Hollinger's Painful Analysis
by longtimelistenerfirsttimecaller on Aug 11, 2009 1:06 PM PDT
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PrintJohn Hollinger's analysis of the West has our beloved Kings firmly planted in the basement. Here's what he says:
Shell-shocked by increasingly horrific economics in Sacto and the woefully outdated Arco Arena, the Kings locked down financially while they wait to find out where their next home will be. If it's a new building in Sacramento, great, but if not, San Jose, Anaheim, Kansas City and others await with open arms. Either way, they won't spend a nickel without some certainty on this front.
The Kings did pick up a potential star in the draft in Tyreke Evans and a low-budget breakout possibility in Sergio Rodriguez, plus Kevin Martin should be healthier. That should keep them run-of-the-mill bad rather than historically awful, but optimists won't find a lot of ammunition here.
For those of you with Insider access, he has a very interesting story on the falling luxury tax line and how it is going to impact next year's free agents. In essence many more teams are facing serious tax problems next year and he predicts another buyers market for the free agent crop and for quality players under contract with teams trying to get under the tax line by the very small number of teams likely to have cap space.... Kings are in that small class.
(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)
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Is Hollinger's real name Tobias Funke?
The 1st-Ever Analyst and Therapist … A Professional Twice Over!
If Ziegler blows a save... I'll flag his next post.
by gdub171 on Aug 11, 2009 5:17 PM PDT reply actions 4 recs
I think I dated that guy in college.
The draft lottery has reinforced my belief that there are not enough bad words in the English language.
by LeaguePassAddict on Aug 13, 2009 8:33 PM PDT up reply actions
I see that there is a lot of antipathy toward Hollinger on this site
But I can’t say that I understand why. The above quote does not seem far off the mark at all. Also, Hollinger is the only guy I know of who came remotely close to accurately predicting the Kings’ epically bad 2008/09 season, and even he overpredicted the team’s win total by 6. The guy seems to rely heavily on his own opaque stat-crunching methods, but I do not detect any inherent disrespect or animosity toward the Kings.
Perhaps I’m missing something here.
From the people who brought you Reggie Musselnatt.
by My Losing Season on Aug 11, 2009 5:44 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
Rec'd
Not liking a fact doesn’t stop it from being true.
Now, let’s talk about death panels.
Rocks are free, and slingshots easily stolen.
If it's good enough for Sarah Palin, it...uh...
…I’m sorry. I was thinking of Michael Palin.
Never mind.
From the people who brought you Reggie Musselnatt.
by My Losing Season on Aug 11, 2009 10:21 PM PDT up reply actions
"Jack, please take that mask off!"
Quite possibly the best movie ever. IMO.
From the people who brought you Reggie Musselnatt.
by My Losing Season on Aug 12, 2009 12:05 AM PDT up reply actions
But as I recall
he had been predicting the Kings would be the worst team in the league for the previous three or four years. Eventually he had to get it right.
"Shut up and Coach!"
Vfettke
No he didn't
During the Musselman years he had the team ranked as a middle of the pack team. (I specifically remember it because his formula—for team rankings during the season— had the team far better than they were. One of the funniest things I ever remember about Hollinger.)
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
In 2007
Hollinger predicted 27 wins for a team that eventually won 38. I can find no data for previous seasons, but I would be surprised if he predicted Musselman’s Kings to be as bad as they were.
From the people who brought you Reggie Musselnatt.
by My Losing Season on Aug 12, 2009 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions
He didn't
he precited them to be a 500 Plus team.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
predicted^
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
I don't know how long Hollinger has been in business
But it would be interesting to see his exact predictions for the Kings in the years before that.
Anyway, there seem to be a lot of Hollinger haters on this site, and I still don’t understand that. Chad Ford I understand. Hollinger not so much.
From the people who brought you Reggie Musselnatt.
by My Losing Season on Aug 12, 2009 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't care about Hollinger enough to worry about his analysis
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
Agreed
I really don’t know where he predicted we would be in previous years. I just know that a lot fo people were predicting us to be the worst team in the NBA long before we actually fulfilled their expactations. I put Holinger in the Charles Barkley mode. People who can be entertaining but that I don’t put a lot of belief in.
"Shut up and Coach!"
Vfettke
Yeah that's a good comparison
Hollinger is probably the Chuck version of sabermetricians.
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
I'm not bitter about anything he's ever said about the Kings
I don’t like Hollinger because of the way he self-promotes his statistical analysis. He discusses his statistics as if they were all you needed to know to determine a player’s worth, when they are nothing more than a helpful little tool that might call your attention to something you wouldn’t have noticed otherwise. He only discusses basketball when common sense backs up the results of his statistics.
He ranks players all the time according to their PER, but I’ve never seen him explain why Zach Randolph and Adonal Foyle have a higher PER than Steve Nash, Kevin Martin, Carmelo, Rondo, Billups, Butler, etc. The PER system is not as useful as advertised.
It's a real good way to say LeBron is absolutely a better player than Kobe Bryant though
No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
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