How to Read Chad Ford (And Other Draft Experts)

by Tom Ziller on May 21, 2009 6:14 PM PDT in NBA Draft

Exhibit G's parodied Chad Ford 1984 mock draft was, as you know, hilarious. But I wanted to get a bit serious for a minute, and communicate how (and why) I hang on Ford's every word. It applies to other draft experts (like DraftExpress' Jonathan Givony, for example). But since Ford is the most linked to and discussed expert around, he deserves the attention of this piece.

Anyone who has read Ford the past few years knows he is not the best basketball analyst. He has touted the skills of numerous blatantly unskilled players, Darko Milicic being the most infamous example. Ford has a poor grasp of team needs, and frankly he seems to fail to understand the vagaries of NBA analysis in general. There are times when Ford can say something about a team's or NBA player's performance that is completely wrong. He has done this with the Kings a number of times. He fundamentally misjudges the NBA often enough for it to be noticed, discussed, and parodied.

But he's a damn good one-man rumor mill. Geoff Petrie is a notoriously shrewd and silent personnel boss, so Ford rarely nails the Kings picks. But writing for FanHouse the last few years, I've intently followed Ford's rumors. And he nails so much. Every year, he probably breaks more than half the trades, promises or ranges he reports. He nails a good portion of the draft ... and he's one guy. He's already been all around the country this month, seeing Blake Griffin and James Harden and DeJuan Blair and Jrue Holiday. And he has five weeks left to firm up his sourcing, to refine his points. I imagine he talks to everyone in the business. There's no other way he could do what he does (report the draft) as well as he does.

So we have Good Chad Ford, and Crap Chad Ford. There's a method to cutting through the crap, and it is this: cut through the crap! Let's take the Kings entry in Ford's latest mock draft as an example.

[Jordan] Hill would give them toughness and energy in the frontcourt, and they could use that.

This is crap! We don't trust Ford's unsourced player evaluations. We just don't. Other sources (DX, for one) laud Hill's toughness. I see bad rebounding numbers, which indicates to me what we'll call "useless toughness." Further, Chad Ford has no clue what we need. Nothing in that statement says anything about the Kings' interest about Hill. It reads as logical to Ford, based on his read of Hill and his read of the Kings. But it means nothing.

But don't be surprised if UCLA's Jrue Holiday sneaks in here. The Kings will bring him in on Wednesday. Point guard is their biggest need and the Kings are high on Holiday.

Now we have something! "Don't be surprised" is a nice Ford rejoinder. Another way of saying "YO! Peep this ..." And saying that "the Kings are high on Holiday" means Ford has talked to someone out there that Ford believes should reasonably be in a position to know that, yes, the Kings are high on Holiday. Did he talk to a Kings source? Holiday's agent? Danny Ainge? Petrie's gardener? I don't know. But Ford's record overall is too good to assume he makes things up wholesale. Sure, maybe someone lied to him, or is playing him. That will happen, that is unavoidable.

But this is a nugget you can store in the back of your noggin. "The Kings are high on Holiday." Hmmm. Thanks, Chad. Repeat ad infinitum.

Tweet Comment 35 comments | 2 recs |

Do you like this story?

Read More: nbadraft2009, Sacramento Kings

Comments

And TZ hits another one out of the park

There should be a hall for your terrific posts, your classic posts, and your genius posts.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 21, 2009 6:22 PM PDT reply actions

Excellent points

I think that’s probably where my frustration with Chad Ford comes from. I, too, read every little nugget he throws out there. There is no questioning the fact that, for whatever reason, he has sources everywhere that trust him with information. If he could take that information and turn it into a more comprehensive analysis of team interest/team needs/player skills, he’d be a diety amongst draft fiends.

But TZ is right. He’s not perfect, but reading his columns gives you information you otherwise wouldn’t have. That’s something to be thankful for.

Never forget: I am a complete idiot

by Exhibit G on May 21, 2009 6:26 PM PDT reply actions

Superfluous?

by thelettere on May 22, 2009 7:43 AM PDT up reply actions

huh?

Never forget: I am a complete idiot

by Exhibit G on May 22, 2009 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions

SAT word

by bignerd on May 22, 2009 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions

Was Just on ESPN and Noticed Ford's Mockery of a Draft

To fill the ‘need’ Ford mentioned, I’d rather have Dejaun Blair than Jordan Hill. Not to say that I’d want either one, because picking Hill at 4 is asinine and Jordan hasn’t even been close to the radar for top 5. Which leads me to my next question:

Is Chad Ford on crack cocaine?

by bartenpa on May 21, 2009 7:25 PM PDT reply actions

i think Ford is "high on something else"

by Brian5517209 on May 21, 2009 7:27 PM PDT reply actions

Darko?

by jstnblke41 on May 22, 2009 12:41 AM PDT up reply actions

oh man, I thought it was Mikki Moore there for a second..lol

by Burrito3 on May 21, 2009 7:28 PM PDT reply actions

My reaction at first glance as well.

-sw

"I didn't go there with the intentions of getting ejected. I went there with the intentions of just telling Kobe, 'You got to relax. You're hitting the wrong person. Don't you know you're hitting Ron Artest?'" -Ron Artest, 05.06.09

by Steve Weinman on May 22, 2009 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions

Is there really a good Chad Ford?

Is it really ground breaking information that Chad knows which kid is coming to town for try outs? Most people who pay attention can read flight schedules, talk to agents, glean info from sound bites, check out MySpace pages, etc.

“The Kings are high on Holiday.” That sounds like Crap Chad Ford right there. JT came to visit at least 3 times last year and good ole’ Chad couldn’t put two and two together.

Another aspect of Chad you didn’t mention is the “throw whole lot a crap on the board and hope some sticks” aspect of his act. He’s going to print around 5000 scenarios between now and June 25th. Odds are he is going to guess right on a few.

You are brave, defending Chad Ford as competent is one hell of an up hill battle.

by bignerd on May 21, 2009 7:34 PM PDT reply actions

I'm in reruns

But I have a decent excuse.

Rocks are free, and slingshots easily stolen.

by andy sims on May 21, 2009 7:44 PM PDT reply actions 6 recs

If this doesn't go green soon

I’m really going to wonder what’s wrong with StR.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 21, 2009 8:52 PM PDT up reply actions

I had to rec it -

Just to see what color the leaf turns.

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on May 21, 2009 8:59 PM PDT up reply actions

LOL

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 21, 2009 9:03 PM PDT up reply actions

Dick Bavetta

He’s going to have to fall out all the Nuggets tonight if the Lakers keep missing there free throws.

by bignerd on May 21, 2009 8:33 PM PDT reply actions

Maybe

Maybe in his great detective work, Chad Ford read the same quote that was posting on the sactownroyalty frontpage below this one just an hour earlier. The one with Geoff Petrie declaring he is high on Holiday. Just saying.

by cbsf on May 21, 2009 9:16 PM PDT reply actions

I agree about the rumors for the other 29 teams

But Chad Ford has never shown one scintilla of evidence that he has any insight into what Petrie is going to do. Not that any other sportswriter does, but I see the Jrue Holiday speculation pulled out of the same ass as the Hill stuff.

by nbrans on May 21, 2009 10:26 PM PDT reply actions

It'll be fun

to watch the stories change as each round of players come in for workouts.

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on May 21, 2009 11:00 PM PDT up reply actions

That might be worth tracking even

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 22, 2009 7:34 AM PDT up reply actions

One change for this year

There’s another guy helping make decisions, or at least assumed to be privy to Petrie’s thinking. Said guy has likely had much contact with Ford in the past being that he comes from the other side of the aisle.

by Tom Ziller on May 22, 2009 5:22 AM PDT up reply actions

Good point

by nbrans on May 22, 2009 7:14 AM PDT up reply actions

Useless toughness?

Draftexpress lists rebounding as a strength for Hill. Lets drop that and assume that you are correct and Hill will be just a par rebounder in the NBA. Lacking huge boards doesn’t make toughness less important. I shook my head when you said that.

Otherwise a good read.

by Citadel 29 on May 22, 2009 7:00 AM PDT reply actions

Good points

Your opinions about Ford are something that was always in the back of my mind (“man, this guy has no idea what he’s talking about, but yet, he kind of does”) – well played sir.

I also hate when someone brings up one exception to the rule (Darko) and uses it to bludgeon the point home that Ford (or anyone else) doesn’t know what they’re talking about. It’s like sports equivalent of Reductio ad Hitlerum.

That being said – Tyler Hansbrough before Ty Lawson, that’s kooky talk!

by RMJ equals Hero on May 22, 2009 7:30 AM PDT reply actions

Just Darko!?!?!

Dude, Chad Ford doesn’t even bat for a .300 avg when it comes to talent evaluations. Even worse, the bigger the prospect the bigger he misses.

by bignerd on May 22, 2009 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions

Slighlty off topic

bet relevant to the workouts -

Petrie is running them, and running the players. My bet is that he is getting a charge out of this.

I saw this via a Comcast Sports Net report, given by one Jim Koozimor.

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on May 22, 2009 8:06 AM PDT reply actions

Koz has a job?

Oh my gosh! I’m shocked.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 22, 2009 8:17 AM PDT up reply actions

I still think this was pulled directly from his arse

I don’t even know how he can casually say “the Kings would have loved Griffin, Thabeet, or Rubio”, considering Thabeet is roughly the exact opposite of players that Petrie likes to draft (other than being embarrassingly “soft”, but Petrie digs soft offensive players not soft defensive players). Ditto for Hill. Geoff’s going to grab a guy that can fill it up, like he always does.

by AnotherStupidSN on May 22, 2009 9:01 AM PDT reply actions

Agree

People say Geoff Petrie cannot be read. I have to vehemently disagree.

Rule #1, the player has to posses some offensive talent.
Rule #2, he gravitates towards players with versatility.
Rule #3, the next tall, defensive oriented player lacking offensive skill he selects will be the first.

The only defensive stiff we’ve ever brought into town under Geoff was Ostertag. Greg barely saw the court and was promptly sent packing.

by bignerd on May 22, 2009 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions

Earl Clark?

Could play small forward next to JT and Hawes. Sub in Garcia or Nocioni for Hawes and he can be moved to the power forward, as JT moves to the center, or vice versa with Hawes. This kid has amazing upside, he really has the potential to be a Danny Granger caliber player. Hopefully the Kings look into him- another Louisville product from Pitino, can’t be too bad.

"You can get a good look at a T-bone by sticking your head up a bulls ass, but wouldn't you rather take a butchers word for it?"

by Sac King on May 22, 2009 3:27 PM PDT reply actions

Earl Clark

will be a nice player I think, although I don’t think Danny Granger is the right comparison. He should be a nice player in the style of Boris Diaw. He should do a lot of things for whatever team takes him and could be an important cog in any teams rotation, but I don’t think I would like him at 4.

Then again I could see Petrie liking his well rounded game so I wouldn’t be surprised if he was picked even though we don’t really need another 4 who plays like a 3.

by jstnblke41 on May 22, 2009 6:24 PM PDT up reply actions

Reported by ESPN from Chad Ford

“Two league sources said the Wizards and Thunder already had discussions about a swap of the No. 3 pick for the No. 5 pick and the Wizards’ 2008 first-rounder, JaVale McGee.”

Hopefully the Kings are in the same process of trying to move up…

"You can get a good look at a T-bone by sticking your head up a bulls ass, but wouldn't you rather take a butchers word for it?"

by Sac King on May 23, 2009 10:18 PM PDT reply actions

Incredibly smart of the Thunder if its true

It shows they probably value Harden and think they can get him at 5 and even grab a guy with an ungodly amount of upside in McGee. If the Wiz are targeting Rubio then I don’t know if I like the trade for them unless they can move Arenas.

As far as the Kings go its not a great thing that McGee is involved in the trade, because that would mean if sac does indeed try to move up that one of their important young pieces would be included too. Probably Hawes or JT.

by jstnblke41 on May 23, 2009 11:55 PM PDT up reply actions

I agree with your take

and at that price, I’d rather stay at 4 or trade down.

Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott

by Kfan in Korea on May 24, 2009 12:49 AM PDT up reply actions

Honestly

With all this talk about trading up and other teams getting involved and Rubio only wanting to go to LA or Sac and this and that, I just think we are setting ourselves up for dissapointment…. again. I really wish things would go the Kings way at least once, but at this point I just don’t know. I guess the last thing you lose truly is hope. I guess imma try to hold on to that one for another month…

by eduardo_m7 on May 24, 2009 12:57 AM PDT up reply actions