Kevin Martin and "Gamble Steals"

On the eve of Martin's return to action, I wanted to address an issue that has caused me considerable angst and grief over the past few seasons - KMart's defense and, more particularly, his penchant for gambling on steals.

Part of my inspiration for this post comes from this discussion in True Hoop (11th bullet down), which in turn links to Hardwood Paroxysm here.  The topic is basically about how both O.J. Mayo and Chris Paul excel at the "non-gamble steal".  

The non-gamble steal, as you could probably guess, simply means staying in front of your man while swiping/pawing/poking at the ball to force the turnover.  It occurred to me that this is what KMart needs to focus on.   Unfortunately, Kevin seems to be a big fan of the "gamble steal"; i.e., leaving your man and cutting into passing lanes in an attempt to intercept and get an easy breakaway lay-up.  In just the four or five games he played to start the season, I witnessed him make several unsuccessful gamble steal attempts.  The typical consequence of KMart's failed bids for glory is a 5 on 4 offensive possession for the opponent, which can usually swing the ball and capitalize on our subpar help defense to get the bucket and/or foul.

Another version of KMart's free-wheelin' style of defense occurs when he is rotating on defense as the offense swings the ball around the horn, so to speak.  If he gets to his new cover and his man has already passed the ball on to the baseline corner, for instance, Kev will simply give up on the play, run past his man and try for a cherry pick opportunity on the other end.   I have a distinct recollection of this egregious conduct from a game earlier this season - I wish I could cite the precise instance but, trust me, it happened.  And it's happened more than once.  The result, of course, is the same: 5 on 4 offensive possession for the other team; the guy that Martin was supposed to be guarding cuts to the basket and gets the open feed.  No cherry pick points for Speed.

So, more often than not, KMart's gamble steal attempts are unsuccessful.  That doesn't necessarily mean, however, that he has to have a 100% success rate for the practice to have utility.  But what kind of success rate would be necessary to legitimize the risk?  As low as 20%, considering it'd be an easy bucket if he makes the steal?   As high as 50%, considering he puts the Kings' defense at a disadvantage every time he bails?  I'm leaning towards the latter.  Sadly, though, there's no way he's close to that kind of a success rate.

In any event, it's a hugely frustrating thing for me to watch, being the risk averse dude that I am.  The King's help defense is nowhere near good enough to support KMart's gamble steal attempts.  I hope that PW does not encourage it.  (Maybe it's coming from Thorpe?  Who knows.)     

It's definitely something I'll be keeping my eye on as Kevin makes his return...