The Case for Tyrus Thomas as a King

He’s young, athletic and doesn’t have a hideous contract like Okafor or Dalembert. I could see giving up K9 and a protected 2011 first rounder for him.

It depends on the remainder of any deal to pick this cat up. This first round pick plus expirings? No thanks. The first round pick plus a Nocioni? Yeah, that’s a bit better – but obviously not from Chicago’s viewpoint.

Two problems I see here – one, is that Petrie generally tends to use his more valuable assets on guys that can shoot the ball. Second – you properly outlined the case for dealing another lottery pick, and how this team can’t continue to get younger forever. However, could Petrie use that pick as part of a deal down the road to get a better player than Tyrus Thomas?

The question is the cost. An unprotected future pick for a guy who could demand an unreasonable RFA contract, sign the qualifying offer, and walk away after a year a la Ben Gordon? No thanks.

I’d be willing to trade any combination of Beno, Noc, Sergio, Brockman, KT, Armstrong, May, Udoka, 2nd Rounder…. whatever they want outside of the young core. And no way would I give up a future first, let alone unprotected. Because of the salary scale draft picks are more valuable than ever. Certainly more valuable than a potential head case who could be a handful trying to re-sign.

I’ll admit that initially the prospect of an unprotected first scared me, but not as much thinking about it more—although I think that the Bulls leaking that they “have a team willing to offer a first” sounds like bluffing to me. I’d only offer a protected for now.

But this is the money line:

So in 2011, when we’re gearing up for a possible playoff run, does another lottery pick help this team as much as a Tyrus Thomas not yet in his prime? A pick who for all we know could take 3-4 years to develop?

You’re right. At some point, this team is going to have to make its push. At that point, we won’t want to be waiting for more lotto picks to develop, we’ll be wanting to win now (and I think this change in philosophies is going to happen sooner rather than later). In rebuilding you want to stockpile as many assets and talent as possible, but you need to cash in and condense your rotation to kick start your run.

no reason to pick him up now and if you don’t like him in the 30 games you have him – a point I don’t believe you have even considered – you are out a first round pick. Nope, I would rather have Leon Powe or Brandan Wright or JJ Hickson, mostly, I would rather have the first round pick to help fill whatever other hole that needs patching in another 112 games (and a possible #1 it may be).

that highlight above is pretty damn good

He’s ranked 15th in blocks per game, and tied for 14th in steals per game. He also only plays 23 minutes per game.

Comparing per 36 minute stats to some of the big guys we’ve looked into as well as price tags if Tyrus is offered and acceptes the $6 mil qualifying offer:

Okafor:
They score about the same. Thomas rebounds less but blocks more shots. They have the same number of defensive rebounds per 36 minutes. Thomas will be $4 million less per year and is 3 years younger

Sammy D:
Sammy scores less but blocks and rebounds more. However, Tyrus will be $6 million cheaper and about 5 years younger.

Murphy:
Murphy scores and rebounds better but doesn’t block as many shots. Tyrus will be $6 million cheaper and 6 years younger.

AK47:
AK scores more but doesn’t rebound or block as well. He’ll be $11 million more than Tyrus and is 5 years older.

So, Thomas is cheaper than all of the guys we’ve discussed, and younger. The stats are all fairly similar, the difference is usually a few points or rebounds per 36 minutes. Thomas is a better shot blocker and grabs more steals than all four of those guys. Plus, he could probably be locked up for quite a bit cheaper than any of them.

Get ’er done, Petrie

I like Thomas a lot but I do believe that he will be available as a FA. The problem that I see is that the Kings are going to have to pay serious jack to land the guy because…well…it’s Sacramento. So in effect, unless the Kings strongly believe that if they trade for Thomas he would sign a contract extension quickly for a reasonable amount then it doesn’t make a lot of sense to go get him.

Again, I like Thomas but I know he isn’t worth 6 million a year. If the Kings trade for him, they will be on the hook for at least 1 season at 6 million but probably more than that and they would have had to give up something of value to get him. I would prefer the Kings buy their way back into the first round and take a flier on a rookie with crazy athleticism, pay the 3 mill for the pick and then 1 mill a year for the next 4. For those of you who don’t believe that this mystical player I speak of will be available, ask the Bulls why they are willing to deal TT and they will tell you because they already have a clone in Taj Gibson who they took with the 26 pick.

The Bulls want to package Hinrich with Thomas

Maybe Thomas and Ammo to us.
K9/2011 pick to the Bulls
Hinrich to the Lakers

We don’t do a damn thing. We sit tight and let K-9 expire and wait. We fight out this year, develop the talent we have so that we have a better understanding of what we need, let the other teams freak out over the FA, and then swoop in for masterful moves once things settle down.

We should not sacrifice anything for this year. Not a first round pick or anything else. We are not going anywhere this year people. I say we do nothing unless it is cheap and has absolutely zero downside.

Damn I hate agreeing with moves of Petrie because this is exactly what he is doing right now.

We give up none of our future picks and take on none of these big contracts.

 no way do you trade a 1st round pick for tyrus thomas unless it is top 20 protected FOREVER

I can be as susceptible as the next fan to the guy who plays over the rim. It is tantalizing when a player can make plays that get fans out their seats. But vicious throw-downs don’t mean much if dude can’t catch an entry pass, coasts by on athletic gifts rather than real desire to improve, and acts as locker room malcontent. All reports from Bulls is TT has been this type of guy.

A coaching carousel is not an excuse. The play calling and leadership may suck, but players can always fall back on their fundamental basketball skills to perform. Vinny Del Negro may be weak at diagraming a play, but VDN knows who he can rely upon on the court to make smart plays. I don’t think TT has been high on this list.

That aside, any trade that could potentially send JT to the bench or further down in the rotation works for me. I don’t see JT as part of our long term future in any way, shape, or form. Barring one put back late off his own terrible miss, he was frankly really bad (again) against renowned rookie Jonas Jerebko. I have never seen a player shoot an 8 foot shot half the distance until last night. He missed the rim by 4 feet! For this reason alone, Geoff needs to be calling the Bulls.

But a 1st round pick in 2011? Protected or not, no dice. Geoff is too good a draft picker to trade any future picks. As positive as our future may look with Tyreke, the Kings are still a lottery team that can not yet afford to relinquish our most assured asset, a draft pick, to return to respectability.

There are times a team needs to roll the dice. But giving up a 1st rounder for a guy just suspended for verbal outburst, and who has shot 45% in 250 games from power position, and will demand a new contract soon, does not sound too enticing.

I have to defer to Geoff on this one. If he feels TT is a real upgrade over JT to pursue him seriously and make a legitimate offer, and compares favorably with this years draft class, then I am on board. I trust his judgement, and expect results to play out on court right away. More likely, given list of potential suitors and spotty performance history, no deal gets done and our 2010 pick will be better than TT from Day 1.

for the right to negotiate a deal with Tyrus Thomas this summer. While I agree he’s potentially a good fit, I don’t see a reason to pursue him prior to us seeing who we get in the draft.

What are the possible outcomes:

1) Thomas grows up and by next summer you have to pay him a market value deal, the pick we give up ends up being a low one

2) Thomas grows up, but we don’t get a ton better next year, and the pick ends up being pretty good.

3) Thomas signs for market value but doesn’t get better so he becomes a bad contract, and we still give up the pick.

I just don’t see the benefit of acting over waiting to see what the summer or next year’s deadline brings.

maybe we should try to draft DeMarcus Cousins

I wouldn’t do it otherwise. And I would very much love to get TT.

So teams bidding for Thomas ought to understand that the Bulls’ demands in this case, strong as they be, mean little, assuming Chicago’s front office will eventually act logically. The teams are bidding against each other, not the Bulls. I’d be shocked if the Bulls get a good first-round pick in exchange for the privilege of first dibs on negotiating with Thomas this summer.

The Kings have 2 expiring contracts that they can deal to get TT. Just as importantly, as any other team can, they don’t have to GIVE UP an unprotected 1st rounder either. TT isn’t worth it if he sets off a bidding frenzy. And he surely isn’t worth an unprotected 1st round pick in 2011 when the Kings might be able to pick up the same quality of player for a lot cheaper.

There is no reason to go all-in for TT unless you’re a team that desperately needs size. The Kings have other options than a trade for TT, and thus no reason to act desperate. I would, though, support an unprotected 2012 1st rounder though. Just not 2011.

New Fanshot up. Amick says there is significant Kings interest in Troy Murphy.

http://dberri.wordpress.com/2010/01/07/revisiting-lamarcus-aldridge-for-tyrus-thomas/

Thomas has a $15.6 million cap hold next year. That, coupled with a $6+ million qualifying offer leads me to believe that whomever owns his rights will renounce him and make him an unrestricted free agent.

I love Thomas and I think that he would be the perfect complement to both Hawes and Thompson, but not at that price. Dealing any assets to secure him would be foolish, in my opinion, as you would ultimately renounce his rights over the summer to avoid the immense cap hold, and that would make just another team bidding for his services.

If you could secure him for expiring contract, then you would have nothing to lose – renounce him and then try to re-sign him. But the Bulls have little incentive to trade him for expiring crap – they could merely waive him or put him in street clothes and accomplish the same thing.

..is something we can afford to part with for Thomas. Unprotected? NO thank you.

Can he do it on the regular though?