Preview: Kings at Hawks

What are the chances that the Kings can win in Atlanta? Well, the Hawks lead the Southeast Division and every team in that Division has beaten the Kings this season. So, when we took a look at this road trip and calculated out the wins & losses, this game definitely did not get counted in the win column.

Atlanta matches up very well against the Kings. Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford versus Kevin has to go to the Hawks, at least until Martin returns to pre injury form. Al Horford wins rebounding and scoring no matter whom we start at center. And, Josh Smith who leads in defensive categories like Steals & Blocks wins at PF. Yes, Horford and Smith are almost guaranteed double doubles, and you can pencil Johnson & Crawford in for 40-50pts. And, we all know about Mike Bibby. Bibby isn’t asked to be the scorer he was with Sac, but he handles the point and is deadly in crunch time especially from 3pt range where he leads the team, shooting 40% on 162 3PA’s. And, don’t forget Marvin Williams who is 5th in scoring and 3rd in rebounding on the Hawks.

While Tyreke looks to win the PG match up, don’t underestimate Bibby the wily veteran who can take some chances with a trio of shot blockers to back him up. And, block shots is exactly what they did in their 113-105 victory in Sacramento. Atlanta’s starting front line had 9 of the teams 10 blocks. And, with Bibby leading the team, they rank 1st in fewest turnovers, with only 12.1 per game. Which doesn’t look good for the Kings who seemingly dig themselves into a hole every game with their unforced turnovers, which has them ranked 27th worst in the league.

The Kings aren’t playing good basketball, and no, it has nothing to do with Martins’ return. There is too much confusion on defense, leading to open shots and easy dunks. And, based on Mario Ellie’s half time comments, the chemistry is breaking down, and players are pointing fingers instead of stepping up and taking responsibility to fix the problem. In his first game as a King, Hilton Armstrong highlighted one of the main problems with the Kings and their defense. Hilton could be heard pleading with his teammates to talk to him, as he was left out top defending a guard. There is no leader, no cooperation, nor any continuity on defense, and that has to change. Wow, I feel much better now.

Game Keys:

Playmaking and Turnovers:
    Beno & Tyreke must reduce turnovers, and initiate the offense. If they have to give up the dribble to a big, the big needs to pass back to a guard and stop trying to create their own shot. JT needs to be taking open 15 footers, and pounding the offensive boards. And, Spencer needs the ball in the paint in front of the rim. Don’t make either one of them have to dribble the ball to get off a shot. Maybe in a year, but not now.

Defense:
   On defense Tyreke & Martin have the size to switch whether it’s Bibby, Crawford, Johnson or Teague that’s on the floor for the Hawks. We’re going to have to double Horford down low where he has a 74% FG% but from where? If the help comes from the guards Johnson or Bibby could go off for 30, and Johnson might get 30 even if we don’t leave him. Williams has good range outside 10ft, but Smith doesn’t hit much that’s not inside the paint, therefore the help is going to have to come from Smith’s man.

Amick posted that Brockman & Donte are starting. I’m guessing JT & Jon play Smith & Horford, and Donte in on Williams so Greene can switch to help out on JJ. I’m guessing that around the basket JT is on Smith, but when Horford moves away JT and Jon will switch. Horford shoots a high percentage all over the court, but Smith mostly shots around the rim. Personally I like Donte defending Smith because of his length and athleticism, and I like his weak side shot blocking, for helping JT with Horford, but PW knows best.

Offense:
Limit the 3pt shooting; Our 3pt shooting is only .333 for January and Atlanta only makes about 6 per game. Yes, the extra point is a nice dividend, but when you really need a basket, take the high percentage 10-15 footer. But, if we must take a 3, please get the ball to Martin, Casspi or Beno.

 JT had (22pts/12rebs/5ast) & Martin had (29pts/11rebs) against the Hawks in November and will need similar numbers this game. In the last meeting, Evans missed three 3pt shots and had 4 shots blocked (3-Smith, 1-Horford). It was only the 2nd week of his NBA career, but if he can’t get inside, he needs to pass the ball because his 3pt shooting still sucks (25%). He has added the pull up 10ft jumper to his repertoire so hopefully the shot-blocking problem won’t repeat itself. But, by all means attack Horford, as long as someone seals off Smith who is the real shot-blocker on this team.

The Kings came out in a fog in their last game. If they repeat that this game, they’ll get killed so badly, that the story line will end up being used on an episode of CSI. If they can hold the turnovers down and win the offensive boards, they have a chance. Atlanta has lost 4 games this month in which they shot an average 40% FG% and 25% 3P%, so the Kings can win with plain old solid basketball. Our shooting must improve, and that means getting open shots and taking them. Unfortunately, I don’t see any of that happening, and expect the Kings to leave Atlanta 0-4 for the road trip. Boy, do I hope I’m wrong. Go Kings