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Modeling Kevin Martin

A few months ago, intrigued by Mr. Thompson's growth, I looked at his compiled statistics in his rookie year up to then and tried to figure what NBA player those statistics resembled.  I thought the same kind of exercise with resident star Kevin Martin might be interesting.

Star-divide

Statistics used (courtesy of BasketballReference):

  • PER - Player Efficiency Rating, 15 is league average
  • TS% - True Shooting Percentage
  • ORtg - Offensive Rating, higher is better
  • DRtg - Defensive Rating, lower is better

I discarded Kevin's rookie year because he played so little.  The other three years of his career look like this:

Kevin Martin 

Age PER TS% ORtg DRtg
23 20.1 .614 120 109
24 21 .618 121 112
25 19.2 .601 115 117

 

Comp 1

Age PER TS% ORtg DRtg
23 15.7 .602 118 112
24 20.8 .645 124 113
25 21.2 .650 130 114

 

This player was a 5-time All-Star, certainly in the discussion for the greatest pure shooter ever.  When he was 25 years old, he had his greatest statistical season and his 65% TS% led the NBA.  It is interesting to note how bad his defensive statistics were; in these years this player's team was pretty bad.  Kevin's shooting numbers aren't quite as good as this guy, but he is reasonably close.  I think we all believe Kevin hasn't had his best season yet.  Its interesting to note this player's defensive rating got significantly better as he got older and his team got better.  You'd recognize Comp 1 as Reggie Miller.

 

Comp 2 

Age PER TS% ORtg DRtg
24 17.4 .568 106 102
25 17.6 .540 108 104
26 18 .536 106 107

 

This player is remembered as one of the most consistent and dangerous scorers of his generation as well as being a very bad defender.  A trade when he was 26 years old moved him to a fast paced team, and really set his career on fire; his PER peaked at 24.1 when he was 29 years old.  This player was not a 3 point threat, only making 18 total despite scoring over 25,000 points in his NBA career.  Of interest in his profile, when this player moved to a terrible defensive team, his defensive stats also became terrible, in the range of Kevin's current stats.  Bill Simmons recently used this guy as an example of one of the worst defenders of all time.  However, this guy was an 8-time All-Star, borderline Hall-of-Famer, and everyone hopefully recognizes the name of Comp 2, Alex English.

 

I'm not really saying I think Kevin will be quite as good as either Reggie Miller or Alex English; though he is close.  So far he has been very, very close to Reggie in terms of scoring, but clearly he's not quite there. 

For Alex English, the thing about his career is its consistency and how he got slightly better almost every year, to his peak at age 29.  The truly amazing part is at age 35, he played 82 games, almost 3000 minutes and had a PER of 19.0.

I do think this analysis should make us feel a little better about Kevin's defensive issues.  Both of these players were better individual defenders when they had a better supporting cast, the logic seems straightforward.  That's not making any excuses for Martin; clearly defense needs to become a focus for improvement, but you can see how it would work.

The one major caveat to this analysis is, both Miller and English were extraordinarily durable, which Kevin has not been.

So this is my open appeal to Geoff Petrie.  Kevin Martin is pretty damn special, you have two years to surround him with some actual NBA players.  Spencer was a hell of a start, JT last year looks legit, we have a top 4 pick and some other pieces to be hopeful about.  We need to have a legit NBA team around him in the next two years as he enters his prime.

 

(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)

Comment 54 comments  |  5 recs  | 

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Interesting work

The Alex English comparison is an intriguing one, once you discount the difference in scoring methods.

by Tom Ziller on May 15, 2009 11:40 AM PDT reply actions  

One thing I forgot to add

If you were going to sum up Alex English’ s scoring in one word, a decent choice would be: crafty, and I think Kevin has a lot of that in his game also. That’s what made me choose Alex English to compare against.

The ultimate victory in competition is derived from the inner satisfaction of knowing that you have done your best and that you have gotten the most out of what you had to give…Howard Cosell

by ForThree on May 15, 2009 11:49 AM PDT reply actions  

Very Cool Read

On a day where it was sorely needed. Thanks, FT.

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on May 15, 2009 1:08 PM PDT reply actions  

Good job

But I’m not one that has ever doubted KMs value and still think the Reggie Miller comparison may become more widespread once a better team is around him.

So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on May 15, 2009 2:04 PM PDT reply actions  

I don't think K-mart should be compared to Reggie

until he gains the ability to take over games and ask for the ball in clutch situations. He’s a great scorer, but it doesn’t seem like he’s taken the next step and upped his game in big game situations. To me, THAT is Martin’s biggest weakness and the reason he hasn’t been made an All-Star yet.

Father of the "Natt this!" movement.

by Aykis16 on May 15, 2009 8:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

Peja is a better comparison at this time IMO.

Age – PER – TS% – ORtg – DRtg
23 - 18.4 – .576 – 113 – 102
24 – 19.3 – .592 – 115 – 104
25 – 19.6 – .600 – 117 – 101

Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott

by Kfan in Korea on May 15, 2009 9:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

I like Peja as a comparison

because although both Peja and K-Mart can score, and in bunches, neither seems to have the “take-over-the-game” mentality.

Father of the "Natt this!" movement.

by Aykis16 on May 15, 2009 9:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yep

I hope Kevin can take the next step, but right now I put him firmly in Peja-ville. Great scorer, very nice to have as a 2nd or 3rd guy on a contending team, but if he’s your best player, you’re not very good.

Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott

by Kfan in Korea on May 15, 2009 10:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

I agree to a certain extent

I think Kevin has somewhat more of that inclination to take over games than Peja though. Peja truly is someone that converts chances created for him at a great rate, but doesn’t create his own opportunities. Kevin would be tremendous is anyone else on the team could actually get him some open shots consistently, but also has better ability to create on his own.

I think Peja is a great comp, but to me he sets the low end of expectations. I don’t expect Kevin to be quite as good as the guys I compared him to, though of course I hope, but I do expect he’s going to be better than Peja, based on his work to date.

The ultimate victory in competition is derived from the inner satisfaction of knowing that you have done your best and that you have gotten the most out of what you had to give…Howard Cosell

by ForThree on May 16, 2009 7:42 AM PDT up reply actions  

Right about now

I’d be happy to model Gregg Popovich or someone else who might light a fire under Kevin’s ass. Of course, if he does that, Kevin might miss 20 games with a sore ass. Kind of like peanut brittle.

"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."

by coolcatreportdotcom on May 16, 2009 12:23 AM PDT reply actions  

Gotta have some help man

GO PROZAC!
(or whatever is in vogue right now)

So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on May 16, 2009 12:28 AM PDT up reply actions  

We can always count on you

to bring some negativity to the conversation. At least you never fail to deliver CC

by eduardo_m7 on May 16, 2009 12:40 AM PDT up reply actions  

and he always delivers the same message

DOOM

"We are in the business of kicking butt and business is very, very good." - Charles Barkley

by Bluejohn on May 16, 2009 1:36 AM PDT up reply actions  

Well, he IS a Rockets fan

Question: What kind of bear is best?

by otis29 on May 16, 2009 7:58 AM PDT up reply actions  

LOL OTis

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 16, 2009 8:04 AM PDT up reply actions  

I do like the Rockets

and hope the Kings use them as a role model for advancing through the ranks to greater glory.

A couple weeks ago there was a lot of snarky sarcasm about the Rockets (will they have a parade for getting out of the first round, etc.). Now? Silence and maybe even some grudgling respect.

Regardless of what happens Sunday, that franchise is heading in the right direction. The jury will be out on the Kings for a while in that regard, but at least they can’t get much worse.

"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."

by coolcatreportdotcom on May 16, 2009 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

You are really delusional, right?

There’s silence because the only one talking about the Rockets here is YOU; hell not even Rockets talk, it’s all Ron Artest talk that you spit out. If you are gone, this stays a Sacramento Kings blog which is, I think, what StR is (I could be wrong though).

And please don’t mistake not liking the Rockets with not liking YOUR constant love for Ron Artest, who’s in another team last time I checked. And just so you feel better, no one is an Artest hater here… we just realize that he is not, nor he would be, a good fit in this rebuilding team. The guy is a great player but he doesn’t do good with losing, and that’s where this team is. Please do us a favor and just stop with all this crap. You’ve proven to bring really good stuff to the table when you are not talking about Artest haters and all that. One last point on that, I think you qualify as a Kevin Martin hater so look at your own posts and realize what hating really is.

Now, onto some smart talk. I agree that Houston is headed in the right direction, and I think we gotta give a lot of credit to Darril Morey (?) and Rick Adelman. It’s too bad that they have to deal with injuries to their big playersyear in and year out, they would be championship contenders if they didn’t have the injury bug hitting them every year. I’m not sure about following the model because they have two stars, and that’s hard to get, but I Iike the idea of getting those hustle payers that know their roles and stick to that to help the team.

by eduardo_m7 on May 16, 2009 1:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

It's Daryl Morey

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 16, 2009 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

Thnks Pookey

I was too lazy to look it up. Almost gt it right though

by eduardo_m7 on May 16, 2009 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

We knew whom you were referring to ed

That’s what really counts I suppose.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 16, 2009 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

It's still good to get it right

I don’t like when people mispell names. I don’t like guessing who they are talking about. More of a personal thing.

By the way, now that I have your attention. I’m hoping Rubio tweets something about his injury so that I can make it a fanshot.

by eduardo_m7 on May 16, 2009 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

LOL Okay

He probably won’t, and it’s likely to go through his team. It really only matters if he doesn’t play in the 2nd game of the series.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 16, 2009 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

That last paragraph saved you

because what preceded it was useless drivel.

I wasn’t necessarily talking about the two stars, which Morey inherited, but the assembling of the hustle pieces that are physical and can still play pretty good ball. We always seem to dump those kind of guys when we do manage to latch on to them.

"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."

by coolcatreportdotcom on May 16, 2009 4:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

"Saved me" and "useless drivel"

I try so hard to respect idiots like you. It’s kinda tough though. You win sir, one less Artest hater you have to worry about.

by eduardo_m7 on May 16, 2009 5:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

You're only an idiot cuz you're a stupid Mexican ed

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 16, 2009 6:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

God, I hope not
… hope the Kings use them as a role model for advancing …

The window for the Rockets is nearly closed. Most of their top players are beyond their peak(27-28 years old) and breaking down. They are over the cap and will be over the tax threshold even if they can resign Ron without giving him a raise.

If getting a number 1 pick and then floundering around in mediocrity for 5 years not making it out of the 1st round of the playoffs, then finally getting past the 1st round as their nucleus is 29-30 years old leaving a max 2-3 year window to do anything before their injury plagued stars completely break down is your idea of the ideal model that you want the Kings to emulate, then I don’t know what to say.

Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott

by Kfan in Korea on May 16, 2009 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

As noted above

Morey inherited most of what you’re talking about, and I think his approach will be better for reloading on the fly.

"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."

by coolcatreportdotcom on May 16, 2009 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

If you're not counting how they got their core

then I don’t see the relevance to the King’s situation at all.

Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott

by Kfan in Korea on May 16, 2009 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

Because I am talking about what Morey has done

By the way, their “core” guys are currently wearing suits. What’s on the floor are all Morey’s guys.

I guess if you really want to equate it to the Kings, you’d ask what he would do now if he was the Kings GM or would have done over the past three seasons that is different than what Petrie has done.

"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."

by coolcatreportdotcom on May 16, 2009 5:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

You're the one that said

you hoped the Kings would use the Rockets as a role model.

I don’t see any relevance.

Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott

by Kfan in Korea on May 16, 2009 6:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

Morey's Kings vs. Petrie's Kings
What’s on the floor are all Morey’s guys. I guess if you really want to equate it to the Kings, you’d ask what he would do now if he was the Kings GM or would have done over the past three seasons that is different than what Petrie has done.

Obviously one of the first questions is where do you start. Let’s say Morey had been appointed GM right before the Artest decision. Would he have resigned him? Tough question.

"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."

by coolcatreportdotcom on May 17, 2009 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm interested

To see where Ron-Ron ends up next, and if CCR ends up buying a new jersey.

Question: What kind of bear is best?

by otis29 on May 17, 2009 7:23 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah

expiring contract this summer. Will the Rockets bite? Can good Ron shut up bad Ron long enough to earn more than the mid-level exception? Who else is eyeing this juicy bait of a swingman?
Can Ron-Ron push the blazers over the top*? Can Ron-Ron bring the Cavaliers all the way back down? Can Ron-Ron replace Lamar Odom in the triangle? Can Bill get an endorsement deal for government cheese?
The suspense is killing me.

If mentioning the B word brings all those kids from Bedge here to party, I apologize. I know not what I do.

Donte? Donte'! Donté?!?!
'spect da 'xtra E'

by iashwash on May 17, 2009 10:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

Portland should consider it

So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on May 17, 2009 6:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

Houston is headed in the right direction

But if they try to rely on Ron-Ron as a team leader, they aren’t getting where they ultimately want to go.

Hell, I have a lot of respect for the Rockets – they’ve taken the Lakers to 7 in spite of Ron-Ron’s subpar play on both ends of the court. I’ve seen nothing from Artest in this series that we weren’t already used to in Sacramento – poor shooting, and especially poor shot selection – subpar man defense and minimal rebounding.

Scola, Battier and Brooks are leading that team right now, and Adelman’s done a great job of minimizing Artest’s negative impact on the floor.

Question: What kind of bear is best?

by otis29 on May 17, 2009 7:22 AM PDT up reply actions  

I can understand

how as a Kings fan, you haven’t watched any of the games because the Kings aren’t playing, and “true” Kings fans aren’t supposed to be interested in anything other than the Kings.

Artest shot very well in the first two games and OK in the third, but he hasn’t shot well at all in the last three. He has cut down his shots to an acceptable level and the Rockets have won two of those three games.

His rebounding has never been his strength, but he’s averaging five a game and had 10 in game 4. He’s averaging his typical four assists a night, 17 points, gettting some steals, and probably most importantly, staying in the game.

He’s averaged 43 minutes in the team’s three wins in the playoffs, so I am assuming Adelman sees some value in him that you don’t. There is no doubt, though, that Adelman has done a great job in getting Artest and the whole team to blend together well.

Subpar man defense? Hmmm, that’s the real tipoff you aren’t watching the games.

The bottom line for the Rockets: it isn’t about Artest, it’s about the team. And he’s an integral part of that effort.

As Rockets owner Leslie Alexander told the Houston Chronicle Saturday afternoon:
"I admire this team as much as any team I’ve ever had. To persevere like they have, losing their two best players, a lot of teams quit. This team is all about pride and heart, and I admire them greatly."

Wouldn’t it be great if someone could say that about the Kings on a regular basis?

"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."

by coolcatreportdotcom on May 17, 2009 8:35 AM PDT up reply actions  

Check out the playoff game threads
as a Kings fan, you haven’t watched any of the games because the Kings aren’t playing

I’ve watched them all. I think most of us have. But we’re not watching them through Artest-colored glasses like you.

Ok, people, let's generate all the good Karma we can until May 19. Then you can go back to your shallow and empty lifestyles.

by LeaguePassAddict on May 17, 2009 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions  

But
But we’re not watching them through Artest-colored glasses like you.

you’re obviously reading them through Artest(hater)-colored glasses.

I’ve always pointed out the good and bad in Ron’s play as well as the impact of “the other stuff.” I just happen to think the good outweighs the bad. Most here apparently disagree.

"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."

by coolcatreportdotcom on May 17, 2009 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

But it's all you talk about

Therefore it is a reasonable assumption that it’s all you care about.

Ok, people, let's generate all the good Karma we can until May 19. Then you can go back to your shallow and empty lifestyles.

by LeaguePassAddict on May 18, 2009 9:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

BTW, the hater things is really stupid. Not wanting him on the Kings does not make me a hater. Thinking he’s a little nuts does not make me a hater.

If I said he was a completely unskilled hack who thinks he’s the second coming of Michael Jordan, that would make me a hater.

But seeing as I’ve never said that…

Ok, people, let's generate all the good Karma we can until May 19. Then you can go back to your shallow and empty lifestyles.

by LeaguePassAddict on May 18, 2009 9:08 AM PDT up reply actions  

Hater

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 18, 2009 9:31 AM PDT up reply actions  

I've watched them all

Ron’s been a non-factor for the majority of the series. And Adelman has to play him since he’s plumb run out of warm bodies.

But I guess we don’t really need to spend much more time on this. Artest is a middle of the road player these days, as his 15.64 PER this past season shows. Gee, I wish Kevin Martin could produce that kind of PER…oh wait, he exceeded that by quite a bit.

Boy, I guess Ron-Ron would really have helped the Kings this season!

/sarcasm off

Question: What kind of bear is best?

by otis29 on May 17, 2009 2:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

By the way

Just checked the ESPN stats, and Ron-Ron is ranked 73rd in PER during the playoffs, at just over 13.

So he’s actually performed worse during the playoffs than the regular season. Although he did piss off Kobe a few times, so he’s got that going for him – which is nice.

Looking back, maybe Adelman should have left him on the bench a bit more.

Question: What kind of bear is best?

by otis29 on May 17, 2009 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

going to be interesting to see what happens

this off-season and next season. We know Ron wants 14 mil or so, but the Rockets only have around 7 mil to offer before they are in luxury tax danger. How will Ron play next year if he has to resign with Houston for 6-7 million? Will anyone offer him more than that?

Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott

by Kfan in Korea on May 17, 2009 6:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

Artest to Knicks rumors

Starting in 5-4-3-2-1…

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on May 17, 2009 7:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

It's going to be one of those

“Number of years” versus “dollars per year” argument I think. Kind of like the Manny Ramirez negotiations this past baseball offseason, but with a far less talented player.

We’ll have to see what his demands are once the real negotiations begin. Scary thing is, Ron-Ron is neither worth $14 million per year, nor anything longer than a 2 year contract IMO.

Good luck to the team that makes an offer in excess of either of those parameters.

Question: What kind of bear is best?

by otis29 on May 18, 2009 9:17 AM PDT up reply actions  

All I know is I'm glad that it isn't the Kings doing that

And that the man whom the original fanpost was regarding, is locked up at a reasonable rate under the money amount, but over the year amount.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 18, 2009 9:31 AM PDT up reply actions  

You may be right

64 games is a lot of games to have missed over the past four years. Not as many as 76 (Ron Artest), but a lot nonetheless.

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on May 16, 2009 8:18 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

behavior is a part of the skills package

and I think we can all agree that his personality is injured.

We look at Ron-Ron and we know he is a melt down away – he can be rehab-ed but is a continued risk. It is not that diffrent than Baron Davis’ bum knees.

by betweentheeyes on May 17, 2009 2:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

We have yet to see

Kevin Martin play, (significantly) on a winning, playoff caliber team. He may in fact, pick up his defense if he has a team around him that does the same. The only concern I have with Martin is his inability to close out games and be a playmaker. He is not Reggie Miller in that aspect. Injuries too have been a problem K-Mart. Is his ankle ever going to heal?

"You can get a good look at a T-bone by sticking your head up a bulls ass, but wouldn't you rather take a butchers word for it?"

by Sac King on May 16, 2009 9:08 AM PDT reply actions  

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