FanPost

2009 NBA DRAFT – DALT99 SYSTEM PLAYER RANKINGS (Post #1)

(Finally) It's time for the results of my system rankings of all the players (of significance) in the 2009 NBA draft. In Post #2 I will begin analyzing some of the players. Before I get to the list, I want to briefly explain again what the system is and what it's for. (Note: Please forgive any grammar or spelling errors. This is a looong post so I'm sure I messed up somewhere)

I have been obsessed with basketball statistics ever since the Kings came to Sacramento. I was even an assistant coach and statistician for my school for two years. About six years ago in 2003, there was such a fuss as to who would be the better pro between LeBron James, Darko Milicic, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade. To find out I decided to create a statistical system for the sole purpose of comparing current college basketball player's statistics to the college stats of current and former NBA players to see if I could project the NBA potential of current college (and European) players. I went back and ended up taking about a year to come up first with the system then to input all the best NBA player's college stats into the system. To my dismay I couldn't find a way to rank players like LeBron that never went to college. To rank the players, I decided to use a number scoring system from 0 to 105. (Note: Below is a brief description of what each number equates to towards a players assessed NBA potential.)

Besides the (most important) common stats such as points, rebounds, assists and FG%, the system factors in assist/turnover ratio, strength of schedule, height relative to position, athleticism and class. Basically, strength of schedule is self explanatory. For example, if two players have exactly the same stats (per 40 minutes) but one player plays for UCLA and the other for Sacramento State, guess which one has the higher potential? The Sac State player. Go Hornets!! Erm, sorry. What is interesting about the system is that some schools I have found, like Syracuse, will give the player a negative modifier because of the systems they run. Same with Duke, North Carolina and others. Some, like UCLA, Connecticut and Memphis, give a positive modifier. Height and position go together. Obviously a 6'4" point guard is fine but a 5'9" one usually has significant disadvantages. The athleticism modifier is the hardest one to gauge and is the only modifier in the system where my personal opinion comes in to play. I don't give a player a bonus for being extra athletic but he probably will get a negative modifier for being overtly non-athletic or extremely overweight. In this year's draft, Nick Calathes, Luke Harangody (who's pulled out now) and John Bryant have received this modifier. (Note: I want to emphasize that even though I may prefer certain players to others, all the scores are based solely on the player's stats and by comparing them to every other NBA player before them. I don't change or tamper with a score because of personal preferences for or against a player. In fact, there are times where I disagree with my system's findings! Like with Jason Thompson last year and Spencer Hawes before him. Oops!)

Lastly I definitely factor in class. A senior and a freshman with the exact same stats, height and level of competition are (usually) never equal. The freshman will get the bonus for his potential. Almost every player improves from his freshman to senior year. Not all, but most do and usually significantly, so yes I factor in class.

Of course there are things that I just can't factor in such as work ethic, being prone to injury, toughness, hustle, leadership, one-on-one defensive ability (besides steals and blocks), basketball IQ and good or bad personalities. That stuff I leave up to all the analysts, GMs, scouts and fans. I can't actually meet or watch any of these guys play on a regular basis so it's impossible to accurately factor these things in.

Score descriptions: Before the list, here is a description of what each player score represents based on their college stats:

100+: Superstar/MVP potential - The best players of all time. These are the franchise players that will be the ones you hear in the MVP talk at the end of the year. Shaq (105), Dr. J. (104), Olajuwon (103.5), Michael Jordan (102.5), Allen Iverson (102.5), Charles Barkley (100.5) and Chris Paul (100) are among the players to score in this group.

98-100: All-Star/Superstar potential - Players in this rank will usually become multiple all-stars and sometimes even superstars. Kevin Durant (99), Scottie Pippen (99), Chris Webber (99) and Clyde Drexler (99) are among the players to score in this group.

96-98: All-Star potential - Players in this rank will usually become multiple all-stars but rarely all-star starters. Paul Pierce (97.5), Elton Brand (97.5), Carlos Boozer (97) Brandon Roy (96.5) and Mitch Richmond (96) are among the players to score in this group.

93-96: Solid Starter/All-Star potential - A player in this rank should be a solid starter for his whole career and will usually make at least one appearance as an all-star at some point in his career. Rasheed Wallace (96), Carmelo Anthony (96), Mike Bibby (95.5), Al Horford (95.5), Rajon Rondo (93.5) and Gerald Wallace (93) are among the players to score in this group.

90-93: Solid Starter potential - The backbone of the NBA. These players usually won't make it to an all-star game but they should have solid NBA careers. Danny Granger (92.5), Ben Gordon (92), Lionel Simmons (91.5), Kevin Martin (91), Rodney Stuckey (91), Spencer Hawes (91) and Paul Millsap (90) are among the players to score in this group.

86-90: Fringe Starter/Solid Starter potential - The elite of the NBA bench players. These players will usually be the first players off the bench for good teams or solid starters on poorer teams without a star at the position they play. Troy Murphy (90), Marcus Camby (89.5), Jason Thompson (89), Ike Diogu (88.5), Marc Gasol (88.5), John Salmons (87.5), Leon Powe (87) and Francisco Garcia (86.5) are among the players to score in this group.

82-86: 6th Man/Fringe Starter potential - The lunch pail types of the NBA. These players are the backups to the starters and will usually start about 25% of the time in their career. They are usually good players with limitations or average players that excel in a specific area. They may be starters on a poor team (such as Corey Brewer, 84.5), on a team that needs that player's special skill (such as Earl Watson, 84.5) or because they are filling in for an injured starter. Carl Landry (84.5), Renaldo Balkman (84), Brandon Bass (83) and Channing Frye (82.5) are among the players to score in this group.

77-82: Career Reserve/6th Man potential - These are the energy guys of the NBA. These players almost never become solid starters in the NBA.  About half scoring in this rank will be out of the league in 3 years while the other half will be able to find a team to stick with and have a long career bringing some needed energy off the bench. Bobby Jackson (81.5), Kenny Thomas (81.5), Trevor Ariza (81), Daniel Gibson (79.5) and Eddie House (79.5) are among the players to score in this group.

72-77: Career Reserve potential - These are the specialists of the NBA. About only 5% of players from this rank go on to start more than 10% of NBA games they play in and over half never even make it to sign a contract. Most of the players who score in this rank that go on to have long careers in the NBA are specialists - players that excel in a key area that a team might look for to fill holes or to use in certain situations such as a 3-pt marksman (JJ Redick, 73.5 and Steve Novak, 72), a shot blocker (Brian Skinner, 75.5), a banger/toughman (Eduardo Najera, 75.5) or a defensive specialist such as Randy Brown (74). Lawrence Funderburke (76.5), Justin Williams (76.5), Dahntay Jones (73.5) and Mikki Moore (72) are among the players to score in this group.

67-72: 12th Man/Career Reserve potential - The bench warmers and injured reserve of the NBA. Over 90% of players ranked in this group never sign an NBA contract. Similar to the rank above, the only players that make a long NBA career are specialists or the hustle/scrappers. Mateen Cleaves (71), Maurice Evans (69.5), Ronnie Price (68.5) and Patrick Ewing Jr. (67) are among the players to score in this group.

62-67: Fringe Player/12th Man potential - Only a handful of college players that find themselves in this rank have ever played a handful of games in the NBA. Duane Causwell (64), Daniel Ewing (64.5), Ryan Hollins (64.5) and Jermareo Davidson (63.5) are among the very few in this rank that have made it onto an NBA court.

0-62: Should Go Undrafted - A player in this range should not be drafted. Any GM that does draft someone in this rank should be punished.

2009 NBA Draft Rankings

 

 

Player-Class

School

Pos.

Score

1)

Blake Griffin-So

Oklahoma

FC

103

2)

Ricky Rubio-E

Spain

PG

100

3)

Tyreke Evans-F

Memphis

G

99

4)

Ty Lawson-J

North Carolina

PG

98

5)

James Harden-So

Arizona State

SG

94.5

6)

Stephen Curry-J

Davidson

G

93.5

7)

Jrue Holiday-F

UCLA

G

93

8)

Hasheem Thabeet-J

Connecticut

C

92.5

9)

DeJuan Blair-So

Pittsburgh

FC

92

10)

Jeff Teague-So

Wake Forest

PG

91.5

11)

Jonny Flynn-So

Syracuse

PG

90.5

12)

James Johnson-So

Wake Forest

F

90.5

13)

Nick Calathes-So

Florida

GF

90.5

14)

Brandon Jennings-E

Italy

PG

90

15)

Terrence Williams-Se

Louisville

GF

89.5

16)

DeMarre Carroll-Se

Missouri

PF

89.5

17)

DeMar DeRosan-F

USC

GF

89

18)

B.J. Mullens-F

Ohio State

C

88

19)

Jordan Hill-J

Arizona

PF

87.5

20)

Austin Daye-(So)

Gonzaga

F

87.5

21)

A.J. Price-(J)

Connecticut

PG

87.5

22)

Darren Collison-Se

UCLA

PG

87

23)

Leo Lyons-(Se)

Missouri

FC

86.5

24)

Taj Gibson-J

USC

PF

86.5

25)

Chase Budinger-J

Arizona

SF

86

26)

Eric Maynor -Se

VCU

PG

86

27)

Lee Cummard-(Se)

Brigham Young

GF

86

28)

Tyler Hansbrough-Se

North Carolina

PF

85.5

29)

Nando De Colo-E

France

G

85.5

30)

Danny Green-Se

North Carolina

GF

85

31)

Rodrigue Beaubois-E

France

PG

85

32)

Jerel McNeal-Se

Marquette

G

84.5

33)

Gerald Henderson-J

Duke

G

84.5

34)

Earl Clark-J

Louisville

F

84.5

35)

Omri Casspi-E

Israel

F

84

36)

Jodie Meeks-J

Kentucky

SG

84

37)

Travis Holmes-Se

Virginia Military

G

84

38)

John Bryant-Se

Santa Clara

C

84

39)

Wayne Ellington-J

North Carolina

G

83.5

40)

Sam Young-Se

Pittsburgh

GF

83

41)

Sergio Llull-E

Spain

PG

83

42)

Aaron Jackson-Se

Duquesne

PG

83

43)

Jeff Pendergraph-Se

Arizona State

PG

82.5

44)

Lester Hudson-Se

Tenn-Martin

PF

82.5

45)

Jermaine Taylor-Se

Central Florida

G

82

46)

Ben Woodside-Se

North Dakota St.

SG

81.5

47)

Patrick Mills-So

Saint Mary's

PG

81

48)

Marcus Thornton-Se

LSU

G

81

49)

Byron Eaton-Se

Oklahoma State

PG

81

50)

Tyrese Rice-Se

Boston College

PG

81

51)

Derrick Brown-J

Xavier

F

81

52)

Brandon Costner-J

NC State

SF

81

53)

Chinemelu Elonu-J

Texas A&M

C

81

54)

Dominic James-Se

Marquette

PG

80.5

55)

Toney Douglas-Se

Florida State

G

80.5

56)

Dionte Christmas-Se

Temple

GF

80

57)

Jack McClinton-Se

Miami (FL)

G

80

58)

Dar Tucker-So

DePaul

SG

80

59)

Jeremy Pargo-Se

Gonzaga

PG

80

60)

Paul Harris-J

Syracuse

GF

80

61)

Antonio Anderson-Se

Memphis

GF

79.5

62)

Robert Dozier-Se

Memphis

F

79

63)

Jon Brockman-(Se)

Washington

PF

78.5

64)

Levance Fields-Se

Pittsburgh

PG

78

65)

Cedric Jackson-(Se)

Cleveland State

G

78

66)

Chavis Holmes-Se

Virginia Military

G

77.5

67)

Chris Lowe-Se

Massachusetts

PG

77.5

68)

Henk Norel-E

Spain

C

77.5

69)

Luke Nevill-Se

Utah

C

77

70)

Alade Aminu-Se

Georgia Tech

PF

77

71)

Devan Downey-Se

South Carolina

PG

76.5

72)

Wesley Matthews-Se

Marquette

SG

76.5

73)

Curtis Jerrells-Se

Baylor

PG

76.5

74)

Shawn Taggart-J

Memphis

FC

76.5

75)

Ahmad Nivins-Se

Saint Joseph's

PF

76

 

Player-Class

School

Pos.

Score

76)

Josh Shipp-Se

UCLA

SG

76

77)

Slava Kravtsov-E

Ukraine

C

76

78)

Justin Dentmon-Se

Washington

PG

75

79)

Tony Gaffney-Se

Massachusetts

PF

75

80)

Emir Preldzic-E

Turkey

SF

75

81)

Goran Suton-(Se)

Michigan St.

FC

74.5

82)

A.D. Vassallo-Se

Virginia Tech

GF

74.5

83)

Milenko Tepic-E

Russia

G

74.5

84)

Dante Cunningham-Se

Villanova

PF

73

85)

K.C. Rivers-(Se)

Clemson

GF

72.5

86)

Lorrenzo Wade-Se

San Diego State

GF

72

87)

Victor Claver-E

Spain

F

72

88)

Josh Heytvelt-Se

Gonzaga

FC

71.5

89)

Garrett Temple-Se

LSU

GF

71.5

90)

Daniel Hackett-J

USC

PG

70

91)

Vitor Faverani-E

Spain

FC

70

92)

Randall Hanke-Se

Providence

C

69.5

93)

Kevin Goffney-Se

Chattanooga

GF

69

94)

Brett Winkelman-(Se)

North Dakota St.

F

69

95)

Nicchaeus Doaks-(Se)

Chattanooga

F

68.5

96)

Jonas Jerebko-E

Italy

F

68.5

97)

Ade Dagunduro-Se

Nebraska

SG

68

98)

Jeff Foote-Se

Cornell

C

66

99)

Gasper Vidmar-E

Turkey

C

66

100)

Jimmy Baron-Se

Rhode Island

G

65

101)

DaJuan Summers-J

Georgetown

SF

65

102)

Jeff Adrien-Se

Connecticut

PF

64.5

103)

Stefon Jackson-(Se)

UTEP

SG

64.5

104)

Alfred Aboya-Se

UCLA

PF

64.5

105)

Wink Adams-(Se)

UNLV

PG

64.5

106)

Patrick Beverley-J

Arkansas

PG

64

107)

C.J. Anderson-(Se)

Xavier

SF

63.5

108)

Brandon Ewing-Se

Wyoming

PG

63

109)

Taylor Griffin-Se

Oklahoma

SF

62.5

110)

Eric Devendorf-J

Syracuse

PG

62

111)

Diamon Simpson-(Se)

Saint Mary's

PF

61.5

112)

Kevin Tiggs-Se

East Tenn. St.

SG

61.5

113)

Chris Bethel-Se

Fordham

SF

60.5

114)

B.J. Raymond-Se

Xavier

GF

60.5

115)

Kahiem Seawright-Se

Rhode Island

PF

60

116)

Jerome Tillman-Se

Ohio

SF

60

117)

Alonzo Gee-Se

Alabama

F

59.5

118)

Tremaine Townsend-(Se)

Cal St. Northridge

PF

59.5

119)

Alex Barnett-Se

Dartmouth

GF

59.5

120)

Kyle McAlarney-Se

Notre Dame

PG

59.5

121)

Orlando Mendez-Valdez-Se

Western Kentucky

PG

58.5

122)

Robert Vaden-(Se)

UAB

G

57

123)

Tony Danridge-Se

New Mexico

G

56.5

124)

Matt Lawrence-Se

Missouri

SG

56

125)

Greg Paulus-(Se)

Duke

PG

55.5

126)

Austin Johnson-Se

Oklahoma

PG

55

127)

Lewis Clinch-Se

Georgia Tech

G

53.5

128)

A.J. Abrams-(Se)

Texas

PG

53

129)

Tyson Johnson-Se

Wyoming

F

53

130)

Kyle Spain-Se

San Diego State

GF

52.5

131)

Russell Hicks-(Se)

Florida Int.

C

52.5

132)

Rob Diggs-Se

GWU

F

51

133)

Lamont Mack-Se

Charlotte

F

47.5

134)

Connor Atchley-(Se)

Texas

FC

45.5

135)

Marcus Ginyard-(Se)

North Carolina

G

43.5

136)

Josh Akognon-Se

Cal St. Fullerton

PG

43

137)

Matt Kingsley-Se

Stephen Austin

FC

41.5

138)

Fendi Onobun-(Se)

Arizona

F

41

139)

Wynton Witherspoon-(Se)

GWU

GF

40.5

140)

Charlie Coley-Se

Charlotte

F

37

141)

J'Nathan Bullock-Se

Cleveland State

SF

36

142)

Bobby Frasor-Se

North Carolina

G

34

143)

Andrew Lovedale-Se

Davidson

FC

34

144)

Steve Harley-Se

Nebraska

G

33.5

145)

Rogers Barnes-Se

Morgan State

G

20.5

(Please click HERE for the 2008 rankings)

(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Sactown Royalty

You must be a member of Sactown Royalty to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Sactown Royalty. You should read them.

Join Sactown Royalty

You must be a member of Sactown Royalty to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Sactown Royalty. You should read them.

Spinner

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9347_tracker