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ESPN Insider is running an interesting series examining the value of certain draft positions using historical data and Hollingeresque PER and VORP type analysis. The linked story and chart shows that we are justified in having high expectations for #4, but we really need to temper our expectations at #23. In fact, the overall theme of the series appears to be that picks outside the top 5 or so are simply crapshoots for the most part.

9 months ago Tiny longtimelistenerfirsttimecaller 13 comments 0 recs  | 

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Unfortunately its an Insider article

But one thing I wonder is if they take into consideration who is doing the drafting which is something statistical analysis cannot fully detail. Anything outside the top 5 may be a crapshoot, but it’s much less of a crapshoot if the pick belongs to a Geoff Petrie or a RC Buford.

www.mancancook.net

by vfettke on Jun 4, 2009 5:52 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

Probably end up looking something like

this

For team by team rankings

Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott

by Kfan in Korea on Jun 4, 2009 6:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe

But that’s a team measurement, not a GM measurement. For example, if you took out the Petrie era I bet the Kings would be much lower.

www.mancancook.net

by vfettke on Jun 4, 2009 7:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

For sure

the 5 drafts before GP, that are included in those rankings turned out very bad.

Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott

by Kfan in Korea on Jun 4, 2009 8:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

yup yup

I’ll take Geoff Petrie at the 23 spot.

Victory is tasty.

by iashwash on Jun 5, 2009 6:31 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Team Analysis

ESPN’s analysis has the Kings as the 23rd best drafting team in their analysis, which should initiate another fanpost by Mr. West. Unfortunately, they are taking the last 20 years (including Never Nervous) which, as vfettke notes above, includes some non-Petrie awful drafts.

I’m also not sure if including 2nd round picks makes a lot of sense, since I think there is probably more risk taking there, but it is what it is.

Here is the data for the Kings in the Petrie era. ESPN’s explanation of the column headings:


The EWA column shows the player’s actual production, while the eEWA column shows the expected value of that draft slot. The “net” column is the difference between the two.

Draft Pick Player EWA eEWA NET
2008 43 Patrick Ewing Jr. 0.00 0.20 -0.20
2008 12 Jason Thompson 3.32 2.80 0.52
2008 42 Sean Singletary -0.65 0.20 -0.85
2007 10 Spencer Hawes 1.26 3.10 -1.84
2006 19 Quincy Douby -0.35 1.80 -2.15
2005 23 Francisco Garcia 1.84 1.40 0.44
2004 48 Ricky Minard 0.00 -0.10 0.10
2004 26 Kevin Martin 6.96 1.20 5.76
2002 57 Corsley Edwards -0.02 -0.40 0.38
2001 54 Maurice Jeffers 0.00 -0.30 0.30
2001 25 Gerald Wallace 5.40 1.30 4.10
2000 16 Hedo Turkoglu 4.26 2.20 2.06
2000 45 Jabari Smith -0.08 0.10 -0.18
1999 45 Ryan Robertson -0.01 0.10 -0.11
1998 7 Jason Williams 3.26 3.80 -0.54
1998 36 Jerome James -0.09 0.50 -0.59
1997 11 Tariq Abdul-Wahad 0.07 2.90 -2.83
1997 39 Anthony Johnson 0.12 0.40 -0.28
1996 14 Peja Stojakovic 6.14 2.40 3.74
1996 41 Jason Sasser -0.01 0.30 -0.31
1995 51 Dejan Bodiroga 0.00 -0.20 0.20
1995 47 Tyus Edney 0.44 0.00 0.44
1995 13 Corliss Williamson 2.61 2.60 0.01

Sorry for the formatting, I didn’t have enough time to pretty it up.

by otis29 on Jun 5, 2009 6:57 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I wonder what the aggravate value of draft picks came out to be

I bet only the Spurs have lower value of picks in that time frame.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Jun 5, 2009 9:10 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

And the Lakers

That kinda thing.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Jun 5, 2009 9:10 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You mean

aggregate value.

The draft lottery has reinforced my belief that there are not enough bad words in the English language.

by LeaguePassAddict on Jun 5, 2009 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Your value to this site

is aggravate value! Only when we misspell, but still. ;p

Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott

by Kfan in Korea on Jun 5, 2009 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Yes Momm

I did mean that. Sorry.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Jun 5, 2009 9:14 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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