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Rubio, Where For Art Thou Rubio?

Ricky Rubio with his snippets of video highlights, game appearances and press releases has successfully managed to garner international interest, a probably NBA Lottery contract, and a line of endorsements that would make even Spencer Pratt and Heidi Montag whine, "Why is he getting all the publicity?"

So where is he and why isn't he here?

Although the Spanish sensation is young, I doubt for a second that his career and future 'corporation' are nothing less than a calculated if not schemed maneuvering to maximize his fortune and fame without the expense or risk of having to prove himself on the court--at least not in a traditional sense. In other words his camp is a marketing genius leaving us awe struck and thirsty for more while we ponder if it is justifiable hoopla or a hoodwink in the making. His body of work is as streaky as his game, one minute he is filling the stat sheet with productive razzle dazzle and another he is biding his time on the pine.

From his camp's perspective what is the upside in coming out of hiding right now other than for PR interivews? There is no need to prove the detractors correct by showing up and looking average against the other PGs that will comprise the middle to later portion of the first round. Most of the workouts are individual drills and 3 on 3s where his outside shot that comes free with a quirky release (picture Kevin Martin watching with glee in his eyes as he thinks to himself, mine looks better than that)  and lack of physicality will be accentuated over his creative passes, steals, alley oops and ability to execute the pick-n-roll.

Five on five camps that feature full court looks for scouts also make sense to pass up as most of those venues help showcase athletic abilities and one on one skills as their isn't sufficient time to develop offensive schemes and cohesion between players. Rubio's prowess is going to be better served where he knows his teams' abilities and has a feel for where and when to pass the rock. The motley crue he would play with in these pick up games are ill prepared for his passing antics. Specifically his assists would likely be less and turnovers higher--no need for that to be highlighted.

Given his camps preference for the big markets any additional proof that he is the next Bond will only further incite Memphis and OK to remain geeked on him as their next star. Selfishly, he will make more cake if he drops in the draft and gets to play in a bigger market despite a down scaled starting salary. BTW - Don't buy into the philosophy that he won't be able to pay the piper back in Spain as his first real endorsement will more than cover that tab if he ultimately loses his pending arbitration.

Finally, given the polls of public opinion, there is no real upside that the Clippers are going to take a chance on Rubio over Blake, who has spent more time in Hollywood this last month than Britney Spears. So why showcase anything there so that the other teams can steal looks or hear rumors that either erode his enigma or complicate his destiny to another more attractive market.

Let's be frank: He belongs in New York or LA where his marquee potential can rival his basketball gifts. Anywhere else will only be a 3 year hiatus before his free agent stock would illicit a bloated overpaid contract in a big market anyway. Sacramento could get a lot better with Rubio, but I doubt he would stay in Sacramento unless we are threatening to win an NBA championship and we have already voted that we are at least 2 seasons away from making the playoffs.

Furthermore, I honestly don't recall a time when there was this much attention given pre-draft for a bunch of semi-talented high risk/high reward players, especially at the guard position. With Rubio leading the pack, it is safe to say that very few of us are fully committed to any PG in this draft and yet we all feel at least 3 PG and 3 Combo guards would make our team better in a hurry.

What gives most of anxiety is using the 4th pick on someone that doesn't become an All Star for the Kings. To make matters worse none of us are convinced anyone will absolutely become a top 10 player in the NBA from this draft. If I am wrong on that please speak up or or ever hold your peace.

SO, after reading about several other team's needs and blogs and there definitely seems to be some interest in the trade machine around Rubio. If we play our hand right we can leverage Rubio's lust for the limelight while satiating our desire for a player that wants to and can start for our Kings while improving the team elsewhere.

In my next post, I will detail why I think this makes sense and possibly what our options are.

(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)

0 recs  |  Comment 13 comments

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sorry you are having a bad day

where to begin?

Furthermore, I honestly don’t recall a time when there was this much attention given pre-draft for a bunch of semi-talented high risk/high reward players, especially at the guard position

ever year that there has been a draft

Let’s be frank: He belongs in New York or LA where his marquee potential can rival his basketball gifts. Anywhere else will only be a 3 year hiatus before his free agent stock would illicit a bloated overpaid contract in a big market anyway

are you saying that Sacramento is too low to deserve high caliber talent or that the Tim Duncan’s, LeBron James and the like are too dumb to move? I find these remarks insulting. I am sure they are not intended that way, but please, if your inferiority complex involving the Kings is so severe, I call into question your fanhood.

That is enough, I will let others say their piece.

by betweentheeyes on Jun 13, 2009 10:04 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

every year that there has been a draft

I love it.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Jun 13, 2009 10:40 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Shits getting dicey up in here.

"Or, as Randy Jackson would say: Not feelin’ it, dawg."
-bench-blob- posting virgin.

by jjham15 on Jun 13, 2009 10:48 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Girl I must warn you
I sense something strange in my mind
Yeah yo situation is serious
Let’s cure it ‘cause we’re running out of time
Mm mm tell ‘em Rick it’s all so beautiful
Relationships they seem from the start
Yeah mm mm it’s all so deadly
When love is not together from the heart
Mm mm check it out

It’s driving me out of my mind
That’s why it’s hard for me to find
Can’t get it outta my head
Miss her, kiss her, love her, wrong move you’re dead

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Jun 13, 2009 11:25 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You've done some good stuff here,

and this is written well. But I can’t find a thing to agree with in this post.

The thought that we should pass on a player because he is likely to leave in three years anyway? That is mind boggling. You do know that we will be able to offer whomever we draft at #4 more money than any other suitor when it comes time to re-up, right? You know that three years from now that this team will have every opportunity to be nationally relevant again due to the number of high draft picks and eventual cap space, right?

Therefore, I have to respectfully disagree with the premise of this post.

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on Jun 14, 2009 9:23 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Sorry I blew up...

I re-read my post this morning and admit I lost my point…let me be succinct and hopefully relevant.

—Rubio has more trade value than any of the other PGs in the draft right now.
—Rubio may not actually be better than a few PGs in the draft namely Jennings (IMO)
—Rubio Camp has a plan and has been clever in how Rubio has been marketed.
—That plan lands him atop of the draft without much compliance to the typical process pre-draft, and may only cost him 2 spots in the draft and only because his camp has stated he doesn’t want to play there.
—If we trade down we possibly get a better PG or arguably as good, improve our Salary Cap position, and possibly some other pick or valuable player…

Please don’t get lost in my rant that Sac is some inferior option in the league merely not the preferred option to some because of a few current issues:
- We were the worse team in the league last year
- We are on our 4th coach in as many years
- Media is speculating that the Kings may leave Sac
- Attendance is the worsed in the league
- We need a new Arena
- Our ownership is losing Millions and is being frugal with their spend

Winning fixes most of the above and we will win again, however we are back in the Chris Webber mode of (some) players being reluctant to come here as free agents even if we can pay them more. Rubio or another drafted PG won’t bring us a ring. Most agreed last month that it wont even get us in the playoffs next year. SO we do need to steal an All Star and I think Rubio offers the best trade bait to do so.

OK, let me have it guys…

Perception is strong and sight weak. In strategy it is important to see distant things as if they were close and to take a distanced view of close things.

Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt — When catapults are outlawed, only outlaws will have catapults"

by SactownheartOChouse on Jun 14, 2009 9:46 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

OK, let me have it guys…

Nah, I got math homework to do.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Jun 14, 2009 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sports/Math Humor...

Perception is strong and sight weak. In strategy it is important to see distant things as if they were close and to take a distanced view of close things.

Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt — When catapults are outlawed, only outlaws will have catapults"

by SactownheartOChouse on Jun 14, 2009 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions   2 recs

Good one

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Jun 14, 2009 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

x=y

It’s funny you should word it that way, because the flaw in your plan is actually in the math.

x=trade value of said player
y=expected quality of player

In this day and age, with the amount of scouting that goes on, x almost always equals y. It’s easy to create hype among us fans. Show us some pretty videos with cool rap music, write about how good a workout went, even tell us about how a player wants to come to our team, and we swoon. That’s not the case with GMs. If a player is highly valued, it’s generally because that player is expected to do well in the NBA.

This doesn’t mean that the GMs are always right, or that some GMs aren’t better than others, or even that some GMs might draft a player for reasons specific to that team and not the overall quality of the player. But 99% of the time x=y.

Therefore, your error is in assuming that Rubio’s trade value can be very high despite the “fact” that he is not much better than the other PGs in the draft. If Rubio’s Y is equal to many other PG’s Y, his X can’t be that much higher. And if his X is high, it is only because most GM’s feel his Y is higher than other PG’s Y.

This is why we as Kings fans always delude ourselves into thinking that in the lottery somehow the best players will be overlooked and fall into our laps, but they don’t. As the draft goes on, the players’ Y and X decreses sigificantly, creating more chance for an upset pick, but early on, you will not find a huge disparity between X and Y.

So my final point is, if Rubio is that big of a risk and that average of a player, how much would another team give to get him? And if they really would give up a lot, then they obviously believe he is something special and we’d be foolish to pass on him.

"Shut up and Coach!"
Vfettke

by SavageBeast on Jun 14, 2009 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

OK, now I understand

And your points make sense.

For me, it all comes down to acquiring assets greater than the assets you are dealing. That is, I have no problem dealing even Kevin Martin, as long as the sum of the parts coming back are greater than Martin. This is the same reasoning that I use in not wanting to make he Rondo for the #4 pick and for Rajon Rondo, as I feel that the #4 pick and JT are a greater compilation of assets than in Rondo.

That said, the issue becomes properly valuing the #4 pick (regardless of whether or not it is Rubio) when we talk about trading down. Let’s say that we swapped picks with Knicks, taking the #8 pick. What else would we need to have back to make it a good deal for us? I don’t think the acquisition of David Lee or Nate Robinson does it, as both are going to get paid this year. One of the things that made Lee a great value was his low salary. That is going away. Now he is a good double double guy, but not a particularly gifted interior defender. I think that he will be a fair value player moving forward, but he is no longer a great value. So is that worth dropping four slots?

Added to this is the fact that once GP zeroes in on a player, he really doesn’t play it too cute. Last year is a great example. JT at 12? At first blush, you would have thought that we could have traded down. But he was GP’s guy, and GP was taking no chances that he would lose him by trading down. I think that by draft day Petrie will have the guy that he wants chosen, and it would take an incredible deal to shake him from that.

Thanks for clarifying your position for me. It made a lot more sense to me. Thanks again for the read.

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on Jun 14, 2009 5:42 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Your last paragraph is very true

But, I fear he will badly overpay here. I hope he doesn’t.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Jun 18, 2009 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Circling back to this as so many posts were going around...

I appreciate you re-reading this and understand where you are coming from as well. I agree with you that GP is not the Blazer GM style where whole sale trades take place. Last year I had a heart attack when I heard of the 3 way trades going on.

Now that Rubio is in Sac and my Man Crush has returned, the thought of trading him has waned. but not because I don’t still feel he has more trade value at the moment than the other PGs we have looked at, but because I am not convinced there is a greater trade value out there…I know I don’t have one.

When you hear his interview he does have something special about him. That specialness may not translate into a better performer over the long haul, but it can be the reason he moves up versus down in a draft.

It is no different than Musselman’s interview for the Kings Job. There was something about him that our ownership thought was special despite the fact there wasn’t sufficient body of work to evaluate. So when you are forced to evaluate based more on potential or speculation, I think the person’s vibe, physicality or other intangibles can give evaluators an increased perception of one prospect over an other.

My last post re: Rubio calls this out more clearly…

Perception is strong and sight weak. In strategy it is important to see distant things as if they were close and to take a distanced view of close things.

Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt — When catapults are outlawed, only outlaws will have catapults"

by SactownheartOChouse on Jun 17, 2009 11:06 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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