30Q: Will the Kings' Relative Lack of Assists Matter?
by Tom Ziller on Sep 6, 2009 7:16 AM PDT
in Commentary
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Print30Q asks the important questions about the Kings all through September.
I didn't mean to have an in-depth, time-consuming 30Q on the Sunday of Labor Day weekend -- the one day in September few will be spending much time on the web. But Ailene Voisin made me do it.
Voisin penned a column for today's Bee on how the team needs to stay focused on ... Ricky Rubio over the next two years, because the Kings will need someone "to deliver the ball to" Tyreke Evans, Kevin and Spencer Hawes. She repeats the assertion that Evans is not a point guard, this time quoting Paul Silas. Voisin basically decrees that in two years, the Kings will have realized something she alreadys knows: Evans is a two-guard, a "point guard in an emergency only."
This is familiar territory for me, arguing that assists, in the end, mean little.
It's a subjective statistic subject to the whims of the scorekeeper, subject to the prowess of the players receiving the potential assists, and subject to more misunderstanding than any other box score digit. This is further complicated by the use of "assist-to-turnover ratio," which tells us nothing about a player's passing ability considering many turnovers occur in non-passing activities (traveling, offensive fouls, five-second violation, eight-second violation, double dribble, stolen dribbles, 24-second violations etc.).
There is no measurable relationship between assists and offensive performance. I graphed the assists per made field goal statistic and the offensive rating (points per 100 possessions) to show this. Assists per made field goal measures what percentage of a team's buckets come off an assist. Points per 100 possessions, or offensive rating, is a tempo-free measure of offensive quality. This graph shows the scatter plot for all 30 teams in the 2008-09 season.
As you can see, the relationship is not evident. The correlation coefficient is only 0.14, the variance in offensive rating explained by assist/made field goal rate only 2%. And this is not statistically significant at the 0.05 level. So basically, assist rates have no linear relationship with offensive quality. You can have the worst offense in the league (Clippers) but still finish top 10 in assist rate, or you can have the best offense in the league (Blazers) and be middle of the pack in assist rate. I mean, the point guards of the top four offenses of the last season were Steve Blake, Steve Nash, Derek Fisher and Mo Williams. All four are fine point guards in their own right, but only Nash would be considered your prototypical pass-first PG. And obviously, Nash's Suns excepted, the top offenses are top offenses more because of guys like Brandon Roy, Kobe Bryant and LeBron James.
I'm not arguing passing skills don't matter, or that Rubio wouldn't help Thompson, Omri Casspi and Donte Greene gets easy buckets. But Voisin and others who still beat the Ricky-over-Reke drum base their arguments on this assumption that Rubio's virtuoso passing skills would automatically and without question raise the games of his teammates while Reke's virtuoso scoring skills help only Reke. As if Reke's 20 points are less valuable than the 20 points Ricky creates for JT and Omri.
Further, in regards to "point guard in an emergency only," let me remind everyone about a cat named Derrick Rose, who at Memphis as a freshman had an individual assist rate of 30.4%, meaning that 30.4% of Rose's individual possessions ended with an assist. A year later, Evans, a freshman at Memphis, had an individual assist rate of 30.0%, despite not taking over as the point guard until Christmas. The Chicago Bulls have their point guard of the future, don't they?
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RU-BI-WHO?
Great stuff TZ. Nice to see data-based analysis instead of 100% anecdotal evidence.
by thekangarooster on Sep 6, 2009 8:16 AM PDT via mobile reply actions 1 recs
Crazy Kahn's got so much egg on his face at this point,
I don’t believe anyone can accurately predict what he’s going to do. He’s close to giving Ramon Sessions a 4 year contract – last I’d heard. I think the more secure he feels at PG, the more willing he might be to trade Rubio’s rights – who likely won’t even come over until 2010, if ever. Man, Kahn fucked this one up, didn’t he?
Everytime I listen to David Kahn
I wonder how the hell did he break free of the mental institution much less become an NBA GM.
BOOK IT!
I think Kahn did well with Sessions
4 years at 4 mill a year? That’s a steal.
Father of the "Natt this!" movement and Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order.
I agree
Now he’s usefull and tradable.
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
by lietothegirls on Sep 6, 2009 5:10 PM PDT up reply actions
So Voison can't get over the whole Rubio thing, eh?
Are Voison and Pookey the same person?
One thing your graphing doesn’t really measure is how great passing can make certain guys that much better. Bill Simmons talks about how great soccer players have a sort of telepathy with their teammates that allows them to put the ball where it needs to be. He also argues that great PGs, such as Nash, have this ability as well. And you can’t really argue that great passing can elevate somone’s game. We all loved watching those Brad Miller passes to a cutting Kevin Martin for easy buckets. It’s also how we ended up with one Mikki Moore who had a nice stat boost from playing with Jason Kidd. I’m sure Voison’s main point is more along the lines of “assists mean wins” although I don’t know for certain because I’m definitely not reading her crap on a Sunday morning. However, higher assist numbers can really help certain players.
www.mancancook.net
Pookey has and will continue to say horrible shit to me but I will never lump him, tie him, or claim he is the same as Voisin.
I agree, to a point
Ziller,
Great use of stats! I love it and have never thought to really run these sorts of stats. I am a researcher and run this sort of stuff all the time…
For all teams this is not significantly associated, but I am willing to bet that if you ran this same analysis and cross-tabulated assists with wins for the Kings alone it would be significant to well beyond .05.
The need for assists is not appropriate for all teams, but the Kings live and die by them. Sure there are many variables to consider. For example, a team that has a star doesn’t need them as their star can turn it on and score a ton of points.
Voison’s piece is just wrong headed. She may be thinking of Kings living and dying by assists, but why on earth wouldn’t she just focus on what this team needs NOW.
My favorite part about the Voison article
is that she apparently could not find a good source to back her story. She apparently got all the way to Paul Silas before she found someone who thought Reke, at this point in his career, may have a hard time setting up the offense.
...continued
I just wanted to also point out that at this point in his career, Reke has not even made it to training camp of his rookie year in the NBA. Talk about not getting a chance to prove yourself
Well said
“For example, a team that has a star doesn’t need them as their star can turn it on and score a ton of points.” My thoughts exactly. There are some teams out there with players that can create for themselves and don’t need a PG throwing them the ball. There are also teams that need good point guards that can distribute the ball well to create easy buckets for the rest of the team to increase their productivity. I think Amare or David West or whomever’s stats would significantly drop if their star point guard was removed. Mikki Moore would have never even been signed to this team, had it not been for Jason Kidd setting him up for easy buckets the season prior.
The Kings don't think Rubio is any good
Jerry Reynolds “Luke Ridnour” comment says it all. They’re not going to pursue Rubio. The only question is whether they were right.
More than not liking Rubio,
I think the kings are just admittedly unsure about his talent. Rubio was either unwilling or unable to come in and compete head-to-head with any of the other pointguards in the draft. I’m sure he was invited to all of the camps as well as most of the multi-player workouts and chose not to go. He was hoping that his good game against team USA in the olympics would be enough to earn him a free pass, but oviously it was not.
I think that comment by Reynolds was not a fair portrayal
Keep in mind that Rubio was sick the days prior, hadn’t been practicing in any prior workouts, was injured most of the regular season overseas, and then was judged based purely off 1 day of solo 1 on 1 workouts.
One more thing
Let’s just say that the Kings do really like Rubio. My assumption has been that they’d love to have him but weren’t willing to pass on Tyreke to get him. Is there any guarantee that Rubio would want to come to Sacramento anymore? Part of the reason he wanted to come here in the first place was the money he’d get at the 4th pick that would help him with paying the buyout clause. But we essentially spurned him for a different player. The only way he’d have to come is if here were already in the NBA (which is two years from now). If Minny traded his draft rights to us he could easily choose to stay in Spain. And by the team he’d come over, if he even did, we could already have John Wall.
www.mancancook.net
"the idiots should have just drafted him then"
would be the reactions to any team that passed him during draft night and now are looking to get his rights xD Wuh wuh wuh
Lets play the 2009 college season first
If I remember correctly O.J. Mayo and Brandon Jennings were the hot prospects coming out of H.S.
also one good assists leader does not mean wins
Otherwise Brevin Knight would be a champion.
In the kings best years, everyone could pass well, but nobody led the league in assists.
by Ice_9ine on Sep 6, 2009 10:19 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
Did I miss something?
Isn’t Sergio Rodriguez a King?
He’s a great pass first PG who didn’t fit with the Blazers and their give-Roy-the-ball mentality, but you’re going to fall in love with him in a few games.
Nobody expects a Spanish Acquisition!
Thanks for putting things straight Z.
Women should go to college and become doctors, lawyers, scientists, politicians etc. Most of the times they’ll be better than men… but please keep them out of sports.
Am I missing something?
And obviously, Nash’s Suns excepted, the top offenses are top offenses more because of guys like Brandon Roy, Kobe Bryant and LeBron James
I’m with you for most of the way. Then you write that line. What does that mean for the Kings? No worry, we don’t need a point guard who can pass because teams with players like Roy, Kobe, and LeBron won without one? And . . . ? How does that apply to the Kings? Are we saying Evans is in that class? If so, we are fricking amazing for being the only team in the first four picks to recognize that.
Let’s not kid ourselves. We are not going to be even a 50% winning team next year. We didn’t take ‘Reke because we already had an amazing offense and didn’t need a PG. We took him because we sucked at so many things that we really had to take the BPA. And because our defense was so pourous you [fill in your own joke here]
We are all clear on the fact (or should be) that we did not draft Evans because of his amazing “true” PG skills. We may or may not have a PG. Hopefully we have an extremely high-scoring back court and someone who can help our team improve it’s D. (It certainly couldn’t get much worse.) But can he play PG in the NBA? Can he guard other PGs and distribute the ball? I think so. I hope so. But the very fact that so many of you are drooling at the prospect of John Wall tells me most of you aren’t so sure either.
Not a huge Voisin fan either. But anyone who says that having a PG who lacks court vision and who averaged as many t/os as assists in college is not a reason for at least SOME concern is being as miopic as she is. Let’s hope that ‘Reke the Freak answers our PG need for years to come. But I think there is at least as good of a chance that next year we’re looking to trade either him of Speed because we have two great SGs.
"Shut up and Coach!"
Vfettke
You're misunderstanding, or I'm not being clear
I’m saying (and proving, you might say) there’s no relationship between point guard purity and team offensive success. This is an argument for saying that whether a point guard can average eight assists a game is completely overrated. This is an argument for saying you need talent, and a passing point guard doesn’t fix everything. Voisin implies that the Kings cannot win with Evans at point guard because he can’t pass, and this will be proven within two years. I’m saying that the fact that Evans won’t average eight assists a night is not that important, and that teams thrive with “impure” point guards.
Further, this:
No worry, we don’t need a point guard who can pass because teams with players like Roy, Kobe, and LeBron won without one? And . . . ? How does that apply to the Kings? Are we saying Evans is in that class? If so, we are fricking amazing for being the only team in the first four picks to recognize that.
Roy was the sixth pick in his (bad) draft. Kobe went 13th. If Evans becomes All-World after being picked 4th, it would not be unprecedented.
My argument would be
that it’s great to say you can win if your best players are not at the point. Roy, LeBron, Kobe. Or that if your best player is at the point and he is a great, “true” point guard. Nash. But do either of those prove that if, arguably, your best player is at point, but is not a true PG, you are okay? Chicago might be your best argument there. But look at AI, for example. Great player at point. Not a true point. Were his teams as great as the four you mention above?
I would suggest that teams with great offenses and not true point guards are almost always great despite their point guards not because of them. It’s like saying that a team who wins the Superbowl without a great passing QB proves that a great QB doesn’t have to be able to pass. If Evans proves unable to run this team as a point guard who can distribute and see the court well, I don’t believe he will stay at the point position for long.
And I would say that picking Roy sixth was an incerdible find. IF Evans ends up being that kind of player, it was a great pick regardless of what position he plays.
"Shut up and Coach!"
Vfettke
God that was a horrible trade.
Father of the "Natt this!" movement and Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order.
I'd much rather hope that
Evans puts up Rose-like numbers. I’d be dancing and singing if ‘Reke put up 19/6/6.5 Six and a half assists along with everything else he brings would make him a stud in my book. yeah, Rose had 5 t/os but that can usually be fixed. So instead of arguing that Evans doesn’t need to give us assists to be good, let’s hope he can follow in Rose’s footsteps.
"Shut up and Coach!"
Vfettke
agreed with one exception
please tell me his cousin didn’t take his SATs. I don’t know why that bothers me so, but it does.
by betweentheeyes on Sep 7, 2009 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions
+1
I think it’s because you really want to like and root for your players and it’s hard to like a guy who would do something like that—even if he can ball.
"Shut up and Coach!"
Vfettke
Voisin stating prevailing notion?
Voisin isn’t going much against the grain here. There is a lot of doubt whether Evans can be a fulltime point. I’m in that boat as well. I think Evans can pull off point guard plays. He can pass and execute a set when it’s called. He can drive and dump off, he can run the pick and roll well, he finds the open man when he’s stonewalled.
But his scoring instincts are so aggressive that if he’s given the ball possession responsibilities of a point I think he’ll hurt the rhythm and play of his teammates. He’s bound to go into spells where he takes four shots in a row without anyone else touching it and it’s going to affect his teammates. And on the flip side, if you’re dampening down his natural aggression and attack mentality, then I think he’ll end up playing worse.
With Martin being only an out-and-out two, not having the heft to be a three, Evans almost has to be a point, at least in the starting lineup. But leaving aside real world roster considerations, there is nothing wrong with Evans as two. He has the size and dynamic scoring ability for it. And as a two, his opportunistic passing would be adequate.
If PW succeeds in his stated desire to
run a more up tempo offense and get the team more easy buckets, there will be more assists. As for Tyreke, I’m going to wait until he’s started 40 games at the point before I start to draw conclusions about his ability to play that position.
Seriously, if the talking heads hadn’t made a big deal about this everyone would be wondering if we had the next Derrick Rose.
But because of a couple of “experts” everyone is super skeptical and ready to call the pick a failure. These “experts” are the same type of guys that were saying Orlando should have taken Okafor over Howard. They don’t alway know what they are talking about.
All we know is that Memphis was a hell of a lot better with ‘Reke at the point last season than they were with him at the 2 and he looked fine in Summer league. Let’s just wait and see what happens.
Ball movement ... is like jogging for most people: They do it occasionally, and it makes them happy. Then they go back to not doing it. - Henry Abbott
by Kfan in Korea on Sep 6, 2009 3:54 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Well said Kfan.
Couldn’t agree more.
Father of the "Natt this!" movement and Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order.
I think it's worth noting
that among those PGs on the four top offenses are all good shooters. Reke is not.
And on those teams which aren’t led by Nash, all have playmakers elsewhere. So a pass first PG might not be key to a powerful offense; but effective passing (maybe measured as assists or A/TO) in general might be.
Also, aren’t the questions “Will the Kings’ Relative Lack of Assists Matter?” and “Will Tyreke’s Relative Lack of Assists Matter?” two very different questions? Seems like only the latter was touched on here.
by DustyG on Sep 6, 2009 9:59 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
excellent point
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
by lietothegirls on Sep 8, 2009 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions
Assists numbers depend on your teammates finishing
As we saw in Summer League, if Reke had teammates who could bury wide open shots…
Sean May is not fat. It's widescreen distortion.
If Reke can flat out beat his man
The lack of assists are offset by the buckets.
Z, you did a very good job in your numbers and analysis.
An efficient offense
IMO, a team whose starters all have at least decent passing abilities are better than a team with only a pass-first pg whose teammates are bad at passing.
giggity giggity goo
Unfortunately,
We don’t have either.
The draft lottery has reinforced my belief that there are not enough bad words in the English language.
by LeaguePassAddict on Sep 7, 2009 8:48 AM PDT up reply actions
Why Voisin's article made little sense to me
1 – Tyreke Evans has not yet played a minute in the NBA. If this question is to be asked of Tyreke Evans, then I suppose that the Kings would join the ranks of every team that might have an unsettled point guard situation in two years. That could include (for example) Golden State, the L*kers, the Clippers and the Suns. That’s every team in the Pacific! Without going through the entire league, my bet is that at least half the league could be looking for a quality starting point guard in two years.
1A – And do you think that Minnesota just might be one of those teams? If Flynn pans out, Rubio may be on the market. But if he does not set the league on fire, the Wolves could be looking for a point guard. And don’t give me Ramon Sessions. He will be entering his 3rd of a 4 year deal (and MIlwaukee could still match), and while he is a good deal at the $4 million per price, he is not an elite NBA point guard.
2 – Why are we to believe that Rubio would be the answer? Really, do we know that this kid is going to be the next Jose Calderon as opposed to the next Beno Udrih? Why is the kid that we passed on the answer, while the kid we chose is not?
3 – Would you trade Tyreke Evans or Kevin Martin for Jose Calderon right now? Because I would not. And Calderon is what you would hope that Rubio becomes, a pass-first, playmaking point guard.
4 – If Evans becomes an effective playmaking point guard, this conversation is moot.
5 – If Evans develops into a Dwayne Wade or Brandon Roy type guard, this question could again be moot, as Evans would still handle a lot. Your “point guard” would be a guy that could handle a little, play defense, and stick the open jumper (Mo Williams, Derek Fisher…Beno Udrih, etc.).
6 – Why Ricky Rubio? Why not John Wall? Why not Tyshawn Taylor (Kansas)? Why not any of the current PG’s that will be free agents in two years (a 24 year old Mike Conley, for example).
Two years is a lifetime away. There are drafts and free agency between now and then. Maybe Ailene pumped the article out now because she is afraid that she or the Bee might not be here in two years (though I suppose the same thing could be said about any of us, including the KIngs). Attempting to assess the KIngs needs for the 2011-12 season at this time is a bit foolish, in my opinion.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
by section214 on Sep 7, 2009 8:47 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Your argument cuts both ways.
Tyreke Evans has not yet played a minute in the NBA.
You all are upset with Voisin for questioning the abilities of a guy who hasn’t played a single game in a Kings uni, and then come up with things like:
If Evans develops into a Dwayne Wade or Brandon Roy type guard
I will grant that he’s a #4 pick. I will grant that Petrie is, as a general rule, an outstanding judge of talent. But you can’t slam an article for doubting Evans’ abilities before the season starts while pinning such incredibly optimistic hopes on the kid at the same time.
At this point, nobody knows what we’ve got. Voisin thinks Tyreke will never be the Kings’ PG of the future. You all are comparing him to some of the best players in the game today.
The truth is probably somewhere in between. But at this point, nobody knows.
The draft lottery has reinforced my belief that there are not enough bad words in the English language.
by LeaguePassAddict on Sep 7, 2009 9:00 AM PDT up reply actions
I disagree with Voisin's article
because she is not willing to give Evans the benefit of the doubt, but thinks that Rubio is the solution, in spite of the fact that neither one has logged a minute in the NBA.
I’m not sure how my comments “cut both ways,” but Evans could:
1 – Become an NBA quality point guard, in which case Voisin’s article was a waste of time.
2 – Become an NBA quality two guard, in which case Kevin Martin becomes a tradeable commodity, and the question becomes do you want to wait another few years for a rookie PG to develop or do you go fishing in the free agent waters or use Martin to secure a PG?
3 – Evans washes out at both positions, at which point Rubio becomes only one of a several dozen players that might help your team.
If others enjoyed Voisin’s article, so be it. I found it to be a waste of time.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
I didn't enjoy her article
And I don’t think we need Rubio, even though I wanted us to draft him.
My only argument is that while Voisin is unwilling to give Evans the benefit of the doubt, it seems like nobody here is giving Evans ANY doubt.
People are saying that there are a number of teams that win without a true point guard, or at least not a great one. But the teams you’re talking about have Kobe, or LeBron, or D-Wade. Superstars. We don’t even have an all-star on our roster.
I’m all for giving Evans a shot. I want to see what he can do. I want to see what Westphal can create out of this mish-mash of raw talent we call the Kings. But I’ve grown a little weary of the justifications of why we drafted Evans rather than a true point guard, and heartily sick of the superstar comparisons you are all heaping on him.
He’s a rookie, and a young one at that. Touting what he did in one year of college ball, saying that if Petrie drafted him over Rubio he must me the second coming of Michael Jordan, all seems hyperbolic and unrealistic.
Your comments are, for the most part, balanced. But basing your arguments on the assumption that Evans has the same talent as Roy or Wade is premature at best.
I’m not writing him off before he plays a game. Don’t deify him before he plays a game. That’s all I’m saying.
The draft lottery has reinforced my belief that there are not enough bad words in the English language.
by LeaguePassAddict on Sep 7, 2009 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions
Fair enough
But I said “if,” not “when” when speaking of Evans initially, and I added that “washing out” could also happen in my following comments. I think that Evans will be a success, but I challenge you to find anywhere where I have stated that he is categorically the second coming of any player. Perhaps you lumped my comments in with those of others. That’s easy to do given the excitement that has surrounded Evans. But as I re-read my comments, I don’t find anything unfair or unbalanced about them. That said, you are certainly entitled to your opinion.
For Voisin to write an article that attempts to address the needs of this team in two years is laughable. To suggest that an unproven (at the NBA level) 20 year old (by 2011) point guard is the solution two years from now is ludicrous. To hypothesize that Tyreke Evans is or is not an NBA point guard without him playing a minute of NBA ball is preposterous, especially when at the same time she anoints Rubio as a true NBA point guard without the benefit of him playing one minute in the NBA, either.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
Section214,
Your posts were balanced and fair. You gave a good couple of reasons why Voisin’s piece is stupid and ill considered. I think that leaguepass was reacting more to other people’s excitement…
I think that you could both agree on the fact that Voisin’s logic doesn’t make any sense. I think the only reason she wrote it was because Petrie really doesn’t value pass first PGs and she knows that people will still be frustrated with him two years from now for it.
I agree with LPA here
no suprise.
Many here still believe Donte’ is the second coming, he may be, but he certainly hasn’t shown it on the court yet in my eyes.
I share many of Voisen’s doubts that Evans will be a PG. If he’s not he’ll have to become a ‘playmaker’ like Kobe, LaBron, Roy ect.. – or we will in fact be looking for another PG in the years to come.
The point about doubting Evans while having few doubts about Rubio (both unproven at anything in my book) has a lot of merit though.
Al that said, I’m looking forward to seeing what the kid can do.
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
by lietothegirls on Sep 8, 2009 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions
(1) Having a below par assist man at the point guard position doesn’t matter if you have an elite playmaking wing … someone who’s basically good enough to run the offense from the wing position (Roy, LeBron, Joe Johnson types) but there are only about 10 of those guys in the league and they’re very difficult to acquire, and the Kings do not possess one of them.
Until the Kings show that they can acquire that type of player next to Evans — if he is indeed poor at creating easy baskets for teammates, which I’m not convinced of at this stage — then it is a major concern for the team.
(2) Another route could be having excellent passing big man who can run your offense that way, like the Kings had with Vlade + Webber. But it’s difficult to find two bigs who are that good — not just good passers, but excellent passers — at passing the ball. Again, something the Kings do not possess and something that will be difficult to acquire.
(3) Or a non-PG centric offensive system like the Triangle.
I think having a low assist point guard — who’s passing talents are not balanced out elsewhere — are damaging to a team’s offensive rhythm + fluidity. Regularly those teams become more of a “your turn, my turn” offensive team.
Will that be an issue with Tyreke Evans? It’s too early to tell … but I think there’s definitely enough reason to be concerned about it becoming a major issue down the road.
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