Preview: Kings at Heat

Being a Kings fan is like being married to Sybil. From one day to the next you never know who’s going to show up for dinner. Will we shot well but turnover the ball like a hot potato, will we sink every improbable fade away jumper and forget how to play defense, will we score 66 pts in the first half but forget what the ball is for in the second half, and will we ever do all the right things in the same game? I’m going to guess that it’s the meek timid and tired Sybil that shows up for the Miami game.

Well Miami might have married Sybil’s twin sister, because after their last 2 wins, Miami has had a horrible shooting game. After a win against Houston where they scored 115, they only scored 80 against OKC. Then they went on to beat Indiana scoring 113, and followed that up with a loss to the Cat’s where they only scored 65 points. If history repeats itself the Kings could be in for an easy victory, because Miami scored 112 against Washington yesterday.

Whatever Miami team shows up you can be sure that D. Wade will be there big offensive weapon. And, right behind him will be M. Beasley. The Heat rebound by committee, lead by O’Neil, Haslem, Anthony and Beasley. Offensively they’re only 23rd in PPG, 18th in FG%, and 24th in 3p%, but they’re 3rd in fewest turnovers. Although if the Kings play like the Orlando game, Miami could be last in offense and it wouldn’t matter.

Defensively, Miami is ok and ranked 9th in Blks, 16th in steals, but only 23rd in rebounds.
The funny thing about the Heat is that the blocks and steals are more likely to come from Wade and Chambers than from O’Neil and Beasley. And when they come they come in bunches. Miami had 7 blocks and 15 steals against OKC, and followed that up with 10 blocks against Houston.

We saw the Kings do a lot of good things in Orlando (just call me Mr. Positive). We only had 14 turnovers, and were only out rebounded by 3 (51-48), but had 8 more offensive rebounds leading to 19 more FGA’s. And we got to the FT line 27 times, by being active and attacking the basket. We also saw more movement, which lead to 17 assists on only 31 made baskets.

Brockman did a yeoman’s job on Howard who still went for 19pts/16rbs in 26 minutes of play. But, J.O. is only averaging 12/8 and although Brockman is contributing on the defensive side, we might need a little more offense this time around. I also don’t like JT on Beasley, who’s their 2nd best scorer and 3rd best rebounder. So, I would start JT at center and Donte at PF, and I would have to start Ime at SF. Noc is just too shot happy and really out of sink, and I like Omri off the bench. Miami likes to go with Chalmers and 4 forwards, when O’Neil and Wade sit. So, Omri & Noc will probably be needed when that lineup hits the floor. And, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if PW put Hilton on Anthony when he comes in to relieve O’Neil. Or, he could go big with Hawes, Brockman, Noc, Omri, and Beno. It’s hard to guess what the lineup de jour will be.

What we do know is that Rafer Alston is Robin to Wades Batman. Rafer is more of a sidekick than a real crime fighter, but neither one of them is able to hit from distance. Although it hasn’t stopped them from trying, they’re 79 of 244 for 30% from 3pt range. Actually, none of the backcourt is much of a threat with Chalmers hitting 40 for 117 or 34%. The only player worth worry about from long distance is Richardson who takes almost 4.5 threes per game and shoot over 40%.

Game Keys

I’m not going to even talk about shooting, Our low score for the week was 84 and Miami’s was 65, so Ha Ha we win.

The Kings should dominate the boards for a change. But, we must seal out Beasley and Haslem, they are the main players to worry about. And, be ready for the long rebounds off of 3pt misses, there could be a lot of them.

This is our last chance for a win on this trip, and the Heat are only 2-2 at home in January and 12-10 for the season. So, pump yourself up and do whatever you need to do to get your energy up for this game. REPEAT THIS: Yesterday never happened, Yesterday….

O’Neil is not a shot blocker, but Wade is and he’ll pick your pocket if your not careful. So, Tyreke should have more luck getting to the rim, but Wade will probably want to guard Evans, so be careful.

I liked the motion in the last game. Martin cutting off of screens and into the lane to receive the pass and either put up a midrange jumper, or pass underneath if help came. We need more of that, much more. And, I still want to see Brockman or Tyreke backscreen JT’s man, so JT can receive the ball and cut down the lane for a dunk. In fact I think every player should set at least one screen each possession just to make it tough on the defense. I might ever relieve some of the frustrations from this road trip.

This is a winnable game. Wade is going to get his, but we must stop Beasley or Haslem, but preferably both. Protect the ball like it was your whip. I think the Kings can score over 100pts against Miami, and hold them to their average of 97pts. So, I’m picking the Kings to win by 3. I told you to call me Mr. Positive. Go Kings