30Q: Is Spencer Hawes a Transformative Player?

by Tom Ziller on Sep 28, 2009 6:16 AM PDT in Commentary

30Q asks the important questions about the Kings all through September.

Last season, among all NBA centers who played a total of 1,000 minutes or more, 20-year-old Spencer Hawes achieved the following rankings:

13th in points per minute
23rd in rebounds per minute
20th in blocks per minute
16th in steals per minute
27th in free throw attempts per minute

Those rankings are not particularly mind-blowing, especially considering only 30 official NBA centers played 1,000 minutes or more last season. But here's another:

5th in assists per minute

And a few more:

3rd in three-point percentage
1st in three pointers attempted
1st in three pointers made

Spencer Hawes is not like those other dudes.

Basically, Hawes struggles with the traditional center duties (rebounding, drawing fouls, defense -- though the block numbers aren't that bad) but excels in stretch activities -- shooting and passing. Basically -- and I say this without exaggeration or humor -- Hawes is currently a better Andrea Bargnani. Bargs is one of only four 7-footers in the league who shoots a ton of threes (Dirk, Spencer and Yi being the others), but Il Mago is not nearly the passer that Hawes is, nor can Bargnani rebound at the admittedly subpar rate Hawes does. If Bargnani is a shooting guard trapped in a power forward's body, Hawes is an admitted power forward who always like the looks of them shooting guards trapped in a center's body.

The biggest eye-opener in terms of Hawes's transformative ability at the center has been his passing. We documented that Hawes became the youngest center to ever drop nine assists in a game last season. Yes, there are quite a few qualifiers in there. But it's still impressive. Hawes was, again, 5th among centers and third among 7-footers in assists per minute last season ... playing on a truly awful team where the best scorer (Kevin Martin) doesn't need to be set up and the coaches (Reggie Theus and Kenny Natt) had literally no offensive plan, and on which Hawes was 20 years old.

The most jaw-dropping realization I get whenever I look at Hawes's numbers is the similarity to the numbers of Pau Gasol. Gasol, a multiple time All-Star and the second best player on the reigning NBA champions, does exactly two things better than Hawes right now: shoot two-pointers (56% to 49%) and draw fouls (.42 FTA/FGAs to .17 FTA/FGAs). That is basically the entire difference of their production. Now, they are substantial and real differences. On a game-to-game basis, the two-point shooting percentage difference is worth about a point to a point-and-a-half. But Gasol is in the middle of his prime, while Hawes just turned 21. Gasol spent his teenage years playing professional basketball. Hawes arguably has yet to play professional basketball, given the coaching situation in Sacramento. There is hope. Lots of it.

Will it be realized? That's a question only Spencer can answer.

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Comments

Threes

I find it hard to be thrilled that our center is ranked so highly in stats related to long-ball. If he’s open on the perimeter with less than 5 seconds left in a sequence, I suppose he should take the shot, but I’d prefer he got stronger to combine some rebounding with his deft passing hands.

We may end up as the only team in NBA history where the point guard has a better post game and more RPG than the center. Maybe that could be good. given the personnel?

Rocks are free, and slingshots easily stolen.

by andy sims on Sep 28, 2009 6:43 AM PDT reply actions

The old Sonics teams

with Payton and Perkins had a similar mix. Perkins shot more threes (half his FGAs) than everyone but Hersey Hawkins in the Finals year of 95-96. And he shot them at a clip similar to that of Hawes. But the Sonics had a killer defense and, um, Shawn F’n Kemp. And Gary Payton. (Hence the killer defense.)

by Tom Ziller on Sep 28, 2009 7:46 AM PDT up reply actions

I think you might be right

Maybe that could be good. given the personnel?

Most/many Kings fans don’t seem overly concerned that we signed a point guard who is known for things not related to a traditional point guard. Maybe we need to look at this in a different way. At the end of the day, it doesn’t matter who scores the points, gets the rebounds as long as it gets done and as long as they combine to play fair to middling (or better) D.

Not sure it will all work, but it would be kind of fun to see the Kings play wildcat basketball.

"Shut up and Coach!"
Vfettke

by SavageBeast on Sep 28, 2009 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions

Positions aren't that important on offense

It is defense where you have to worry about having matching up to your opponent. On offense, you are actually trying to create mismatches. The fact that Spencer can pull the other team’s center away from the basket on offense is a good thing. That will open up space for Tyreke to abuse the opponents PG in the paint. When they collapse, we will have Spencer, JT, BigMay and Martin around him to hit open shots.

by markdog333 on Sep 28, 2009 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions

So, the question remains

Is Spencer Raef Lafrentz or the bastard child of Dirk and Vlade?

by Carl on Sep 28, 2009 8:20 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs

I'll take bastard child of Dirk and Vlade Alex

Sacramento Kings for 200.

Father of the "Natt this!" movement and Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order.

by Aykis16 on Sep 28, 2009 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions

Um

Don’t forget that Raef was actually a very useful player before he blew out his knee. Spemcer though reminds me much more of Vlade and Pau Gasol with less athleticism than Pau, but more range than either. There is a legitimate concern he falls too much in love with the long ball. However, if he can keep up his speed and athleticism while putting on weight, he can be one of the most skilled post player in the league. Very advanced offensively. D is the bigger question for me.

by SPTSJUNKIE on Sep 29, 2009 2:35 AM PDT up reply actions

Some might call this blaspemous...

but May might actually be a better fit playing alongside Spencer than JT. Spencer never has played with much of a low post threat during his short career besides Ike for the last 2 games of last year. If May can be a threat down low drawing some double teams, that could give Spencer even more wide open looks if he steps back to the 3pt line. JT still looks unsure of himself in the post as should be expected of a player who grew up playing guard for most of his basketball life. A better low post game from the 4 spot might do wonders in complimenting Spencer’s game. Should be interesting to watch it play out during the season..

Damn you Robert Horry!!!

by chupacabara on Sep 28, 2009 8:42 AM PDT reply actions

Honestly

I’m not sure. The reviews of May thus far have talked about how smooth his mid-range shot is. I like JT’s 15-footer too, but I feel more comfortable with JT stationed by the rim (offensive boards, finishing when passed). JT has amazing hands and is a really stronger finisher. He doesn’t have the footwork, but you don’t necessarily need great footwork to be a solid post option. JT ain’t Dwight Howard, but Dwight has bad footwork and scores 22/game in the post. Think early McDyess, too.

by Tom Ziller on Sep 28, 2009 9:40 AM PDT up reply actions

Diogu?

I am not saying he is tops or that we should have kept him. There was just that one game last year where Diogu showed what he could do in the paint and used his body to create space and make hoops against bigger defenders. If JT could learn some of those moves it would take him very far. I think he has the body and drive to do this stuff. He is definitely competitive enough and seems to like the contact…

Otherwise, I think he just needs to dribble less and elevate with his rebounds. He tries too much finesse when a solid slam dunk could be easily had if he went straight up with the ball.

by MustangMBS on Sep 28, 2009 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions

Great observation

Diogu’s foot and body work in the low post in the last 2 games was awesome. If JT could learn those skills he would take his game to another level. Ditto on the dribble but by the end of the season he had learned to go up to the rim without having to dribble. When he dribbled to improve his position, it almost always resulted in a turnover.

"We are in the business of kicking butt and business is very, very good." - Charles Barkley

by Bluejohn on Sep 29, 2009 10:31 AM PDT up reply actions

As our only three legit bigs

you’ll get your chance to see the various combinations of Hawes, May and JT many many many times – and soon!
I too believe (as TZ does) that JT belongs primarily near the rim. He is our best finisher down there. (pending May’s performance in what i desperately hope will be an injury free season)

So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on Sep 28, 2009 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions

sorry K-9 but . . .

(woof)

So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on Sep 28, 2009 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions

Thing I Like about Hawes

Spencer was a gangly pudgy kid when the Kings drafted him. His pre-draft combine numbers were rather anemic in terms of strength and quickness. Now Hawes looks like an athlete. His body fat is way down and his strength has improved significantly. In my mind that will translate on the court to better reaction time, an ability to track down rebounds, hold better low post position, and beat his man to a sweet spot in the lane to draw a foul, and also improved ability to fill a lane. And I would add being a better athlete allows a player to be in the right place defensively to avoid foul trouble.

Add his athletic ability to his already established basketball skill level, and instead of modest numbers around 10/6/3, you get into more fruitful production in the realm of 17/9/4. With a coaching staff keen to his skill, and with natural player progression aided by his off-season regimen and dedication, I look for Spencer to take his game to next level.

by bench_blob on Sep 28, 2009 10:23 AM PDT reply actions

Hawes has a real chance at becoming a stud

The thing that I often forget about Spencer is that he’s only 21 and already has 2 years of NBA experience. I like that he shoots the 3-ball and has proven efficient at it because this will extend defenses to the perimeter and give Martin and Evans room to slash to the basket. I think that could be a real key to success this year.

I like his numbers right now but I really hope that with time on the court and in the weightroom, they will only go up. A new coaching staff should also help. The main question that I have for Hawes is when is he going to be able to guard the elite, physical centers in this league? TZ pointed out that he struggles with the main duties of an NBA center and I really hope that changes soon. In order to beat teams in this league you must protect the paint. I hope Spencer improves in these areas of his game or Westphal may have to slide JT over to guard the Duncans, Yaos and Howards of this league.

by MTBalla on Sep 28, 2009 10:37 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs

well said, MTB

rec’d.

A -It seems that some of the “complaints” about Spencer is that he has “too many” skills. Wow!

B – At 21 years of age, he has smarts, BB IQ, and a large frame that is getting wider and stronger with his negatives being limited athletically and has been historically injury prone.

That is a recipe for transformation – but only if Spencer does not try to go all directions at once. Pick some strengths, gain confidence (though this does not seem lacking) dress up the results so everyone can point, smile and nod, then work on expansion – more dimension, less weaknesses.

We fans have been talking about Kevin Martin and Tyreke Evans as present/future All-Stars. Bemoaning the lack of big man talent in the League, it is not so far a stretch to foresee Hawes on a mid-season showcase roster.

by betweentheeyes on Sep 28, 2009 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions

Agreed about the need for focus

My chief concern is that there won’t be sufficient focus on developing the truly excellent talents of Spence and instead he will be forced to focus on what he isn’t good at. Neglecting some truly special gifts.

The Kings need to play smarter and that means developing and working with the talent of each player. Using this talent in the most effective way and not trying to force players into roles that don’t suit their best abilities (e.g. Douby at PG last year).

Spence should not be expected to fulfill the role of the traditional Center. That just isn’t the best way to use him. In doing so he may end up playing a game in which he doesn’t have the opportunity to do, as TZ so aptly describes, the stuff that makes him a truly special and uniquely gifted player.

by MustangMBS on Sep 28, 2009 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions

Deadly combinations

Spencer can be one of the deadliest 3-point shooters on the team. He is so tall that you put him on the line and one of the bigs from the other team HAS to guard him. Now you also line up Garcia and Martin around the three point line with really good spacing.

Tyreke drives in, with JT waiting to clean up, and when the defense collapses you have oh so many options. If it doesn’t collapse you have a sure basket for Reke. If he misses either he or JT gets the rebound.

If there isn’t a shot then a pass out to either Hawes or Garcia works as they are both good passers. Martin can drive into an already chaotic and dismantled defense.

This is going to great to watch!!

by MustangMBS on Sep 28, 2009 12:45 PM PDT reply actions

This sounds both plausible, and quite good as an offensive framework. Plays to the strength of the players, and likely the weaknesses of the opposition.

by chri5 on Sep 28, 2009 6:28 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions

Hope/Expectation

My hope and expectation is that Hawes will come in this year better than last year in all phases of his game. His natural growth, which may continue for another year or two, is going to help with some of the strength issues. In addition, we know that he has been working on his strength all off-season. Personally, I think his intense competitiveness will lead to his continuous improvement. This guy cares about being good. With that said, although I’ll think his game is going to improve in all phases including posting up, rebounding and defense, I’m not expecting Spencer to ever be a traditional center. It’s not his game; it’s not his natural instinct. And that’s ok: I’ll take the combo of Vlade/Dirk/Walton. Spencer’s has a ton of talent. If he can find the worth ethic of KMart and get better every offseason, then I think we’ll all be very happy with result when Spencer is just a bit older.

by Kusian on Sep 28, 2009 1:17 PM PDT reply actions