender.

"We are in the business of kicking butt and business is very, very good." - Charles Barkley

by Bluejohn on Apr 7, 2009 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I find it interesting

That there are 2 KIngs players on this list.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

I am the stone that builder refused..I am the visual...The inspiration..That made lady sing the blues....I'm the spark that makes your idea bright.....The same spark that lights the dark....So that you can know your left from your right...I am the ballot in your box....The bullet in your gun...The inner glow that lets you know...To call your brother son....The story that just begun...The promise of what's to come...And I'm 'a remain a soldier till the war is won....

by pookeyguru on Apr 7, 2009 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

...and Kenny's Natting brother.

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on Apr 7, 2009 3:35 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

It definitely helps having such an efficient shooter, although his FG% wasn’t that great this year. For the future, the success of the Kings will depend on Hawes and Thompson getting it done in the paint. Martin is a good supporting player, but rebounding and defense are what you need to win a title.

by GoodaleBBQShack on Apr 8, 2009 9:59 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

At running the risk of being beaten by pookey again....

For mentioning an unmentionable….

Don’t all the Championship teams for quite some time have Clutch shooters? K-Mart is awefully close.
Kobe? Wade? Manu? and Robert Horry was on 4/5 of those teams. even the teams that they played against had Dirk, AI, Reggie Miller. . . Yes, the were headed by TD and Shaq, but what about that guy in the 90’s, Michael something… Jackson maybe? Don’t tell me that you can’t win a ring with K-Mart at your core. Yeah, he’s no MJ, LeBron, Wade, but he’s got icewater in his veins. We had Bibby before to match up with Webber. Let’s face it. If there were a perfect mold for a championship run, everyone would mimick that. Clearly, some people think having undersized powerforwards (woof!) paid big money will help. I dunno, I just think that K-Mart is THE keystone of our team. Heck, even Kobe and LeBron had some pretty awful years with no support. Look at how TD’s spurs are going to do without Manu.

Kings fan? A's Fan?! Al Davis Run Raiders Fan?!!?!! ANNNND you're sacrificing 2 years of your life because you're LDS?!!?!?!?!?! Yeah, Masochist is the new sexy.

by killerking on Apr 9, 2009 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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