How We Define a Point Guard, Part II
by section214 on Jul 13, 2009 6:00 AM PDT
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We need this guy!
I was working on a little PG analysis, and all of a sudden Exhibit G pops up with an outstanding post on how to define a point guard. Such is life when you share the same desk at the StR corporate office, and I really hope that "G" didn’t need the prescription heart medicine that he left in the upper right hand drawer. But I’m not bitter, and that’s the important thing.
I agree with what "G" covers in his post. A point guard is not defined by passing alone. Further, sometimes we think of a certain point guard as a passing PG, when the stats ultimately tell otherwise.
So my new goal became to find out who are the true facilitators in the NBA today. Who are the guards that spend the most time and energy setting up their teammates, and could this be broken down into some sort of statistical form?
The following is a compilation of last year’s NBA starting point guards (please don’t quibble with the Jarrett Jack over T.J. Ford argument, or the Monta Ellis is not a PG argument – it does not really change the overall numbers that much). "Shots Per Game" represents shots and free throws taken (two FT’s = 1 shot), "Dispenses" represents the total of shots/assists/turnovers totaled per game. All numbers are rounded.
Now, let’s take a quick moment to cover what these numbers don’t represent. They don’t tell the story of how many times a teammate defiles a potential assist by missing the shot, but let’s call that a relatively static number. Ray Allen and Paul Pierce miss shots, too. Certainly, point guards benefit from playing with better players. But they are also supposed to make the players that they are playing with better.
This study does not reflect at all on what type of an offense that a particular team is running, and how that might impact a PG’s numbers. For example, if you placed Beno Udrih in the Phoenix offense and Steve Nash in Sacramento’s offense, how would it impact their respective numbers? Or is it a chicken and the egg thing? That is, if Nash were in Sacramento, would the offensive philosophy change? Be that as it may, these numbers do not delve into that conversation.
There is also no reference here to shooting efficiency or defense, and this is in no way an attempt to rate point guards on their overall ability and value. This is solely an exercise to find out who are truly "pass first" point guards, and who are selfish, gunning SOB’s. Let’s take a look –
NAME
SHOTS PER GAME
ASSISTS PER GAME
TURNOVERS PER GAME
TOTAL "DISPENSES" PER GAME
ASSIST PERCENTAGE
Kidd
8
9
2
19
47%
Calderon
11
9
2
22
41%
Nash
13
10
3
26
38%
Rondo
11
8
3
22
36%
Williams,D
17
11
3
31
35%
Duhon
10
7
3
20
35%
Paul
19
11
3
33
33%
Billups
16
8
2
26
31%
Chalmers
9
5
2
16
31%
Davis
16
8
3
27
30%
Sessions
12
6
2
20
30%
Felton
14
7
3
24
29%
Miller
15
7
2
24
29%
Blake
10
5
2
17
29%
Udrih
11
5
2
18
28%
Stuckey
13
5
2
20
25%
Conley
10
4
2
16
25%
James,M
10
4
2
16
25%
Rose
16
6
3
25
24%
Bibby
14
5
2
21
24%
Ford
14
5
2
21
24%
Nelson
14
5
2
21
24%
Harris
20
7
3
30
23%
Parker
20
7
3
30
23%
Fisher
9
3
1
13
23%
Westbrook
16
5
3
24
21%
Williams,M
15
4
2
21
19%
Brooks
11
3
2
16
19%
Foye
16
4
2
22
18%
Ellis
19
4
3
26
15%
AVERAGE
14
6
2
22
27%
It is not really surprising that Calderon, Kidd and Nash top the list. My favorite two PG’s in the league rank #5 and #7 - In spite of the fact that Deron Williams and Chris Paul III take a lot of shots, they still initiate to their colleagues a comparatively high percentage of the time.
But there are some surprises on this list. Beno is right in the middle, which shocked me a little. Derrick Rose ranks #19, Devin Harris #23, Tony Parker #24, Russell Westbrook #26. Boy, I’m sure we don’t have any of those chuckers (note sarcasm). Is Derrick Rose not thought of as a pass first PG? Isn’t Tony Parker Robin to Tim Duncan’s Batman (and does that make Manu Alfred or Commissioner Gordon?)?
That gives me an idea – let’s look at the guys that have been mentioned with some interest in posts and threads over the past several weeks:
| Calderon | 11 | 9 | 2 | 22 | 41% |
| Rondo | 11 | 8 | 3 | 22 | 36% |
| Chalmers | 9 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 31% |
| Sessions | 12 | 6 | 2 | 20 | 30% |
| Felton | 14 | 7 | 3 | 24 | 29% |
| Miller | 15 | 7 | 2 | 24 | 29% |
| Conley | 10 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 25% |
| Harris | 20 | 7 | 3 | 30 | 23% |
| Westbrook | 16 | 5 | 3 | 24 | 21% |
| Brooks | 11 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 19% |
| AVERAGE | 13 | 6 | 2 | 21 | 29% |
Focusing on Harris and Westbrook here, statistically they certainly do not look like pass first PG’s. But wouldn’t you take either one of them right now? At the very least, were you not lusting for either/both of these guys prior to the drafting of Tyreke Evans?
At the end of all of this, I am left with this far too simplistic conclusion (and this pertains to on court persona, only). If Tyreke Evans develops a consistent perimeter shot, he becomes a Chauncey Billups type of point guard, maybe a Baron Davis. Evans will get his shots, but he will also involve his teammates. Reke may not become the alley-ooping highlight reel that some of us lust for, but the more effective he becomes as a scorer, the bigger the passing lanes will become and the easier it will be for him to locate wide open teammates.
Regardless, I have come to the conclusion that if Tyreke Evans does not at least have the potential to be an NBA point guard, then a lot of the guys on this list need to turn in their playmaker cards as well.
As the NBA continues to morph into a league of versatile players, the positions are going to become harder to define. Shawn Marion, Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis are all small forwards that have logged time at power forward. Dwyane Wade and Brandon Roy are two guards that also initiate the offense. You go ahead and define Kevin Durant and Carmelo Anthony. Kobe and LeBron…I don’t know how you categorize these guys other than to use the word "great" and leave it at that.
Define Evans as you please. I am going to define him as "Sacramento King," and define myself as "grateful and excited."
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Ack! My Heart!
It’s failing as a result of your sudden attack of logic! Now where are my pills….
Rec’d
Never forget: I am a complete idiot
I find this helpful: Assist percentage and assisted shot percentage last season. Credit for the chart goes to Bulletsforever.
I.e. who can set up other players, who creates shots from himself, who rather finishes other people’s setups as an off-guard/catch-and-shooter (e.g. the mentioned Bibby. Surprised?). Note where most of the point guars considered to be the best in the league reside.
If you want to trade our spare parts for Devin Harris, I have three quarters I would like to trade for your dollar
Great work
by both G and 214. Since my friends have covered all the bases, I will forgo Part III and link to my previous work on the subject.
by Tom Ziller on Jul 13, 2009 7:46 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
nice post
sheds a good light on the numbers behind some preconceived notions of current PGs in the league.
i think we need to make a distinction between whether is someone is a pure point, vs. someone who can distribute. i think Evans has shown some ability to distribute, and that should get better as he handles PG duties. with some of the guys further down than might be expected (harris, parker, etc.), it isn’t surprising to see them drop 8 or 9 assists in a game. they can score the ball so well they can draw defenders and create for teammates. Evans seems to have that same scoring ability, and i think he’ll be able to make our guys better.
sure he may never feeding tons of alley oops, but if he can slice the D on a drive and find and open man, i’ll take that.
Personally I don't care if he is a shoot first or pass first PG
What I do care about is if the team is better with him running the offense. Scoring points isn’t enough—K-Mart could score lots of points if you put the ball in his hands all the time. Rebounding isn’t enough. D helps alot, but that isn’t enough. If he is the elite PG that GP claimed him to be when he drafted him, the team must be better on both ends of the court when he is playing.
Also, it’s interesting to hear so many people now saying how young he is, how long it takes to become an NBA point guard, give hiom time etc. Are these the same people that didn’t want Rubio because it would take time for him to adjust? Are these the same people who said Tyreke was a man agaiunst boys and more NBA ready than any other point guard? Just sayin.
"Shut up and Coach!"
Vfettke
Well
If you are trying to prove someone’s hypocrisy, it might be better to isolate statements from individuals that conflict with each other. I don’t think all of the Evans supporters are using the same arguments in support of his ability to play the point. But if it’s easier to apply those arguments to the whole contingency, more power to ya.
My opinion – I’m not ready to make judgments on Tyreke’s ability to play the point long-term in the NBA after a few summer league games. That’s really where my objection lies with some of the “anti-PG” crowd. They take a look at the assist to turnover ratio from two games and somehow determine that Evans is going to be running iso plays his entire career. My question is…did they watch those games? I know I did, and I saw a guy that didn’t look out of place in that position.
StR noobs: More oxygen, less THC please.
Well put
I’m firmly in the “he’s young, let’s see how he develops camp”, but I was also saying the same thing about Rubio. I think Evans is more NBA-ready right now than Rubio or a lot of the other rookies, but he is still a rookie.
Never forget: I am a complete idiot
If I was trying to prove someone's hypocrisy, I would have
Personally, I don’t think Evans or Rubio was ready to step in and become a starting NBA point guard. Very few are. Summer League can prove whatever you want it to. Want Evans to be a star? Point to 25/10/5. Want him to be a goat? Point to his turnovers, his taking more shots than anyone else in the game, and the fact that he shoots a lousy jumper right now. His good stuff won’t look as good once he’s playing against real NBA players and his much of his bad stuff will go away with coaching and practice.
I have watched the games. I’ll be going to see one in person. But I don’t expect to come away knowing any more about his future success than I do now. More than likely he will struggle at the point. He probably won’t start most of the season. The Kings will be back in the lottery. But you know what? I think the Clips will be back in the lottery too.
Anyone who tries to make conclusive arguments based on what they see last week and this week, is doomed to failure. It’s still fun to watch. It’s still exciting to see players do great things. But in the end, just remember that Donte Greene put up 40 last year.
"Shut up and Coach!"
Vfettke
I disagree
Specifically with the statement that he will not start most of the season. Right now it is between him and Beno. Yes, Udrih has a big cap number, but I do not imagine him holding the starting spot for very long unless the staff sees a dramatic change from last season. Westphal has no loyalty to Udrih, and he’s already getting to spend time with Tyreke.
If Udrih turns things around, then it is a totally different story. And if we’re lucky enough to have that happen, then we’ve got a nice rotation of guards all of a sudden.
Never forget: I am a complete idiot
Rotaion is the key
It is pretty rare to start a rookie. But I see him getting lots of minutes.
"Shut up and Coach!"
Vfettke
by SavageBeast on Jul 13, 2009 10:31 AM PDT up reply actions
there is a combination of factors to starting
he is a #4 pick, he is on a team that won the least number of games last season, he is on a team that had a poor performing point guard, he is on a team that had a low attendance number with a historically loyal fan base who are anxious to see a new direction with new talent.
Beno is the incumbent, Beno has experience, Beno is signed for the next 4 seasons, Beno may show his improvement in pre-season. Paul Westphal is a conservative (?) Coach and may not want to start a rookie over a veteran right away.
Oh, and of course, they can always flip a coin to see who gets the season’s first start.
by betweentheeyes on Jul 13, 2009 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions
Relate?
I have to relate and make conclusions? Man you are tough!
Okay, hmm. Well I just finished reading Enders game for like the 20th time. I am always impressed by the different strategies used by each army in the battle room. You read about them and think, "Wow, that’s the strategy that will win it all" . . . right up until you read about the next strategy. Having met Card in person on a couple of occasions, I can say without a doubt the guy is a genius.
So how does this relate to the Kings, and especially the player we hope to crown as our newest royalty? Let’s take a look at what we know about last year’s team. We had plenty of scorers, we couldn’t play D inside and especially outside, and we couldn’t rebound.
While there is much we don’t know about Evans, we do know that he is fast, strong, can get to the hoop, and appears to be a pretty tough man on man defender. I believe very strongly that this was a Westphal pick. Not that everyone else didn’t agree, but does this sound like any player GP has ever picked? All three players are tough, gritty, and known to be contact guys. A big part of what we lacked last year and exactly what Westphal said we needed.
One can assume then that we are going to be tougher. I don’t believe that these are the players you pick if you are tied hand and foot to the Princeton Offense. If we start Evans, Martin, Noc, JT and Hawes, we don’t have one player on the floor who is known for being a great or even very good passer. We have plenty of scorers, we have lots of guys who can rebound, we have guys who can draw fouls, and we have a surprising amount of speed for the bulk and height that is also there. I don’t see Evans as Lebron or Kobe. He probably won’t carry a team. But I do see him as a very, very good player when you combine his defense and offense.
I’m really not ready to conclude anything at this point, but if I have to, it is that we are going to see a different brand of basketball than we are used to. Less glitz and more rugged play. This honestly feels more like a football team. Evans is the running back, Martin is the speedy wide receiver, Noc is the nasty center that gouges your eyes, JT is the tight end that knocks you on your butt and slants toward the sideline. But Hawes? What is Hawes? Is he the QB or is he Too Tall Jones?
I’ll be the first to admit that I was looking for another J-Will. I wanted the old run and gun, fancy passing Kings I fell in love with. But that is clearly not what we drafted for. So I am mentally preparing myself for a different style of winning.
"Shut up and Coach!"
Vfettke
by SavageBeast on Jul 13, 2009 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I don't think Hawes has figured out who he is yet.
What is Hawes? Is he the QB or is he Too Tall Jones?
Well, as always, Savage, you bring up a number of salient points, but I will only reply to a couple:
The heart and soul of the Princeton offense of those Adelman/Carrill Kings was Vlade. Webber bought in, and excelled. All of the pieces fell into place.
Hawes is no Vlade. Well, maybe a right wing, anti-tobacco, more athletic, maybe smarter but not as clever, not as lovable version.
This Kings team is more deliberate and developing a physical presence (they don’t have one yet). The offense will be more mundane but the defense will be more containing, or with this personal, it should be. I expect the offense to look like most of the offenses in the League, non distinctive. Maybe old style Indiana Pacers. Maybe Spencer can be Rik Smits to Kevin Martin’s Reggie Miller. JT is either Antonio or Dale Davis. Casspi or Green can be Derrick McKey. Tyreke is not close to Mark Jackson, but there you are.
Orson Scott Card. This isn’t Dragon team. We don’t have Ender. We don’t have Bean. Ailene is not Diogenes. Hey, if you haven’t done it, try and give a listen to Ender’s Game on CD, 20th anniversary edition. Nice to play in the car on long trips. Check your local library.
Section: Manu is the Bat Signal. Pop is Commissoner Gordon. Maybe dress Eva in that silly Batgirl costume. RC Buford is Alfred.
by betweentheeyes on Jul 13, 2009 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Ballhandling
In my opinion, ballhandling is the skill with the biggest correlation to success as an NBA point guard. If a player can use his ballhandling to get the defense out of position, then it doesn’t matter whether his best skill is passing or scoring; his team will have a good chance of converting, regardless. The best offensive point guards (Nash, Paul) can do both exceptionally well, but being a much better scorer or passer isn’t necessarily a death sentence (Arenas, Calderon). Having elite passing skill is like having elite shotblocking skill, it’s great to watch but even the best only do it three or four plays a game. I’d rather have the interior defender that makes the right read and rotation every time than the guy that flies in out of nowhere and bats one into the stands a few times every game. And I’d rather have the PG that cuts up the defense every time the ball is in his hands than the guy who pinpoints a halfcourt alley oop or an off-handed, behind-the-back bounce passes once per quarter.
Can Tyreke do that? I don’t know. I didn’t see him much in college, and college doesn’t necessarily translate. But he does seem pretty comfortable with the ball in his hands, and that’s a good sign.
consider me converted.
the kings obviously picked the best player available. evans’ quickness and his length have been revelations. i’m glad they picked evans. he’ll never be a true point guard, but i agree that he has a chance to be a very, very good (even special) player. petrie is smarter than all of us. :)
i loved holiday—still do, but the better prospect is evans. wonder if we can find a way to get both of them in the back court? :)
"When talent is roughly equal," said Westphal, "the competitive guys win. You have to have that in this league. Here's a perfect example: We (the Phoenix Suns) drafted Tim Perry and Dan Majerle the same year (1988). Now, if you get a stopwatch for down and back (baseline to baseline sprint), Tim Perry was faster than Dan Majerle. That's a fact. But if you had them race, Dan Majerle won. I can't explain it. Somehow, he had that drive, that fire, something inside him. If you have enough guys like that, your team starts winning again."
Whoa, let's slow down
I’m obviously arguign in favor of Evans, but it is far too early to say that we obviously picked the BPA is premature.
Never forget: I am a complete idiot
Speaking of slowing down
Sorry about the type, should be “arguing”
Never forget: I am a complete idiot
yea, i agree. never know how things will turn out...
just trying to emphasize how much i’ve come to appreciate the pick relative to my pre-draft yearnings for holiday, flynn, or rubio.
"When talent is roughly equal," said Westphal, "the competitive guys win. You have to have that in this league. Here's a perfect example: We (the Phoenix Suns) drafted Tim Perry and Dan Majerle the same year (1988). Now, if you get a stopwatch for down and back (baseline to baseline sprint), Tim Perry was faster than Dan Majerle. That's a fact. But if you had them race, Dan Majerle won. I can't explain it. Somehow, he had that drive, that fire, something inside him. If you have enough guys like that, your team starts winning again."
by kingsbruins02 on Jul 13, 2009 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions
The fact that there's so much debate about this
tells me he’s NOT a PG. We never questioned if Bibby, J-Will, or Spud was a PG. From the two articles all I derived was that the PG is whomever the responsibilities of the PG are given. I honestly believe he’s Dwayne Wade type gaurd. Remember D Wade played point his rookie year. He played it well but was moved to 2 gaurd and has become an all world player. I believe the same is gonna happen with Tyreke. He will be the starting 2 gaurd in 2 years. Make your own predictions on what happens with K Mart.
I think
If he can defend PGs then he’s a PG, if he can’t he isn’t. Even if they are both natural two guards offensively, it’s hard for me to imagine Martin and Evans being a toxic combination on that end. It’s not like we have two Michael Redds. Tyreke can control the ball (a la Wade) attracting doubles and causing mismatches and Martin can take advantage by doing what he does best, making open jumpers and slashing to the rim. Add Francisco, JT and Hawes to the mix as players who don’t need to dominate the ball to get there offense and it doesn’t seem like scoring will be a problem.
The problem would arise if Evans proved unable to stay in front of opposing PGs, since that doesn’t seem like something Martin would excel at either. Then we’d have to get creative.
Agreed
There are a plethora of great ball-handlers in the league that are not point guards – I think Tyreke will eventually join them.
I definitely think Tyreke has the requisite skills to play PG if necessary, but he’s just a much more natural fit at SG.
Relating to my post above
Do we need a PG? We are maybe trying to shove a square shouldered peg into a round ball hole. Is it possible that we could win without a “true” pg?
"Shut up and Coach!"
Vfettke
by SavageBeast on Jul 13, 2009 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions
The first example that I could think of is
The second Bulls championship run. Ron Harper (a shooting guard through and through) technically ran the point, but there wasn’t a true PG anywhere on that lineup in those years (96-98). Obviously we don’t have Michael or Scottie, but those were aguably the best teams of all time.
I'd feel a lot better about it
if the Kings had a point-forward like Scottie
We never asked it about Bibby
because he was tiny, and was physically over matched against big PGs let alone against shooting guards.
Tyreke being physically capable of playing 2 or even 3, certainly contributes to the discussion.
Professional Hyperbole Slayer
that is part of the problem 4/3 - rec'd
Spud, JWill and Bibby had no other options, they were the smallest guys on the floor and were by default, 1’s. You could argue that Spud was a shoot first PG or a very short SG. They had to defend the other teams’ smallest guy.
Evans is a physical force. He has that Shawn Kemp, LeBron James, Dwayne Wade bruiser body at 19. He has a presence on the court. The backcourt defense just improved to decent. Let’s see what the offense brings.
by betweentheeyes on Jul 13, 2009 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Or it could be a product of the times
If this were 1998, we might see a small article in the Bee questioning his ability to play the point consistently, but that would be it. With the blogs and the plethora of NBA sites everything gets more debate. I think there’s so much debate about this because there’s nothing else to talk about.
Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott
by Kfan in Korea on Jul 13, 2009 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Enjoyed this 214
Just wanted to let you know.
Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
Something is missing from the chart
Scoring efficiency. How many points were scored between their shooting and assists. If your the coach on the court, and your taking bad shots, your hurting the team. So, I’d like to see who generate the highest efficiency per “dispenses per game”.
William, Paul, Harris & Parker all had over 30 dispenses. Harris & Parker had over 20 shots per game, and Paul & Ellis had 19 shots per game. Williams was 5th highest in shots taken with 17. So, even though Williams & Paul we in the top 10 in assist percentage, does the fact that they took so many shots mean than their not a “Pass First PG” or a “Playmaking PG”? And, since Harris & Parker were so low in the assist percentage, does that mean that they are “Shot First PG’s”? Fisher had 13 “dispenses”, so should he even be considered a PG at all?
But, no one had less shots than assists, not even Kidd who had the highest percentage. So, you could say that not one player on the list qualifies as a “pass first PG”? And, I didn’t realize that Beno was so good since he came in above average & in the top half of the list. (sarcasm should be obvious)
I think you info is every inlightening, Section. Players, no matter what position they play bring different things to that position to help their team. And, they can’t be categorized by one particular skill. Evans was moved to PG in college and his team won 27 straight games, so I think he can be considered a PG.
"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
Thanks, HT
And there is a lot missing from my chart. It is painfully basic.
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Good Stuff Section.
Father of the "Natt this!" movement and Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order.
rec'd
cos i have a thing about numbers , % and other complicated stuff ….
Said Van Gundy about the situation: "(Spanoulis) says, 'I was [Tracy] McGrady back home.' Great. McGrady is McGrady here," ..
Baron Davis
Boom. THAT’s the name I’ve been looking for when I’ve been searching my brain for an acceptable Evans comparison. Larry Hughes just doesn’t seem right (from this all too big 2-game sample size). But the Baron could be possible. We’ll see. But I’m excited to watch.
David Aldridge just said Evans will start the season for the Kings
During the telecast of the lakers/ Clippers game. Then he turned to Joe Maloof who was sitting close by and asked him. And, Joe said that Reke will start also.
Then they made an attempt to ease Beno’s feelings, by saying that Beno as a Very Good backup PG. Not just good, but Very Good. I hope it doesn’t go to Beno’s head.
"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
I am hearing some Chris "Boomer" Berman doing the home run derby
back back back back ……. gone!
by betweentheeyes on Jul 13, 2009 10:44 PM PDT up reply actions
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