On Schedule Difficulty


I haven't delved too much into scheduling matters, but Bradford Doolittle's Basketball Prospectus piece on strength of schedule got me thinking. Brad used his 2009-10 projections to assert the Kings will have the fifth most difficult schedule next season. I imagine the projections closely link to 2008-09 performance with adjustments made for the biggest personnel moves; for instance, Brad notes the Spurs are his system's current 2009-10 favorite, and I have no doubt replacing Bruce Bowen, Fabricio Oberto and Kurt Thomas with Richard Jefferson, Antonio McDyess and DeJuan Blair is a big part of that.

Zach at CK linked the BP article and questioned why bad teams (the Grizz, Clips, Wolves and Warriors have more difficult skeds than the Kings) have to be stuck with tougher schedules.

Well, it's because teams like the Kings don't get to play against ... the Kings. Replace four games against a .500 team with four games against .207 (or 17-win) team, and the preseason strength of schedule looks different. In fact, it looks drastically different: the actual .512 opponent winning percentage would become a .497 opponent winning percentage if the Kings were able to play against themselves four times instead of a .500 team (like Phoenix).

That's why you see a real stratification (with some outliers, like Denver and Charlotte) in Brad's list: bad West teams --> bad East teams and middling West teams --> good West teams and middling East teams --> good East teams. Cleveland's schedule looks weak in part because Cleveland doesn't have to play against Cleveland, et cetera.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Sactown Royalty

You must be a member of Sactown Royalty to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Sactown Royalty. You should read them.

Join Sactown Royalty

You must be a member of Sactown Royalty to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Sactown Royalty. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9347_tracker