30Q: How Much Will Injuries Affect the Kings?

by Tom Ziller on Sep 5, 2009 6:07 AM PDT in Commentary

30Q asks the important questions about the Kings all through September.

Interesting timing, this.

Injuries will forever rip through the backs of our minds as Kings fans. Of course, other teams suffer just as many catastrophic injuries. Even champions and contenders -- the [redacted] have lost Andrew Bynum during two straight seasons, the Celtics lost Kevin Garnett last season, the Suns have twice lost Amar'e Stoudemire, the Spurs lost Manu Ginobili at critical points in each of the last two seasons, the Magic lost Jameer Nelson in the stretch run. Every team suffers major injuries; that the Kings injuries have kept the team under water isn't particularly noteworthy.

The specific issue is that Sacramento has a shallow talent pool. When the [redacted] lose Bynum, they can start Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom up front. When the Kings lose Kevin Martin, Rashad McCants is getting 30 minutes a night. When Manu's out, the Spurs have Tony Parker and Tim Duncan (and now Richard Jefferson). When Martin's out, Andres Nocioni and Spencer Hawes pick up the slack.

So, in that sense, injuries don't truly affect the Kings as much as a shallow talent pool does. The Kings are so thin the team just can't afford to lose a major producer, like Martin, Jason Thompson or (one would suspect) Tyreke Evans. Luckily, Thompson played all 82 games last season, Evans didn't miss a game in Memphis and Martin's ankle has healed. I'm beating the schnit out of some wood, like it pickpocketed me. Of course. I just don't think Martin's injuries can be considered chronic, and he has shown a willingness to play through pain. Ditto for Francisco Garcia, who will be nursing a broken finger.

Beno Udrih, on the other hand, has a reputation within the Kings organization as someone who can't play through pain. Some have said his injury is a good thing, as Evans and Sergio Rodriguez will grab more minutes in camp and preseason. I would argue that come October, Udrih has three months to save his Kings career, and we should be rooting for him to do so. Even if you're no Beno fan, having him as a sponge soaking cap space while giving nothing back is the worst-case scenario. I want him to succeed because he's a talented player, and the Kings need as much talent as possible. But no one will judge if you want him to succeed so trading him at some point in the future become realistic.

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durability: the unspoken statistic

The 2009 All-Star game line up:
Western Conf Starters: Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant, Amar’e Stoudamire, Tim Duncan, Yao Ming – possible games played last season: 410 (82 × 5) games actually played: 365 (78+82+53+75+77) for an average of 73.
Eastern Conf Starters: Allen Iverson, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Kevin Garnett, Dwight Howard – possible regular season games played last season: 410 (82×5), games actually played: 351 (57+77+81+57+79) for an average of 70.2

2009-09 Sacramento Kings: Games played: Francisco Garcia (65) Spencer Hawes (77), Bobby Jackson (71), Kevin Martin (51), Andres Nicioni (77), Jason Thompson (82), Beno Udrh (73) – 7 players; possible regular season games played 574, games actually played: 496 for an average of 70.86

The Kings are for the most part, I am guessing, are around the league average for games missed due to injury. I had trouble finding season statstics but the partials and updates that are in Google for various seasons, the Kings run in the middle of the pack. As fans, we are more acutely aware of our favorite team’s injuries. As Kings fans I reckon we rationalize the losses to some degree with the injury report.

As you succintly and clearly point out TZ, every professional athletic team deals with injuries. Injury reports and trainer updates are a staple of the roster. Talent and coaching determine if those problems hobble the win/loss column. The Celtics progressed through the playoffs without their best player, Kevin Garnett. Both Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady were not there to propel the Rockets to their best playoff run in recent memory. On the flip side of the coin: the 2007-08 Dwyane Wade-less Miami Heat won only 15 games compared to last season’s 43. With few second options, the Heat went cold without their MVP candidate superstar.

The Kings need talent – and coaching – to win more games and injuries play a role only just so much.

by betweentheeyes on Sep 5, 2009 7:19 AM PDT reply actions 6 recs

Well said bte

Kings need to get more talent, especially in the starting lineup. Right now we have 1, maybe 2 guys who would start for sure on good teams in our starting lineup alone. Now allowing k9 to expire with this years cap space and the Kings will have a nice chunk of change for 2010 (a tactic I don’t really approve of, since a lot of teams will have cap space). Our only other bargaining chip is to get rid of expirings like k9 for talent.

Father of the "Natt this!" movement and Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order.

by Aykis16 on Sep 5, 2009 7:57 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions

Rec'd

Very well said.

Never forget: I am a complete idiot

by Exhibit G on Sep 5, 2009 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions

Really thin

One of the Kings problems is we are so pathetically thin up front. If either Hawes or Thompson goes down we’re skrewed. And as long as ownership doesn’t (appear to want to) make a move to bolster the roster with size/experience we’ll be waiting for the injury bug to bite because…(wait for it)…injuries are part of the game. Talent level is the other issue. After you get past our starting 4 (I don’t count Beano as a starter) and first one or two off the bench we’re really thin. Time to package K-9 and somebody else and/or future 2nd round pick etc. and try to improve.

Purveyor of Bull Plop

by SayWhat? on Sep 5, 2009 8:13 AM PDT reply actions

It will only make a difference if the FO wants to win more than 17 games.

I can’t agree more with what you said. You only have to look at what happened last year when Hawes or JT got into foul trouble. We went small ball. But, we’re not quick enough to play with the really small quick teams, and our quickness wasn’t that big of an advantage against the big teams. So, we just lost.

Now, GP has a tendency of picking versatile players. And, this team has a few. But, at the 5 we are thin. JT is our backup center, but with no low post game. If Hawes goes out for any length of time, JT becomes our starting center and May at 6’ 9" with suspect knees becomes our backup center. Noc, Brockman & Thomas are 6’ 7" so I’m thinking Donte may end up being our backup PF.

If JT goes out for any length of time May becomes our backup center. We are 3 or 4 deep at the 1,2,3 & 4. So, we could afford one or even two players out and still put a team on the floor that isn’t a total embarrassment. But, if we lose JT or Spencer, we might as well save the jet fuel and forfeit the game.

I’ve stopped trying to guess what the Kings FO is thinking. Maybe, their willing to gamble that we can make it through the season or at least until the trade deadline without any major injuries. Maybe, they have something their working on that we don’t know. Or, maybe their planning to keep open a couple of roster spots, and backup the injuries with FA’s as the needs arise. But, I hope their not thinking that they can survive another 17 game win season.

"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom

by HighTops on Sep 5, 2009 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions

The secrets of the front office are mysterious at times

I can sometimes imagine Petrie in place of Don Adams on the old (much too long ago for you I am sure) Get Smart opening: a long hallway with various door opening and closing and that 60’s secret agent type Jazz theme in the background.

It is my belief from sifting through the tea leaves that the Kings FO is in spending- conservative mode. Not shut down mode mind you, but more of a post-Depresson frugality. As this team is being rebuilt, wins are not worth purchasing, and talent at a bargain not a premium. If the Kings produce any more than 17 wins – be it 21, 25 and no more money has been spent and “true” progress has been made – than the FO will be happy. Remember, there are too many other variables in play here: the Arena issue looms large. The fan base has scattered and support has diminished. The team may wish to be moved or be sold, so the less money invested, the better. As fans we worry about the product, the front office is worried about the company. The two perspectives don’t always align.

A question here could be not “How many (more) games will the Kings win?” but “what factors do you see preventing the Kings from winning more games this 2009-10 season?” To stay to point of the post: injuries perhaps, but it is a Lame excuse.

by betweentheeyes on Sep 5, 2009 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions

Yea, I can see GP & Levine talking under the Cone of Silence.

"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom

by HighTops on Sep 5, 2009 10:13 PM PDT up reply actions

Beno playing poorly benefits no one...

especially the Kings. I am no fan of his, but Beno playing well (well being a relative term) does a few major things: 1. it makes his egregious contract at least palatable to another team if/when the Kings try to trade him, 2. it gives the Kings some added depth, 3. it keeps the STR community from wanting to strangle Petrie for giving him the midlevel exception. Granted, this is not a great situation, but when all you have is lemons, you add some vodka to dull the pain…

by Mcamp49 on Sep 5, 2009 8:22 AM PDT reply actions

Now thats a sig worthy life gives you lemons quote

Father of the "Natt this!" movement and Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order.

by Aykis16 on Sep 5, 2009 10:10 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions

Good suggestion...

and particuarly relevant with this team. Done and done!

"Granted, this is not a great situation, but when all you have is lemons, you add some vodka to dull the pain..."

by Mcamp49 on Sep 5, 2009 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions

I can see one person it benefits...Evans.

I agree Beno playing good can be a good thing, but it also forces Beno to heavily split minutes with Evans, our PG of the future.

I remember K-9 getting a whole bunch of playing time, about 2 seasons ago, with Moore/Miller splitting minutes at Center and Hawes sitting on the bench, in a failed attempt to sell K-9 as still having some kind of value. The problem with Beno is he’s a hard sell. Nobody wanted to offer him a contract with the numbers he was putting up, except for eager GP. In order for Beno to live up to his contract, he’ll need to improve his game and a bigger amount of playing time, as well… which would only hinder Evans’ progress, or even make him think twice about Sacramento in negotiations, when he re-signs.

by CloudyEyes on Sep 5, 2009 8:22 PM PDT up reply actions

one person it doesn't benefit*

by CloudyEyes on Sep 5, 2009 9:06 PM PDT up reply actions

Injuries

This one is tricky simply because no amount of us arguing can really answer this question.

Injuries are a strange thing. Football Outsiders has done some interesting research regarding injuries in the NFL. They found that injuries tend to adhere to averages over time just like anything else. A team ravaged by injuries one season is likely to return to close the average the next season, and possibly be above average in terms of health. I can’t speculate how this could apply to the NBA (53-man rosters compared to 12-15), but I imagine that it would hold up somewhat. But an injury prone player makes a much bigger difference if he’s 1 starter out of 5 compared to 1 starter out of 22 (excluding NFL special teams).

I hope that Martin can remain healthy. I hope that a tenured coach like Westphal is able to handle injuries appropriately, such as not calling out a truly injured player as being “soft”, or setting an unrealistic time frame for a players return. I think he’ll handle such scenarios better than some of the previous ~~idiots~~ coaches. I also hope that JT and Spencer can stay healthy.

I’m hopeful for the season, but injuries are always that unknown. Injuries will happen, we just hope they aren’t serious, don’t cause tons of missed games, and don’t happen to key guys.

Never forget: I am a complete idiot

by Exhibit G on Sep 5, 2009 3:53 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs