Finding the draft’s best players

by coolcatreportdotcom on May 22, 2009 4:00 AM PDT Comment 15 comments

From 1992-2006, the best player in each NBA draft as determined by career win shares (per Basketball Reference) has been available with the fourth pick of the draft roughly half the time, or in seven of the 15 drafts.

The No. 1 pick turned out to be the best player in the draft in six of the 15 years, and two other players were chosen with either the No. 2 or No. 3 pick. In 11 of the 15 years, the best player was chosen in the first six picks.

Naturally, depending on how good this draft turns out to be, the Kings should be able to land a quality player at No. 4. The real shame is missing the No. 1 pick, but once you get beyond that, it’s a crapshoot.

And this is just a look at the best players in each draft.

* 1992: Shaquille O’Neal #1

* 1993: Chris Webber #1

* 1994: Jason Kidd #2

* 1995: Kevin Garnett #5

* 1996: Kobe Bryant #13

* 1997: Tim Duncan #1

* 1998: Dirk Nowitzki #9

* 1999: Shawn Marion #9

* 2000: Hedo Turkoglu #16

* 2001: Pau Gasol #3

* 2002: Yao Ming #1

* 2003: LeBron James #1

* 2004: Dwight Howard #1

* 2005: Chris Paul #4

* 2006: Brandon Roy #6

By draft pick:

* No. 1: 6 players (O’Neal, Webber, Duncan, Ming, James, Howard).

* No. 2: 1 player (Kidd).

* No. 3: 1 player (Gasol).

* No. 4: 1 player (Paul).

* No. 5: 1 player (Garnett).

* No. 6: 1 player (Roy).

* No. 9: 2 players (Nowitzki, Marion).

* No. 13: 1 player (Bryant).

* No. 16: 1 player (Turkoglu).

Let’s look at this another way, because naturally multiple impact players can come out of the same draft. Here are the top 25 active players in win shares and where they were drafted:

1. Shaquille O’Neal: 1992 #1

2. Kevin Garnett: 1995 #5

3. Tim Duncan: 1997 #1

4. Kobe Bryant: 1996 #13

5. Dirk Nowitzki: 1998 #9

6. Dikembe Mutumbo: 1991 #4

7. Jason Kidd: 1994 #2

8. Ray Allen: 1996 #5

9. Paul Pierce: 1998 #10

10. Steve Nash: 1996 #15

11. Shawn Marion: 1999 #9

12. Allen Iverson: 1996 #1

13. Rasheed Wallace: 1995 #4

14. Chauncey Billups: 1997 #3

15. Tracy McGrady: 1997 #9

16. Vince Carter: 1998 #5

17. Grant Hill: 1994 #3

18. Michael Finley: 1995 #21

19. Ben Wallace: 1996 Undrafted

20. LeBron James: 2003 #1

21. Elton Brand: 1999 #1

22. Peja Stojakovic: 1996 #14

23. Stephon Marbury: 1996 #4

24. Rashard Lewis: 1998 #32

25. Andre Miller: 1999 #9.

Five No. 1s, one No. 2 and two No. 3s, so 17 of the 25 were still available when the No. 4 pick rolled around.

(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)

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In 2002 Amare Stoudemire was picked 9th

And he has been roughly equal to Yao throughout his career.

by mayfieldcol on May 22, 2009 6:12 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Yep, and in 2003

You have Dwayne Wade with the fifth pick, and he’s certainly no slacker.

I think Amare was No. 2 in win shares for that draft.

"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."

by coolcatreportdotcom on May 22, 2009 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd be interested to see

this list re-done to count only the win shares produced for the team that drafted the player. Shaq produced a lot of wins over his career, but I’d imagine that a fairly small percent of those were produced for the Magic. Is a draft pick really a good draft pick if the player has a great career for someone else? If Gerald Wallace ends up having a better career than Martin, Stojakovic, or Hedo (granted, this is unlikely given his propensity for injuries, but still…), would he be Petrie’s best pick?

Also, by using total career win shares, this list (especially part 2 where you’re comparing people from different drafts) seems to overvalue veterans who have spent a long time in the league. Perhaps we could look at either a player’s average win shares per season or the win shares produced in a player’s best season?

Good food for thought, though. You do well to point out that there’s a decent chance that the draft’s best player (in retrospect) will still be waiting for us at #4.

by twasserm on May 22, 2009 7:25 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs

That's an interesting twist twas

I’d be interested in that as well.

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by pookeyguru on May 22, 2009 7:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

There was a post

by the guy whose quote is part of my tagline that looked at players like that, on an average points per season basis. I’ll see if I can track that down.

As far as who gets the credit for drafting, that’s not really the point here. It’s just that a decent player should be available at No. 4. What Petrie or his successor does with that player down the road is another matter.

But If you want to take a whack at such an effort, Basketball Reference has all the data.

"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."

by coolcatreportdotcom on May 22, 2009 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Skewed a little by the fact that there are no HS

players to pick from anymore. I doubt KG or Kobe would have gone that low if they played a year of college ball. But it still gives hope. Great post!

"Shut up and Coach!"
Vfettke

by SavageBeast on May 22, 2009 8:06 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

good point

So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on May 22, 2009 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd add that last yrs draft

had so many players that it appears may become legit NBA starters its hard to say which one will ultimately be judged the best. Probably one of those years where there will be conflicting opinions about 4 or 5 guys for a long time.

So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on May 22, 2009 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well done

Nice way to look at it.

by Ziller on May 22, 2009 10:05 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Cool data

Thanks, CC

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by section214 on May 22, 2009 12:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

1. Shaquille O’Neal: 1992 #1
2. Kevin Garnett: 1995 #5
3. Tim Duncan: 1997 #1
4. Kobe Bryant: 1996 #13
5. Dirk Nowitzki: 1998 #9
6. Dikembe Mutumbo: 1991 #4
7. Jason Kidd: 1994 #2
8. Ray Allen: 1996 #5
9. Paul Pierce: 1998 #10
10. Steve Nash: 1996 #15
11. Shawn Marion: 1999 #9
12. Allen Iverson: 1996 #1
13. Rasheed Wallace: 1995 #4
14. Chauncey Billups: 1997 #3
15. Tracy McGrady: 1997 #9
16. Vince Carter: 1998 #5
17. Grant Hill: 1994 #3
18. Michael Finley: 1995 #21
19. Ben Wallace: 1996 Undrafted
20. LeBron James: 2003 #1
21. Elton Brand: 1999 #1
22. Peja Stojakovic: 1996 #14
23. Stephon Marbury: 1996 #4
24. Rashard Lewis: 1998 #32
25. Andre Miller: 1999 #9.

Looking at this list a little more:

Five picked at No. 1
One picked at No. 2.
Two picked at No. 3.
THREE Picked at No. 4.
Three picked at No. 5
Four picked at No. 9.
Four picked from No. 10-15.
The other three were No. 21, No. 32 and undrafted.

That doesn’t give us a lot of hope for finding a star at 23 and 31.

Maybe we can trade No. 4, 23 and 31 for No. 5 and No. 9 or link a player swap into such a move.

"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."

by coolcatreportdotcom on May 22, 2009 12:19 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

McChesney Rankings

I found the link to the other article. Here’s the meat of it:

In the article written for nbadraft.net, Robert McChesney offers a formula for determining who are the best players in NBA history and how it is almost impossible to win any NBA championship without one.

He also credits Danny Ainge for doing what it took to build the Celtics into a powerhouse. He writes: “What did Ainge understand? What did Ainge do? He understood that the basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar. There are only a few in the game at any time so they are almost impossible to get. But he went and got one.”

A little later, he adds: “The importance of having a player-for-the-ages in his prime to winning an NBA title, or even contending, is astonishing.”

He then develops a list of the best NBA players since the MVP award was introduced in 1956 and awards votes based on how players did in the MVP voting, how many all-NBA teams they made and who made the All-Defense teams. He divides the total points earned by seasons played and comes up with an average points per season that he uses to rank players with.

His top five: Tim Duncan, Bill Russell, Larry Bird, Michael Jordan and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.

He also lists current players, since this is not a longevity contest but is based on points per season. Top ranked active players after Duncan are Shaquille O’Neal, Kobe, LeBron, Kevin Garnett, all in what he calls the Gold Medal Superstar group. Fourteen other active players are on the list, or 19 of the top 80 since 1952. Other current players in order: Dirk Nowitzki, Steve Nash, Tracy McGrady, Jason Kidd, Allen Iversen, Chris Paul, Ben Wallace, Dwayne Wade, Grant Hill, Amare Stoudemire, Dwight Howard, Jermine O’Neal, Gilbert Arenas and Chauncey Billups.

MCCHESNEY RANKINGS (Active Players):
1. Tim Duncan: 1997 #1
2. Shaquille O’Neal: 1992 #1
3. Kobe Bryant: 1996 #13
4. LeBron James: 2003 #1
5. Kevin Garnett: 1995 #5
6. Dirk Nowitzki: 1998 #9
7. Steve Nash: 1996 #15
8. Tracy McGrady: 1997 #9
9. Jason Kidd: 1994 #2
10. Allen Iverson: 1996 #1
11. Chris Paul: 2005 #4
12. Ben Wallace: 1996 Undrafted
13. Dwayne Wade: 2003 #5
14. Grant Hill: 1994 #3
15. Amare Stoudemire: 2002 #9
16. Dwight Howard: 2004 #1
17. Jermaine O’Neal: 1996 #17
18. Gilbert Arenas: 2001 #30
19. Chauncey Billups: 1997 #3

Br draft position:

No. 1: Five (but three of the top four).
No. 2: One.
No. 3: Two.
No. 4: One.
No. 5: Two.
No. 9: Three.
No. 13: One.
No. 15: One.
No. 17: One.
No. 30: One
Undrafted: One.

So 11 of 19 were available at No. 4.

"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."

by coolcatreportdotcom on May 22, 2009 1:06 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Good stuff.

Thanks, man.

by twasserm on May 23, 2009 9:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

McChesney Rankings by Position

Center = Shaq, Dwight,
Center/Forward = Ben, Tim, Jermaine, Amar’e
Power Forwards = Kevin, Dirk
Small Forwards = LeBron
Small Forward/Shooting Guard = Grant, Tracy
Shooting Guard = Kobe, Dwayne
Shooting Guard/Point Guard = Gilbert, Allen
Point Guards = Chris, Jason, Steve, Chauncey

I only segregate the list for two primary points:

Recent history dictates the most successful players fall into the PF/C Combo roll of which both JT and Spencer Hawes show decent upside. Given their are only a handful of true Centers in the league at this time we are better off drafting a big that is comfortable defending the low post while being able to face and drain the mid-range jumper. I would look strongly at Slava or Boban who already have the height, the outside shot and really just need to work on defending the post (which weight/strength/age can come)

The other point is that finding a true point guard versus a combo guard maybe be more important than originally thought by some of our earlier posts. I have been enamored with the 6 – 4 guard, athletic guard that is quick enough to cover the speedy PGs in the league While size is an advantagelity with the exception of Jason Kidd who legitimately is over 200 lbs and 6’4", all the PGs and combo Guards are under 200 lbs and avg. a sliver over 6 feet tall.

If you look at the PGs specifically, all are really playmakers/distributors first and scorers second with Jason on one end and Chauncey on the other end of the spectrum. All have extremely high Basketball IQs, floor generals but not necessarily the Vocal leaders/Captains on the teams.

Maybe we revisit how we look at the stats based on the notes above and determine who else beside’s Rubio makes the the cut…

More later…

by SactownheartOChouse on May 22, 2009 5:55 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

The Guys with the Rings

Center = Shaq, Dwight, = 4
Center/Forward = Ben, Tim, Jermaine, Amar’e = 5
Power Forwards = Kevin, Dirk = 1
Small Forwards = LeBron
Small Forward/Shooting Guard = Grant, Tracy
Shooting Guard = Kobe, Dwayne = 4
Shooting Guard/Point Guard = Gilbert, Allen
Point Guards = Chris, Jason, Steve, Chauncey

= 1

are in bold, with the number of rings with each position to the right.

The list is dominated by big men, with shooting guards playing second fiddle and the best point guards largely ringless.

Of course, eight of those nine rings are worn by No. 1 picks Shaq and Duncan. Blake Griffin doesn’t look like he will ascend that high.

"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."

by coolcatreportdotcom on May 23, 2009 2:44 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs