Preview: Bobcats at Kings

As good as Charlotte has been at home 18-5, they have been equally as bad on the road 5-17. But for January they’re 11-4, going 7-1 at home, and 4 of their 5-road victories came this month. They’re .470 FG%, .412 3P%, and .771 FT%, and are averaging a season high 102.2ppg, 21.3apg, and 5.4bpg although their rebounds are the lowest this season. Probably the only thing good about playing the Bobcats right now is, that they will be on the 2nd game of their 3rd back to back in the last 9 days

In the January 18th 2pt lose to the Cats, the Kings actually outscored Charlotte from the field by 6pts, even though we only shot 7 of 27 from 3pt range for 25.9%. But, this was one of those games that ended up being decided at the FT line where Sacramento was outscored by 8. The Kings only made 14-21 FT’s while the Cats got to the line 33 times on 25 fouls, 10 of which were on JT and JB who had 5 each.

It was quite a different game for Jason and Jon. Jason’s 5 fouls limited his playing time to only 16 minutes in which he only produced 6pts and 4 rebs. Jon on the other had had a breakout game on the boards, pulling down 14 in a little over 30 minutes but had no points. Unfortunately, Jon’s 7 offensive boards only lead to 3pts.

For the Bobcats, Wallace had 28/5 with almost half his points coming from the FT line on 13-15. Raymond Felton had the most remarkable game, with 17/10/9 and just missing a triple double by 1 rebound. Charlotte is very aggressive offensively and likes to attack inside. They were 27 of 55 inside of 10ft in our last game, and on their remaining 27 shots from 16ft range out past the 3pt line they shot around 50%. This aggression gets them to the FT line on an average of 27 times a game,

The Kings on the other hand have lost all 9-road games and 3 of their 5 home games in January (2-12). They barely got past GS, and lost to Utah who was without their 2 all-stars. In our last game against Charlotte, Westphal played every player suited up except Sergio, even Hilton got 10 minutes. And, in yesterday’s game in Utah, PW again played everyone except Sergio, with May subbing in for Hilton. So, it seems that PW isn’t ready to commit to a regular rotation even though we’re more than half way through the season.

Based on past experience I can only guess who’s starting and who will match up with whom defensively. Spencer’s performance dictates that he starts against Nazr, let’s hope he gets more than the 11 minutes he got against Charlotte in the last game. Felton & Jackson start in the backcourt for the Cats, and Martin & Evans return for the Kings. But, Felton won’t come close to a triple double this time, and Jackson who has been averaging 24ppg, will have more than 11pts this game. Martin will have a problem stopping Jackson, so I’m guessing PW has Evans & Martin switch defensive assignments. Does JT start and who covers Wallace? Best guess JT & Omri start, and no one is able to cover Wallace. Maybe Donte, when JT gets into foul trouble.

Even with Martin & Evans combining for 58pts/8rbs/9asts and 4 steals, the Kings still weren’t able to beat the undermanned Jazz. The offense is slow and vanilla. For every kick out, off of penetration that leads to an open long jumper, there’s one that leads to a turnover. JT & Omri have fallen on hard times. But, by far the worst part of the Kings play right now is the defense. We’re getting beat on simple PG picks, and players coming off of screens straight down the lane for uncontested lay-ups and dunks.

Game Keys

The Speed/Reke backcourt does well again, but Charlotte is ranked #1 in fewest points allowed so less the 55pts.

The Kings win the battle of the boards, but if we don’t get some 2nd chance points off of the offensive rebounds it will mean anything as far as the outcome of the game.

The Bobcats are going to go to the FT line 30+ times. The Kings need to be aggressive. That means Tyreke and Kevin need to attack the rim, and limit the long-range jumpers. Lot’s of screens and hard cuts off the picks straight to the basket.

Charlotte is just playing too well, and the Kings aren’t. Too many players on the Kings aren’t hitting their outside shots (38% from 16-23ft range), and the defense has actually gotten worse since the return of Kevin. And, I doubt that the back-to-back road games will be any burden at all for Charlotte. I’ve got to go with Charlotte by 7 with the Kings failing to reach 100. But, it’s time to stop worrying about Wins & Losses and start working on eliminating mistakes. Go Kings.