Tyreke Evans and the Chalice of Point Guard Purity
by Ziller on Sep 28, 2009 12:33 PM PDT
in Numbers
36 comments
J.K. Rowling's got some new steez, futhermuckas! It's name is Tyreke Evans, and he seeks the Chalice of Point Guard Purity.
Because, you see, only by obtaining and grasping a completely mythical artifact will he convince the world that he holds some semblance of point guardness.
Requisite disclosure: John Hollinger is handsome and saintly. Who has two thumbs and likes John Hollinger? This guy. <<points at everyone>> Everyone likes Hollinger's work, including me, because Hollinger's work is very valuable. It's awesome.
But everyone makes mistakes. Even John Hollinger!
The Kings drafted Evans as a point guard, hoping he'd replace the ineffective Udrih, but on paper he looks a lot more like a shooting guard. He's a slasher who had low assist rates in college and stands 6-5; historically players of that ilk migrate to shooting guard within two years of entering the league.
Low assist rates ... low assist rates ... hmm. <<looks up Tyreke Evans's assist rates in college>> Hmm, an assist rate of 30.0. Hmm, is that low for a future NBA point guard?
<<looks up Derrick Rose's assist rates in college>> Hmm, an assist rate of ... 30.4. Hmm ... seems pretty similar to that of Evans. <<looks up college assist rate current, unquestioned NBA point guards D.J. Augustin, Russell Westbrook, George Hill and Mario Chalmers, the last of which was a starting point guard on a playoff team>> Hmm, 30.5, 24.4, 24.2, 24.5.
<<reaches conclusion>> If Tyreke Evans had low assist rates in college, then Derrick Rose, D.J. Augustin, Russell Westbrook, George Hill and Mario Chalmers had low assist rates in college. And if Tyreke Evans's low college assist rates mean he'll be a shooting guard in two years, then I suppose we can infer that Derrick Rose, D.J. Augustin, Russell Westbrook, George Hill and Mario Chalmers will be shooting guards in two years.
***
The specific reason this bugs me is that Hollinger attributes the myth of Tyreke Evans's shooting guardness to paper, when paper actually says something completely different. So when Tyreke Evans busts out a triple-double in November, people are going to think the paper lied to them, when really it was just translated poorly.
In conclusion, paper does not say Tyreke Evans is a two-guard unless paper also says Derrick Rose is a two-guard.
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Well done
As a standard rule of thumb, I’ll rec any story where TZ uses the term “futhermuckers”.
Never forget: I am a complete idiot
by Exhibit G on Sep 28, 2009 12:46 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Nice analysis
I’m curious as to know how some college players get the pure point guard label and some others don’t. Augustin averaged 3.5 assists per 26 mins of play when Tyreke averaged 3.7 assists in 29 mins. If you compare a bunch of college points, they’ll all mostly have pretty similar assist numbers, with maybe a +/- 1 assist disparity.
by CloudyEyes on Sep 28, 2009 12:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
At work...on lunch...
I can’t look it up right now, but what are the Assist-to-Turnover numbers? If ’Reke’s are 3.7-to-3.5 and Augustin’s are 3.5-to-1.0, then that would explain pure PG label.
"We ain't in the takin' prisoners business. We in the killin' Nazi's business...and Cousin, business is a-boomin'."
by PhutureKings on Sep 28, 2009 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tyreke's A/TO was very poor.
About even money, if I remember correctly
Also comparing Augustin’s pro averages to Tyreke’s college numbers is a bit apples to oranges. FWIW, Augustin averaged like 6 APG at Texas. But then again, Tyreke had to play the 2 for the first dozen games of the season, so his numbers may be a bit askew as well.
by unfair weather on Sep 28, 2009 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He quoted Augustin's Texas assist rate
the link was in the number not the name. Here it is again. The link in the name is an automatic “feature” of SBNation.
Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott
by Kfan in Korea on Sep 28, 2009 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But who's on second?
…I was referencing Cloudy, not Ziller
by unfair weather on Sep 28, 2009 2:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know...
3rd Base!
Sorry.
Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott
by Kfan in Korea on Sep 28, 2009 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is where I put my foot in my mouth
Yeah, I was going by what I remembered and just double checked. Evans’ stats were 3.9 assists per 29 mins with a 1.08 assist to turnover ratio. Augustin had 5.8 assists per 37 mins, but with a 2.09 a/t ratio.
Anyway, my statement about amount of assists per game still holds fairly true, as most college PGs will have around the same number of assists, given a certain amount of minutes.
Phuture pretty much answered my question that Pure Points are labeled through their a/t ratio… and yeah, Tyreke did have a horrible assist to turnover ratio. He’ll really need to improve on that.
by CloudyEyes on Sep 28, 2009 5:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe types of assists matter too
If a player gets his assists by running a specific offensive system, then you would attribute less value to his PG skills than a player who gets the same amount of assists in a system that doesn’t involve as many PG passes.
Wasn’t a major component of the Memphis offense was that it was heavy on PGs and allowed them to do alot of the work? So, if Tyreke had so many opportunities to control the ball, as averse to a player playing Princeton who’s supposed to bring up the ball then make a pass quickly before the offensive set develops, then you have to give the player playing Princeton a higher PG rating because he managed to get the same amount of assists when he didn’t have the option.
In this case the Princeton is a bad example, because in those sets the system overrules the player, and you really can’t give the player higher PG-IQ points just because he’s playing in a certain system. Rather, the compensation should be made for number of possessions the PG is allowed to make a decision, and how often that turns into an assist or a score.
Hmmmm…. I wonder how you can quantify that number. Suggestions, Ziller?
Victory is tasty.
by iashwash on Sep 28, 2009 6:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
With Hollinger its always about the numbers and rankings,
so the natural question is why does he use the same retread excuse that the journalists who don’t use statistics came up with when the numbers point in the other direction. I guess as Ziller points out we all make mistakes, but I guess even statisticians rely on the old cliche from time to time.
There now I've met the 75 word count. -pookeyguru
by moproblemz on Sep 28, 2009 12:56 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Good Points, Z.
And, in keeping w/ the Rowling theme, I’d also like to introduce Kenny Thomas as “He Whose Contract Shall not be Spoken About.”
"We ain't in the takin' prisoners business. We in the killin' Nazi's business...and Cousin, business is a-boomin'."
by PhutureKings on Sep 28, 2009 1:10 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Are you kidding? This is finally the moment we've all been waiting for
The Kenny Thomas Expiring Contract (KTEC)!
by LPKingsFan on Sep 28, 2009 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
True that!
So, the role will be filled by Beno, then?
"We ain't in the takin' prisoners business. We in the killin' Nazi's business...and Cousin, business is a-boomin'."
by PhutureKings on Sep 29, 2009 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Phuture that may have been true for the previous 11* years of his contract
(slight exaggeration*) but I would like KT to be “He whose expiring contract shall be spoken about quite often in order to bring in some more talent to a young team.”
There now I've met the 75 word count. -pookeyguru
by moproblemz on Sep 28, 2009 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good luck
I think we’re stuck with him if thats what we want back.
To the bitter end.
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
by lietothegirls on Sep 28, 2009 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Optimism,
is a necessary evil for a team this bad.
There now I've met the 75 word count. -pookeyguru
by moproblemz on Sep 28, 2009 3:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here's how ESPN defines a player as point guard
The smallest / shortest guys on the floor is the point guard by default. Smallest guy = PG, Biggest guy = C — regardless of the player’s skill sets or actual position.
Easy Primer:
Above 7’0" – Center
6’10" – 6’11" – Power Forward
Above 6’10" and can dish – Point Forward
6’8" – 6’9" – SF
6’8" – 6’9" but doesn’t score 15+ PPG – Undersized PF
6’6"- 6’7" – SG / Swingman
6’4" – 6’5" – Small SG / Combo guard
Below 6’3" – PG
Below 6’3" but doesn’t pass – Undersized SG
It’s called analysis via TV screen — that’s how all the kids are doing it nowadays. And by kids, I mean highly paid experts on TV. Therefore any player who doesn’t conform to the archetypes is bound to fail.*
*Magic Johnson doesn’t count, because at ESPN, the NBA only exists A.J. (After Jordan).
There's nothing to fear but everything.
by elfboy_ on Sep 28, 2009 1:55 PM PDT reply actions 4 recs
like bringing a racing form to the track
rec’d
by betweentheeyes on Sep 28, 2009 7:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kings media live streaming..
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/2009-10-sacramento-kings#utm_campaign=twitter.com&utm_source=1485621&utm_medium=social
by Burrito3 on Sep 28, 2009 2:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
PG as pass first or not a true PG
I think it is just that a “true” PG mean, to many, a pass first PG. Somebody that passes first as opposed to somebody that has so much driving ability that they will take their own shot about just as often or greater.
It isn’t how many assists versus turnovers. You can have a “true” PG that just turns over the ball a lot. I think Sergio might have fit that category in the past.
I would happy if Tyreke played more like Dwayne Wade than tried to play more of pass first PG role.
by MustangMBS on Sep 28, 2009 2:52 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
man...
My grammar really sucks when I type too fast… I drop whole words.
by MustangMBS on Sep 28, 2009 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
and more importantly,
who cares if he is a “true” or “pure” PG? I recall this discussion during the playoffs in which someone on these pages pointed out the few of the teams actually in the playoffs had a “true” or “pure” PG, including the futhermuckers South of here. Thanks for the post, because when I read Hollinger today, it pissed me off because I generally respect his opinion. Nice to see that it was ill-informed.
by longtimelistenerfirsttimecaller on Sep 28, 2009 3:32 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Just adding a +1 to another well-written article
You should really be doing this professionally.
by Carl on Sep 28, 2009 3:38 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
From "The futhermuckers South of here"
The reason a Lakers’ PG will never be a ‘true’ point guard, is that the triangle uses the PG as a spot-up shooter about 60 procent of the time, so you could argue that the definition of ‘true’ point guard differs for each and every system you can run.
by Maes on Sep 28, 2009 4:23 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
exactly,
so we build an offense based on our personnel, not the other way around.
by longtimelistenerfirsttimecaller on Sep 28, 2009 4:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
not really
some teams just use offenses that utilize ‘true’ point guards than others. you can argue that the definition of point guard varies by system…and that some of those done emphasize ‘true’ point guards
by DustyG on Sep 29, 2009 8:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Love this article....
…thanks for posting it, because it uses FACTS to dispel a LOT of conjecture. Only time will surely tell, but if past performance is indicative of future performance, then Tyreke has a VERY promising future ahead as an NBA PG for the Sacramento Kings.
by Smills91 on Sep 28, 2009 5:54 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
PS...
…where do you find college assist rates at? I’m trying to find those of Deron Williams, Chris Paul and Rajon Rondo. Thanks
by Smills91 on Sep 28, 2009 5:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is this what you're looking for?
Thank you statsheet.com
The only real criticism / reason I see why people feel Reke ain’t a PG is his (admittedly) brutal (by comparison) Ast/TO ratio.
There's nothing to fear but everything.
by elfboy_ on Sep 28, 2009 11:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm a broken record
but you only get assists if you have players who score easy baskets, either catch and shoot or turn and shoot.
Too many dribbles on this team last year.
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
by lietothegirls on Sep 28, 2009 6:38 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Don't believe the numbers...
It’s already been fessed, the assist is the most home cooked stat in the world. Scorekeepers home cook (and boy are we gonna home cook this year with Tyreke) We’ll make the world see what a great PG he is.
Confessions Of An NBA Scorekeeper
http://deadspin.com/5345287/the-confessions-of-an-nba-scorekeeper
There's nothing to fear but everything.
by elfboy_ on Sep 28, 2009 11:00 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for this, Zil.
I wholeheartedly agree.
October 28th couldn't come soon enough.
by JETisKing on Sep 29, 2009 7:03 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Evans vs Rose
As a Memphis resident I had the opportunity to see both Evans and Rose play a lot in college. I can tell you honestly that Rose is much more of a traditional PG than Evans. Evans is a more forceful personality on the court who overpowers people while Rose just burned past them.
I think Evans will be successful in the NBA especially in late game situations where anyone can run the offense but don’t be confused by one stat (that means Hollinger too). You have to see him play to understand why people see him being the type of player who will control the ball in crucial situations but is not a prototypical big Point Guard.
Please visit www.3sob.com
by chipc3 on Sep 29, 2009 8:44 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
To be fair
From the snippet it seems like Hollinger wasn’t basing his argument soley upon assist rate, but also that Reke is 6’5" and a slasher—and I think those claims are true.
Tyreke’s assist rate doesn’t seem to be of concern compared with the players listed above, but I am concerned with his assist and turnover numbers. And I hope he is a better ‘true’ or passing point guard for the Kings than his assist and turnover numbers suggest to me.
Hollinger’s work may have been a bit sloppy, but we are still playing a guy at PG with what I consider questionable point guard skills.
And yes, I realize that Tyreke has a very good skillset himself (I’m generally pumped on the guy), and that statistics have inherent limitations.
by DustyG on Sep 29, 2009 8:56 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Rec
I think the general point that Hollinger was trying to make is that big point guards who aren’t exceptionally good passers ultimately migrate to the two because they can’t run the point full time without dominating the ball too much. Evans certainly is an upgrade; the only question is whether he’s getting the rock around enough or looking for his own shot.
To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.
by Ben R on Sep 29, 2009 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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