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Where's the Map, Losing has me Disorientated.

As I look forward to the upcoming season, I am both excited for the possibilities and fearful that I am looking at this team through my fan inspired beer goggles.  In order to relieve myself of my anxiety, and to fill the gaping void that appears every summer, I took it upon myself to do a little research into the history of NBA losers.  Specifically, those teams that have found themselves in our present situation of being the worst team in the league.

Specifically, I was looking to answer three basic questions:
What happens the season after a league worst showing?
Is improvement to be expected, and if so how much?
How long will it take to win again?

Star-divide

After recording all the information about this select group of NBA misfit teams from the 1984-1985 season all the way to our own season of super suckage, I found that our record of 17-65 is pretty much a middle of the road number of losses for a worst of the worst team.  Therefore, I decided to use simple averaging to figure out what the answers to my questions might be.

Question #1- What Happens the Season After a League Worst Showing?

This is an area where optimists can take heart, because the answer appears to be things get better in the short term.  In the season following a worst in league showing the team usually doesn't repeat the experience the next year.  In fact, since the 1984-85 season only 4 times have the worst teams repeated their performance the next year and never have they had a three-peat.  Furthermore, in only one case did a team that was the worst team for a season have a worse record the next year than it did the first year and only one other team failed to improve upon the previous years record.  Therefore, in my estimation the Kings have a better than average shot of having a better year next year than they had last year.

Question #2- Is Improvement to be Expected, and if so How Much?

I think in finding out the answer to Question #1, I can say that yes, improvement over last year is to be expected and is supported by the historical record of previous biggest losers.  That still leaves us with the question of how much improvement can be expected.  To find this I measured two different indicators of success: Ranking records relative to the rest of the league and the change in the number of wins from one season to the next.  An average of ranking the records from best to worst showed that we can realistically expect the Kings to be somewhere between the 5th and 6th worst team in the league next year.  Furthermore, an average of change from one season to the next shows that we can expect the Kings to win between 9 and 10 more games next year which means a record of 27-55

Question #3 - How Long Will it Take to Win Again?

Hello pessimists!  If your still following me, this next set of data is probably going to make you feel justified and leave everyone else horrified.  On average, it takes a team that has hit the bottom of the league between 4 and 5 years to put together a winning record. So it looks like we can realistically expect to wait until the 2013-2014 season to have a winning team again.

Now that I have answered my questions, not that I like all the answers, I can comfortably go back to my fan inspired beer goggles and ignore everything I have learned and just hope, pray, wish, and use every bit of superstition I can to will the Kings to a better season than the one we endured last year.

For those of you interested in seeing the chart that I compiled this information on here it is :Bb_20improvement_20chart_medium

 

 

 

 



(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)

Comment 23 comments  |  11 recs  | 

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So we will be wining by

2013-1014, K$ will be in his last year of his deal, and Evans will be 22-23, I hope we can turn it around sooner than that, but i kind of have a feeling that we wont….good stuff though

by shadowchicken on Jul 31, 2009 6:19 AM PDT reply actions  

I think the Kings with Petrie are closer to the 2-3 year mark

but I am drinking the Kool-Aid.

Father of the "Natt this!" movement and Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order.

by Aykis16 on Jul 31, 2009 7:34 AM PDT reply actions  

Also good post. Rec'd.

Father of the "Natt this!" movement and Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order.

by Aykis16 on Jul 31, 2009 7:35 AM PDT up reply actions  

Nice piece, Jason

Like anything else, it’s impossible to say what all of it adds up to, but well done getting the data together.

Rocks are free, and slingshots easily stolen.

by andy sims on Jul 31, 2009 7:35 AM PDT reply actions  

nice summer apertif to keep the palate whet for the upcoming season.

rec’d

How much of a roster change did the cellar dwellars make in the season following their most dismal campaign? Coaching change?

The most famous worst to first was with the acquisition of Tim Duncan for the Spurs after David Robinson had an injured year out. I believe they made a coaching change as well (Brian Hill to Popovich). That is not a reasonable aspiration for these Kings but a point of comparison.

by betweentheeyes on Jul 31, 2009 7:35 AM PDT reply actions  

Ya that'd be a nice follow-up to this post

Explore why each team was the worst, and what they did the next year to try to regroup.

Father of the "Natt this!" movement and Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order.

by Aykis16 on Jul 31, 2009 7:47 AM PDT up reply actions  

Going in to this I was hoping to see a alot of Spurs turn arounds but

when I did the research I was surprised to find that the Spurs weren’t even the worst team in the league the year before Tim Duncan was drafted, they had a 20-62 record but were only the third worst team in the league that year. I blame the lottery for messing with my conception of history.

by jasonrp on Jul 31, 2009 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

Congradulations on an excellent post

I believe any post that encourages more questions & investigation is far more interesting than posts that just encourage controversy. It’s this kind of statistical analysis that forces you to investigate why the number are what they are. And, in looking into the facts of the events, the people and their actions, you gain a real understanding of history.

I love Aykis16’s question. My question to you would be, "How did the teams that made a quick return to winning do it? And, would that be a good template for the Kings to follow to be back to prominence?

I await your next Fanpost, Bravo

"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom

by HighTops on Jul 31, 2009 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

Nice work.

My kind of post. Lots of interesting data analysis. In fact I should have thought of that.

Rec’d.

From the people who brought you Reggie Musselnatt.

by My Losing Season on Jul 31, 2009 11:25 AM PDT reply actions  

Geez

At least we’re not the Clippers or the Grizzlies. Seriously, the Grizzlies need to change the name of their team or something, because apparently they’re cursed. Or they’ve just been managed terribly.

"Sometimes the capriciousness of youth anesthetizes common sense." -Let Geoff's words guide our patience this season.

by AnotherStupidSN on Jul 31, 2009 2:37 PM PDT reply actions  

There are no shortage of curses

Or are you unfamiliar with the sacred Wintu burial grounds beneath Arco Arena?

From the people who brought you Reggie Musselnatt.

by My Losing Season on Jul 31, 2009 3:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

The name seems pretty apropo to me

After all, the things that are happening in Memphis are pretty grizzly.

by hozr on Aug 4, 2009 7:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

Good post

Rec’d.

I think it is interesting that the answers to the first and second questions gave answers pretty much in line with most people’s expectations (or my expectations, which I generally extrapolate to be most people’s).

As for the third question, that would truly be interesting to break down further. Stats can provide good information on trends, but the full context would be fascinating. Take Boston going from worst to first by acquiring KG and Allen. Monster turnaround that would completely skew some numbers, but is probably equally offset by the Clips, Grizz and Mavs teams.

I’d also be interested in the correlation to Games Lost to injuries.

Sorry, these things aren’t meant to be nitpicking. But your post got me thinking (the goal of any great post), and suddenly I’m curious. Or maybe I’m just coming up with things to do rather than pack for my move this weekend…

Never forget: I am a complete idiot

by Exhibit G on Jul 31, 2009 6:01 PM PDT reply actions  

I'm not sure its really possible to lose more games

I know there have been worse records yes – but (yikes!)

a good post

So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on Aug 1, 2009 10:49 AM PDT reply actions  

With teams that are completely inept

I don’t think Petrie or the Kings are that inept.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Aug 1, 2009 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions  

Thank you Jason for answering a question I had actually asked myself.

All I can say is all your research clearly shows that the Clipper and Grizzlies organizations really and truly suck. Our rebuilding mode was delayed by 2 years and I’m hoping that our return to respectability can be accomplished within 3. I don’t drink beer but like Aykis and G, I am down with the Koolaid. Well done!

"We are in the business of kicking butt and business is very, very good." - Charles Barkley

by Bluejohn on Aug 2, 2009 3:35 PM PDT reply actions  

Only a commie doesn't drink beer

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Aug 2, 2009 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

And with good reason

It’s better. :)

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Aug 3, 2009 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

pookeyguru, what makes you say communist dont drink beer?

not all communist are russian/soviets.

War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength.-1984 George Orwell.

by tomkanti on Aug 4, 2009 8:03 AM PDT up reply actions  

I felt like saying it

That’s what makes me say it.

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Aug 4, 2009 9:54 AM PDT up reply actions  

ok but im a communist

and i drink beer

War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength.-1984 George Orwell.

by tomkanti on Aug 4, 2009 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions  

Thanks for this! Rec'd!

Screw the Kool-Aid, I think we’ll be a playoff team sooner than that. In ’Reke I trust.

Hopefully we’ll acquire an imposing center and that our young bigs develop more than a few go to moves to balance our scoring. I think all this can be achieved in a season or two.

This post is a fine lesson on how ‘less is more’ in getting your point across.

Sactown Royalty: 4,080 Fat Sean May jokes and counting...

by JETisKing on Aug 3, 2009 12:45 AM PDT reply actions  

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