30Q: Will the Kings Be a Good Three-Point Shooting Team?

by Ziller on Sep 19, 2009 1:48 PM PDT in Commentary Comment 16 comments

30Q asks the important questions about the Kings all through September.

Last season, there were few categories in which the Kings did not rate as "god awful." Three-pointing shooting was one of those. The Kings finished 14th in three-point shooting percentage at .368. The league average was .367.

But the flavor of the team has changed, and whether the Kings can improve or at least remain as good as last season from behind the arc is a question. A question I will henceforth attempt to answer.

Part of the equation is unanswerable until we see exactly how the Kings offense will work (or attempt to work). Should Tyreke Evans take the reins early, the team could very well be focused on slashing and finishing rather than swinging the ball. There's also the matter of where on the court Paul Westphal will primarily station Spencer Hawes (who vacillated between the post and the perimeter under Reggie Theus and Kenny Natt). Finally, the small forward rotation matters quite a bit: Francisco Garcia and Andres Nocioni shoot from deep regularly, but Desmond Mason does not.

But we can at least sort out who is and is not a good three-point shooter on this team, and who will and who will not take three-point shots. Threes are an increasingly important facet of offense in the NBA; for a team not expected to blow the doors off on defense, it's a vital part of the game for Sacramento.

THE GREAT

Kevin Martin. Martin nearly shot as well from three-point land (.415) as he did on two-pointers (.423) last season. Along with that marvelous efficiency from the perimeter, Martin also utilizes the deep shot often, with a third of his FGAs coming from behind the arc (5.4/game last year). Martin is clearly the team's best shooting weapon from deep.

Francisco Garcia. Like Martin, Garcia's deep jumper has improved with experience. He shot .391 in 2007-08 and .398 in 2008-09. Last season, Garcia took a third of his FGAs from behind the arc, some 3.4 per game (in 30 mpg). Garcia is a particularly good set shooter; hopefully the Beno-to-Tyreke transition will help Flaco get more of these opportunities, and not fewer.

Andres Nocioni. Nocioni shot the deep ball beautifully in 2008-09 for the Kings, at a .441 clip while taking 40% of his FGAs (4.4/game) from behind the arc. Nocioni has always taken many shots from deep -- 33% of his career FGAs are threes -- and has a lovely .373 career clip. As discussed recently, he's a valuable stretch power forward ... on offense.

THE GOOD

Spencer Hawes. Hawes hit .348 on three attempts last season, below league average but solid for a 7-footer. The key was that he took so many -- 118 on the season, up from 21 attempts his rookie season. Reggie Theus, for all his faults, did unleash Shooter Hawes to a degree, and it was nice to see those go down the nylon glory hole. I think Hawes could nudge up the frequency a bit, provided he maintains or improves the efficiency. Hawes hasn't been a particularly good midrange shooter, so turning a portion of those long twos into threes (especially short corner threes) would be a boost for the team.

Beno Udrih. I'm iffy about placing Udrih in this category, but since I've been accused of pessimistic curmudgeonhood lately, what the hey/hay/HAI. Beno shot only .310 from deep last season, and took a remarkably low share of his total FGAs from behind the arc (16%). But he's been better in the past. His career clip is .356, and his career 3PA/FGA is 24%. He shot .387 in his Kings debut season. If Beno returns to at least .350, his deep shooting will be a plus.

THE BAD

Desmond Mason. Career .260 deep shooter. Has taken 6,523 field goals over his career. Only 254 of those have been three-point attempts. Only 66 of those have been makes.

Tyreke Evans. We're all stoked for 'Reke, but I have no illusions about his perimeter shooting right now. It's going to be ugly, in all likelihood. Derrick Rose shot .337 at Memphis and .222 with Chicago his rookie season. Kevin Durant shot .404 his freshman year at Texas and .288 his rookie season in Seattle. Evans only shot .274 in college. It ain't gon' be pretty, y'all.

Donte Greene. Similarly, D.G. is going to have to prove he can hit the three regularly before we count him as dependable. As a reminder, Greene shot .260 from deep last season.

Sergio Rodriguez. Rodriguez is a career .304 three-point shooter. Last season was his best from the perimeter (.325), and he's not shy on the trigger. But at this point, the team needs better performance out there, given the other options.

THE INCONCLUSIVE

Omri Casspi. No idea how Casspi will shoot at the NBA level ... nor how often. He has a nice stroke and good mechanics, though.

THE IRRELEVANT

Jason Thompson, Jon Brockman and Sean May will not be shooting threes this season. I hope.

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Poor Kenny Thomas

He doesn’t even qualify as irrelevant anymore. And this is unfair, as Kenny is usually sitting well outside the arc.

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on Sep 19, 2009 2:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Well outside?

He can’t even see the arc from where he sits.

Purveyor of Bull Plop

by SayWhat? on Sep 19, 2009 2:31 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Wonder how K$ would fare in the 3pt contest

Screw you Knicks! LBJ to the Kings!!!

by Shizzo on Sep 19, 2009 2:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Not too good I think

He’s more a “game-shooter” I think. I remember when Paul Pierce made the 3pt contest and didn’t do well…I think Martin fits in the same category of shooters

"Even when I’m old and grey, I won’t be able to play it, but I’ll still love the game." — Michael Jordan

Go Kings!

by Panzerfaust on Sep 19, 2009 7:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd put money on Kevin

With nobody guarding him? He’d dominate

Father of the "Natt this!" movement and Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order.

by Aykis16 on Sep 19, 2009 7:59 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

He'd get fouled by the ball rack

and then would sink all three at the line.

SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!

by section214 on Sep 19, 2009 8:06 PM PDT up reply actions 3 recs

On Hawes

Hawes hit .348 on three attempts last season, below league average but solid for a 7-footer

I’m not sure this is good logic. Height/position shouldn’t matter. Manute Bol shot .210 percent from 3s, making him a solid 3 point shooter for a 7-6 person, considering Sean Bradley shot only .100 and Yao Ming shoots .200. If you’re good, you’re good and
if you’re not so good, you’re not so good, no matter how tall you are.

I know that based on eFG% and the like you’d like to see those long 2s turn into 3s. But I’d rather see those long 2s turn into shorter 2s. Would put him in a better position to board, as well.

Props for the “nylon glory hole” line, though!

by LPKingsFan on Sep 19, 2009 2:50 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

that said

a lot, for me at least, depends on how the offense is run. i could see a lot of evans drives leading to open hawes on the baseline for 3, but also a lot of open hawes dunks up close if the center comes to contest.

by LPKingsFan on Sep 19, 2009 3:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good for ...

You’re right, definitely. You’d rather have a 5’5 player hitting .400 than a 7-footer hitting .348.

But having your center able to step out at hit one — to stretch out the defense, to keep the defense from packing in against the drive — might be extra useful, all else considered.

I should have also mentioned that 3P% is a skill that traditionally gets better with age. So Hawes’s age spells good things ahead.

by Ziller on Sep 19, 2009 5:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If they establish a strong inside presence they will

be a successful 3 point shooting team. Also if they rotate the ball around vs. isolation plays they will get more opportunities, but not knowing much about Westphal’s offensive scheme it’s anyone’s guess.

Ba-da

by Ba-Da Bing on Sep 19, 2009 3:05 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Living in the now

I used to want the Kings to pick up a marksman to prevent defenses from sagging so that Martin could drive and hit his midrange jumpers, but I may be content to let Kevin take a bit less punishment as he is the marksman, and let Tyreke be the one playing bumper cars on his way to the hoop.

No one ever solved anything with a run-on sentence.

Rocks are free, and slingshots easily stolen.

by andy sims on Sep 19, 2009 7:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm

Its a good question TZ. The team % will go down due to Reke, Donte and Casspi I’d think.
If KM plays more games (as we all hope) that may balance things out a bit. Also I’d hope Donte’s % goes up some – and he takes fewer. I think both things need to happen for his sake.
Casspi? Like you I make no predictions.

So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on Sep 19, 2009 8:48 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't expect any numbers to be better except

hopefully defensive stats – and a few more wins in close games. After Jan? We’ll see how the first two months go.

So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on Sep 19, 2009 8:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Real question is if we've learned to defend against the 3

because we were deep fried by everyone out there last season.

I think our shooting stats should hover around the same mark and maybe uptick this year, because we’ve got KM and Cisco hopefully for more games and hopefully the rooks and sophs aren’t gonna try to be Stephen Curry.

Casspi doesn’t shoot the trey often, but he’s trying to establish an outside game. In Euroleague though, he shot a very good .450 (but only on 1.3 attempts). I’d be surprised if he can maintain a .300 but considering how little he pulls the trigger from deep is probably irrelevant.

Sean May is not fat. It's widescreen distortion.

by elfboy_ on Sep 19, 2009 9:43 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I would sure like

To have the guards take the lions share of 3’s. Sure Hawes CAN make a 3 point shot, but just because he CAN doesn’t mean he SHOULD. In some circumstances, Hawes shooting 3’s might work depending on how Westphal is going to run his offense. If it is a run and gun offense, if Hawes is sitting in the corner, he draws the defense to him and opens up the lane to the hoop easier for Reke/Martin. I just don’t think you can build a team around a Center that can shoot 3’s. It is not that unusual for big men coming out of college to have 3 point range anymore. But the lost art of the mid range game is what these 7 footers need to learn. If you can shoot a 3 ball, you can shoot. At 7 feet tall, you should be able to get an open look occasionally from 10-15 feet away from the bucket. If Hawes could do that consistently, he would become a bigger asset to the team. Not only would his percentage of midrange 2’s go up (you hope), but it puts him in a position to rebound his own miss and go back up or pass it to another open player who can shoot the 3 better (Martin or Garcia).

I am actually pretty excited to see Martin and Evans on the floor together. I think that will present problems for quite a few teams in the league. With Hawes, JT, Donte, Martin, and Evans in the game, the chances of Hawes getting a wide open look increases. If Greene can improve his 3 point shot, and I think he can, then the Kings can develop an inside out game with either JT or Hawes inside and kicking it out and around to the other players for better less contested shots.Evans breaking down the defense is a serious weapon that we lost when Salmons left. I loved Salmon’s game, but he was a REAL streaky shooter. He was either on or off on any given night. I am hoping that players like Rodriguez and Casspi are good shooters for this team. If teams double JT or have to double Evans on the drive, there are going to be some open looks for guys who are on the other side of the floor. According to Omri’s bio he has steadily improved as a pretty good 3 point shooter:

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Omri-Casspi-538/

We sure have a lot of 2’s and 3’s. Wonder if Petrie has something up his sleeve?

Another year, another chance to hope for the team !!

by FaStRmAn on Sep 19, 2009 9:59 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I'll take a gander on Casspi

I don’t think he’ll be anything special from 3 this year, but he won’t be horrible, probably around 34% or something. He used to be horrible but last year he really improved over in Israel. I think he can eventually become absolutely deadly as a spot-up 3 point threat later in his career.

I really like Omri. He’s got a lot of facets to his game and I think he could end up being one of the better players from this draft in time.

Father of the "Natt this!" movement and Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order.

by Aykis16 on Sep 20, 2009 12:01 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs