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Day Late & Dollar Short; here's my $0.02

A couple of redundancies to start; all of these comments are predicated on the following assumptions:

  • You've read Assigning Ricky Rubio Trade Limits by Section214 (this was originally a comment for that thread, but just got too long)
  • After a 17-win season, "best player available" should be the draft strategy for the Kings
  • All player specifics are "GP" picks (i.e. moving up/drafting "Player X" because GP wants him, not because I do)
  • NOBODY on the roster is untouchable
  • Presently, Martin, Thompson, & Hawes are the core of the team
  • I like Greene, and would like to see him given a shot at becoming part of the above-mentioned core

All that said, here's where I currently stand on draft picks/trades...

Star-divide

My first thought looking at Section's "max" offers was that his ceiling was actually pretty low (for a refresher, see below):

The #4 and #23 pick and Kenny Thomas (1 yr. @ $9 million) to Memphis for the #2 pick and Marco Jaric (2 yrs. @ $15 million).
...
The #4 and #23 pick and Donté Greene to OKC for the #3 and #25 pick.

The only things he mentions giving up is the oft-maligned "K9's Never-Ending(woof!--wait, what?) Expiring Contract", Donté Greene, & late first rounders (apologies to #31 . . . you're basically a first).

Again, at first glace that doesn't seem to me like much to give up to go from non-Franchise pick to FRANCHISE PICK . . . but apparently many thought he was all but mortgaging the future of the team (stand by, Captain Hyperbole).

Let's review:

K9(woof!)'s EXPIRING Contract
FINALLY!  I can't believe it's happening: the 2nd phase of the C-Webb deal that I've waited years for.  Will he bring in a piece of the future core for the next great Kings squad via trade, or will his contract cap space be used to sign that player in 2010?  Let's just say, I won't be holding my breath.

If K9's Expiring Contract (K9EC) can move the Kings into Franchise Player range in the draft, then the C-Webb deal might be reclassified from "necessary salary cap deal" into the category of "good basketball trade".  I'll state it again, "anything" positive that can be acquired from K9EC must be seriously considered . . . SERIOUSLY.

Donté Greene
Donté hasn't proven anything on the court yet; therefore, he should not be a deal-breaker in acquiring a potential Franchise Player.  GP shouldn't be pushing Donté on other teams, obviously, but he also shouldn't hang up on them if they want him enough to break off negotiations. 

Kevin Martin
I haven't been extremely diligent in reading Fan Posts lately, but I don't recall anyone saying that Martin should be used to swap picks.  I saw (and made) some comments that if Martin's value could be replaced (in a reasonable capacity) with the pick at #4 that it would be worth looking into trading him for a player at #1 or #2 to fill another need.  In Martin's case, I was also of the mindset that if Denver collapsed this year (this was pre-Billups) that he could be the centerpiece of a Carmelo Anthony trade (shades of Richmond-Webber) this summer.  That is obviously not happening now . . . but those are the kinds of deals where moving Martin might make sense.

Shock & Hawes
2a & 2b of the future core have a lot of promise.  That said, both were "surprise" success stories (Shock more so than Hawes, but still).  Trading either of them for a higher ceiling player should not be dismissed out of hand.  [I'll take this opportunity to reiterate that I am not using myself as a talent evaluator, but that I trust the GP braintrust.]  If Griffin/Rubio are Franchise-caliber players, then trading a current piece of the core for a better core piece is a net positive (please don't forget this when considering trades).  In the case of Griffin, if he is even an annual All-Star contender, then that could be a significant upgrade over either of the bigs currently on the roster.

There currently seem to be two schools of thought in "The-Kings-Can-Draft-Rubio" debate: (1) he'll drop to #4, or (2) he could reasonably be acquired through trade at #2, or #3.  If the teams at 2 & 3 don't want him, but aren't locked on to Thabeet . . . that's potentially a lot of trade value for them.  Add to that the fact that either team could take on salary and that's a double-whammy.  One of the best things that the Kings have in their favor is that a trade involving a pick-swap is an easy sell, because the drop isn't very far (e.g. 2-to-4 is potentially a lot more palatable than 2-to-6), and has happened enough as to be a reasonable thought.

If Griffin/Rubio are the only --assuming there are any-- Franchise Players in this draft, then acquiring the #2 would be huge for this franchise (and as has also been mentioned, would go a long way towards keeping the team local and possibly even pushing the arena situation forward).

The other great thing about getting #2 before the draft is that you put yourself in position to pick up the pieces of a Clippers-pick Fallout (e.g. Thabeet/Rubio at #1) . . . again, if Blake is the guy in the draft.

Since this was originally a comment in a heavily populated thread, I don't know where to direct the conversation at this point.  A lot has already been said in Section's original post and this was really an extension of that conversation, I just thought that the length of this "comment" outgrew it's original intention . . . so run with it or simply move on.  I won't be hurt if this dies an anonymous death, but I'd be thrilled if this opened up the dialog even more.

In conclusion, as my buddy's alcoholic Dad used to always say: "If IFs were fifths, we'd all be f---in' DRUNK."  Stay thirsty, my friends.

(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)

Comment 33 comments  |  2 recs  | 

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I think your attitudes mirror my own.

You are absolutely correct that the Kings should consider “NOBODY” to be untradable. If Petrie were to trade Kevin Martin and #4 to the Grizz for Rubio, than I would accept that Rubio is just that amazingly good in workouts and on tape and that is what it took to get him (read on).

Even though I was as pissed as anybody about getting that fourth selection, the Petrie trusting part of me says that he is a fantastic evaluator of draft talent and whoever he selects will be an excellent pro…and at the four spot, probably a star.

And back to trading Kevin Martin for an unknown quantity —I am fairly convinced that Kevin Martin is a valuable, yet unfortunately common commodity. I know I’m just baiting the stat fans out there who would throw shooting % numbers at me, but there are lots of players who can shoot and run like the wind but not lead, defend, inspire, or pass. If we have the chance to pick up a player with a lot of promise for him, I say pull the trigger.

by CDinSD on May 26, 2009 12:29 AM PDT reply actions  

hmm maybe the Martin part is less of a mirror

and more of a murky pond. But definitely on the nobody should be untradable part

by CDinSD on May 26, 2009 12:31 AM PDT up reply actions  

If the Kings are trading Martin to the Grizzlies

Than another young piece in addition to the 2nd overall pick better be coming back.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 26, 2009 12:48 AM PDT up reply actions  

Agreed

I’d also say that I’d have a very hard time trading “Martin & #4” for anyone in this draft.

by smgmatt on May 26, 2009 7:12 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah smg

I’m with ya on that too. Very good call.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 26, 2009 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

Martin & #4 would probably get you Amare

I wouldn’t do that deal, either. But is there anyone in this draft that (today) is better than Amare?

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on May 26, 2009 3:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

Probably not

Still wouldn’t want Amare anyway. I’m biased. I’ve never really liked his game.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 26, 2009 4:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

Agreed

That is, however, the type of deal that that should be looked into, if not the perfect example.

by smgmatt on May 26, 2009 8:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

I've said everything I can say in that thread smg

But good stuff nonetheless.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 26, 2009 12:48 AM PDT reply actions  

I marinalized Kevin Martin's capacity

Is he above average . . . yes. He is great on offense, really needs to repair his reputation on defense.

Still, swing players that can put up some offensive numbers are the easiest, most plentiful personnel to find in the league. We can already replace him the starting lineup with Garcia if traded. You’d lose half the production offensively put would gain in defense, intangibles, flexibility and on court leadership.

If you did trade him for Rubio than the offense gets shifted to Rubio/Hawes/JT. This combination is still young and would struggle for another season but moving forward would be very capable of handling the offensive load.

Also remember the team seeking that big offensive SG in the late 90’s. Turns out a guy like Doug Christie was the more effective piece.

by bignerd on May 26, 2009 12:58 AM PDT reply actions  

Kmart is one of the best scoring wings of all time that suffered through an ankle injury last season.

Give him another season, if he comes back healthy (which I assume he will) he is probably a top 5 SG in this league. He will average 24+ points next season on 60% true shooting percentage…any improvement with his ankle and he will shred his reputation as an atrocious defender (I hope)

Hope

by Ultrakingsfan on May 26, 2009 2:09 AM PDT up reply actions  

Never has one been seen by so few but lusted for by so many.

Right now, today, Rubio may not be the best PG in this Draft. Maybe. In three years, when he can hold his own in the NBA, he still might not be the best PG in this draft.

But, even if he turns out to be the best in the Draft, we are a rebuilding team with very few solid assets. We lost the lottery. Live with it. Move on and do the best we can with what we have to work with.

The reality is we have ONE center and ONE (legitamate) PF, and ONE PG, and ONE SG, and THREE SF;s, We have nothing to trade, and 6 holes to fill. GP will find a PG, and if luck finally changes in our favor, it may even be Rubio. But, we have a team desparately in need of wins, and you don’t do that with undrafted players and minimum salaried Vets.

If #31 and #4 get us Rubio, and GP wants him that badly, then ok. Other than that, I’ll take the best player available at #4, and hope he’s Rubio or Jennings.

"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom

by HighTops on May 26, 2009 2:05 AM PDT reply actions  

In a Jr High game?

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 26, 2009 9:13 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yes

But the cheerleaders loved him.

"Shut up and Coach!"
Vfettke

by SavageBeast on May 26, 2009 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions   2 recs

Lol.

Father of the "Natt this!" movement.

by Aykis16 on May 26, 2009 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions  

Nice SB

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 26, 2009 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions  

All good points

The question of whether Rubio is “the guy” or not is a different conversation (as stated everything hinged on the assumption that he was).

Along these lines, “losing” the lottery might not be a big deal at all in that perhaps GP likes someone other than the guys getting all the press. If that’s the case, there’s probably no difference between #1 & #4 for him, and there likely won’t be the same kind of fallout in the court of public opinion that would happen at #1 (or even #2).

If that happens, you can expect terrible “grades” from the media after the draft, but that’s par for the course at this point.

Rubio might sell a ton of tickets, but wins definitely will.

by smgmatt on May 26, 2009 7:36 AM PDT up reply actions  

Rubio may fall...

As I said on another thread (and looking at DX’s latest mock draft), it’s looking more and more likely that Rubio will drop to 4. How if you are Memphis or OKC can you justify drafting Rubio without getting an agreement in place that he will come over? You can’t. Period. Picking a player that isn’t a need and that may not come overseas (so you can trade him for a little more value) is jut too risky and the fact that he decides when he comes over eliminates all of your leverage.

If Rubio’s people won’t give you that assurance (I just realized I slipped into the Hubie Brown 2nd person voice), you simply can’t spend a top 2 or 3 pick on a guy who may never come over, especially when you have greater needs at other positions, and there are other players available at those positions (i.e., Thabeet, Harden and Hill).

OKC trading up to #1 is the only scenario that I worry about because if Rubio ended up in LA, Fegan would be happy, and if Griffin ended up in OKC, he would be happy. That deal keeps the top 2 picks out of our hands.

Lastly, with LA Clips reportedly shopping the Griffin, I would be a big fan of a deal that traded Rubio (assuming he dropped) and another picks/assets for Griffin (whom I think is going to be an all-star at the power forward spot for years). That may be another thread, but I would do Rubio and the #23 and Donte for Griffin all day long.

by R-Man on May 26, 2009 7:37 AM PDT reply actions  

Griffin/Rubio = Player X

If Rubio falls, and that’s who GP wants, then that’s obviously the best case scenario.

This is what I found really interesting, however (emphasis mine):

Lastly, with LA Clips reportedly shopping the Griffin, I would be a big fan of a deal that traded Rubio (assuming he dropped) and another picks/assets for Griffin (whom I think is going to be an all-star at the power forward spot for years). That may be another thread, but I would do Rubio and the #23 and Donte for Griffin all day long.

This is actually the heart of what I was getting at. The focus in my post was on Rubio mainly because it started out as a comment in Section’s “Rubio” post, but as I stated in my assumptions, my opinion is based on “Player X” (i.e. #1 on GP’s draft board).

Stating that you’d trade Donté, #4, & #23 for “Player X” isn’t really any different than what Section listed in his OKC proposal (the Kings got back #25 in that deal, but I believe he even stated he’d do it without that pick coming back).

Is Martin & Donté worth #1 & #4 in an allegedly “weak” draft? What if Rubio doesn’t fall to #4?

Lots of good questions, and things that I think are good to explore, even if they are not the best options in the end.

by smgmatt on May 26, 2009 8:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

The Clips may take less for #1

They have a veteran team – loaded with big men and small guards. What they need is help at the swing 3-4, Cisco, Noce and a (maybe) back-up PG, though I like Taylor.
Assuming they don’t want to/can’t trade Baron Davis, they were putting a team together to win now.

So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on May 26, 2009 9:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

I meant 2-3 of course on Cisco

and maybe a guy like Noce who is a 3-4.

Thats quite a team if healthy

So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on May 26, 2009 9:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

I have to think

…that they could do a lot better for the #1 than a Garcia/Noc-driven package. If nothing else, they should try to unload Zach Randolph’s horrible contract in the process.

by smgmatt on May 26, 2009 9:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don’t think the Clippers are that dumb . . . but if any franchise is stupid enough it would be the Clippers.

by bignerd on May 26, 2009 9:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

Mortgaging the future?

You make good points about Shock and Hawes. They are both very promising young players. Hawes I think is a starting NBA caliber center. I am hopeful for both of them. But neither has reached the level of an all-star caliber player. And they may never reach that level. KMart is probably a top 25 NBA player but certainly not a top 10 player. Greene has lots of potential and athleticism. He has big promise but also is a big question mark.

I don’t know if Rubio is an obvious franchise PG. But if we give up one of the young bigs or KMART he had better be. You are right that we do have something to trade. We just don’t have much. And, if we trade say Jason, now we are starting all over at PF with nothing but Ike and his four games at the end of the season. The one thing that almost everyone agrees on is that there is very little talent (especially size) at the PF in this draft. Unlike PG, where you could pick someone up at 23 or 31, there is Blake and Hill and that’s it. There are a couple of center prospects out there but none stand out as more than longshots.

by mr west on May 26, 2009 12:01 PM PDT reply actions  

I’d be surprised if we could pick a starting PG outside the Top 10 picks.

by bignerd on May 26, 2009 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

Many so-called “experts” predict Jennings going latter than 10. I don’t know if that will happen, I’m just throwing it out there.

by cbsf on May 26, 2009 6:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

I haven't seen one mock with Jennings out of the top 10.

Where you getting your info?

Father of the "Natt this!" movement.

by Aykis16 on May 26, 2009 8:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

Me neither

Every indication says he doesn’t get past the Warriors at #7

by bignerd on May 26, 2009 8:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

The 20 mocks that I've reviewed

has him going between 4 and 10, with the average being #7.

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on May 26, 2009 8:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

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