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On Tyreke Evan's Chaste Chalice: A Follow-up

A few days ago, just before tailing off to Kings media day, I published a takedown of John Hollinger's ESPN preview which cited Tyreke Evans's low college assist rates as a pointer that Too Easy will be a full-time shooting guard within two seasons. The numbers show that Evans's college assist rates are comparable with those of Derrick Rose, and better than full-time point guards like Mario Chalmers.

Hollinger emailed me to clear the air ... and he makes some good points. You can find our exchange after the jump.

Star-divide

Here's the exchange, slightly edited for formatting.

***

JOHN HOLLINGER: Tom -- your point today was correct -- Evans's Assist Rates aren't the problem. Or rather, they're only half the problem.

I misspoke in the story -- it's his Pure Point Rating that's the real issue -- a pace-adjusted -1.29 last season. Over the past seven years only four point guard prospects have been worse: Marcus Banks, Darius Washington, Daniel Ewing and Willie Deane.

By comparison, Rose was +0.66, Chalmers +1.24, [Russell] Westbrook +0.49 and [George] Hill -0.06.

ZILLER: Thanks for the follow-up, John. I appreciate that, and Evans having a low PPR is not surprising, now that you've reminded me about PPR.

Are all college PPRs so muted? You have Rose at +0.66 -- I remember the Nashes and even the Jason Harts up in the +7-11 range using NBA stats. If it's a similar scale among college PGs, it would look like Rose at +0.66 isn't actually that good a point guard either. I'm assuming the scale just comes out different, because Rose ended up around +4 last season, near Felton and Bibby.

Thanks again for the follow-up, and the reminder about PPR. I'm still not giving up hope! Though there is the hope that if Evans really cannot play point, his rebounding and defense will be good enough that Martin can move up to small forward, which obviously isn't ideal, but perhaps necessary. We'll see.

HOLLINGER: Yes, the scale ends up different for college since most scorers don't hand out assists like Halloween candy the way they do in the pros and if I'm not mistaken a higher percentage of points come on free throws.

Though I see him as a pure SG, I think Evans is going to be a hell of a player and it sets up an interesting dilemma in another year or two, whether to move Kevin to 3 [small forward] or trade him.

ZILLER: Luckily, I suppose, the Kings are in no rush to do anything other than compete for the second-worst record in the league. Positionality can wait. 

***

I will note as a post script that I've never been completely sold on PPR -- I find it to be a fairly arbritary metric that, more than anything, measures point guard quality with a heavy emphasis on low turnover rates. Last year, I did a study for BallHype which measured point guard purity in a different way, one which gave us The Purity Scale.

Regardless, while Hollinger makes a strong case, I'm willing to take a wait-and-see approach.

Comment 10 comments  |  2 recs  | 

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Further analysis?

Good piece. I think that we can get past the need to blame the issue of the Kings on not having a pure point guard. That may help some of us get past passing on Rubio.

Maybe it isn’t so much whether or not you have a pure point guard if the system you are using doesn’t absolutely demand that talent. Obviously GP thinks that the Princeton offense is one such system. He seems to shun pure point guards and only go after combo guards.

Other analysis?
Perhaps there is way to measure the type of offensive, categorically, and see how the purity of the point guards relates to wins across the different categories. We could type offense and then factor in, logistic regression here, purity of PGs… Have done a log reg in forever.

Does transition games, such as the Suns, benefit from pure PGs. Anecdotally, one would have to say yes given Nash… Do half-court games favor Combo guards? Parker and the Spurs? Interesting…

by MustangMBS on Sep 30, 2009 11:20 AM PDT reply actions  

oops

I have not done a logistic regression in forever..

by MustangMBS on Sep 30, 2009 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

Thanks for sharing this exchange with us

Your advanced stats analyses are always both fascinating and fun.

Personally, I think that a couple of months from now we’re all going to look back on all the ink being dedicated to “Is Tyreke Evans a Point Guard” and wonder what the hell all the fuss was about. I won’t bother going into all of the “this successful team has this guy in this position and that guy in that position, compared to that other team…”; the point is teams can be successful in a number of different ways, and it’s the job of the coaching staff and management to maximize and utilize the talent that they have to score more points than their opponent.

I’m pretty confident that Westphal, Coachie, and Petrie have enough Offensive acumen between them to allow Tyreke and Kevin to both do their thing on the court, however the positions end up shaking-out.

"Sometimes the capriciousness of youth anesthetizes common sense." -Let Geoff's words guide our patience this season.

by AnotherStupidSN on Sep 30, 2009 11:32 AM PDT reply actions  

Thanks for the insights

from both you and Hollinger. I’ve said it before, but this is the kind of meat and potatoes that keeps me coming back to Sactown for my Kings news. Love the Bee, but you can imagine getting this kind of analysis there? Maybe it’s just that the average fan doesn’t care for this kind of breakdown, but I love it. Keep up the great reporting. Recd.

"Shut up and Coach!"
Vfettke

by SavageBeast on Sep 30, 2009 1:57 PM PDT reply actions  

Agreed 100%

Now excuse me while I change some song lyrics for my next post…

Never forget: I am a complete idiot

by Exhibit G on Sep 30, 2009 3:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

Evans Didn't Play PG

the whole time, so his stats may also be skewed in that regard. Still, it is “wait and see” for everyone I guess.

I am not worried that he be a “natural passer” or a “pass-first” pg. All that matter is that, on defense can he keep his man in front of him, and on offense can he impose his will on his defender. If he can force the double team, he does not need to be the most skilled passer to find an open man.

by markdog333 on Sep 30, 2009 2:12 PM PDT reply actions  

Its a valid point Hollinger makes

and time will definately tell one way or the other.

Starting to look like Sergio for now though.

So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on Sep 30, 2009 3:05 PM PDT reply actions  

The other question in the building of a point guard: Nature or Nurture?

Steve Nash, John Stockton, Magic Johnson, Oscar Robertson, Lenny Wilkins, Bob Cousy, isaiah Thomas, Jason Kidd = the greatest PGs of basketball. Can we compare Tyreke Evans to these guys – NO (that was a resounding negative). These guys had point guard in their DNA (gene mapping reveals it is located on the #1 allele and closely associated with the BB IQ gene, dexterity gene and visual acuity genes). That is their nature.

What of nuture – can an NBA point guard be built? Can Larry Brown (a strong PG teacher and former 1-Guard) or Don Nelson (the progenitor of the point forward) construct a capable, serviceable point guard? One could argue that Tony Parker, Devin Harris and the most often used example, Russell Westbrook are all examples of “system generated” success. Gilbert Arenas, is a point guard of sorts (when not injured) and Larry Brown’s use of Allen Iverson (getting him to pass the d*** ball) are other examples of making a silk purse out of a sow’s ear, basketball speaking. If Tyreke is not quite a point guard – can Paul Westphal show some Optimus Prime and transform hiim to look like one?

One other point as the spark to this discussion is statistics, formulas and numbers – the use of concrete to describe the abstract – sometimes the figures can create or dismiss success. Mayor Kevin, and rookie Sun Nash were statistical failures when they started in The Association. Systems and score keepers pothole or pave the path to acceptability. If Tyreke averages oh, let’s say, 4.5 assists, 1.2 steals in 28 minutes per game this rookie season – will that sate the appetite of those who determine who is or is not a point guard? Or are we all going to use our eyes and brains to say – “I can see it” or “square peg in a round hole” – and is one year enough to make that call?

Questions abound, answers are few.

by betweentheeyes on Sep 30, 2009 3:37 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

Using the past to tell the future...it doesn't always work!

I have to appreciate Hollinger’s willingness to engage with us StR folks, I think it is great, and it has certainly raised my opinion of him. It’s way cool that he engaged us in a dialogue and provided us some extra insight that, without any basketball to watch, is much appreciated!

I do enjoy the systems out there (e.g. PER) that put value on player performance, however I still believe that when we are looking at human behavior there are many more factors to take into account. Simple setting events like moving to a new town, playing with new teammates, or living with a neighbor whose dogs keep you awake at night can all lead to muddled predictions and skewed results, despite past performance.

That being said, I believe we have a lot to look forward to. Regardless of position, Evans looks to be an impressive player. Let’s just hope that knee heals quickly!

by DirtyDribblers on Sep 30, 2009 5:28 PM PDT reply actions  

Extrapolation

Just as you pointed out, there are problems with using the past to tell the future. We cannot model infinite reality using finite means (a formula). Hollinger, or most anyone else who does modelling, is usually the first to point out the limitations of their craft.

So does that mean that we shouldn’t try? Or does it mean we should keep in mind these limitations and try our best to use what information we have to make the best evaluations decisions? It’s really all we have to go on, right? The Kings have NO IDEA how I will develop as a player, as they can’t predict the future; but I think they made the right decison drafting Tyreke.

Having said that, there is certain no reason why people shouldn’t be critical of Hollinger’s attempts at these compound statistics and using them to predict future performance.

I like Tyreke, too. But his stats combined with what I saw of him in VSL makes me think that he has a lot of skills to develop yet as a PG. The recent past indicates that he is adaptable and develops skills quickly…I hope we can count on that holding true going forward.

by DustyG on Oct 1, 2009 9:04 AM PDT up reply actions  

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