30Q: Can the Kings' Defense Possibly Be That Bad Again?

by Tom Ziller on Sep 29, 2009 12:00 PM PDT in Commentary

30Q asks the important questions about the Kings all through September.

If a thing is destroyed to the point which not even wreckage remains, you can't perform an autopsy. That basically describes the difficulties in figuring out everything that went wrong with the 2008-09 Sacramento Kings, and even moreso the defense of the 2008-09 Sacramento Kings.

So little remains from the start of last season that it's hard to assess what's next. At least three and possibly four positions in the starting lineup will be different than last training camp as practice begins today. The coaching staff has been remade, expectations lowered, styles changed.

And while we have an idea of what to expect on offense -- Kevin Martin will score efficiently, Tyreke Evans will draw fouls, Jason Thompson will get put backs, Spencer Hawes and the small forwards will shoot tons of threes -- we have no clue how the team will perform on defense.

But we can try to predict it.

The numbers say that the team won't be as bad at defending the three-point line, that opponents will get fewer second-chance points and that the removal of Brad Miller can only help the interior. But it remains to be seen how much those changes will improve the Kings defense, and whether it will be enough to get the Kings out of the league's defensive cellar.

First, on the topic of opponent three-point shooting: Neil Paine of Basketball-Reference took a look at season-to-season correlation of the statistic. In other words, is a team with success defending the three-point line likely to have success defending the three-point line in the following season? Is a team which sucks at defending the three-point line likely to continue to suck defending the three-point line?

Paine found very little correlation between season-to-season opponent three-point shooting. Regression to the mean would predict the Kings' three-point defense to improve regardless of any moves (strategically or in terms of personnel); Paine's study reinforces regression to the mean in this instance by showing that there is plenty of variability in the statistic leaguewide. In all likelihood, and though leaguewide shooting typically improves year-to-year, it seems unlikely the Kings will again allow opponents to shoot 40% from three. So there's some improvement there.

We have discussed defensive rebounding, and I believe it's a good opportunity for defensive improvement on this team. Sean May and Jon Brockman are big improvements over Mikki Moore on the boards; Andres Nocioni, Omri Casspi and Donte Greene would all be an improvement over John Salmons at small forward (and Noce is fairly even with Moore at PF); and Tyreke Evans will be a monumental rebounding upgrade in the backcourt. The Kings finished 29th in defensive rebounding last season; I don't think league average would be out of the question this season.

Finally, I do think the expulsion of Brad Miller could help the defense. According to 82games.com, the Kings defense was 1.4 points per 48 minutes better when Miller was out of the game. Miller's backups were Moore, Hawes and Thompson. Think about that.

In the 2002-03 season, the Kings had the No. 2 defense in the league. The starting five was Bibby/Christie/Peja/Webber/Divac. Webber blew out his knee in the playoffs and missed most of the 2003-04 season, during which the primary starting five was Bibby/Christie/Peja/Miller/Divac. The bench defense definitely downgraded -- from Jim Jackson, Keon Clark and Hedo Turkoglu to Anthony Peeler and Darius Songaila. But primarily, the major minutes change was from Webber to Miller.

The 2003-04 team had the 21st ranked defense in the league. Before Miller, the team had allowed opponents to shoot .439 from two-point range. With Miller, the team allowed opponents to shoot .477 from two-point range. That's roughly a 5-point per game difference.

Now this isn't to say Hawes and Thompson are a major difference from Miller. But there is potential that they will be a major difference, and you can't ignore that given how truly awful a defender Miller has proven to be over the past five seasons. There is a sincere opportunity for defensive improvement in the frontcourt.

Again, we'll see how all this adds up.

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I think

we will see steady improvement the next few years (ala the Atlanta Hawks).

We will be primarily an offensive team (raising our efficiency is key), and the foundation is being laid to be a rugged team on the defensive end harras people, get in their faces, hack em rough D. I think having a coherent plan and coaching staff will really help and shooting for middle of the pack on defense is not out of the question.

Blessings.Love.Peace

by lifestyleforthesellout on Sep 29, 2009 12:15 PM PDT reply actions

I think it will be better

There won’t be coaching roulette, plus the addition of Evans should help the pick and roll defense and slow down the opposing point guard penetration.

How much better? Remains to be seen – but I’d guess they will still be in the lower echelon of the league, just due to the size of the hill they are climbing.

What the hell is Brett Favre doing here?

by otis29 on Sep 29, 2009 12:20 PM PDT reply actions

Copying and pasting from another topic

Look at the wings. If Tyreke commits himself he’ll be an excellent defender because he’s too big and too fast. Deron Williams and Chris Paul will give him trouble, but they give everybody trouble. Kevin Martin is a fairly weak defender. He’s quick but not that strong. When healthy he’s got a ton of energy and will work his ass off on D, but he’s just not great. Cisco and Nocioni, our potential starting 3s, are both excellent defenders. They’re pesky and bother other players, sometimes to a surprising degree. Quite frankly, having Martin flanked by Tyreke and Cisco/Nocioni does quite a bit to mask his defensive woes. As far as the front court is concerned I think Hawes could use some improvement on D, but at the same time I think he’s a better defender than we give him credit for. If JT could quit fouling all the god damned time he’d be an excellent defender. Overall, we have the potential (which is the key word with this team in any aspect) to be a fairly good defensive team. Well, the starters at least. I worry about the defense from our bench. We won’t be the ’04 Pistons, but we might not be completely terrible.

www.mancancook.net

by vfettke on Sep 29, 2009 12:32 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs

Pretty much

What he said.

by Citadel 29 on Sep 29, 2009 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions

Westphal's first comments

about rebuilding this team, and his seeming hand in the draft appear to point to a focus on defense. I know a lot of people here are, or at least were, not all that excited about Westphal. But if there is one thing experience brings, it’s the ability to understand what you can and can not effect. I don’t think Westphal would spend as much time banging on defense and toughness as he has if he didn’t think inside that he could change it. One of my biggest hopes this year is that the Kings return to being at least an average defense team. That would cut down on the blowouts and bring a lot more of the close games into reach. If we can play real D, 30+ games is not out of reach.

"Shut up and Coach!"
Vfettke

by SavageBeast on Sep 29, 2009 12:37 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs

Shorter version.

“It is impossible to contemplate/accept/stomach that the Kings’ defense could be that bad again.”

Vfettke’s reference reminded me that I had thought a more committed, rugged group around Martin would allow him to focus any defensive energy he is willing to muster on what should be a strength – the passing lanes.

Lower their expectations and rise to met them

by left hand on Sep 29, 2009 12:40 PM PDT reply actions

It can't be worse

repeat after me:
It can’t be worseIt can’t be worseIt can’t be worseIt can’t be worseIt can’t be worseIt can’t be worseIt can’t be worseIt can’t be worseIt can’t be worseIt can’t be worseIt can’t be worseIt can’t be worseIt can’t be worseIt can’t be worseIt can’t be worse

So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on Sep 29, 2009 12:54 PM PDT reply actions

Effort will make it better

Obviously the team was a disaster by the end of the year, a coherant system and effort will make the defense better this year. With all our young guys, there are going to be some horrific games though, but I agree it can’t be worse.

That doesn’t mean I think it will be good. Even with solid effort, Tyreke/Hawes/JT are going to commit way too many fouls and we have way too little time together as a team to be an even average defensive team most of the time.

Professional Hyperbole Slayer

by ForThree on Sep 29, 2009 1:07 PM PDT reply actions

The coaching should concentrate

on Teamwork over and over again early on.
I know its simplistic to say that, but any semblance of a team concept will lead to more wins, better defense and offense – and at least a few more (10?) wins.
They should be brutal about sitting down anyone who doesn’t play team ball.

So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on Sep 29, 2009 1:13 PM PDT up reply actions

Personally, I think 'Reke will be the difference maker for us on defense

Our biggest problem last year was that opposing guards could get to wherever they wanted. ‘Reke is going to be guarding whoever is the better of the two backcourt players, and his wingspan is going to make it hard for them to get around him. If we prevent easy penetration, our interior defense should also get better since JT and Spence won’t have to come help on the guards who are slashing to the rim (and leaving their guy alone for the guard to pass to for an easy basket)

Father of the "Natt this!" movement and Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order.

by Aykis16 on Sep 29, 2009 1:32 PM PDT reply actions

Somebody out there needs to start talking

For all of his off-court shenanigans and his ball-hogging on offense, Artest talked constantly on the defensive side, which had a major impact on team defense. His replacement, “Silent John” Salmons, barely made a peep while on the court (or off). Let’s hope Reke and the other newcomers are all talkers, and that it’s contagious.

From the people who brought you Reggie Musselnatt.

by My Losing Season on Sep 29, 2009 2:24 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs

I hadn't thought of that

But it’s a great point. Spencer, JT and Cisco (not sure about Reke) might be willing to be vocal leaders on the floor. Not just calling out defenses, but getting the group together during play stoppages and making sure everyone knows what they are supposed to be doing.

What the hell is Brett Favre doing here?

by otis29 on Sep 29, 2009 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions

To take it a step further

With Brad, John, and Bobby gone, this team’s “veterans” are Cisco and K-Mart. We know Cisco likes being vocal but maybe with those other “older” figures he wasn’t able to be AS vocal as he would have liked. For example, as much as we needed someone to yell at Brad last year, Cisco probably never did because of Brad’s age and experience. This year is different. Now, we have a team full of young players who can grow together so it’s going to be easier to push and challenge each other.

The future begins now...

by eduardo_m7 on Sep 29, 2009 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions

I'd add Noc to that list

Provided he’s not preoccupied with his next “Ole!” interview.

From the people who brought you Reggie Musselnatt.

by My Losing Season on Sep 29, 2009 3:07 PM PDT up reply actions

That's one thing I liked about Flynn at least

He’s a Floor General. He is constantly talking while on the court. At least on the offensive end.

Father of the "Natt this!" movement and Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order.

by Aykis16 on Sep 29, 2009 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions

Are there any vocal guys on this team?

I’m not sure the answer is yes in basketball terms. If there is one, the staff should assign that person to do just what MLS suggests. Whether those directions are Right or wrong, getting them to communicate on the court is something that has been missing and it can only get better.
Rec’d

So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on Sep 29, 2009 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions