FanPost

2009 NBA DRAFT – DALT99 SYSTEM PLAYER RANKINGS (Post #2) with Statistical Analysis

INDIVIDUAL PLAYER ANALYSIS 

Below is my analysis of my system's findings for the top 10 ranked players. (Note: click on the player's names to see a YouTube highlight video of that player. Click on the player's score and height (where applicable) to see a different highlight video.)

Blake Griffin (103), 6'10" - Yes, I DID double check my numbers. Actually I have probably checked them about 10 fricken times. 103 does seem a BIT high but as we all know, the dude is a rebounding machine. 17.3 per game?? That's nuts. That's not all though. He also throws in a meager 27.3 points on 65.4% FG shooting. Yah. Fricken' nuts. All this as a 19 year old sophomore. He also gets huge props in my book for showing that he's not just a guy that is peaking early. His freshman season scored a 97 (which would have scored him at a 94.5 if he would have duplicated those stats this season) which shows that he is still improving at a good rate. Negatives? Well, height (and wingspan) is really the only thing you can statistically look to when comparing him to all other power forwards in history. Well that and the (major?) fact that he is no marksman from the 3-pt stripe. Of course you could also wish his blocks were over the average number of 1.4 per game. It will be interesting to see if he can carry his rebounding prowess to the NBA. It may take a few years, but by the time he is 24 or 25, I think he will be at the point where we will know for sure just how good he really is.

Ricky Rubio (99.5), 6'4" - An extraordinary passer. Amazing court vision, flair and ball-handling ability. By far the best assist numbers in the draft at 10.6 (6.1/23 minutes) per game with ACB in Spain. That is phenomenal. His scoring average of 17.4 is nothing to complain about either for an 18 year old point guard. 4.5 rebounds per game shows he is willing to go into the paint and hustle. He actually has a career rebound average of nearly 6 per game. His steal rate of 3.8 this season is as amazing as his career 4.76 steals per game average. His game has been improving every year in three critical areas: points per game (12.5, 10.1, 18.2 and 17.4), assist average (4.8, 4.8, 7.0 and 10.6) and assist/turnover ratio (0.9, 1.8, 1.9 and 2.0). He still does turn the ball over a bit too much and shoots a slightly alarming 40.8% career FG shooting which is not showing any improvement.

Tyreke Evans (99), 6'5" - Terrible assist/turnover rate (1.08), 3-pt% (27.4) and...and......well, that's just about it. He's a freshman? Really? He's actually an "old" freshman at 19 already so I guess you could say he's a freshmore. Statistically I am super impressed with his ability to score 23.6 points per game while shooting ¼ of his shots from 3-pt range at 27%. He is obviously a scorer first and not a "true point guard" but his assist average of 5.4 is actually better than average for a shooting guard. Much better than average. For a point guard however, that number is not very impressive. There is no doubt that with Evans, you are getting a scorer first but he shows enough point guard skills to play the position competently. 2.9 steals and 1.1 blocks per game is also way above average for a combo guard. I haven't even mentioned his 7.4 rebounds a game. He's a freshman? Seriously though, I don't know how many NBA teams where Evans will flourish in. He needs the ball in his hands a LOT to be effective, but he is usually looking to score, not set up teammates. Only a team that's willing to be run by a "point-shooting guard" will allow Evans to play to his strengths so any team with an established point guard will probably not work for him.

Ty Lawson (98), 5'11" - Please see my post called "The Case for Ty Lawson" if you haven't already.

*Update* - Due to his combine results, he has dropped to 98 score.

James Harden (94.5), 6'5" - Solid. Really no major weaknesses. Rates strongly in points (22.5), assists (4.7), and free throw attempts (8.6) per game for a shooting guard. Just a bit above average in FG shooting and steals at 49% and 1.8 respectively. The only negative I can even come up with is that he did not improve on his freshman year in a large way. In fact if he would have come out last year, his score would have been a 96.5. I have seen this before though and the reason is probably because defenses this season really started keying in on stopping Harden. I am expecting a great career from JH13.

Stephen Curry (93.5), 6'3" - To me, of all the players in this year's draft, Curry is the most fascinating on a statistical level. He is a lights-out scorer (33.9) who throws up tons of shots. A prolific 3-pt shooter: half his FG attempts are threes with a career percentage of 41.4. After last year, his running mate Jason Richards leaves and he is stuck with the point guard duties. Lo and behold, as usual, Curry throws up a whopping 687 shots in 34 games (20.2 per game) but amazingly increases his assist average from 3.5 last season to 6.6 this season. His turnovers go up, unsurprisingly, but so does his assist/turnover rate to a respectable 1.5 for a combo guard. He may not be a very good defender but his fantastic steal rate of 3.0 per game shows that he is not asleep on that end of the floor. I look forward to seeing how he fares in the NBA.

Jrue Holiday (93), 6'4" - LOL. Wow, talk about a totally different player from Curry. You might be wondering how Holiday can be rated about the exact same as Curry when they are so different. One reason is class. If this would have been his junior year instead of his freshman year with stats like he put up, he would only score an 86.5. Another major issue is the school. UCLA's schedule is a bit tougher than Davidson's. Jrue really reminds me a TON of Russell Westbrook from last year. Both are from UCLA, have average assist numbers (5.5) and meager scoring averages (12.5) but are tough competitors with good but above average athleticism that seem to know how to play to their strengths on the court. Just like Curry, I am looking forward to seeing how good Holiday really is but I have a feeling that Curry will be the better pro. It's way too early to say so by statistics but It's my gut.

Hasheem Thabeet (92.5), 7'2" - He's tall. Very tall.

Oh yah, statistics? Well, he's improving his score every year! He blocks a whole bunch of shots (5.3) and grabs lots and lots of rebounds (13.6) and when he shoots they usually go in (64% FG). Seriously, those stats are impressive. I do wonder if he knows how to pass (0.6 assists per game) but really he is one of the best prospects at the center position since Greg Oden. The knock on him seems to be his basketball IQ but if he keeps improving the way he has been, he may just stumble into being one of the best centers in the league. Maybe not, but, at a 92.5 score, his stats when matched up to every other center in the past 25 years, doesn't come out half bad.

DeJuan Blair (92), 6'6" - NBrans is almost dead on when he says to just pass up on 6'6" power forwards. 99.9% of the time I would completely agree. DeJuan Blair is that other 0.1%. He is an absolute beast with a 7'3" wingspan! He is the fourth highest rated player (behind Blake Griffin, Stephen Curry and Lester Hudson) based on my main stat formulas (points, rebounds and assists only) in this draft class before negative modifiers are subtracted and secondary stats and intangibles are analyzed. There have been a couple recent 6'7" power forwards that have made an impact in the NBA. Let's compare stats with one shall we?

DeJuan Blair (92, Soph): 27.3 minutes, 1.2 assists, 12.3 boards, 15.7 points, 1.5 steals, 1.0 block, 59.3% FG.

Craig Smith (87.5, Senior): 36.3 minutes, 3.0 assists, 9.4 boards, 17.6 points, 1.2 steals, 0.8 blocks, 57.3% FG.

12.3 boards in 27.3 minutes is almost unheard of for a 6'6" power forward in the Big East. He even averages nearly 6 OFFENSIVE rebounds a game in only 27 minutes. I would actually compare Blair more to Paul Millsap and Millsap is turning out to be a very good player. Blair will be a force in the NBA but I think it will mostly be as a rebounder. Scoring against and defending NBA power forwards will be rough. I think that he will be drafted in the late teens somewhere so I doubt he will be on the board when the Kings pick which is fine with me. With all that being said, I still don't want to take a chance on a 6'6" power forward unless he can shoot the three or take 15 seconds to back down his opponent in the paint. Blair can't.

Jeff Teague (91.5), 6'1" - I don't know why, but when I watch him I get a little bit of a Mike Bibby vibe but I guess that's just me. I think it's because of his accurate set-shot three point stroke (44.1%) and that he's a scoring point guard. Actually, his stats are closer to what Nick Van Exel's were for whatever that's worth. At 23.5 ppg, Teague can really fill it up. As a sophomore he ranks very highly. Not too many sophomore point guards were much better than him as a scorer, outdoing past sophomore draftees such as Mike Bibby (21.4 ppg), Baron Davis (20.7 ppg) Chauncey Billups (23.4 ppg) and Gilbert Arenas (22.3 ppg). He even outscored highly praised shooting guard James Harden this season. Can he bring this scoring punch to the NBA is the question. Teague only dished out 4.4 assists per game which is way below par for top flight point guard prospects and his assist/turnover rate of 1.06/1 is frighteningly bad. Basically, by my stats, he really is a shooting guard that doesn't really play the point to set his teammates up. His steal rate of 2.3 is barely above average while his 48.5% FG shooting is rather impressive. Whoever picks Jeff Teague is getting a guard that will be able to score a lot. I think he would be a great pick for a team that has a ball-handling shooting guard like Dwyane Wade or Kobe Bryant or a team with great interior defense that needs a scoring point guard. I don't see too many teams like that though at least not in the range where Teague is expected to be drafted.

(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)

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