Preview: Warriors at Kings

Don’t expect to see the same old Warriors. Golden State has made a lot of changes since we last played them. Injuries and new acquisitions have changed the face of that team. Corey Maggette and his 3-year $31M contract, isn’t the pariah he once was. And, the Warriors might not have to throw in Anthony Randolph to move him. In fact, Nelson has actually gone away from the small ball game he played earlier in the year and is now playing a more traditional lineup centered around Maggette, and it’s working.

Because of injuries, GS has been giving 2 exemptions from the league and now has 17 players on the roster. The 2 additions are from the D-League and are making impressive contribution. The first is Anthony Tolliver, a 6’9" 240lb PF, who was ranked 8th in scoring and 3rd in rebounding in the D-League. The second is Cartier Martin a 6’7" 220lb SG out of Kansas State. The addition of Tolliver has allowed Maggette to play at the SF position, where his numbers have been outstanding. And, Martin who just signed his second 10-day contract, added additional scoring off the bench, but has now been moved to the starting spot since the injury to Ellis.

And, you can’t talk about the Warriors without bring up Stephen Curry who over the last 10 games, has averaged 20pt/4.6rb/4.8ast, while shooting 48% field and 51% from 3pt range. The combination of Maggette/Ellis/Curry combined for 83pts against Cle, and 94pts against the Bulls. Biedrins hasn’t lost anything since the switch away from small ball, and is still a solid rebounder & shot blocker. And the addition of Tolliver, who has had 2 double doubles since he moved into the starting PF spot 2 games ago, makes GS a far better rebounding team. In Nov. & Dec. GS averaged 8.5 orb’s, 28.7 drb’s, but in Jan. they are averaging 10.1 orb’s and 30.8 drb’s. In fact most of their number are up in January. Scoring is up to 108.4ppg, FG% is down slightly to 46.1%, but 3P% is up to 37.1%.

Golden State has had the luxury of playing 7 games at home, starting with their January 8th victory over the Kings. They lost games to Cle, Mia, Mil, & Den, while beating the Kings, Bulls, & Nets, before going to Phoenix on Saturday, where they lost 112-103. But, unlike the Kings who have had trouble scoring, the Warriors have averaged 109ppg in those last 8 games. So, say what you will about Don Nelson, he knows how to coach offense, even with the team in transition from one style to another.

Because of PW’s propensity to vary the starting line up and alter defensive assignments, it’s been hard to analysis match ups in my past posts. With GS’s injuries, it’s now even harder, because their line-ups are changing also. Biedrins is back and Turiaf is back on the bench. Randolph is out and being replaced by the D-Leaguer Tolliver, and if Ellis’ ankle isn’t recovered a 2nd D-leaguer may be starting at SG. So, I’ll limit this comment to general thoughts.

Even though we’re back home from a long road trip, it might not seem like a home game because of the large contingent of GS fans that show up to these games. The young guys might be on their own when it comes to pumping up their energy.
Golden State is doing a great job of limiting turnovers lately and they have improved their offensive rebounding while shooting at a high percentage, currently 7th in the NBA.
The Kings on the other hand have only 2 players with an assist to turnover ratio over 2 to 1, Beno at 2.4 to 1 and Sergio at 2.2 to one. Tyreke and Martin are a combined 1.7 to 1. And, I don’t think anyone wants to be reminded about our recent shooting percentages.

The fact is the Kings are only 1.5 games ahead of GS in the standings, and if we don’t win, we could find ourselves in 2nd to last place in the West before our road game at Utah on Friday. The Kings could even find themselves in the bottom 3 in the league by the weekend.

If Monta Ellis can’t play because of his ankle injury, the Kings will only have to deal with two 30pt scorers instead of three. But, whether it’s 2 or 3, the Kings must find a way to play defense. I have to believe that Donte will be asked to again defend the other teams best player, Maggette. If Ellis does play I’m not sure that Tyreke & Kmart can cover him and Curry. With Ellis out Kmart is on the D-Leaguer Cartier Martin, and the match up of the game probably is Tyreke on Curry. And, the way Curry is shooting he needs to be guarded so closely everywhere on the court that we might see all 3 of our PG’s getting major minutes.

With Ellis out, JT & Kmart play against 2 players who were in the D-League only a couple of weeks ago, so I expect them to step up their games if they have any pride at all. So, without Ellis, the Kings win, and with Ellis it’s 50/50. Go Kings.