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Cracking Petrie

Let me preface this by saying that I do not watch college basketball.  At all.  You could tell me that Poopscoop McGee led the nation in scoring this year and I would believe you.  The entirety of my opinions on this draft class are based solely on what I read; mostly, other peoples' opinions of this draft class.

So, this has really been a learning experience for me over the last couple of weeks being involved with trying to figure out who we think the Kings should take in this draft and who we think they will take in this draft, with varying degrees of overlap.  There is, of course, the nebulous situación de Rubio- I'm pretty sure that most of us would be happy and excited to see the young Spaniard in a Kings jersey, and most of us would agree that if he's available at #4 we're definitely taking him.

Beyond that, things get more interesting.  It almost seems like every day brings a new "buzz man", and I learn about them and wonder about them (Holiday, Evans, Kleine).  It occurred to me though that something doesn't quite feel right about this process.  The part of the conversation about who we think the Kings should take is fine; we all have our various opinions on players and on the direction the team should take.  I've been feeling, however, like maybe the conversation about who we think the Kings will take is lacking.  I'm hoping this post will provide a bit of an impetus for that conversation.

I think what may be bugging me a bit right now is that most of the players we've been talking about the Kings taking with their first pick may have a lot of good things going for them, but they don't feel right to me.  They don't feel like Petrie picks.  I won't pretend that I've got GP all figured out (though I do feel like I understand Petrie a gazillion times better than Chad Ford does), but I think we can look at his drafting history and identify a few things that would give a pretty good indication of what he's likely to do this time:

1.  The number one attribute that Petrie values in a player is a high level of skill.  Primarily shooting skill, I would contend, but also passing and ballhandling.  Not size, not athletic ability (one exception I could come up with was Tariq Abdul Wahad, who I recall as being a freak athlete with little else to offer.  Maybe Petrie learned his leason?).  That's not to say that the players he drafts don't have size or athleticism, but this is not the reason they were drafted.  Peja, Hedo, Shawes, and others all have good size for their position, but they were drafted because of their (offensive) skills, not their size.

2.  We're not likely to trade down, or up for that matter.  If Petrie really falls for Rubio (or Griffin), I could see him trying to put something together to try to get him, but my gut says this won't happen.  I think in regards to Rubio, assuming that's Geoff's top choice, he'll sit patiently in the 4 spot that the Lottery Gods damned him with and take him if he falls to us.  Otherwise, he'll happily take the guy that he loves slightly less, whoever that may be.  Even if he's pretty sure he could get his man later by trading down, I don't see this happening either.  For one thing, it's just not Geoff's style.  I'm sure just about every year we could've traded down a bit and still gotten our guy.  Also, there would have to be another team that wants our 4 spot bad enough to give us a worthwhile offer for it, and it appears that this year's draft doesn't really setup that scenario very well.

3.  Geoff Petrie is his own expert.  Buzz doesn't matter, hype doesn't matter.  He trusts his scouts and he trusts himself.  And he's almost always right.

Now, moving on to the speculation.  Again, I'm very open about my ignorance of pretty much all of the players we could draft.  There is, however, one player that makes me wonder why we haven't really been talking about him much yet.  Stephen Curry.  My impression, loose as it may be, is that he is probably the most skilled player in this draft maybe other than Rubio (and Griffin?).  And he's got pretty good size.  And he plays our position of biggest need.  Maybe he's not necessarily a "true point guard", but what would give us even the slightest indication that Petrie is looking for a "true point guard"?  It's been talked about often on StR before that the Princeton Offense doesn't really need a "true point guard" to distribute the ball.  It needs someone who can pass, and primarily someone who can shoot.  It looks to me like Curry would fit this role quite well.  When studying up on him, the player that came to mind was Mike Bibby.  Coincidentally, I checked out his profile on Draft Express and they list his "Best Case" as Mr. Bibby himself (and his "Worst Case" as Jannero Pargo, but we can ignore that).

Is Curry a reach at #4?  Who wouldn't be considered a reach this year?  Was JT a reach at #12?  Spence at #10?  So why not Curry?  Seriously, please tell me why not, since a lot of you know a lot more than I do about these guys.  Maybe we can at least get Amick to write a blog entry titled "Kings might maybe should be interested in Curry" so that Chad Ford will pickup on it and have us taking him in his next mock.

 

 

(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)

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Curry does seem like a "Petrie Guy"

but he would be a HUGE reach @ #4. I think that the main reason is that there will most likely be players with higher potential than Curry available at #4. With the fourth overall pick we really need to try for a “star”. Not that I think that Curry won’t be a good player, just that guys like Rubio, Evans, Holiday, and Jennings have higher potential.
 
Although in the end it doesn’t matter what I think, it matters what Geoff thinks, and he could very well pick Curry.

Also, Spence was the tenth pick, not the seventh.

"I'm too weird ta live but much too rare ta die"

by aKingisBored on Jun 4, 2009 11:54 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Gah!

I started getting lazy in hour #3 of my post. Thanks, I made the edit.

Also thanks for your input on Curry. I agree that the percieved lack of star potential is probably what keeps Curry off our radar for now, but as you pointed-out it matters what Petrie thinks not what everyone else thinks, and I would contend that Geoff has done a better job of evaluating “star potential” recently than most other people have.

by AnotherStupidSN on Jun 4, 2009 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Gerald Wallace? Not athletic?

"Or, as Randy Jackson would say: Not feelin’ it, dawg."
-bench-blob- posting virgin.

by jjham15 on Jun 4, 2009 2:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Gerald Wallace very much not "not athletic"

But how much skill are you going to pick at #25? I doubt we grabbed him ahead of many other players with far superior basketball skills. I think the profile gets a little muddled later in the draft. That’s why I decided not to use Martin (or Douby) as an example of drafting for skill, I used Peja, Hedo, and Hawes (and I could add JT to that as well).

by AnotherStupidSN on Jun 4, 2009 3:07 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm pretty sure I had more skill than Wallace when he was drafted

I should have given Petrie a call. Maybe he didn’t know.

by Charlieb on Jun 4, 2009 3:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm so thankful G-Dub is gone

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Jun 4, 2009 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Geez pookey

You’re a little cranky today, no?

Not that I disagree with you, I just think you could use a drink.

Cheers!

by AnotherStupidSN on Jun 4, 2009 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He

Father of the "Natt this!" movement.

by Aykis16 on Jun 4, 2009 3:46 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm glad G-Dub is gone

Do you really want me to rehash this over & over?

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Jun 4, 2009 6:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

No. No way, no how

"We are in the business of kicking butt and business is very, very good." - Charles Barkley

by Bluejohn on Jun 4, 2009 6:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

See

There is wisdom around these parts still.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Jun 4, 2009 6:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

On this date,

June 4, 2009, the implied question is, “Who will Geoff Petrie pick at #4?”

So lets throw names around. What’s the harm if we’re wrong.

My opinion: Rubio if he’s there. I’ll take a wild flyer on DeRozan if Rubio is gone.

My logic: a) I still think Rubio is Petrie’s guy and the best talent if he’s there at #4.

Lower their expectations and rise to met them

by left hand on Jun 4, 2009 1:01 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I didn't finish.

I just goobed.

My logic cont’d: b) “A Petrie guy” doesn’t mean anything. Geoff Petrie evaluates who he thinks is the best player available. He does use his criteria according to his experience and judgement, like everyone. But this is a new circumstance. It’s a top-five pick. I’m certain the parameters are not the same.

One observation: Hawes was not a reach at #10. We weren’t convinced. But that was about right, even at the time. And Thompson couldn’t really be considered that much of a reach. There was a lot of scuttlebutt that he would have been taken in the next couple of picks. It seems like he was projected pre-draft as just outside the lottery. That’s three or four picks early. The only reach I can think of was Jason Williams, and that kind of worked out.

Lower their expectations and rise to met them

by left hand on Jun 4, 2009 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

OK, one more.

Then I’ll get back to work and out of the way.

Curry would be a mind-boggling reach at #4. #8-9 would be a reach. Late lottery makes sense. He may dazzle everyone and we’ll all be talking about the stiffs he was passed up for, but there’s no way he goes top 5.

Lower their expectations and rise to met them

by left hand on Jun 4, 2009 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You may be right

But this article seems to disagree. I know that the article only references where Curry says he’s “recieved interest” from (take that with a grain of salt), but I’m not sure why we would get hung up on where any of these lottery players are projected to land, especially among all the talk that there’s very little difference in player ability between picks 4-10 (as the current storyline goes).

I’m just wondering why the Kings seem to be completely left out of the Curry conversation. If there’s all this talk about him going to NY at #8, what’s so crazy about going 4 picks earlier in a draft with no sure thing at #4 anyways? Especially when everyone knows our biggest need is PG.

by AnotherStupidSN on Jun 4, 2009 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Regarding JT

DX had him 14th on their final mock draft.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Jun 4, 2009 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

'ere ya go.

OK, now I’ll go back to work, forreals.

Lower their expectations and rise to met them

by left hand on Jun 4, 2009 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’m not sure Curry meets the 1st criteria (good breakdown by the way, that’s the rules we know about Geoff). Curry is a good shooter, but his game is limited in most other areas. Geoff likes versatility more than shooting and Curry does not offer it.

I think Ford may have nailed Geoff on Jrue because one thing he does offer is lots of versatility although he is currently only a shell of the player he could be and needs to be. Than again, I’m not giving Ford any credit. More the fact that Jrue is the first and only player yet to be brought into town and he has pencil in some name.

by bignerd on Jun 4, 2009 1:32 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I think we have aready had this conversation...

here. I don’t think the Kings take Curry unless they obtain another big to go with him. Curry is a great shooter, his dad was a great shooter, his brother is a great shooter but great shooters need post players to open the floor. Griffin is the only big in this draft that could open the type of doors Curry needs, Griffin is not available and the Kings don’t have another player like Griffin (yet) that fits the bill. If the Kings had won the lottery and if they were able to obtain another lottery pick then I very well could have seen Curry in a Kings jersey.

"Or, as Randy Jackson would say: Not feelin’ it, dawg."
-bench-blob- posting virgin.

by jjham15 on Jun 4, 2009 2:21 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Hmm

I hadn’t read that post you linked to. It looks like my impression of Curry agrees with yours: that he’s a highly skilled shooter who could fit perfectly in our offense. Apparently where I stray is that I think that might be worth the #4 pick. I’d probably be singing a different tune if I was completely sold on Holiday or Evans or any of those other kids. I’m just not. I see as much “problem potential” with those guys as I do “star potential”.

Really though, is Jrue Holiday that much more of a reach at #4 than Curry is? One of them was a hot High School prospect that put up lousy numbers in his first college season (I know, he played out of position, blah blah blah), the other has never been considered a top prospect but put up big-time stud numbers in college.

I just want Curry to come for a workout so I can get a sense of what Petrie thinks of him. If Petrie seems unimpressed, I’ll know it’s for good reason. But if he has a lot of good things to say about him like he did for Holiday, then I think Curry should be considered at least as much of a possibility as Jrue. Maybe though the fact that we haven’t scheduled Curry for a workout says enough.

by AnotherStupidSN on Jun 4, 2009 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think Curry is one of the few NBA ready players in this draft but...

his ceiling is much lower than a few of the other picks. I think he is the next generation Mike Bibby with bigger hops and not as much muscle- and maybe not the point guard credentials of #10. I’m with you on Jrue, I really don’t like poor shooting college guards, they all make me think of Larry Hughes- a guy who could have been GREAT if he could only shoot. The major upside to drafting an Evans or Holliday at #4 versus Curry is pure size/length. For Thabeet doubters, you can’t teach 7’-3" and for people who look at guys and wonder, why can’t that guy play defense- it often times comes down to physical attributes. Curry sports a +1.5" wingspan to height ratio- Jrue +3.75"- Evans +7.25" (wow). Now you can’t read everything into these numbers but on the defensive end both Evans and Holliday have a decided advantage and it has shown. Offensively, Curry is the worst finisher of the group and at the NBA level he will need more space than the other two to release his shot due to sheer lack of size and length(although he will still be a better shooter).

This draft is totally uninspiring to me after Griffin and Rubio. If the Kings want a defensive point and they can’t land Rubio, I think I’m leaning towards DeRozan to play the three, Hansbrough/Lawal with the #23 and Beaubois with the #31- +8.5" wingspan/height to go with a 39" max vert and all kinds of speed and quickness.

"Or, as Randy Jackson would say: Not feelin’ it, dawg."
-bench-blob- posting virgin.

by jjham15 on Jun 4, 2009 7:41 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

i agree

DeRozan!!!!! :)

Oakland Raider fan till I DIE!!!

by Robby1987 on Jun 4, 2009 8:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

As I have posted before

Curry at #4 with Ricky Rubo off the table, makes great sense to me.

Curry is the promise of what is, Holliday of what may be

Petrie-wise: Curry is a pure skill player – a leader, a shooter, a winner, he has pedigree, he has maturity, he has BB IQ, Davidson schooling (Princeton like education, the kid has actual IQ), performs well under pressure, and was one of the big (pleasant) surprises at the draft combine.

As for wing span: if you throw Tyreke Evans and Steph Curry off of the Tower Bridge at the same time – neither dude can fly, they both hit the water at the same time.

by betweentheeyes on Jun 4, 2009 8:50 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

But if we make them hold on to the edge with their finger before making them fall, that extra 7" closer to the water might save Evans life ; )

Scoring is only one facet of the game. Curry is the Davidson team where Evans clearly has superior talent around him at Memphis. Evans actually out FG%ed Curry by a mere .1%, out rebounded him, was pretty equal in steals per 40 and played far superior defense. Add to this the fact that Evams is a freshman, Curry a junior and the son of an NBA player. Curry is a more polished player in year one, but after that who the hell knows. I’m sure he will play a role in the NBA for a decade but I’m not sure he has a true position, in short, he is a system type player like Mike Bibby. Evans might bust- William Avery, Shawn Livingston- he might be a Aaron McKey type or he might be very special and create his own name in the NBA.

"Or, as Randy Jackson would say: Not feelin’ it, dawg."
-bench-blob- posting virgin.

by jjham15 on Jun 4, 2009 9:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

good counter

though, as in betweeners (a subject near and dear to me) they both sit on the 1-2 fence; Curry is a shooitng guard who can play some point and is sized as a point, Evans is a shooting guard who can play some point – maybe.

Both show promise: one has a cherished set of skills with a quesitonable NBA physique (though as I mentioned the combine showed Curry has physical skills) the other has a cherished NBA physique with a questionable set of NBA skills (3 pt shooting %, FT %, BB IQ).

What do you think of James Harden?

by betweentheeyes on Jun 4, 2009 10:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Harden...

First up, I am a huge A’s fan sooo Harden is kind of a curse word around me. Before the combine I was a hater, I’ve watched enough of him to not be impressed at all. He looks slow, meticulous and a player who put up nice stats in a very suspect Pac-10. I don’t see the next Brandon Roy, hell, I don’t see the next Eric Gordon but I think he’s a good starting point. Harden is too slow to create his own shot in the NBA. He isn’t tall enough to use his body like Paul Pierce and 10% body fat is pathetic for a 19 year old two guard. I’m thinking Dennis Scott because of his weight or maybe a poor mans Nick Anderson or maybe Lamond Murray.

Now, he showed up at the the pre-draft camp. I did not expect either the 37" vert or the 17 bench presses. He is strong, long and can jump…on paper. But I don’t think he uses the vert on the court. It’s nice to see those physical skills but I see him as a product of the system- a guy who trained for the pre-draft camp and helped himself. I guess I’m still not impressed but I don’t think I have to be because he’s the last guy the Kings will draft and I don’t see him ever coming close to the production of Kevin Martin.

"Or, as Randy Jackson would say: Not feelin’ it, dawg."
-bench-blob- posting virgin.

by jjham15 on Jun 4, 2009 10:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

first - let me establish the obvious

I know nothing. In regards to the draft – I am caught up in the hype and the process. I am a life long NBA fan and as such, the draft is a very important part of the process. I have found through the years that I don’t watch enough college games and I can’t pick out a Kevin Martin from a Quincy Douby.

So, I read. Blogs, Mocks, Thorpe, Ford, Simmons, Hollinger, HoopHype, SI.com, DX, and used to read the Monter. If a guy is rated high, then he must be good…

Harden has been up on the boards all year. He was the PAC-10 PoY. The biggest knock on him was his questionable athletecisim which was the addresed in the combine. He is a skill player, a control player, I think he has to be of interest to Geoff Petrie based on his high rating. But that is all I know – so…

my argument is based on my knowlege of reading other people’s assessment. (which coffee tastes best? here is our top ten list). So, thanks for your input – and in conclusion:
In Petrie We Trust

by betweentheeyes on Jun 4, 2009 11:34 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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