Rating the Rebounding of Sacramento's Big Men

by Ziller on Jul 22, 2009 10:23 AM PDT in Commentary Comment 49 comments

I have something in depth on rebounding cooking for next week, but in the interim we should assess what we have at the player level right now, at least on the frontline.

There could be at least one more addition to the power forward/center rotation by the start of the season, and perhaps a subtraction. We have four players, though, who we can honestly expect to get minutes in preseason and potentially make the rotation come Opening Day. (Two of these guys, of course, will be starters.) Which of them rebound well on offense? On defense? What would your best rebounding line-up be?

There's one little issue to resolve: Jon Brockman is a rookie, so we have no NBA production to base his placement on. I figured the college-to-pro rebounding translation for the three Kings bigs we have college and pro numbers for. It comes out in this quick-and-dirty calculation that the bigs kept about 85% of their college per-possession rebounding production upon entering the pros. So I adjusted Brockman's senior rebounding numbers by that amount.

Let's start with offensive rebounding.

1. Jon Brockman: 13%
2. Jason Thompson: 12%
3. Sean May: 10%
4. Kenny Thomas: 10%
5. Spencer Hawes: 8%

Brockman was a terror on the offensive glass in Las Vegas, and I expect that will continue in the NBA. JT is, of course, quite good too. Thompson at center and Brockman at power forward would provide the best offensive rebounding line-up for the team. This matter isn't particularly close.

Now to defensive rebounding.

1. Sean May: 22%
2. Jon Brockman: 22%
3. Spencer Hawes: 21%
4. Jason Thompson: 19%
5. Kenny Thomas: 19%

Note that in all cases, tie goes to Notkennythomas. May rebounds well on the defensive end (and decently on offense), Brockman projects to be good defensive rebounder, and Hawes gets most of his rebounds here. Thompson could stand to improve in this area -- the good news is that big men often become better defensive rebounders over time. The comparable Antonio McDyess, for example, went from around 17% his first few years to 23-24-27% the last three seasons. Your best defensive rebounding frontcourt would be Brockman/May, though I'm not sure Paul Westphal wants two 6'8 fellows running together. In that case, Hawes/May or Hawes/Brockman would do the trick.

I assume, though, that unless you have a small forward or guard with insane offensive rebounding skills, you need your starting frontline to be able to board on both ends. So what would the Kings' best rebounding option be in those terms?

I think you have to go with Thompson/Brockman. Again, May/Brockman seems unviable in basic basketball terms. But JT can do things centers do, except block shots (though he did that well in college, albeit in a mid-major conference).

If you have an electric wing who pounds the offensive boards -- and this is where I note that Omri Casspi had seven offensive rebounds in only 20 minutes in the final VSL game -- you could do a Hawes/May or Hawes/Brockman frontline to reach near optimal rebounding. If you have a wing or guard who rebounds the defensive glass exceptionally well -- looking at you, Tyreke Evans, who according to my previously explained primitive translation would have a defensive rebounding rate of 13%, a major improvement on 9% Beno Udrih -- Thompson/Brockman might be the optimal choice.

You'll notice something about all those optimal choices, surely: none of them are Hawes/Thompson, the perceived frontcourt of the future. The perceived starting frontcourt for the next 10 years.

But we're speaking only about rebounding, which is (all told) less than a quarter of the game. Shooting, shooting defense, turnovers (both ways) and fouls (both ways) need to be addressed in lineup construction. This is one narrow spectrum from which to view the roster.

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Good article

I would, however, like to see a Thompson/May line more often than one featuring Brockman. No doubt his rebounding is likely to be legit, just as likely unfortunately, is that he will be a defensive liability, and an offensive black hole (at least until he gets a jumper). Considering May’s much, much more polished offensive game, and comparable rebounding skills – all things, including health, being equal of course – I would expect, and hope to see Thompson/May or Hawes/May more often.

by Citadel 29 on Jul 22, 2009 10:40 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Nice work

It is only a part of the psot game, but it is an area that the Kings struggled in last season, so it certaintly warrants attention. Like you said, it will be interesting to see what kind of overall improvement we’ll see with guys like Casspi and Evans included.

Rec’d for this line:

Note that in all cases, tie goes to Notkennythomas

Never forget: I am a complete idiot

by Exhibit G on Jul 22, 2009 10:45 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Gotta tell you boss

I’m missing the banana ’tude already.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Jul 22, 2009 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

I’m still adjusting to it myself. Odd that a cartoon of myself bothers me more than a picture of an insane banana.

Never forget: I am a complete idiot

by Exhibit G on Jul 22, 2009 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You'll get over it

You might even find the time to fit in a “Dark Side of the Moon” background like the big boss has got.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Jul 22, 2009 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Indeed

The blank background has a lot of potential.

Never forget: I am a complete idiot

by Exhibit G on Jul 22, 2009 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just as long as it's not Money

I’ll be okay with it. I think.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Jul 22, 2009 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Needs more Moustache

Father of the "Natt this!" movement and Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order.

by Aykis16 on Jul 22, 2009 1:20 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

That's beautiful

Never forget: I am a complete idiot

by Exhibit G on Jul 22, 2009 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't forget my friends

Dos Equis!

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Jul 22, 2009 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Are you calling me interesting?

Never forget: I am a complete idiot

by Exhibit G on Jul 22, 2009 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hell no

I’m calling your picture “happy”.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Jul 24, 2009 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He means gay.

Father of the "Natt this!" movement and Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order.

by Aykis16 on Jul 24, 2009 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Shutup

He knows that.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Jul 24, 2009 6:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That looks like me at 20 except the stache curved down

now it has all been replaced by gray

"We are in the business of kicking butt and business is very, very good." - Charles Barkley

by Bluejohn on Jul 22, 2009 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tyreke will be

the 2nd or 3rd leading rebounder on the team next season. Jason will lead the team and then depending on the minutes it will either be Spencer or May coming in third (or fourth).
Brockman will have the most rebounds per minutes played, but I don’t think he’ll receive very many minutes.

Ba-da

by Ba-Da Bing on Jul 22, 2009 10:50 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I sincerely doubt Tyreke is the 2nd leading rebounder on our team next year

JT and Spence will lead the team and Reke will come in 3rd or 4th.

Father of the "Natt this!" movement and Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order.

by Aykis16 on Jul 22, 2009 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

per minute he is going to be 5th or lower most likey

by Citadel 29 on Jul 22, 2009 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

^^^^ +1

by silverguy on Jul 22, 2009 11:35 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

No statistical value in comparing raw data.

Mehmet Okur took more 3pt shots than his total offensive rebounds. Does that mean he’s a poor offensive rebounder? He’s 22nd in the Western conference in RP48 and he’s 8th in DRPG. So, obviously he can rebound. But, if your team plays you away from the rim on offense, your not going to get many offensive rebounds. It’s not that you can’t.

In addition, the number of ORPG carries more value that DRPG. The top offensive rebounder in the Western conference last yr. averaged 3.4rpg while 30th player only averaged 1.4rpg. Defensively the top rebounder averaged 8.0rpg while the 30th player who was Noc. averaged 4.0rpg.

So, offensive rebounds are harder to get than defensive rebound, and are affected by your role in the offense. Spence spent more time in the high post offense then in the low blocks. So, certainly he’s going to have less opportunity to get offensive rebounds. Does that mean that he’d have more OR’s if he always played in the paint? No, it just means that he would have had more opportunities to get OR’s.

The same is true for DR;s. It’s all about positioning on the court. If Spence is defending a low post center, he’s going to be around the basket and in better position to get defensive rebounds. And, if JT is guarding the opposing PF out at the wing, he’s not going to get a rebound around the rim.

Imo, Spence is a better rebounder then JT. He’s taller, has more vertical leaping abitlity, and is better at getting position to rebound. And, (i’m going to get slammed for this) JT’s numbers are inflated because of all the tip ins he misses and then puts back up. Both will become better rebounder with added strength and PT.

But, who’s in the front court isn’t going to have the biggest impact on our overall rebounding. JT is 14th & Spencer is 17th in RP48 in the Western Conference, but they would have more rebounds on the defensive glass if teams didn’t shoot such a high percentage against us. Teams shot 48% overall and 41% from the 3 against us. If we would of held them to 43%, that’s 340 additional misses and potential rebounds for us. JT & Spencer had a total for the year of 1155. So, even if we only got 1/2 of the 340, it would still be an increase of 15% for our two bigs. Fewer open shots for our opponents will improve our Rebounding no matter who’s in our front line.

"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom

by HighTops on Jul 22, 2009 12:51 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs

Well said HT

It’s one area that JT definitely needs to improve at (finishing around the cup). If Summer League did nothing else, it somewhat exposed JT without having Spencer around.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Jul 22, 2009 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hawes is a beast

by Brian5517209 on Jul 22, 2009 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep

I hear he’s into beastality.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Jul 24, 2009 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't remember which game it was but JT got 3 maybe 4 offensive boards trying to make 1 tip in

tends to inflate his offensive stats a little

"We are in the business of kicking butt and business is very, very good." - Charles Barkley

by Bluejohn on Jul 22, 2009 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

More than one I assure you

He doesn’t gain control and put the ball in with authority. A lot of tipping back or scooping or layups. He had 234 offensive rebounds and only 356 made shots.

"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom

by HighTops on Jul 22, 2009 5:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Perimeter & shooting defense

is where we really need to improve. Rec’d for truth.

And our bigs to finish strong at hole.

Moving at the speed of molasses.

by elfboy_ on Jul 22, 2009 9:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's what she said

The future begins now...

by eduardo_m7 on Jul 23, 2009 12:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rebound rate

I guess I haven’t explained rebound rate, which I use in this post. Rebound rate is the percentage of rebound opportunities by a player.

So if in the first quarter, Team B shoots 10/20 and takes no FTs, the Kings have 10 opportunities for defensive rebounds. JT gets 2, Hawes gets 2. For the quarter, each player’s defensive rebound rate is 20%.

Increasing the population of rebound opportunities (which better defense would do) will increase the raw numbers — total rebounds, rebounds per game. But rebound rate would be expected to stay about the same. Rebounding is a fairly consistent skill, according to studies.

by Ziller on Jul 23, 2009 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Part of the problem

with our rebounding is the mental effort. you can’t stat that. I hope Brockman Turner Overdrive will spread some of his die hard work ethic on the glass. Mentality is contagious… let’s hope he doesn’t catch everyone else’s.

by Rickyflip on Jul 22, 2009 12:54 PM PDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs

I don't know

I think the fact that Brockman was such a strong rebounder despite his size and athletic limitations captures the whole mental thing pretty well. I feel you on the “contagious” thing — but that remains to be seen.

by Ziller on Jul 23, 2009 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

K9 RIP

It’s not like this hasn’t been thoughly covered in the past few years, but it sure would be nice to have that K9 that gives a damn. He would still probably be our best rebounder and defender at the 4, if he wanted to be.

He had (has?) a great combination of quickness and strength. And even now: He still LOOKS like that same Kenny Thomas. He hasnt had any real injuries to speak of. Yeah, he is a bit older, but where did K9 go? He seems like what we are looking for in going after Brockman and May.

Now please dont think that I have no memory of the past two seasons—But, what happened to K9? Did he get old? Did he give up? I kinda remember that he may have needed to start in order to be productive…was that it?

In his one appearance in which he logged over 8 minutes last year, he grabbed 8 boards, had 4 steals, and a block. Now this is just one game and I dont want to get carried away—but isnt this is what we’re looking for? On the other hand, a hustle guy who doesn’t hustle isnt very useful.

by DustyG on Jul 22, 2009 2:06 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

so you mean that a hustle guy who doesn't hustle isn't a hustle guy?

"We are in the business of kicking butt and business is very, very good." - Charles Barkley

by Bluejohn on Jul 22, 2009 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

only if he -

oh never mind!

So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on Jul 22, 2009 11:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You do all the statistical analysis you want...

Fact is Kings big men are not a good rebounders. I like to judge a rebounder by ability to:

(1) Get tough rebounds in traffic.
(2) Get rebounds outside of their rebound area. In other words, chase down boards.

If you have guys who can do the above consistently, then you are going to win the rebounding battle against your opponent, get extra possessions on the offensive end, and key stops on the defensive end.

If I look up and down are roster, there are 3 guys who I see as potential for being good rebounders for their position:

Tyreke Evans
Omri Casppi
JT

I am excluding Brockman from the list because he hasn’t proven he has NBA ability yet.

by bench_blob on Jul 22, 2009 3:57 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

So May is not a good rebounder?

Are you allergic to numbers? If so, how do you figure Evans will be a good rebounder?

by Ziller on Jul 23, 2009 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He magically concluded the shapes in his head would equate to getting more rebounds

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Jul 24, 2009 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

the only thing i don't like

is that you said, “JT can do some center things too” ROFL that’s a joke, he tried during SL. I just think that JT’s body is too skinny to obtain many Defensive rebounds. I’d rather him get defensive rebounds than offensive. I mean offensive rebounds are nice, and needed to win games, but if he pulls down 4 offensive rebounds but gives up 5 offensive rebounds to the other team then he is doing us no good. I just hope he improves on it, because he was the most disappointing during summer league….

by shadowchicken on Jul 22, 2009 3:58 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

he was 250lbs last season

And has put on around 20lbs in muscle. Wasn’t used to playing with it in summer league. Muscle and weight isn’t what he should worry about. The key to rebounding is positioning and effort. Thompson is no lightweight, and with the right coaching he can get at least 10 a game.

by Ice_9ine on Jul 22, 2009 5:45 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

JT & Spencer aren't the problem

JT was 14th and Spencer was 17th among all players in the Western conference in OR48. JT pulled down 234 OR last season and Spencer pulled down 148.

Our opponents make 290 more shots in basicly the same amount of attemps, but they got 170 more offensive rebounds. If you think that JT & Spencer are responsible for giving up the extra rebounds your wrong. And, they certainly aren’t responsible for the opposition making 290 more shots.

If JT & Spence were able to make up the 170 OR’s they both would be in the top 5 OR’s in the conference. This is a team wide issue. The defense needs to be better to create more defensive rebound opportunities for us, And, the wings need to rebound better on the offensive glass. Our 3rd best offensive rebounder last year was Cisco with 56 and our 4th best was Noc with 52 and then came Beno with 46.

"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom

by HighTops on Jul 22, 2009 6:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not sure I'm with you here

they certainly aren’t responsible for the opposition making 290 more shots.

They are – if those shots are uncontested layups

So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on Jul 22, 2009 11:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Only if the layup was made by the opposing Center or PF.

Oh, and 56 of those 290 were 3pt shots.

"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom

by HighTops on Jul 22, 2009 11:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

defense on the perimeter is vital

waaay too many three’s given up last year. I think opponents averaged 40% as GP pointed out to me.
Nevertheless, it is ultimately the interior players responsibility to guard the basket and you’re only talking about 29% of all those extra shots they made were 3s.

So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on Jul 23, 2009 9:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

More lift than strength

JT wasn’t getting outbattled for rebounds in Vegas — he was getting outleaped. He wasn’t quick off his feet at all this summer, but he was last year. I imagine he’ll come around.

He was a better rebounder than Spencer last year. Is Spencer not a center? Do you really feel comfortable basing JT’s limitations on five exhibition games?

by Ziller on Jul 23, 2009 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Please expound on why you feel JT was a better rebounder last year.

Is it a numbers thing? Is it based on your observations? Would you feel the same if Spencer played offense more around the basket rather the from the high post or elbow?

"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom

by HighTops on Jul 23, 2009 6:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't

I think Spencer loses focus where JT had the same problem at times himself.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Jul 24, 2009 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

We may get to see this year

Westphal said he plans to play him more around the basket and in pick & rolls with Evans.

"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom

by HighTops on Jul 24, 2009 6:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If Spencer isn't playing in the post

I think he isn’t getting as much out of his ability. But, that’s me.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Jul 25, 2009 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

i am gonna keep bringing this up

And I am sorry, but the Kings need to sign Garret Siler real quick before Minny does. Ridiculous Upside just game their opinion of his play in the summer league, he sounds like he should be in the NBA, on our team, backing up Spencer.

If anyone has a way to get a hold of Petrie or even Levien give them this message: Don’t let Minnesota sign another quality big man. They have enough already.

Please get Siler. You won’t be disappointed.

by Ice_9ine on Jul 23, 2009 1:43 PM PDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs