Preview: Kings at Magic

``We’re too streaky and we’re not solid enough over the course of the game right now. We did play better than we have in a while, which I guess is good. But when you’ve played better and you still have a loss, that’s not a very good feeling.’’ Well, it sounds like Paul Westphal in his post game interview, but it’s not it’s the comments of Magic coach Stan Van Gundy after their 3rd loss on their West coast road trip. Unfortunately, their bad streak started after they left Sacramento. They did return home to beat Indiana, and now they await the arrival of the Kings. So, here’s hoping that they start a new cold streak.

Nothings much has changed for Orlando, they’re still basically Superman surrounded by a bunch of shooters. On the frontcourt Rashad Lewis has good size and can score, but Matt Barnes is the really threat with his athleticism and ability to rebound. Vince Carter was supposed to help but hasn’t, and Jameer Nelson is a capable PG, but his small stature should pose no difficultly for Tyreke.

In our last meeting, it actually was the reserves that gave us the most difficulty. Ryan Williams & Jason Williams along with Pietrus did the most damage. Up until the start of the 4th quarter the Kings played well and actually started the quarter with a 2 pt lead, only to be outscored 33-10 in the 4th. But, that was before the return of Kmart, so I doubt that we’ll see another 10pt quarter.

There are 2 things you can be certain about when you play Orlando, they’re going to put up a lot of 3pt shots (30 or more is most likely), and Howard and Barnes will get a ton of rebounds. Howard doesn’t shot FT’s well except against us, and Gortat is even worse. And, Howard doesn’t shot outside of 10ft from the rim. If he gets good position, you must front him, and if he still gets the ball, use both hands to foul him. If you can keep him away from the rim, he has almost no offense.

Orlando and Sac are pretty close offensively, but with Howard in the middle, the Magic rebounds better +2 per game, blocks more shots +2.8 more a game, and allows 7.6 fewer points per game. Which is why Orlando is 15-4 at home. Their record for January is 4-7, but 8 of those games were on the road and they won 2 of their 3 home games. So, they’re still more than capable of defending the home court, no matter what their record.

Martin & Evans are starting to jell for the Kings and scored a combined 47pts in the Atlanta game. Jon Brockman had a somewhat breakout game against the Magic in our last game with 9pts & 6 rbs in 12.5 minutes. So, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him start his 2nd game in a row at center. And, even though Omri had 11pts/11rbs/5asts against Orlando, I like Donte at SF. His height and athleticism could give Barnes trouble and keep him off the boards.

But, like the last game the reserves just might decide the outcome of the game. With Beno, Hawes & Omri coming off the bench, we could have a true advantage. But, it’s going to take an error free game both from our starters and reserves. Orlando is probably going to win the rebound battle unless Donte can contain Barnes, so we must not turn over the ball. We aren’t shooting at a high percentage right now and can’t afford to give the Magic extra possessions.

Game Keys:

Dwight is going to get his rebounds, so we must limit Barnes & Pietrus who combined for 17 last game.

Brockman was the only big that had any success last game. If he gets the start, he’s going to have to use every bit of his strength to keep Howard away from the rim where he shots 72%. If you can make him make 5-10 ft jump shots, you’ll take him completely out of the game. If you can’t Foul, Foul, Foul.

Tyreke had 3 shots blocked in the last game, and ended up with 18pts on 5-16 shooting. We can’t win with that type of shooting. If you can’t get to the rim without getting blocked, then pull up for the 10-15 ft jumper. But, please no more 3pt shots unless absolutely necessary.

Orlando shoots a lot of 3pt shoots, but they can miss a lot also, so there is no need to get into a 3pt-shooting contest. We need to shoot high percentage open shots, get the lead and put the pressure on them to make a bunch of 3 pointers to catch up. Besides our 3pt shooting has only been marginal lately.

The Kings do a lot of standing around. We get a lot of passes picked off because the passer picks up his dribble and the player he’s trying to pass to is standing still. We also have too many traveling calls, after the player receives the ball standing in one place instead of catching the ball on the move. We need more open shots and more open players to pass to, and that comes from moving around and creating space between yourself and the man guarding you. Just because you’re on the weak side of the court, doesn’t mean your out of the play and can go stand in the corner. PW, Please I’m begging you, run some guys off of screens away from the ball, and how about setting a couple picks for our bigs in the low post.

To win the Kings will have to play a near perfect game, which is something we haven’t seen in a long time. If we can’t take Howard out of his game, even perfect might not be enough. We have some offensive talent, but that alone won’t be enough. The defense needs to start showing its ugly head. When we go to double, we must rotate from the weak side to cover the doublers man. If we don’t they’re just going to feed the ball back to the open man, for an easy 3pt shot.

I actually think the Kings show up for all 4 quarters this game. And hopefully, Orlando doesn’t take us seriously after their 21pt victory in Sacramento, and we get off to a good 1st half start. I like the Magic for the win, but I think it will be a tight contest so maybe there’s a chance. Go Kings.