Sacramento's Lucky Numbers

by Tom Ziller on May 1, 2009 9:51 AM PDT in NBA Draft

Contrary to popular belief, the NBA draft lottery does not consist of a hopper filled with 100 ping pong balls, 25 of which will be emblazoned with the Kings logo. The hooper has 14 balls, numbered 1-14. To decide the first pick in the draft, four balls are drawn. That will present a four-number combination. A board in the room has all the possible combinations listed, grouped by team. Whichever team has the combination wins the pick. The balls are thrown back in the hopper, and we do it again to decide the second pick. If the resulting combination belongs to the team with the first pick, we do it again. Once a team has won the second pick, the balls go back in and we decide the third pick. There is one unclaimed combination -- 11-12-13-14 -- which results in a re-draw. All the 1,000 other combinations are distributed based on the percentages we all know and love (25% chance for the Kings, thus 250 combinations).

But exactly are those winning combinations? I did some research and figured out which 250 combinations belong to the Kings. You'll find the table after the jump.

1-2-3-4
1-2-3-5
1-2-3-6
1-2-3-7
1-2-3-8
1-2-3-9
1-2-3-10
1-2-3-11
1-2-3-12
1-2-3-13
1-2-3-14
1-2-4-5
1-2-4-6
1-2-4-7
1-2-4-8
1-2-4-9
1-2-4-10
1-2-4-11
1-2-4-12
1-2-4-13
1-2-4-14
1-2-5-6
1-2-5-7
1-2-5-8
1-2-5-9
1-2-5-10
1-2-5-11
1-2-5-12
1-2-5-13
1-2-5-14
1-2-6-7
1-2-6-8
1-2-6-9
1-2-6-10
1-2-6-11
1-2-6-12
1-2-6-13
1-2-6-14
1-2-7-8
1-2-7-9
1-2-7-10
1-2-7-11
1-2-7-12
1-2-7-13
1-2-7-14
1-2-8-9
1-2-8-10
1-2-8-11
1-2-8-12
1-2-8-13

1-2-8-14
1-2-9-10
1-2-9-11
1-2-9-12
1-2-9-13
1-2-9-14
1-2-10-11
1-2-10-12
1-2-10-13
1-2-10-14
1-2-11-12
1-2-11-13
1-2-11-14
1-2-12-13
1-2-12-14
1-2-13-14
1-3-4-5
1-3-4-6
1-3-4-7
1-3-4-8
1-3-4-9
1-3-4-10
1-3-4-11
1-3-4-12
1-3-4-13
1-3-4-14
1-3-5-6
1-3-5-7
1-3-5-8
1-3-5-9
1-3-5-10
1-3-5-11
1-3-5-12
1-3-5-13
1-3-5-14
1-3-6-7
1-3-6-8
1-3-6-9
1-3-6-10
1-3-6-11
1-3-6-12
1-3-6-13
1-3-6-14
1-3-7-8
1-3-7-9
1-3-7-10
1-3-7-11
1-3-7-12
1-3-7-13
1-3-7-14

1-3-8-9
1-3-8-10
1-3-8-11
1-3-8-12
1-3-8-13
1-3-8-14
1-3-9-10
1-3-9-11
1-3-9-12
1-3-9-13
1-3-9-14
1-3-10-11
1-3-10-12
1-3-10-13
1-3-10-14
1-3-11-12
1-3-11-13
1-3-11-14
1-3-12-13
1-3-12-14
1-3-13-14
1-4-5-6
1-4-5-7
1-4-5-8
1-4-5-9
1-4-5-10
1-4-5-11
1-4-5-12
1-4-5-13
1-4-5-14
1-4-6-7
1-4-6-8
1-4-6-9
1-4-6-10
1-4-6-11
1-4-6-12
1-4-6-13
1-4-6-14
1-4-7-8
1-4-7-9
1-4-7-10
1-4-7-11
1-4-7-12
1-4-7-13
1-4-7-14
1-4-8-9
1-4-8-10
1-4-8-11
1-4-8-12
1-4-8-13

1-4-8-14
1-4-9-10
1-4-9-11
1-4-9-12
1-4-9-13
1-4-9-14
1-4-10-11
1-4-10-12
1-4-10-13
1-4-10-14
1-4-11-12
1-4-11-13
1-4-11-14
1-4-12-13
1-4-12-14
1-4-13-14
1-5-6-7
1-5-6-8
1-5-6-9
1-5-6-10
1-5-6-11
1-5-6-12
1-5-6-13
1-5-6-14
1-5-7-8
1-5-7-9
1-5-7-10
1-5-7-11
1-5-7-12
1-5-7-13
1-5-7-14
1-5-8-9
1-5-8-10
1-5-8-11
1-5-8-12
1-5-8-13
1-5-8-14
1-5-9-10
1-5-9-11
1-5-9-12
1-5-9-13
1-5-9-14
1-5-10-11
1-5-10-12
1-5-10-13
1-5-10-14
1-5-11-12
1-5-11-13
1-5-11-14
1-5-12-13

1-5-12-14
1-5-13-14
1-6-7-8
1-6-7-9
1-6-7-10
1-6-7-11
1-6-7-12
1-6-7-13
1-6-7-14
1-6-8-9
1-6-8-10
1-6-8-11
1-6-8-12
1-6-8-13
1-6-8-14
1-6-9-10
1-6-9-11
1-6-9-12
1-6-9-13
1-6-9-14
1-6-10-11
1-6-10-12
1-6-10-13
1-6-10-14
1-6-11-12
1-6-11-13
1-6-11-14
1-6-12-13
1-6-12-14
1-6-13-14
1-7-8-9
1-7-8-10
1-7-8-11
1-7-8-12
1-7-8-13
1-7-8-14
1-7-9-10
1-7-9-11
1-7-9-12
1-7-9-13
1-7-9-14
1-7-10-11
1-7-10-12
1-7-10-13
1-7-10-14
1-7-11-12
1-7-11-13
1-7-11-14
1-7-12-13
1-7-12-14

I would not advise tattooing all of these combinations on your back, or calf. If you'd like to print them out and carry them in your pocket on Sundays, perhaps sprinkling Holy Water on them ... or rubbing four-leaf clovers on them ... or burying them in a time capsule to be opened with the Kings win a championship -- whatever you want, man. I'm not the boss of you.

(A 2007 article on NBA.com by Celtics statmaster Mike Zarren was incredibly helpful for this project.)

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Comments

So basically....

it’s ‘1’ ball or die.

Perhaps we should send Lance Armstrong as our representative to the draft?

by cabz on May 1, 2009 9:56 AM PDT reply actions 3 recs

That's

lethal

Bé foréwarnéd: I am a mémbér of StR Groupthink méntality.

by CAB on May 1, 2009 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions

But

The one ball has a 75% (plus or – 1/2%…I did it in my head) of being drawn

by ElRonToro on May 1, 2009 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions

Huh?

I’m no math-whiz, but if there are 14 balls, I would think there’s a 1/14 chance of the 1 being drawn first.

Also, I can’t tell if you were being sarcastic.

Never forget: I am a complete idiot

by Exhibit G on May 1, 2009 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions

Don't think they need to be in order

but this makes my head hurt

So imitate the action of the tiger!.
- lend the eye a terrible aspect
and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on May 1, 2009 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions

If they had to be in the correct order

there would be billions of combo’s

So imitate the action of the tiger!.
- lend the eye a terrible aspect
and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on May 1, 2009 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions

actually I think it'd be 10 trillion?

So imitate the action of the tiger!.
- lend the eye a terrible aspect
and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on May 1, 2009 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions

They don't have to go in order

because once a number is drawn it’s not going to be drawn again

www.mancancook.net

by vfettke on May 1, 2009 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions

The important point to note is that

There is only 14 balls right?

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 1, 2009 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions

Or balls with 14 numbers on it

Is what I mean.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 1, 2009 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions

Exactly

way to correct yourself… wouldn’t want anyone here to think you fantasize about seven dudes, would we?

www.mancancook.net

by vfettke on May 1, 2009 1:01 PM PDT up reply actions

Only if they got fake titties :)

And umm, are 5’6.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 1, 2009 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions

So 5'6" with fake boobs and a penis?

www.mancancook.net

by vfettke on May 1, 2009 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions

And is that 5'6" in with or without shoes?

www.mancancook.net

by vfettke on May 1, 2009 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions

Hermaphrodites are not within the current parameters sir.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 1, 2009 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions

5'9 with the right kind of shoes

Jes sayin…

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 1, 2009 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions

and there in lies the proof in the statement

One is the loneliest number

by betweentheeyes on May 2, 2009 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions

But

Does it have to be drawn first? Or can it be in any order?

Looking at the combinations we have, it seems to me that the way they’re doing it there aren’t that many more combinations with the number one in them at all.

There are only 1000 combinations, after all, out of a potention 2744 (14×14×14x14), and if they’re sequentially assigned based on the pattern shown above, then the only patterns left that still have a one in them are 1-7-13-14 to 1-12-13-14, which is another 15 combinations.

1-7-13-14
1-8-9-10
1-8-10-11
1-8-11-12
1-8-12-13
1-8-13-14
1-9-10-11
1-9-11-12
1-9-12-13
1-9-13-14
1-10-11-12
1-10-12-13
1-10-13-14
1-11-12-13
1-11-13-14
1-12-13-14

So if the ping pong ball with the number one is picked any of the four, we have a 250/265 chance (94%) of getting the #1 pick in the draft.

And it’s really sad that we’ve come to this.

Ok, people, let's generate all the good Karma we can until May 19. Then you can go back to your shallow and empty lifestyles.

by LeaguePassAddict on May 1, 2009 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions

Correction

I don’t know how I screwed up the number of potential combinations, but it should be 14×13×12x11 = 14024

Ok, people, let's generate all the good Karma we can until May 19. Then you can go back to your shallow and empty lifestyles.

by LeaguePassAddict on May 1, 2009 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions

Typo

24024. Sheesh.

Ok, people, let's generate all the good Karma we can until May 19. Then you can go back to your shallow and empty lifestyles.

by LeaguePassAddict on May 1, 2009 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions

Permutation vs combination

14×13×12x11 would give you 24,024 possibilities, but that is the calculation if order matters (in other words, if 1, 2, 3, 4 is different from 1, 3, 4, 2— referred to as permutations).

I don’t remember how to do the calculation for combinations by hand (it involves factorials), but punching in 14 nCr 4 on my calculator shows that it gives 1001 unique combinations (1,2,3,4 same as 1,3,4,2)— hence Ziller’s statement that one combination is omitted to make the 1000.

by twasserm on May 1, 2009 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions

It does not have to go in order

Essentially, four balls are drawn then ordered sequentially. So if they pick 14-7-9-1 then the combo would be 1-7-9-14

www.mancancook.net

by vfettke on May 1, 2009 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions

So 1 is a must pick combo

Crikeyness.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 1, 2009 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions

At least there is 250 1's in the hopper

That’s the only consolation.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 1, 2009 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions

I thought there were only 14 balls

m*****f***ing c***s***ing peanut butter and jelly!! f*** f*** f***!!!

by JediLeroy on May 1, 2009 5:18 PM PDT up reply actions

Yep 14 balls

Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott

by Kfan in Korea on May 1, 2009 5:22 PM PDT up reply actions

Whoops

My bad.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 2, 2009 2:42 AM PDT up reply actions

I'm curious to know your math on that

For the first draw you have 1 in 14 chance = 1/14
For the second draw you have 1 in 13 chance = 1/13
For the third draw you have 1 in 12 chance = 1/12
For the fourth draw you have 1 in 11 chance = 1/11

Adding those fractions up you get 3875/12012 which equals 32.25%

Unless my math is way off. Which is entirely posslbe (luckily for me what I lack in math skills I make up for with my mastery of snark)

www.mancancook.net

by vfettke on May 1, 2009 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions

Isn't that the exact same chances you have of getting a top 3 pick?

You’re amazing Holmes. :)

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 1, 2009 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions

Actually

it’s double that… you’d know that if you could read

but i am amazing

www.mancancook.net

by vfettke on May 1, 2009 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions

Well, no it's not

You have according to DX, 64.2 percent of getting a top 3 pick. 100% of having a top 4 pick. LOL

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 1, 2009 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions

Well shit

Yes it is double the percentage you gave. Misread that. Damn you vfettke! I smite you for 2 minutes!

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 1, 2009 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions

Wow...

After laughing in shameful fashion, I really don’t know what to say about that.

Wow.

Um….yeah…wow.

"Yeah, totally! Totes Magotes! Cool."

by PhutureKings on May 1, 2009 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions

Thanks Ziller.

I may get a priest to bless a printout of those numbers.

by mayfieldcol on May 1, 2009 11:03 AM PDT reply actions

Don't take your little brother.

"Yeah, totally! Totes Magotes! Cool."

by PhutureKings on May 1, 2009 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions

Or my son

by mayfieldcol on May 1, 2009 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions

I'm gonna take my printout to the Dhali Llama

we need to cover our bases here

Anyone daring enough to take a copy to some satanists? And while we’re at it whose got Jehovah’s Witnesses?

www.mancancook.net

by vfettke on May 1, 2009 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions

Big hitter, tha Llama

And I say, “Hey, Lama, hey, how about a little something, you know, for the effort, you know.” And he says, “Oh, uh, there won’t be any money, but when you die, on your deathbed, you will receive total consciousness.” So I got that goin’ for me, which is nice.

Never forget: I am a complete idiot

by Exhibit G on May 1, 2009 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs

The Dalai Lama

The flowing robes, the grace, bald… striking.

Question: What kind of bear is best?

by otis29 on May 1, 2009 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions

God you people!

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 1, 2009 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions

You get the JW's

When you walk up to the Kingdom Hall just say “I’m on the list”

www.mancancook.net

by vfettke on May 1, 2009 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions

Or even better

just knock on the door and say “you come to my house to talk to me about God, so it’s your turn to return the favor and let me hit you up about this draft”

www.mancancook.net

by vfettke on May 1, 2009 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions

Okay

I take it back. I hate you. 4eva & eva & eva!

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 1, 2009 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions

Big hitter, the Lama

Long.

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on May 1, 2009 5:38 PM PDT up reply actions

A Caddy Shack reference will always get you a rec.

Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott

by Kfan in Korea on May 1, 2009 4:29 PM PDT up reply actions

Order doesn't matter in all of these combinations...

the way you calculate all these odds is by 14 Choose 4 which is equal to 1001 (hence the one combination left out). In simpler math terms 14C4 is calculated by (14×13×12x11) divided by (4!). Simply this is explained by 14 choices in the first pick 13 choices in the second pick 12 in the third and 11 in the fourth. The reason you divide out by 4! is because the order of the combinations don’t matter, if the order mattered there would be 24024 different combinations, which isn’t as easy to deal with obviously.

There now I've met the 75 word count. -pookeyguru

by moproblemz on May 1, 2009 12:54 PM PDT reply actions

~My head hurts~

So imitate the action of the tiger!.
- lend the eye a terrible aspect
and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on May 1, 2009 12:55 PM PDT reply actions

Mine too

Got an excedrin??

by eduardo_m7 on May 1, 2009 6:41 PM PDT up reply actions

Do the odds get better or worse in our bare feet?

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on May 1, 2009 12:59 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs

It depends on if you're 6'9" or 6'10" I think

www.mancancook.net

by vfettke on May 1, 2009 1:03 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Only if you're 6'7

And hit your head on the backboard. :)

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 1, 2009 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions

This is all good and well but...

Has anyone thought about what we’d do if Ball #1 DOESN’T declare for the draft?

What then?…What then.

by clicc916 on May 1, 2009 1:20 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

The worst that can happen to the Kings is getting the 4th overall pick

The 2nd worst thing that can happen is getting the 3rd overall pick. The 3rd worst thing? Yep, you got it, the 2nd overall pick. The 4th worst thing? Getting 1st overall. I’m okay with these odds. Sometimes the odds go for you and against you. Hopefully, it goes for the Kings this time around.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 1, 2009 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions

All this talk about balls

I’m quite uncomfortable.

Never forget: I am a complete idiot

by Exhibit G on May 1, 2009 1:33 PM PDT reply actions

You could burn Peaches in effigy

And get over it.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 1, 2009 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions

Great idea we need to reach out to the pagan gods with a virgin sacrifice

once again, sorry Pookey

www.mancancook.net

by vfettke on May 1, 2009 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions

You just want to pick on me today don't you?

It’s like, I made fun of your pregnant GF or something.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 1, 2009 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions

My GF isn't pregnant

my wife is… and since I’m going to hell for that one I might as well sell my soul to the devil now so we can draft both Griffin and Rubio

www.mancancook.net

by vfettke on May 1, 2009 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions

You married her last week in Reno? Congratulations!

Seriously, sorry. You’re not going to hell. You’re already there, sir. Crap. Sorry, again.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 1, 2009 3:33 PM PDT up reply actions

Haha

I’m in hell? You’re the one who has to plead with Jehovah’s Witnesses and then be our virgin sacrifice.

www.mancancook.net

by vfettke on May 1, 2009 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions

And not to mention your fondness for he/shes

www.mancancook.net

by vfettke on May 1, 2009 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions

Whoa what did I miss?

Or are we going off of Pookey’s “Howard Stern looks sexier than Ailene Voisin” comment?

by Aykis16 on May 1, 2009 9:07 PM PDT up reply actions

No we're just being smartasses as per usual

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 2, 2009 2:44 AM PDT up reply actions

Lets make something simple complicated.

Why does everything to do with the NBA have to be so damn. They obviously have taken a government playbook and initiated into the NBA. You pratically need an MBA to figure out salary caps for all the teams.

I have a sinking feeling some lawyers have ensured they will always have work because the average “Joe” wouldn’t have the time or patience to figure out half the BS.

by nothingbutnet on May 1, 2009 3:03 PM PDT reply actions

We could just get rid of the salary cap completely and pay an unproven rooki $40 million

www.mancancook.net

by vfettke on May 1, 2009 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions

Well, the NFL manages to do that WITH a salary cap.

So no need to get rid of it if that’s your goal.

by cabz on May 1, 2009 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions

You have completely missed the point.

I fully understand the need to have salary caps and parameters with respect to rookies etc.
The point is mid level exceptions, biannual exceptions, rookie exceptions, Larry Bird exceptions, disabled player exceptions, traded player exceptions, waivers, luxury taxes, sign and trade agreements all make the system more complicated than it ought to be.

To fully understand all the parameters, one has to do a fair amount of research.

Confusion with respect to trade possibilities constantly comes up on this site, thus I am quite sure I am not the only one who doesn’t have a 100% clear grasp on this matter.

I am glad you fully understand the system unfortunately many of us idiots struggle at times to determine what and what is not possible.

Getting back to my main point, why not just have 14 balls in the hopper.

By the way what does simplifying the lottery system have to do with paying a rookie 40 million. Is there something going on between the lines that I have missed??

Bottom line is I just hate bureaucracy

by nothingbutnet on May 2, 2009 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions

A lot of things were put in by the owners & players

This stuff was collectively bargained. I have no real issue with it, even if you feel it is unnecessarily complicated.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 2, 2009 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions

You missed the point

If the teams didn’t need lawyers to figure out who they could trade for than there would be hundreds more lawyers out of work. And, you know who that would mean, don’t you.

WE’D HAVE HUNDREDS MORE LAWYERS GOING INTO POLITICS. SHUTTER TO THINK.

"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom

by HighTops on May 3, 2009 12:10 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

LOL @ that HT

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 3, 2009 6:33 AM PDT up reply actions

Perfect

by nothingbutnet on May 3, 2009 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions

The CBA isn't that hard to understand

There are some difficult nuances to understand though.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 1, 2009 3:34 PM PDT up reply actions

I think that Basketball has the best contractual agreements in Sports

It help keeps an even playing field between some of the richer franchises and the little teams. The divide in Win correlations for big market teams and small market teams is not the big in the NBA. In Baseball for example, the rich teams have a much higher win correlation since they can literally outspend their competition (see Yankees, New York)

by Aykis16 on May 2, 2009 11:28 PM PDT up reply actions

It's necessary, because 1st round draft picks have a greater impact in the NBA than any other sport.

"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom

by HighTops on May 3, 2009 12:12 AM PDT up reply actions

Pretty much what HT said

One player is pretty much all it takes to get to the playoffs.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 3, 2009 6:30 AM PDT up reply actions

There should be more team options

I hate most of the MLE (it should be shorter at least)
rookie scale should be less
I mostly hate the teenagers making millions to learn basic basketball on my dime – then wanting 10s of millions as soon as they start getting decent.
etc
(though I agree baseball has probs as well- not that it seems to pay off as much for yankees as it should)

So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on May 3, 2009 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions

How much did A-Rod get for 4 at bats a game?

MLE- can be for 1 yr up to 5 yrs. The dollar amount is equal to the aver. salary of all NBA players. The team can choose to pay any amount up to the Max of the exemption which this yr is $5.5M, and the Max can be divided up among multiple player contracts.

The MLE is like your banking account overdraft protection. If the GM doen’t want to go over the salary cap, he doesn’t have to do it.

Before Rookie scale contracts, rookie could hold out and force the teams to pay a lot more.
And, except for the $400K difference between 1st & 2nd, most of the scale from pick 8 down to 30 are in $100K incremets or less. So, only the top 7 get substantial jumps in pay which is how it should be.

Don’t blame the teenagers, blame the owners willing to pay such ungodly amounts to teenagers. And , without the influx of new blood, the NBA wouldn’t exist. Besides it’s the lure of big money that keeps the teenagers interested. Without the money they’d all go off to college and become Lawyers, where the real money is.

"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom

by HighTops on May 3, 2009 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions

I hate lawyers (no offense to anyone who is one)

there are just too many in the world.

"Greed is the inventor of injustice as well as the current enforcer." - Julian Casablancas

by submison on May 3, 2009 3:49 PM PDT up reply actions

Outta curiosity (Vf or TZ or whomever)

Would the Bullets ping pong balls start with a combination 2-3-4-5, 2-3-4-6, 2-3-4-5, and all the way up to the last potential combination. I feel so smart now. I have an idea of what each team’s combinations are. Yay! me!

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 1, 2009 3:36 PM PDT reply actions

Do we know for certain that all of the combos with a 1 go to us?

if so then that would be the logical conclusion

That also probably makes it easier for the NBA too. If we have all the combos with the 1 ball and the first ball they draw is a 1 do they just stop and give us the pick?

www.mancancook.net

by vfettke on May 1, 2009 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions

Is it logical?

Math people, help us out here!

Seems to me that if the second team got all the combinations that begin with a 2, they would have equal odds as us…

Never forget: I am a complete idiot

by Exhibit G on May 1, 2009 4:29 PM PDT up reply actions

Yeah, it's not that.

The Bullets’ combos would start with those last 15 “1” combos that LPA mentioned above. If you look at the numbers on the list we’re using up a good portion of the “2s” All your “1-2s” belong to us.

And then they’d use up the rest of the “2s” and into the “3s” if necessary to get their required number of combos.

Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott

by Kfan in Korea on May 1, 2009 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions

No, there are 285 combos that begin with 1 and we only get the first 250.

If you follow the link at the bottom of TZ’s post, you will see the #‘s for the second worst team. They get some one’s and some 2’s.

"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom

by HighTops on May 1, 2009 10:51 PM PDT up reply actions

Like I said before,

this stuff ain’t complicated… ha ha ha

by nothingbutnet on May 3, 2009 12:01 PM PDT up reply actions

Too bad we're getting the 4th pick huh?

by Aykis16 on May 1, 2009 9:09 PM PDT reply actions

We're not getting the 4th pick

A clerical error will result in the Kings being skipped.

by propane on May 2, 2009 12:19 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Did anyone see the disclaimer at the end of that list of numbers on the link web page?

“Michael Zarren is the Celtics’ Basketball Operations Analyst, responsible for assisting team decisionmaking through the use of quantitative and legal analyses. Neither he nor the Celtics endorses or recommends any illegal act in support of the Celtics’ chances in this year’s draft lottery”

Man, that is weird. Do they really need to make that disclaimer? Have they had a problem with this in the past? Haven’t Celtic fans sold their souls to the Devil many times over already? Is David Stern the Devil?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6CARPuq4Bew

Another year, another chance to hope for the team !!

by FaStRmAn on May 2, 2009 12:42 AM PDT reply actions

Not that this bullshit again

Yeah, it sucked. The Kings still lost the series dammit.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 2, 2009 3:05 AM PDT up reply actions

So the big question is, will the Kings have the balls to draft Rubio :)

"The playoffs now are my grind. My grind for a championship,'' Roy said. "Whatever needs to be done to get there I'm gonna do it.''

by Norsktroll on May 2, 2009 3:28 AM PDT reply actions

Petrie has the balls

The question is whether the ping pong balls agree with him.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 2, 2009 4:01 AM PDT up reply actions

That...

and the greed of his current team. He still hasn’t negotiated a manageable buyout, has he? Have there been any recent reports regarding how far along they are in negotiations?

by cabz on May 2, 2009 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions

No

But there won’t be. You can expect this to go down to the wire. Rubio can pull out of the draft if he feels it wise. (If I was advising him, I wouldn’t advise such an action.) In fact, he can do it twice before a third time which would make it official.

Personally, I think this is a matter of perspective for him and his family. If you factor what he’s making in Europe, and what he would make in the NBA minus his buyout, it’s still considerably more to play in the NBA. That’s why he has such a high buyout, and that’s why his European club probably won’t budge. They don’t have to. They’re in a win-win position here.

Dan Fegan is trying to play the “he’ll be unhappy” card, but it won’t work. It won’t work because no team is stupid enough to believe that. It only hurts Rubio in the future to play as if DKJ Joventut is trying to fuck with his future yanno?

No matter what, that’s the bottom line.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 2, 2009 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions

If he stays in and can't negotiate something decent

He can also stay in Spain another year. He has nothing to lose really. I wonder if that would be enough to drop him down a few spots?

So imitate the action of the tiger!.
- lend the eye a terrible aspect
and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on May 2, 2009 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions

if he stays in the old country another season

it ups the ante in bust potential and injury risk but will add another much needed year of maturity.

It is another notch on the Kings pity post. The Kings get the #2 (or #1) pick and use it on RRubio but he stays in Europe and never comes over or gets injured. Pick your poison.

by betweentheeyes on May 2, 2009 4:05 PM PDT up reply actions

He was getting paid 80,000 Euros this season

and the gave him a raise to 160k. All they need to do is get the owner to take his 6 mil buyout over 2 years and Ricky will be making more cash. If you’re the owner would you rather have 3 mil this year and 3 mil next year or 6 mil next year? It’ll get done. But they will wait to see if they can get the other side to blink.

Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott

by Kfan in Korea on May 2, 2009 4:50 PM PDT up reply actions

Exactly

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 2, 2009 5:12 PM PDT up reply actions

How many games a yr does DKV play?

In the Spanish league & the Euroleague? Maybe 50 if they get to the Euro Championships. Do you really believe that the revenue that his team will lose if he buys out, will be greater than the buyout fee.

I’ll bet that they can cut the buyout fee in half and still make more money than if he stays.

"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom

by HighTops on May 3, 2009 12:20 AM PDT up reply actions

The owner claims he's not interested in a settlement

(an article from a few weeks ago) – we’ll see

So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on May 3, 2009 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions

Typical first ploy at the beginning of any negotiation

Earlier there was a news story that said DKV was in financial trouble and was considering selling Rubio’s contract to a Russian team. They don’t have to worry about equal contract of salary caps, they’re strictly business.

So, it will come down to the amount. How much more money will Rubio bring in through increased ticket sales vs how much is the buyout. If Rubio sells $4M more in ticket sales staying, but they turn down $6M from the buy out, then they lose $2M. Not going to happen.

"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom

by HighTops on May 3, 2009 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions