Preview: Kings at Nuggets

Denver was 8-1 at home in January, and 4-2 on the road. Their only losses were to the Kings and OKC on the road and Philly at home. And, for the season the Nuggets are 32-15 and 21-3 at home. And, even though the Kings have beaten them twice this season, the first game was won because of the presence of Section214 and his StR entourage, and the second game was won on a last second shot by Tyreke and possibly because of the absence of Carmello Anthony.

And, it looks like the Nuggets could be without Carmello again. On January 23rd against the NOH, he rolled his left ankle when he landed on Devin Brown’s foot. And, as of late Sunday night he was still listed as day to day, so the Kings might be in for a break once again. Although his absence didn’t help CHA win in Denver, or SAS & HOU win at home. The only game Denver has lost since Carmello’s injury was in OKC 101-84.

Joey Graham is starting in Mello’s place, and in 11 starts this season he’s averaging 7.5ppg /3.3rpg on 45% shooting and 14% from 3pt range. Kenyon Martin is still there steady 14/10 go to guy shooting 53% field and 40% from 3’s. But, add Chauncey Billups (NBA Player of the Week for the week ending the 23rd) and JR Smith and you have a very potent offense in spite of Mellos’ lose. And, let’s not forget the bigs. Nene is averaging 14/8 and Andersen is contributing 6/6. Ty Lawson, who had 12/6/4 in the loss to Sac, has been putting up 12/4/2 coming off the bench over the last 10 games, shooting 49% field and 45% from 3.

In the last 4 games without Mello, Denver has had very little scoring at the rim. They’re averaging 25ppg on 52% efficiency, and are actually more efficient and scoring more points from beyond the arc. They seem to have more problems with the bigger front court opponents, like SAS, OKC, & LAC, and dominate teams like the GSW while the Kings seem to be somewhere in the middle. In the last game the Kings only gave up 32pts at the rim on 59% shooting, and 24pts on 54% shooting from beyond the arc.

The Kings are ranked 20th in offensive efficiency and 25th defensively. In the last 10 games our eFG% was only above the league average of 49.7% twice, and we lost both of those games to CHA. The only game we won, our eFG% was only 40.2% but GS only had a 34% eFG%. And, we’ve only scored over 100pts once in the last 10 games. So, whether it’s a matter of the Kings shooters being in a slump or just returning to normal, the fact is they’re not shooting well enough to win without a good defensive effort.

Denver really doesn’t have a big shot blocker other than Andersen, and Nene and Martin only average about one each per game. And without Mello, Martin & Nene are the only real rebounders in the starting line up. And, if Hawes can continue to shot well, I think he can draw Nene away from the rim. Evans won’t play because of his injured hip, so Beno will start. Afflalo defends Martin and Billups will be on Beno. But, the key to the game, will be JT and if he can defend Kenyon Martin. JT is going to need another brilliant defensive game like he had against Charlotte.

Keys to the Game:

Who plays and who doesn’t: Will Carmello come back from the ankle sprain or will he rest it up for the All-Star Game. After the SAS game it was reported that he would play tonight, but it’s not certain. And, with Tyreke recovering from his hip bruise, who will be able to produce against Billups, Beno or Sergio?

Can JT box out Kenyon Martin and keep him off the boards? PF’s have been killing us (Utah, CHA), so it’s time for JT to step up his defense. But, PW needs to stop pulling JT & Spence every time things start to go wrong. Going small isn’t the answer to anything in the NBA, and our young bigs need to learn, the hard way if necessary.

Kevin needs to get into the flow, before he starts jacking up 3’s. This is a team where he can attack the paint, or cut backdoor. Billups isn’t a quick young PG (33yrs old), and even if Martin isn’t in game shape yet, he should really be able to put the pressure on Billups. And, that might be enough to disrupt Billups offensive game. If the Kings are going to double Billups on the pick & roll, the weak side help has to come and defend the screener.

Without knowing whether Mello will play, I’d have to give the game to Denver by 9. George Karl has them in 2nd place in the West, and playing pretty good. If Mello doesn’t return, then it’s a different story. Same ending but a much more interesting game. Nuggets by 2 unless JT wins the PF battle. Go Kings.