FanPost

To Natt Or Not to Natt Part Trois



So reading over the first two parts of the analysis posters did on mid-season coaching changes (here and here), I thought it would be interesting to look at the long term health of the franchises.  After all, what good are an extra 3-5 wins if players, don't develop, draft position is sabotaged and the team goes downhill the following few seasons.  So below is another graph and some statistics for people to ponder.

In case they are not obvious, the headers are:

 

YO: the year of the midseason change

Y1, Y2, Y3: The following 3 seasons

# of C: # of coaches during those 3 years (10 games coached minimum)

I or E: For teams that improved, small evaluation on whether the improvements were mostly based on internal changes from coaching/player development or external changes like getting LeBron James in the draft or signing Steve Nash.

 

 

Team  Year  Y0 Y1 Y2 Y3 #of C I or E
Memphis  2008 0.293 0.488 0.4   1 Internal
Minnesota  2008 0.293 0.183 0.211   2 NA
Oklahoma City  2008 0.28 0.61 0.65   1 Internal
Philadelphia  2008 0.5 0.329 0.263   3 NA
Washington  2008 0.232 0.317 0.333   2 Internal
Chicago  2007 0.402 0.5 0.5 0.529 3 E - Rose, Salmons, Noah, Boozer
Memphis  2006 0.268 0.268 0.293 0.488 3 E - Mayo, Conley, Randolph, Marc Gasol 
Miami  2005 0.634 0.537 0.183 0.524 2 NA
Dallas  2004 0.707 0.732 0.817 0.622 1 Internal
Denver  2004 0.598 0.537 0.549 0.61 2 Internal
Memphis  2004 0.549 0.598 0.268 0.268 3 NA
Minnesota  2004 0.537 0.402 0.39 0.268 3 NA
New Jersey  2003 0.57 0.512 0.598 0.5 1 NA
New York  2003 0.402 0.28 0.402 0.28   NA
Orlando  2003 0.256 0.439 0.439 0.488 3 E - Some guy named Dwight Howard
Atlanta  2002 0.427 0.341 0.159 0.317 3 NA
Cleveland  2002 0.207 0.427 0.512 0.61 4 E - Some player named LeBron James
LA Clippers  2002 0.329 0.341 0.451 0.573 2 Inconclusive - Brought in vets like Cassell & Mobley.  However, they saw good improvement from Brand & Maggette
Memphis  2002 0.341 0.61 0.549 0.598 2 Internal
Chicago  2001 0.28 0.573 0.5 0.598 1 Internal
LA Clippers  2009 0.354 0.2     2 NA
Phoenix  2008 0.561 0.659 0.526   1 Internal
Sacramento  2008 0.207 0.305 0.235   2 NA
Toronto  2008 0.402 0.528 0.421   1 Internal
Milwaukee  2006 0.341 0.317 0.415 0.561 2 Internal
Minnesota  2006 0.39 0.268 0.293 0.183 3 NA
Seattle  2005 0.427 0.378 0.244 0.28 3 NA
Cleveland  2004 0.512 0.61 0.61 0.549 2 Internal
New York  2004 0.476 0.28 0.402 0.28 4 NA
Orlando  2004 0.439 0.439 0.488 0.634 3 Internal
Portland  2004 0.329 0.256 0.39 0.5 2 E - Roy, Aldridge
Boston  2003 0.439 0.549 0.402 0.293 2 E - Walker, Payton, Jefferson
Chicago  2003 0.256 0.366 0.28 0.573 2 E - Deng, Gordon, Hinrich
Philadelphia  2003 0.402 0.524 0.603 0.427 3 Inconclusive - were .585 in 2002, Iverson went from 48 to 75 games the following year, added Iguodala
Phoenix  2003 0.354 0.756 0.659 0.744 1 E - Nash, Joe Johnson
Denver  2001 0.329 0.207 0.594 0.598 4 E - Carmelo, Camby, Miller, Hilario
Golden St.  2001 0.256 0.463 0.451 0.415 3 E - Arenas, Richardson
New York  2001 0.366 0.451 0.476 0.402 3 NA
Phoenix  2001 0.439 0.537 0.354 0.756 2 E - Nash, Marion, Stoudemire
Total   0.394 0.439 0.429 0.482 2.289  
Total sub-.400   0.313 0.391 0.414 0.496 2.227  
Total Sub-.300   0.257 0.404 0.391 0.529

2.182

 

 

Some statistics from the table:

 

61% improved
31% Improved Internally
28% Improved Externally
15% Improved Internally with midseason replacement long term
38% Went through 3+ Coaches

25% Improved with the coach hired after the season ended

 

Overall, what does this mean for us.  Regardless of who we bring in, I think we are likely to improve long term based on natural player development and another lottery pick. 

It also makes little sense to let go of Westphal unless you think Elie can be one of the 15% of coaches who worked long term.  Personally, I feel like the players are developing and unless he completley loses them, I would rather have him finish the year for the sake of consistency.  If the team continues to dissapoint, then I would like to see Westphal remain with the team in an executive capacity, while bringing in another coach after the season.  I think Westphal knows NBA basketball and seems to have helped Dallas when he was there.  Petrie and him seem to get along and Westphal's is tenured enough in the NBA and a strong enough personality to help be an effective sounding board and counter-balance to Petrie in a positive way.  It would also prevent the Maloofs from having to pay Westphal for nothing.  That can be done graciously at seasons end, but would be much harder mid-season.

(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)

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