Preview: Kings at Bobcats

A season record of 19-19 for .500, 16-4 the 3rd best home record in the NBA, and 7-1 in January, there is only one way to explain what’s happening in Charlotte, the magic that is Michael Jordan is starting to rub off. Really there is no other explanation because heaven knows it’s not because of Larry Brown or the addition of Tyson Chandler or Stephen Jackson.

One other explanation might be the experience on the Bobcats starting lineup whose average NBA career is 7.6 years. And, that means that they don’t make many mistakes. They commit less then 20 fouls per game and send their opponents to the FT line only 21 times a game on average. And, they limit turnovers, and had 11 or fewer turnovers in their last 8 games, with an average of just over 11 per game.

To add to the confusion about their record, is how they win while being the 28th team in PPG, 22nd in FG%, 22 in 3P%, and 20th in FT%. Well let me clear up the confusion, defensively they’re exceptional. They are 1st in PPG allowed, 7th in FG% allowed and 7th in 3P% allowed, which doesn’t offer much hope for a Kings team that’s slumping offensively.

 The Bobcats are 27th in rebounding, which is understandable since Chandler has been out with a foot injury since Dec. 22nd. So, their leading rebounders are Wallace 11.5rpg and Jackson 5.2rpg, and the Kings can look to win the battle of the boards. Also, Charlotte is ranked 17th in blocks with Wallace averaging 1.1 and Nazr Mohommed only averaging 0.8 per game. So, the Kings might have a little more luck scoring in the paint.

What doesn’t look good for the Kings is the success the Bobcats have had against Western Conference teams. Their last 3 wins have come against Phx, Sas, and Hou. They did it by winning the points in the paint by an average of 47-41, fast break pts by 17-5, and turnovers by 10-15, while the offensive rebound ended even 11-11.

But, records and stats not withstanding, teams win based on matchups. And, the Bobcats don’t have the kind of super quick PGs that have given the Kings fits. Nor do they have the size in the post that is going to overpower our bigs or to keep Tyreke from getting to the basket. On the other hand they do have Gerald Wallace, and that might be enough.

The Kings do their most damage in the paint and from outside the arc, and it will be critical that they eliminate the 16-23 ft low percentage jump shots and attack Charlotte from their strengths. I don’t believe that JT can defend Wallace, or keep him off the glass, but I do like JT on Nazr. So, I’d like to see PW, go with Donte and Noc at PF and JT at center with Omri finishing off the starting frontcourt. Felton & Jackson have good size but I like our chances with Tyreke & Martin, as long as Tyreke leaves the 3pt shooting to Kevin.

Diop has good size off the bench but Spencer has had much better luck with bigger and slower centers than the quicker and more athletic ones. And, Spencer and Beno seem to work the pick & roll better than any other duo on the Kings, so I think the bench makes a comeback this game. The Kings are going to need all of their 3pt shooters to be on their game and active, so I hope Noc is ready to see more PT.

It’s not going to take smoke & mirrors for the Kings who have one of the worst road records, to win on the road against a team with one of the best home records, but if PW could come up with a trick or two it wouldn’t be a bad idea. But, the Kings are probably going to have to shoot >50% from the field and 3pt range to win. If I were a betting man, which I’m not, since Mrs. Tops put out a contract on my last bookie, I’d have to put my money on the Bobcats.

I really thought the Kings would finish this road trip with at least a .500 record, but either the East has much better defensive teams than the West or the Kings hit a major shooting slump at the worst time. Now, it looks like if they don’t win this game, we might return 0-6. So, now is as good a time as any to turn things around.

Start by:
Value the ball. Stop putting it into the hands of our Bigs and expect them to suddenly become pure PG’s. We have enough guards, get the ball into their hands and let them make plays.

No More Uncontested Fast Breaks. Every time a Kings player shoots, someone needs to get back. When Spencer Hawes is the only player back defending the break, a guard or wing should be getting his rear chewed out.

Defensive lapses must stop. Know your defensive assignment. No more having 2,3or 4 players going to double the ball at the same time. And, know whether to switch or not on screens. No more leaving players open, because one player switched and the other didn’t so no one ends up guarding the screener.

Take the Open shot. An open shot is better than dribbling into a defensive wall and turning over the ball. If you want to dribble into the defense, do it in practice, our bigs could use the experience.

I don’t think the Kings come out with the energy they need to win this game, after the last 2 losses. And, without the hot shooting they had early in the season, their weaknesses are too much to overcome Charlotte’s tough defense. I’m going to have to go with the Bobcats on this one. Bobcats by 14, for some reverse Ziller mojo. Go Kings.