Creationism: Which Kings Need Help Getting Shots Off?
Shot creation is a huge, huge controversy in advanced basketball analysis circles. Many are certain there's a definite value to a player who creates many shots, in part because it's quite obvious not all players can create many shots. Others, led by Dave Berri, find shot creation to be overrated. The truth is likely somewhere in the middle (though I'd suggest the pro-creation crowd has already moved to the middle; John Hollinger might be the APBRmetrician who gives the most benefit of the doubt to the creator, and most other metrics seem to move closer to the middle than PER).
I'm of the mind that it matters. You can't have a team of three Fred Hoibergs in the backcourt and run an efficient offense, despite Hoiberg's amazing personal efficiency numbers. This really affects two types of players: catch-and-shoot wings/guards and finishing big men. (These days, you can have catch-and-shoot big men and finishing wings, but you get the point.) Take Peja Stojakovic, for example. With Bibby, Vlade and Webber setting him up, he could ace the scoresheet efficiently. When it just Bibby, or just Brad Miller, it didn't work out so well. When it was Chris Paul, it worked out again! I'm simplifying things for the sake of clarity, but that's essentially the core of it. Players who don't create their own shot well rely on teammates who do create shots for themselves and others.
Shot creation for others is pretty easy to figure out -- it's called an assist, and it's been in the box score since, well, Creation. Shot creation for self is also easy -- it's called a field goal attempt or a pair of free throw attempts. Of course, it's not quite that simple on either account. There's the whole matter of assist totals only representing successfully created shots; if Tyreke Evans sends a kick-out to [NAME OMITTED] for a wide-open three and [NAME OMITTED] misses, that's no assist and it disappears from record. In individual shot creation, FGAs/FTAs are imperfect because they include assisted shots.
So it's not quite that simple. But there's some data out there.
No one is compiling potential assists yet (publicly), but there's a general understanding that raw assist numbers in most cases fairly accurately represent potential assist numbers. In other words, it's unlikely a guard who averages two assists a game and a guard who averages eight assists a game both have 12 potential assists a game. If a player doesn't get many assists, he probably doesn't have many potential assists. If a player tallies many assists, his potential assist number is probably representatively high. If there are exceptions, they are few.
82games.com has made one key figure available for a long time that helps with shot creation assessment: percentage of FGMs assisted.
An example from Tuesday's Clippers game: Omri Casspi shot 7-11. Of those seven makes, six were assisted. So about 86% of Omri's field goals were assisted.
We don't have data on DeMarcus Cousins and Pooh Jeter, so let's look at last season's assisted make percentage for the other rotation Kings.
| Player | Ast%: Jumpers | Ast%: Inside | Total Ast% |
| Evans | 15% | 24% | 21% |
| Udrih | 42% | 39% | 41% |
| Landry | 58% | 53% | 56% |
| Thompson | 78% | 56% | 66% |
| Greene | 71% | 61% | 67% |
| Casspi | 72% | 57% | 65% |
| Garcia | 91% | 50% | 79% |
| Dalembert | 56% | 70% | 66% |
In Evans and Francisco Garcia, we have two extremes: Tyreke creates his own shot 80 percent of the time, and El Flaco relies on someone else to do so 80 percent of the time. (Note that previous season show Garcia's numbers closer to those of Greene and Casspi, so grain of salt, please.)
Of particular note is that Jason Thompson and Samuel Dalembert need more help with shot creation than does Carl Landry ... yet Landry is lined up to play primarily with two of the three Kings who can regularly create shots for others (Evans, Beno Udrih, Jeter). I have a feeling Cousins will come in around Landry when all is said and done; it's worth remembering, though, that Landry could do well in a low-playmaker line-up, whereas it seems unlikely Thompson could.
In my mind, this is just one of the myriad factors that goes into rotation-setting and roster-shaping. If Jeter is as good as we think he might be, there shouldn't be problems. But if he isn't, and the bench crew needs some help getting their shots off, we might see Beno moved out of the starting five to help with that in short order.
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This article is intelligently designed.
A real evolution in thinking about the natural selection of shots.
Rocks are free, and slingshots easily stolen. And for a limited time, every third person who follows me on Twitter (andy_sims) gets a free ice cream cone.
Which I will eat.
by andy sims on Oct 22, 2010 6:38 AM PDT reply actions 3 recs
Ah yes
I disagree with Coach Westphal in that I believe Casspi would be the right wing choice to play alongside Evans. However, if Casspi and Greene both go down, I don’t know who’d be left. Wing players are awesome.
Also, do you think Top Hat drinks tea? Party goer, that he is, I bet he does—quite liberally.
I disagree
True, it is a wonderful article. But, it’s existence shows Ziller’s creation of it was designed from the the beginning. He was gifted with certain abilities that provide us with what was just read.
"......but Curry had a better TS%"
by kwill on Oct 22, 2010 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Great article
I like to give the organization the benefit of the doubt when it comes to advanced stats, but I’d feel a lot more comfortable if we knew there was at least one person on the staff devoted to advanced statistical analysis.
Never forget, I'm an idiot.
Why pay someone to do advanced stats when you can just go to sactownroyalty.com?
Just kidding folks. I’d feel better with a dedicated Statistics Analyst on the team too, even if he/she were part-time.
This makes me think on Donte'
His first year he would jack up shots off the dribble. Feet not set. Just awful. Then last year he started shooting with more assists so that he was spotted up and ready to shoot. Much better foot positioning and all the way around shooting. Seems like he, towards the end of the season, could finally get his feet set and shoot off the dribble.
I didn't major in Common F-cking Sense, but ...
Nice article,
However, I was expecting something akin to Genesis. On the 6th day Omri created the corner three and there was much rejoicing.
There now I've met the 75 word count. -pookeyguru
by moproblemz on Oct 22, 2010 6:58 AM PDT reply actions 4 recs
hahaha I believe you mean “and it was good”.
"We're not talking about me and Darko in the same sentence." - Chris Webber vs KAHN!
by caseycheesecake on Oct 22, 2010 7:48 AM PDT up reply actions
[Python reference]
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
by lietothegirls on Oct 22, 2010 9:25 AM PDT up reply actions
Considering Landry
How many of Landry’s non-assisted shots were put backs off the offensive glass?
I ask b/c players who shoot unassisted off of rebounds may need a teammate on the floor to create the shot that resulted in a miss/rebound in the first place.
Please don't simply ignore the stats when making your case, 'cause "...your eyes lie to you sometimes..."
Stats Education::
Advanced Stats 101 @ MBN | Basketball Reference | Basketball Prospectus | 82games
not sure if I get the logic
I personally would actually prefer it if Landry played with more guys who made their shots
I predict JT will never breathe through his nose.
by wallywagon11 on Oct 22, 2010 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions
Ziller posited that Landry seemed more able to create his shot than Dalembert or Thompson
I’m simply asking if shots off of offensive rebounds has been considered in the “shot creation” (i.e. unassisted FGAs) calculus.
But @MustangMBS is probably right, with Landry having a single-digit ORB%, it probably doesn’t make a difference in his case.
I am NOT suggesting that Landry needs to play with players who miss on purpose. Come on now.
Please don't simply ignore the stats when making your case, 'cause "...your eyes lie to you sometimes..."
Stats Education::
Advanced Stats 101 @ MBN | Basketball Reference | Basketball Prospectus | 82games
by magicfaninTN on Oct 22, 2010 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions
never said you suggested that Landry needs to play with players who miss on purpose.
But you did say that players who shoot unassisted off of rebounds may need a teammate on the floor to create the shot that resulted in a miss/rebound in the first place. So essentially you were saying Landry may need a teammate on the floor to create the shot that results in a miss where Landry can rebound it. Not necessarily on purpose mind you but still missing the shot. I personally don’t understand the logic there, that’s all.
I predict JT will never breathe through his nose.
by wallywagon11 on Oct 22, 2010 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions
Let me try again.
(unless you are being purposefully pedantic)
Ziller says:
82games.com has made one key figure available for a long time that helps with shot creation assessment: percentage of FGMs assisted.
from which he draws the conclusion that a lower assisted FGM percentage may indicate that a player can create his own shot.
I’m asking if this stat ought to be adjusted for FGMs that come from offensive rebounds; in order to get a better sense of whether or not a player is a shot creator.
Because there is a difference between getting a FGM off a rebound and getting a FGM off a layup or dunk inside. Both show up statistically as unassisted FGM. But, only one is indicative of being a shot creator in the flow of an offense.
If Landry (or anyone else for that matter) is shown to be getting a significant number of FGMs from put backs, then that player is not what we’d consider a “shot creator.” As such, that player would need another “shot creator” on the floor at the same time despite what the unassisted FGM% shows.
Please don't simply ignore the stats when making your case, 'cause "...your eyes lie to you sometimes..."
Stats Education::
Advanced Stats 101 @ MBN | Basketball Reference | Basketball Prospectus | 82games
by magicfaninTN on Oct 22, 2010 2:29 PM PDT up reply actions
Seems like
that adjustment might apply to JT more than Landry if it’s enough to matter.
Childress then flew to Greece and asked the team if they would pay him in gold bars, hookiers, weed, and marijuana. The rest is history.
by TheFifthMookie on Oct 22, 2010 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions
Maybe I am being a bit pedantic, but not purposefully
I was just being a smartass and crack a joke with my 10:58 AM PDT comment (c’mon, technically I would rather my team make every shot … obviously won’t ever happen but just a joke) and in my 12:53 PM PDT comment I was just clarifying that I did not think you suggested in your 9:43 AM PDT comment that Landry needs to play with players who miss on purpose, and just explaining my logic in my 10:58 AM PDT comment (which was obviously made before your 12:27 PM PDT comment so please note in my 12:53 PM PDT comment I was not talking about your 12:27 PM PDT comment and I was only discussing my joke in reference to your 9:43 AM PDT comment).
Alright now I am being purposefully pedantic but the truth is I do understand what you meant and I sincerely only meant to crack a joke.
I predict JT will never breathe through his nose.
by wallywagon11 on Oct 22, 2010 2:47 PM PDT up reply actions
Just to offer a perspective
that I think is more pertinent to the above table:
Carl has the ability to catch the ball in the post, pivot, face up a defender and make a scoring move. He also has the ability to catch in the post, back in a defender, turn and score. These are two of his primary moves, and in both cases assists are not rewarded. JT and Sammy D do not possess as polished of high/low post game. So the above table comes as no surprise.
JT probably gets more put backs than Carl, and he would get even more if he had a soft touch. but he rushes his moves under the basket, lacks a pump fake, and just struggles in general to establish anything. This preseason for him is yet further proof.
I predict JT puts up 7/5 this year.
Great topic.
I remember several threads last season about what Rekes assist numbers would be like if he had more efficient scorers on the team . Reke had alot of (un-realized ?) assists last season. I might just make it a personal project to count all of his attempted assists this year.
everyone has a lot of "un-realized" assists in the league.
Tyreke is nothing special. Considering nobody ever shoots 100% it’s going to happen.
I predict JT will never breathe through his nose.
by wallywagon11 on Oct 22, 2010 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions
actually Tyreke is very special
just not in the “un-realized” assists department
I predict JT will never breathe through his nose.
by wallywagon11 on Oct 22, 2010 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Actually...
There were a number of games later in last season where he was driving and kicking it out lot, but it seemed like none of his teammates could hit AT ALL. I clearly remember what 9KINGS6 is talking about. He would end up with 7 assists and could have easily had over 10.
I didn't major in Common F-cking Sense, but ...
Well considering 40% from deep is a pretty good percentage
There are going to be times when it flat out does not result in points when you kick it back out. It happens to every team. Nothing special going on here.
I predict JT will never breathe through his nose.
by wallywagon11 on Oct 22, 2010 12:56 PM PDT up reply actions
I guess you weren't part of those threads that 9KINGS6 was referring since it clearly isn't connecting with you.
I didn't major in Common F-cking Sense, but ...
I would take what was said in those threads with a grain of salt.
Sorry but what happened to Reke last year was nothing special. Considering most of the time he drives with no pick and roll and kicks the ball back out you are going to see a large percentage of his assists come from passing it back outside for jump shots. Those are not terribly high percentage shots. It isn’t very shocking to hear that there are times where it looks like he should have had more assists and that is before we even talk about a cold streak. Just because a three is a good shot to make for one’s true shooting percentage, it does not help somehow bump up a player’s assist numbers. You get one assist per three or long two or easy layup made.
3’s and long 2’s go in at a much lower rate. Reke does not get many assists by passing it into the block. Instead, most of his assists are from kick outs for long 2’s and 3’s. Thus more likely to see more missed shots.
I predict JT will never breathe through his nose.
by wallywagon11 on Oct 22, 2010 2:27 PM PDT up reply actions
Yes
If Tyreke ever wants to get double-digit assists, he needs to assist guys near the basket like Nash did with Amare that usually led to a dunk. Nobody will assist 10+ from 3’s and long 2’s.
"We're not talking about me and Darko in the same sentence." - Chris Webber vs KAHN!
by caseycheesecake on Oct 22, 2010 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions
Wally
Sometimes I think you just like to argue. Doesn’t matter what about.
I didn't major in Common F-cking Sense, but ...
The point being made is valid. There were times when the team was in a huge shooting slump last year. I clearly remember it. So, yeah it stands out to me and others. Disagree all you want.
I didn't major in Common F-cking Sense, but ...
Oh I know it happened
and I know it happened to Nash and Rondo, and Deron Williams, and Chris Paul and every other point guard who played meaningful minutes. It happens, it’s just that Tyreke isn’t special in that regard.
I predict JT will never breathe through his nose.
by wallywagon11 on Oct 22, 2010 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions
You do realize that nobody said that Tyreke was special because of that, right?
That what you posted seemed to completely ignore what was post. While it is true that all teams and players experience shooting slumps it is not wrong of people to point out that it occurred, right? Isn’t that why we all log on here? Too discuss the Kings and what has or may happen?
Your posts came off like you were saying that was not worthy, special enough, to merit discussion and wrong to post about. Kind of off-base IMO and more like you wanted to pick something to disagree about.
Just so happened the whole special thing was what you brought up and it seemed pretty removed from the original post.
I didn't major in Common F-cking Sense, but ...
Good point
Vlade Divac, the 24 year old [Redacted] center who reported to training camp at 250, 15 pounds more than last season's weight: "We all get heavier as we get older because there's a lot more information in our heads. Our heads weigh more."
Well I was under the impression that 9K1NGS6 was arguing that, due to a shooting slump toward the end of the year, the Kings may have ended up missing a disproportionate amount of shots from Reke's "un-realilzed" assists.
If I am wrong, sue me. I simply explained why I felt that slump wasn’t that big a deal. If I am wrong, oh darn I wasted time on the keyboard. I too like discussing the Kings and what has or may happen here is an example where I was discussing what has happened.
I predict JT will never breathe through his nose.
by wallywagon11 on Oct 22, 2010 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions
It sounded to me like 9K1NGS6 was arguing what Wally thought: That Tyreke was losing out on assists due to something greatly amidst with Kings shooting.
That’s what I read. And, like Wally, there is nothing unusual with that. It happens every night in the NBA.
Assists are the worst stat in sports bar none.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
Amen brother
"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
The greatest impact player in NBA History - Tim Donaghy
Oh I don't disagree assists, it is MO that gets old
I was just pointing out that while 9K1NGS6 wasn’t making any statement about it being unusual or Tyreke being the only PG in the league to experience that. That in fact he was just stating that it happened. It did happen and was worthy of mention. That it would interesting to see if it keeps happening this year.
We had a slump and it was worth noting. Nothing wrong with saying it. There is something wrong with looking for places to start an argument about something as insignificant as what other people think is worth mentioning. And putting a different take or spin on it just to argue with them.
My perspective is that some people just like to argue on here and that gets old. If you want to argue fine, but at least argue with what somebody explicitly states and not what you read into it for them.
I didn't major in Common F-cking Sense, but ...
My perspective is that those who sin shouldn't cast the first stone.
Don’t argue with anyone if you’re going to lecture someone else on said behavior.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
Hey! Fuck you guru! I'll cast first stones at everyone,
no matter how much I sin.
Don't say stupid shit. You won’t be perceived as stupid. - pookeyguru
by Kfan in Korea on Oct 25, 2010 8:14 AM PDT up reply actions
Of course you will. But you're an asshole so I expect nothing less. :)
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
BS! You expected much less. You don't fool me with your
patronizing smiley face.
:) you! :) you!
Don't say stupid shit. You won’t be perceived as stupid. - pookeyguru
by Kfan in Korea on Oct 25, 2010 8:30 AM PDT up reply actions
Hilarious how? What's hilarious about it?
“You mean, let me understand this cause, ya know maybe it’s me, I’m a little fucked up maybe, but I’m hilarious how, I mean hilarious like I’m a clown, I amuse you? I make you laugh, I’m here to fuckin’ amuse you? What do you mean hilarious, hilarious how? How am I hilarious? "
Don't say stupid shit. You won’t be perceived as stupid. - pookeyguru
by Kfan in Korea on Oct 25, 2010 10:17 AM PDT up reply actions
:-)
nice
Don't say stupid shit. You won’t be perceived as stupid. - pookeyguru
by Kfan in Korea on Oct 25, 2010 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions
I try to argue with them on their point
Not a misunderstanding or what I think they said. Am I always successful? Hell no, but at least I try to do it. People often misunderstand what somebody is saying and argue about some point that isn’t even what they posted about.
I would not point this out if I didn’t have first hand experience and done this same shit myself. I have also been on the receiving end of it.
You can have your stone back along with your lecture. Don’t need it. Got plenty.
I didn't major in Common F-cking Sense, but ...
This is bullshit
I predict JT will never breathe through his nose.
by wallywagon11 on Oct 25, 2010 8:31 AM PDT up reply actions
Sounds like it is not intentional Wally
It happens pretty often. And no, I am no angel either, Pookey, I have tried to make sure I understand what others are and are not saying before arguing with them.
All too often it is nothing more than a misunderstanding.
I didn't major in Common F-cking Sense, but ...
What the hell are you talking about
When did I argue with 9K1NGS6? He stated an opinion, then I stated an opinion. That’s it. I didn’t argue with him at all. My only back and forth was with you not 9K1INGS6 in the slightest. And I was making a point. My point is that I don’t think the shooting slump mattered in the grand scheme of things. That’s it. When did I not argue a point? Hate to break it to you but you were the one who decided to make it personal.
I predict JT will never breathe through his nose.
by wallywagon11 on Oct 25, 2010 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions
You are either intellectually dishonest or your sig line carries a lot more truth than you intended
Wally Sometimes I think you just like to argue. Doesn’t matter what about.
Your posts came off like you were saying that was not worthy, special enough, to merit discussion and wrong to post about. Kind of off-base IMO and more like you wanted to pick something to disagree about.
Oh I don’t disagree assists, it is MO that gets old …
There is something wrong with looking for places to start an argument about something as insignificant as what other people think is worth mentioning. And putting a different take or spin on it just to argue with them.
My perspective is that some people just like to argue on here and that gets old. If you want to argue fine, but at least argue with what somebody explicitly states and not what you read into it for them.
So let me get this straight, I can’t talk about how I feel the slump does not hold much value in the conversation about Reke’s "un-realized’ assists because it is somehow just looking for an arguement? Yet apparantly you talking about how the slump is worth noting is based on a point? How is mine just looking for an arguement yet yours is a point? I gave you actual reasons why I don’t think the streak holds much value, I am pretty damn sure I was stating my point and in NO WAY would someone characterize my exchange with 9K1NGS6 as an arguement.
everyone has a lot of “un-realized” assists in the league. Tyreke is nothing special. Considering nobody ever shoots 100% it’s going to happen.
actually Tyreke is very special just not in the "un-realized" assists department
This is all I said in response to 9K1NGS6’s comment. That’s it. Everything else was in response to you. I never brought up his name, I have zero clue why I would even begin to think it’s “wrong” for 9K1NGS6 to have made his original comment (why would I place moral judgments on someone just talking about assists?) and to suggest this is somehow constituted an arguement between 9K1NGS6 and I is disingenuous at best.
I usually don’t comment to agree because there is a rec button for that. I often comment to be a smart ass and make bad jokes and yeah I sure as hell comment to state a personal opinion. Believe it or not I have an actual fucking opinion on somethings and I often like to state it and I have zero clue why I couldn’t state my personal opinion where I did. It was in a logical spot in the thread largely based on a logical conclusion I drew up from the previous comment but it was my own separate opinion. Even if I am wrong about 9K1INGS6 intent it doesn’t matter, I was merely stating the opinion that I personally do not see how the slump at the end of last season has much value in regards to Tyreke’s "un-realized’ assists or whatever. If that wasn’t counter to what he intended in the first place, that’s great but I still believe what I said and it is my personal opinion regardless (For instance, he can simply reply “Yeah that’s not what I meant” and I can say “Cool, well I meant what I said even if it doesn’t really follow your comment. Awesome.”) If you want to disagree with me and my opinion (which you clearly did) and say you find the slump noteworthy then be my guest but if I disagree on the point I will let you know and I will keep to the fucking point like I did. If all you really wanted to say was that 9K1INGS6 was not saying it’s noteworthy then you should have just stuck to that but you decided to argue counter to me and say you find it noteworthy (and that is fine).
But no, somehow I am just putting a “different spin” on something. Apparantly I am not allowed to have a personal opinion that runs counter to yours and even when I focus solely on my arguement as to why I hold said beliefs, I get called out as just taking a different “spin” just to argue. I don’t make up shit just to argue. That’s complete bullshit. You are the one who decided to esculate this into personal accusations over nothing and then to top it off you say “nothing personal here?”
Nothing personal here? Are you serious? Don’t take a piss on me and then tell me it’s raining.
I predict JT will never breathe through his nose.
by wallywagon11 on Oct 25, 2010 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions
Intellectual dishonesty is one of the many deaths in a dynasty.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
You reading Tacitus lately?
Only reason I ask is he was a senator in Rome and wrote about the collapse of the Roman Empire. I recall this was a big theme of his actually.
I predict JT will never breathe through his nose.
by wallywagon11 on Oct 25, 2010 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions
Nope.
Never heard of him. Just the way it goes with empires. Intellectual dishonesty is one of the ways you build an empire, and it’s one of the first signs that that empire is crumbling because of that dishonesty. Irony is a bitch, unfortunately.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
It's raining piss? Nice imagery. Can't believe I read that wall of words.
The thing is that it is not personal for me. It is not like I hate you or something. I don’t even know you. So, yeah for me it isn’t personal. If it has to be personal for you then fine. Whatever as that is your choice.
You have every right to post your thoughts. I would not deny anybody that and could not even it I wanted to do so. Take my comments however you like or don’t at all. There is some truth in what I am saying or at least a bit of a different perspective from your own. I don’t think you want to come off as argumentative as you do, but I could be wrong.
You can take this any way you want and you will do that irregardless of anything I say anyway so, like I said, whatever. I could be just an ass pissing on you, a person who is sick of your shit, a good samaritan trying to help you out, some idiot who misunderstood you, or some intellectually dishonest dynastic ruler named Tacitus. Or I could be fraction of any of the above in proportions of your choosing.
I didn't major in Common F-cking Sense, but ...
Well no shit it's not personal for you, I stayed away from saying anything personal.
I predict JT will never breathe through his nose.
by wallywagon11 on Oct 26, 2010 8:33 AM PDT up reply actions
If I hurt your feelings I am sorry
Sometimes these posts can come across as pretty brutal. I don’t think you are a bad person or anything. I don’t. I also don’t come onto this site to make people feel like crap. So, if I did I am really sorry about that.
I didn't major in Common F-cking Sense, but ...
Next time just flag my opinion okay
I predict JT will never breathe through his nose.
by wallywagon11 on Oct 25, 2010 8:32 AM PDT up reply actions
Flagged for requesting a flag!
Don't say stupid shit. You won’t be perceived as stupid. - pookeyguru
by Kfan in Korea on Oct 25, 2010 8:33 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Rec'd.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
Not flag worthy - sorry
You don’t rate their dude and I am not totally slamming you here. I just notice that it has happened between you and I before and is a kind of ongoing occurence on other threads.
If it was me, and it has been plenty, I would just back off the hair trigger a bit. It make the kill all that more enjoyable when you bag the right game.
I didn't major in Common F-cking Sense, but ...
His job is to find the open man within the context of the offense
Whether thats pick and roll or drive and kick.
And there is a reason guys are less likely to be found open under the basket as they are near the three point line, because that’s what defenses are willing to allow.
Tyreke’s assist went up last year after the acquisition of Carl because he actually had someone who could catch and convert down low. Carl makes himself available to catch the ball by sealing his man, something JT and Spencer sort of suck at doing. DMC will even become at it than Carl.
Your point about no passing into the block for assists would carry more weight if there were clear instances of Tyreke missing cutters and not giving the ball to guys in scoring position. I didn’t see that too often.
And the Kings aren’t running the Princeton offense, so back door cuts aren’t there all too often.
I would guess Tyreke assists will be go up to about 7.5 this year. I expect when the season rolls along he is going to start finding guys regularly when and where they want the ball. It is a long season and driving relentlessly to the hoop takes its toll.
Part of the evolution of a superstar player is learning times of the game to play as decoy and set up man, and also when to assert yourself more offensively. This is an art as much as a science as to finding that balance between scoring and passing, but Tyreke will discover it with experience.
I predict JT puts up 7/5 this year.
Not sure if I made it clear where I was coming from
Whether thats pick and roll or drive and kick.
And there is a reason guys are less likely to be found open under the basket as they are near the three point line, because that’s what defenses are willing to allow.
No disagreement there.
Tyreke’s assist went up last year after the acquisition of Carl because he actually had someone who could catch and convert down low. Carl makes himself available to catch the ball by sealing his man, something JT and Spencer sort of suck at doing. DMC will even become at it than Carl.
Your point about no passing into the block for assists would carry more weight if there were clear instances of Tyreke missing cutters and not giving the ball to guys in scoring position. I didn’t see that too often.
I honestly do not know whether Tyreke’s assists improved over the second half of the year because of Carl, but in the end that does not really matter to me because in no way was I trying to make a point that Tyreke is not a willing passind down in the low block or that he didn’t improve at it as the season progressed. All I was saying is last year alot of his assist attempts were around the three point lane from kickouts. Wasn’t saying he need to change or that he wouldn’t get it, or who’s fault it was but that I was under the impression (again could be totally wrong) that he tended to get a high percentage of his assist attempts by kick outs. That’s it.
And the Kings aren’t running the Princeton offense, so back door cuts aren’t there all too often.
Yup
I would guess Tyreke assists will be go up to about 7.5 this year. I expect when the season rolls along he is going to start finding guys regularly when and where they want the ball. It is a long season and driving relentlessly to the hoop takes its toll.
Yup
Part of the evolution of a superstar player is learning times of the game to play as decoy and set up man, and also when to assert yourself more offensively. This is an art as much as a science as to finding that balance between scoring and passing, but Tyreke will discover it with experience.
Not only that but what he is doing right now is pretty darn good in it’s own right.
I predict JT will never breathe through his nose.
by wallywagon11 on Oct 22, 2010 4:04 PM PDT up reply actions
blockquote fail
I predict JT will never breathe through his nose.
by wallywagon11 on Oct 22, 2010 4:04 PM PDT up reply actions
You fail alot. :P
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I'm pretty sure that there is no way to check this
but I’m sure that a lot of ’Reke’s assists were passes at the perimeter very late in the possession when he had dribbled for a long time, couldn’t find a seam to the hoop and made a desperation pass. A ’flaming bag" pass if you will.
I’m expecting that as his game matures there are going to be far fewer of those kind of passes. Hopefully we will start to see that this season.
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There's some truth to this
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
by lietothegirls on Oct 24, 2010 7:50 PM PDT up reply actions
There is.
But, I also don’t think it’s beyond the realm to expect that growing pains come with a young team and/or a growing superstar like Reke. You don’t go from A-Z without having to hit few of the early letters in the alphabet.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
As HT has repeatedly pointed out,
if Tyreke has an abnormally high percentage of unrealized assists, it’s his own fault to a significant degree. If a point guard penetrates and dishes to a PF with a clear path to the basket, there might be an 80% chance that results in a basket/assist. If a point guard penetrates and dishes to a spotted up wing for an open three, there might be a 40% chance that results in a basket/assist. Tyreke does the latter more than most point guards. It might be a touch better if he had spot-up shooters who could hit 45% instead of 38%, but it would make a vastly bigger difference if he were passing to people at the rim instead of on the perimeter.
Glad someone was paying attention
but you make it sound like I talk about nothing else. ;)
"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
The greatest impact player in NBA History - Tim Donaghy
This is backwards logic
I totally disagree. How can anyone possibly say that Tyreke needs to do something so that another player becomes open under the basket? Ludicrous!
It is his teammates responsibility to create space between themselves and the defender within the context of the play set. If they do and Tyreke misses the pass, thats on him. But if a teammate does not put himself in an advantageous to catch and score, Tyreke cannot magically deliver the ball for an easy dunk.
I predict JT puts up 7/5 this year.
Interesting chicken or egg theory
Does Evans not create easy shots for his bigs or do the bigs not get open and therefore Evans can’t get the ball to them. What stat clears up that question? Because that would be a question that I would be interested in finding the answer.
but in the context of Zillers post, if no big is making himself open and Tyreke’s only option is to kick out for the assist from a deep 2 or 3, how does that make the shooter not able to create off his own. Because the point I got from the post and the stats, are that a player who hits a large percentage of his shots off of assisted baskets, is a player that can’t or doesn’t create on his own. To which I say, Omri is more than able to create on his own, but his coach is requiring him not to as part of the offensive scheme. So, how can you imply anything based on such a subjective stat as assists.
"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
The greatest impact player in NBA History - Tim Donaghy
I think Tyreke should consider
putting his offense in the backseat (not the basement) for a month or two and try to average 10 assists a game and see what happens. I think it would improve his game and team chemistry a lot. 16-18 points could work.
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
He will probably need to assert himself early in games
We have had a habit of starting slow. I don’t know if it is that he needs to read whether his teammates have it going better, or that his teammates just need to get going more.
I would like to see him give it up a little more…especially on breaks. Not that I don’t like his agressiveness, or that I think someone else will get a better shot. It is just that he can get his at any time. Guys love to run hard with a player when they know they will get rewarded.
I think 16-18 in the 4th would be good.
And 6 each other quarter.
"We're not talking about me and Darko in the same sentence." - Chris Webber vs KAHN!
by caseycheesecake on Oct 22, 2010 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I wouldn't go that far. Assists will come,
but I don’t believe that he needs to always beat his man on his own or penetrate all the way to the basket every time. To create mismatches and open shots for others, he needs to draw the defense out to him. And not always give them the opportunity to slide back deep into the paint and wait for him.
Use the pick & roll to get the defenders to switch so the big has a smaller defender on him. Use the short jumper to pull defenders out to you after you beat your man, leaving someone else undefended.
As TZ pointed out, the ability to create more than one shot (drive to the rim) makes the player more valuable.
"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
The greatest impact player in NBA History - Tim Donaghy
One aspect of this line of measurement that's overlooked, is the location of the assist.
and who is the recipient of the assist.
If Beno drives into the paint and makes a shovel pass to Dalembert at the rim for a dunk, that has greater value than kicking the ball into the corner to Landry for a 3. Even if both shoots are made the dunk if a high percentage play where the 3 pointer from Landry was not. Also, passing out to an open Cousins from 15 feet, is a better assist then kicking it out to a covered Casspi who has to throw up a quick shot to beat the 24 sec clock.
But, when you look at those plays statisticly, all 4 have the same value because all 4 were successful. I suppose that if you look at assist numbers over an entire year things will average out. But, the number is the number, and the great assist leader get the ball to the players on his team that can make the shot at a high percentage where he delivers it.
Looking at the numbers from last years says more to me about the style of offense we played that about the players. The ball went thru Evans, Beno & Carls hands, and the others we’re a 2nd option making them catch and shoot players. Landry got the ball and tried to drive to the basket and when he couldn’t he put up an unassisted jumper. While JT pretty much became a catch & shoot player away from the basket, and scored more from offensive misses at the basket then from good interior feeds around the rim.
When a player draws a double team and kicks it into the corner, and the defense rotates allowing the ball to be passed around the horn so that the man on the oppposite side of the court gets an open shot, who gets the assist? And, who deserves the credit for starting the play in the first place? Assists can be a very deceiving number. Until they can quatify the value of the assist, I feel the metric is misleading.
"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
The greatest impact player in NBA History - Tim Donaghy
by HighTops on Oct 22, 2010 1:13 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
This
Looking at the numbers from last years says more to me about the style of offense we played that about the players.
I predict JT will never breathe through his nose.
by wallywagon11 on Oct 22, 2010 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Disagree
Your logic is backwards. All a player can do is move the ball to the open man. You seem to want to assign blame to the passer for making the right play. Here’s an example to clarify my point:
If a shooter is spotted up in the corner waiting to receive a pass when in fact he could jab fake his defender and dive to the hoop when he sees space, he needs to do it. If he is standing in the corner twiddling his thumbs, only a threat to catch and shoot, he is less of a weapon to the passer or creator with the ball than a player who continuously works to get open.
This comes to down a question of skill sets. A guy like Omri has more ways to beat you offensively than Donte. A guy like Landry has more ways to beat you than JT. The fact that these players can keep defenses off balance with a myriad of ways to score opens up passing lanes more so than a one dimensional player. This is how high percentage passing opportunities are created, when the man off the ball (Carl or Omri or DMC) can be as much of a threat to score as the man with the ball (Beno or Tyreke).
I predict JT puts up 7/5 this year.
Interesting examples but I'm not sure what your disagreeing with
As I read the TZ’s post, (which may be way off base) he starts out talking about the importance of players who can create their own shot(s). But then goes on to talking about assists. In the statement
In Evans and Francisco Garcia, we have two extremes: Tyreke creates his own shot 80 percent of the time, and El Flaco relies on someone else to do so 80 percent of the time.
He seems to imply that a high assisted basket percentage means that you can’t or don’t create on your own. But, we know that PW has told the world that his SF’s need to defend and hit open shots. So, if Omri and Donte or Cisco for that matter take the open shot after a feed from Evans, it only means that they are playing in the context of the offense and their coaches wishes. So, I refute the importance of the assist stat as any metric that can be used for any deep analysis.
My comment above was only an an attempt to show that there are different qualities to assists. High percentage, low percentage, Lucky and talented, to which value would have to be established before any true metric could be used.
"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
The greatest impact player in NBA History - Tim Donaghy
I cannot believe I am going to jump in this
When 9K1NGS6 brought up Tyreke’s assumed high (un-realized ?) assists totals he was directing it at the teams lack of efficient scorers and not placement of Reke’s passes although I agree it is factor.
Yes the math breaks down pretty simply. A three point shot is going to be hit (40%) compared to shot around layup range (60%), thus more assists if those passes are directed at layup attempts.
Yet his original comment is insinuating the Kings did not have efficient scorers meaning guys who shoot less than 40% from the three point line or cannot convert short range attempts at a 60% rate. I think the person who brought Nash into the argument brought up a good distinction (although he used Nash to discredit Reke’s assist ability), Reke doesn’t have Amare Stoudemire finishing his passes inside and the Kings certainly don’t have a roster full of outside shooters the Suns put around Nash. Reke isn’t going to be Nash in the assist column but agree Reke’s un-realized assists will be converted to real assists with better/improved teammates which seemed to be more a problem than pass selection this past season.
Or maybe this conversation is deeper than my understanding and should have stuck with original instinct of staying out of it.

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