Tiers of a Clown

by betweentheeyes on Jun 18, 2009 8:47 PM PDT

well, it was either that title or Tiers for Fears (everybody wants to rule the world version) This pertains to my having recently read two very similar posts; this one from LoudCity’s dishingoutdimes and the next day's Chad Ford version over on ESPN.com They are recommended reading.

Here is a chance to share some webspace with you all about this subject. Here on SactownRoyalty.com there are many posts about this upcoming prayer we hope is answered – the 2009 NBA Draft. In particular, I want to applaud nbrans for his Why I fear the draft posts I and II. Wonderful stuff, if a bit Teague-happy.

Here on the site, we have argued Thabeet, Evans, Jennings, Flynn, Holiday and it all started with Griffin v. Rubio. This year has the usual unpredictable twists and turns. As draft day nears, individual stock goes up and down – NCAA appearance, championships, the Combine, individual work outs. Refusal to join the combine, refusing to do team work outs It is all there, the knowing nods, the unsure shrugs, the frown of distaste. For just one post, I would like for us all to don TZ’s wizard cap – if he will loan it to each of us for this purpose and try the Tier method = the most logical and apparently the most widely used strategy for the NBA Draft.

Of course, I don’t have the Daryl Morey type grasp on numbers and statistics to present a formulaic discourse as to how each of these players are tiered but based on the two above posts and my own bias, here goes:

Tier One: Blake Griffin

Tier Two: Ricky Rubio, Hasheem Thabeet, James Harden

Tier Three: Stephen Curry, Tyreke Evans, DeMar DeRozan, Jonny Flynn, Jordan Hill, Jrue Holiday, Brandon Jennings

Tier Four: DeJuan Blair, Earl Clark, , Jeff Teague, Sam Young, Austin Daye, Gerald Henderson,, James Johnson, Ty Lawson, Eric Maynor, BJ Mullens, DaJuan Summers, Terence Williams, Tyler Hansbrough

Tier Four: Derrick Brown, Chase Budinger, Omri Casspi, Patrick Mills, DeMarre Carroll, Toney Douglas, Darren Collison, Viktor Claver, Wayne Ellington, Taj Gibson, Jeff Pendergraph, Rodrique Beaubois,

Tier Five: Jon Brockman, Danny Green, Marcus Thornton, Jodie Meeks, Nando De Colo, Jonas Jerebko, Jermaine Taylor

Now place the Kings needs in order of preference: this should be two-fold: if one of your criteria is met than you may wish to change your list preferences for the later picks. This system also allows you to better evaluate trades as it retains the value of the pick (the tier) and the relevance (in order of team need).

I urge you all to type or write down your tiers so that when you watch the NBA draft you can evaluate who is picking and why they are picking (or should be picking).

(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)

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A side note

If one holds true to this method an obvious problem presents in regards to the Kings right away. There are only four players in the first two tiers. There is no way to get Tier One and there is only one point guard in tier two. If Rubio is not available this means the Kings will end picking either Thabeet or Harden. Neither a point guard. Would any of you be okay with that? This is not Geoff Petrie’s Tier list, it is ChadFord/OKC’s with some alterations by me. Again – would you move one or more of the point guards up to Tier 2 or stay with the available Tier Two players as is and that may mean the Kings pick up a center or shooting guard as their BPA status exceeds need.

by betweentheeyes on Jun 18, 2009 8:47 PM PDT reply actions

Undoubtedly

the Tiers of the non-Clowns are slightly different. But, pretending for a minute that this is IT, I actually would not have a problem at all with a non-PG pick. I am firmly in the BPA camp. I would not hasten to the assumption that Rubio, Harden and Thabeet comprise that second tier, but…whateva.

Lower their expectations and rise to met them

by left hand on Jun 18, 2009 9:31 PM PDT up reply actions

I disagree with the "experts"

when they say that this is a weak draft. We won’t know the answer to that for a few years.

It is, however, one of the most difficult drafts to handicap and judge in many, many years. And when these “experts” have to write something, and they can’t hang their hats on anything tangible, they default to it being a weak or unspectacular draft.

These guys fear the unkown and don’t like surprises. That is why a Chad Ford bashes the Kings on draft night for their selection of Jason Thompson at #12. JT was not on Ford’s radar, so the Kings must have made a bad pick. And because JT was not on Ford’s radar, he knew little about Golden State’s interest in him at #14, and indicated that the Kings should have traded down and grabbed him later in the draft.

I won’t say that this draft is not without it’s challenges, and this is the kind of draft that could get a GM or two canned. There is a lot of volatility in this draft.

Years ago when I was still playing baseball, I used to relish oppresively hot days and ragged outfields. As a centerfielder, I felt that I could absorb the rotten conditions better than my opponent, thus giving my team and me an edge. That’s how I look at this draft. We have three picks in some pretty turbulent conditions. Advantage: Petrie.

Nice piece, bte.

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on Jun 18, 2009 9:18 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs

Great analogy

and great outlook.

Lower their expectations and rise to met them

by left hand on Jun 18, 2009 9:32 PM PDT up reply actions

Hear Here

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Jun 20, 2009 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions

Thanks for the plug, bte

I find this draft impossible to tier. There’s Griffin, about 15 guys, and then about 20 more guys. Three tiers. Go for it.

by nbrans on Jun 19, 2009 3:58 PM PDT reply actions

And I disagree that Griffin sticks out

This is the most volatile draft that I’ve thought about from day one.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Jun 20, 2009 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions