But one thing I wonder is if they take into consideration who is doing the drafting which is something statistical analysis cannot fully detail. Anything outside the top 5 may be a crapshoot, but it’s much less of a crapshoot if the pick belongs to a Geoff Petrie or a RC Buford.

ESPN’s analysis has the Kings as the 23rd best drafting team in their analysis, which should initiate another fanpost by Mr. West. Unfortunately, they are taking the last 20 years (including Never Nervous) which, as vfettke notes above, includes some non-Petrie awful drafts.

I’m also not sure if including 2nd round picks makes a lot of sense, since I think there is probably more risk taking there, but it is what it is.

Here is the data for the Kings in the Petrie era. ESPN’s explanation of the column headings:

The EWA column shows the player’s actual production, while the eEWA column shows the expected value of that draft slot. The “net” column is the difference between the two.

Draft Pick Player EWA eEWA NET
2008 43 Patrick Ewing Jr. 0.00 0.20 -0.20
2008 12 Jason Thompson 3.32 2.80 0.52
2008 42 Sean Singletary -0.65 0.20 -0.85
2007 10 Spencer Hawes 1.26 3.10 -1.84
2006 19 Quincy Douby -0.35 1.80 -2.15
2005 23 Francisco Garcia 1.84 1.40 0.44
2004 48 Ricky Minard 0.00 -0.10 0.10
2004 26 Kevin Martin 6.96 1.20 5.76
2002 57 Corsley Edwards -0.02 -0.40 0.38
2001 54 Maurice Jeffers 0.00 -0.30 0.30
2001 25 Gerald Wallace 5.40 1.30 4.10
2000 16 Hedo Turkoglu 4.26 2.20 2.06
2000 45 Jabari Smith -0.08 0.10 -0.18
1999 45 Ryan Robertson -0.01 0.10 -0.11
1998 7 Jason Williams 3.26 3.80 -0.54
1998 36 Jerome James -0.09 0.50 -0.59
1997 11 Tariq Abdul-Wahad 0.07 2.90 -2.83
1997 39 Anthony Johnson 0.12 0.40 -0.28
1996 14 Peja Stojakovic 6.14 2.40 3.74
1996 41 Jason Sasser -0.01 0.30 -0.31
1995 51 Dejan Bodiroga 0.00 -0.20 0.20
1995 47 Tyus Edney 0.44 0.00 0.44
1995 13 Corliss Williamson 2.61 2.60 0.01

Sorry for the formatting, I didn’t have enough time to pretty it up.