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Draft Boarding: A Viable Tool For Gaining Intelligence, Or Inhumane Torture?

Multiplicity80_medium

section214 builds his draft board. Not shown: ouija board, darts, ritalin.

 

When a noted sage such as Jerry Reynolds says that mock drafts are a waste of time, well sir, that’s good enough for me.   As the days and weeks and months and years of time march on, Jerry Reynolds is a consistent source of good information, good humor, and good will.  Reynolds has commented on more than one occasion that most mocks are put together with little first-hand information, spit, nails, wire, and blind-arse guesses (paraphrasing here – Jerry would never use the word “arse” publicly). Not only that, a lot of the information that is available is actually misinformation, driven by unscrupulous NBA franchises and their minions. In short, mock drafts are not worth the paper that they are printed upon.

As usual, I agree with Jerry 100%. Of course, this has not kept me from manufacturing mock drafts in the past. And as hard as I have tried, my lists have fallen neatly within Mr. Reynolds’ opinions as it pertains to mock drafts – they are dreck (ask your Yiddish-speaking friends for translation).

My biggest problem with mock drafts is every time you’re wrong, you’re wrong twice. If you take Michael Beasley #1 and the Bulls take Derrick Rose, you’re also going to be wrong having Rose going to the Heat #2. And a Jason Thompson can throw the whole thing out of whack.

So for this year, I have compiled a draft board that puts these guys in draft ranges. I figure that Blake Griffin goes in the top two picks, so I give him a range of 1-2. Brilliant! I’m covered, even if Ricky Rubio claims the #1 slot. Section, you magnificent bastard!

My list is 37 players deep, so even if 15% of this list drops out of the draft, 31 players will remain. Hey, we have a pick at #31…how convenient.

Now I am certain that I have missed several players that could be deserving of this list, but it’s my list, so there. You gotta problem, go make your own list. And this list is not to run in conflict with the StR draft board. The StR draft board is based on what we want and think. My board is based on a lot of game film and literature and alcohol-fueled conjecture. It really has no Kings bias to it.

Once you begin to dig into the list (if I have not lost you already), you will see that I have 8 players that I think are locks for the lottery – all of the players listed from Griffin through Demar DeRozan. I’ve got 14 more guys that could potentially go in the lottery (Stephen Curry through Wayne Ellington), although 8 of them ultimately will fall outside of the top 14 picks, and some of them could fall as far as the end of the 1st round.

Last but not least, while I do have these guys in a numerical order, it is in no way a mock draft. I am not marrying any player to any team, and any player could jump over another player within their bisecting range areas. It's really a whole lotta nothing, which makes it either a Seinfeld episode or a signature section214 piece.

Anyhoo, it’s a list. And a list is always worth picking apart. Have at it, and be merciless with your thread commentary. It’s the only way to convey to me that you truly care.

 #  NAME POS HT WT AGE DRAFT RANGE
1 Griffin, Blake PF  6-10  250 20  1 - 2 
2 Rubio, Ricky PG  6-4  180 18  1 - 4 
3 Thabeet, Hasheem C  7-3  265 22  2 - 7 
4 Hill, Jordan PF  6-10  235 21  3 - 8 
5 Harden, James SG  6-5  220 19  3 - 8 
6 Jennings, Brandon PG  6-1  170 19  4 - 12 
7 Evans, Tyreke SG  6-5  195 19  4 - 12 
8 DeRozan, Demar SG  6-7  210 19  4 - 13 
9 Curry, Stephen PG  6-3  185 21  5 - 17 
10 Clark, Earl SF  6-9  220 21  6 - 18 
11 Lawson, Ty PG  6-0  195 21  6 - 18 
12 Henderson, Gerald SG  6-5  215 21  7 - 19 
13 Johnson, James PF  6-8  235 22  7 - 19 
14 Flynn, Johnny PG  6-0  170 20  10 - 22 
15 Maynor, Eric PG  6-2  175 21  11 - 23 
16 Holiday, Jrue PG  6-3  185 18  8 - 24 
17 Blair, DeJuan PF  6-7  265 20  11 - 23 
18 Williams, Terrence SG  6-6  220 21  13 - 25 
19 Teague, Jeff PG  6-2  180 20  14 - 26 
20 Mullens, BJ C  7-0  260 20  14 - 28 
21 Budinger, Chase SF  6-7  220 21  12 - 28 
22 Ellington, Wayne SG  6-5  190 21  12 - 28 
23 Daye, Austin SF  6-10  190 20  18 - 34 
24 Brown, Derrick PF  6-7  225 21  18 - 34 
25 Mills, Patrick PG  6-0  175 20  18 - 34 
26 Lawal, Gani PF  6-8  235 20  20 - 36 
27 Young, Sam SF  6-6  210 23  20 - 36 
28 Calathes, Nick PG  6-5  185 20  21 - 41 
29 Collison, Darren PG  6-1  165 21  21 - 41 
30 Hansbrough, Tyler PF  6-9  230 23  23 - 43 
31 Claver, Victor SF  6-10  220 20  24 - 44 
32 Casspi, Omri SF  6-8  220 20  24 - 44 
33 James, Damion PF  6-7  225 21  24 - 44 
34 Gibson, Taj PF  6-9  210 23  27 - 52 
35 Thornton, Marcus SG  6-4  200 21  27 - 52 
36 Siummers, DaJuan SF  6-8  240 21  27 - 52 
37 Smith, Tyler SF  6-7  210 22  28 - 53 

Comment 19 comments  |  1 recs  | 

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I like it, you do a good job of predicting the draft like a carny fortune teller.

I guess I have one question:

paraphrasing here – Jerry would never use the word "arse" publicly

Did Jerry whisper this word in your while you were sitting next to him on a plane?

Hot dogs, get your hot dogs.

by jjham15 on May 17, 2009 3:11 PM PDT reply actions  

No

He slyly pointed at Peaches.

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on May 17, 2009 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

I love your list

Particularly since I lust for Derrick Brown, and he’s listed at the range for the Kings in both of their lower picks. (I also lusted a little after reading about Jarvis Varnado, but well, he’s going back to Miss St. Oh well.)

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 17, 2009 3:56 PM PDT reply actions  

Yep

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 18, 2009 12:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

Your draft ranges are so wide that its probably not that far off.

I say take a risk, and your pick has to have a range between a 4 slot range.

Actually it is your list so do whatever the hell you want.

We ought to figure out some sort of pool that STR can participate in. Might add to the excitement on draft day.

by nothingbutnet on May 17, 2009 4:08 PM PDT reply actions  

DeJuan Blair

will go much higher than you have him. I think he’ll be the 3rd big selected. I think he’ll go before earl clark or james johnson.

by KeonClark on May 17, 2009 4:30 PM PDT reply actions  

I like your pick of Steve at #4

sorry, Multiplicity acknowlegement only.

Lists are conjecture and conjecture brings controversy. So, let’s get to it:

Thabeet at 2-7? 3-7 more likely, though it makes no change in your order even though your order is a rank.

Interesting that in this PG heavy draft, you place three of the well known PG’s Holiday, Collison and Calathes as having the widest ranges (though I don’t understand how a 21-41 is ranked higher than a 20-41)

Fun Stuff!

by betweentheeyes on May 17, 2009 4:45 PM PDT reply actions  

Collison should have been 21-41 (since corrected)

I have Thabeet as 2-7, as I’m not convinced that all 14 lottery teams would take Rubio. In fact, there may be a lottery team or two that might have Rubio as low as #4 (note that I feel that this is a small minority view).

To KeonClark regarding Blair, do you really think that he will go higher than 11? Remember, this is about ranges, and those ranges show that it is possible that Blair goes before Clark or Johnson, so you may very well be proven right.

To nothingbutnet, I agree that some of the ranges are wide. I would have put JT in a range of 18-32 last year, and I would have been wrong. Jrue Holiday is the microcosm of this draft – some have him going in the lottery, while others have him going in the latter stage of the 1st round. I’ll use Curry as an example. I’m not sure that I am as impressed with him as I was with Rodney Stuckey a couple of years ago. As a tweener, Stuckey dropped to 15th. On the other hand, Eric Gordon was drafted 7th last year. It all comes down to what Curry does in his workouts, and those have not happened yet.

Again, don’t get too hung up on the numerical sequence. I almost opted not to number the players, as that is really not the point. Now, if you think that I’m insane for allowing Tyler Hansbrough (23-43) to intersect with Holiday (8-24), well, I think that you might just have a case.

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on May 17, 2009 5:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think there's a very good chance of Thabeet going #2

but we all know I’ve got him in my fav-5.
(I think we could pick him if we get #2)

So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on May 17, 2009 7:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

agreed

we don’t need another C
unless Hawes can play the 3

by Brian5517209 on May 17, 2009 8:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

Without disagreeing with the thought process

I would say that we need everything.

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on May 17, 2009 9:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah but it makes little sense to gamble on Thabeet that high

when you have players lower in the draft who could provide the same things. If you could get, and I’m just throwing 2 names out there, Brandon Jennings with the Kings pick at 4 (assuming they wouldn’t pick higher), and Derrick Brown at 23, you’re solving a need and probably the BPA with Jennings, and you’re solving a need with Brown at 23.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 17, 2009 9:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don't disagree

In fact, I would be disappointed if we chose him at #2. I chose Thabeet 5th on the StR board behind Griffin/Rubio/Evans/Jennings.

However, I feel safe in saying that there is at least a 1 in 14 chance that someone would grab him at #2 (ruminate on OKC if they get #2 and Griffin goes #1 – you can’t rule it out completely).

I also noticed that there are about twice as many PG’s in my top 37 than there are guys 6-10 or taller. And while that is no reason to draft big early (best player available, best player available), I’m not sure that I see eye to eye with GP when he says that this is a deep draft at PF. I almost see it as a PG and swing draft with a few notable exceptions. I do like Brown. I wish that he was a couple of inches taller. But as I’ve said, players can play, and I think that the kid just might be a player.

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on May 17, 2009 10:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yep

Exactly.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 18, 2009 12:07 AM PDT up reply actions  

What I have found

from the StR draft boarding exercise is the faithful thinks the Kings need a point guard.

"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."

by coolcatreportdotcom on May 18, 2009 4:24 AM PDT reply actions  

Wow, impressive

I hope Teague and Blair slip down to 23…

Omri Casspi reminds me a lot of Hedo. He could be a good pick at any of the ranges you mentioned. The one to watch closely is Curry, he is the wild card, not sure where he might fall, it is all dependent on his workout.

Nice Job. It will be interesting to see how the individual workouts and combine effect the order and range of a few of these players.

"You can get a good look at a T-bone by sticking your head up a bulls ass, but wouldn't you rather take a butchers word for it?"

by Sac King on May 18, 2009 9:42 AM PDT reply actions  

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