Is the Kings Rotation Abnormally Inconsistent?
by Tom Ziller on Feb 23, 2010 10:36 AM PST
in Commentary
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PrintShort answer: yes.
***
Long answer:
The complaint from some fans and now players -- voiced by Sean May and Spencer Hawes, most recently -- has been that Paul Westphal's rotation is so inconsistent that the team is suffering from role confusion and busted confidence. Whether inconsistent production forces an inconsistent rotation or an inconsistent rotation causes inconsistent production -- basically, a chicken-egg paradox -- is not something which can be figured out by a dunce like me in the span of one morning. You likely have your opinion on that, as do I (mine: it's gray), and that's not what I am to uncover here.
I want to go even more basic, more atomic. The question: is Westphal's rotation inconsistent by current NBA standards? If so, how inconsistent compared to the norm?
Using data from BasketballValue.com, I looked at the number of minutes each team's three most frequently used five-man units have played together so far this season. This seems like a good proxy for rotation consistency without slicing too thinly -- Atlanta, for example, has a very consistent rotation, but has two or three heavily used line-ups.
That said, compared to the league as a whole and to fellow "young, rebuilding teams," how inconsistent has Westphal's rotation been?
By this measure, Sacramento has the most inconsistent rotation in the league, less consistent than even that of Golden State, with its rampant injuries, somewhat quirky coach, parade of D-League call-ups and one trade. Golden State's three most frequently used line-ups have played a combined 273 minutes. Sacramento's three most frequently used line-ups have played a combined 266 minutes.
The next lowest total is Indiana, with 326 minutes between its three most heavily used line-ups.
Sacramento also holds the distinction of having the least used top line-up. The Kings' most heavily used line-up -- Beno Udrih, Tyreke Evans, Andres Nocioni, Jason Thompson, Spencer Hawes -- has played 100 minutes together this season. Golden State's most heavily used lin-up -- Stephen Curry, Monta Ellis, Anthony Morrow, Vladimir Radmanovic, Mikki Moore -- has played 124 minutes together. And that all happened by early January, when Moore was cut by the team.
The most heavily used line-up in the league this season has been Memphis's starting five (Mike Conley, O.J. Mayo, Rudy Gay, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol), with 1,166 minutes as a unit. You may remember that the Grizzlies are one of the very few teams in the league younger than the Kings. The Memphis starting five has only been changed when Gay and Conley each missed two games due to injury. The Grizzlies, with this line-up, began the season 1-8. Coach Lionel Hollins stuck with the unit, and the team is now 28-27 and within striking distance of its first playoff berth since 2006. The Memphis starting five outscore opponents by more than seven points per 100 possessions.
***
Again, I'm not saying Westphal's erratic rotation either hurts the team or is a necessary component of this team's status. I'm just saying it is indeed erractic by NBA standards.
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I have several opinions about this post, but each time I decide to type one out, I change my mind.
Rocks are free, and slingshots easily stolen.
by andy sims on Feb 23, 2010 10:45 AM PST reply actions 4 recs
I get that. Causality is impossible to determine, so I too end up in the gray area in between (a smidge of this cause and a smattering of that).
Was this a Poll question?
Yes.
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
It seems to me
that PW is trying different things to see what’s going to win more games. It worked early on but hasn’t lately. You’re Grizzlies example is definitely interesting. Hollins stuck with his starting lineup. He forced them to play together and to become consistent together. Maybe Westphal needs to take a page out of that book. Decide which players start, and which players come off the bench, and stick to that. Force the starters to learn to play together and trust each other. Force the bench players to bring their energy when they are called upon. I’d gladly take a 1-8 start if it meant we’d be playing .500 ball towards the end of the season as well as being in the running for a potential playoff berth.
That being said I think my lineups would look like this:
Evans
Greene
Casspi
Thompson
Hawes
And I’d bring Landry, Beno, and Garcia off the bench for the remainder of the season. Landry could easily start but I like him being in the 6th man hunt as well as Tyreke being the RoY candidate. Individual awards may be pointless, but the recognition for some of our guys would be nice.
www.mancancook.net
Agreed
and good lineup. I’d only flip Garcia for Greene. Prefer Cisco’s experience/grittiness in starting lineup while Donte brings athleticism to Beno and Landry. Naturally, bench guys could have chance to play more than token 18-24 minutes if they are meshing well with members of starting unit.
Looking for in-depth basketball analysis? Try http://www.basketballfreeforall.com!
I'd flip Thompson for Landry
As I want to see what he can do as a starter. I want to see what JT does as a 7th man.
Also
Keep in mind that bringing JT off the bench is a good way of keeping his market value at a reasonable level.
Hawes needs to come off the bench
I have a hard time starting a guy who had 2 or 3 total rebounds in back to back games over the weekend. This year for Hawes has been 1 step forward then 2 steps backwards and he just is not starting center right now. In theory his game would fit next to Landry as that high / low 4 and 5 combo but he hurts us in to many other ways.
Thompson by no means is playing great, especially on defense, but if he hits his averages at 12 pts and 8 reb I can live with that. At 6’-11" 250 lbs he is as big or bigger than a lot of centers in the league and if you look at his game right now he is more of a face up/ pick and pop guy because his post game hasn’t developed, so I think his game had the potential to fit with Landry’s.
by Mark Olberding on Feb 23, 2010 4:30 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I think that it is not only abnormally inconsistent
It’s sometimes unnecessarily inconsistent as well. Like you mentioned, we haven’t really had that many injuries other than the two at the beginning of the season with Kevin and Cisco.
I’d like to see more consistency as the season comes to a close.
Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order and Originator of the "Brock Ness Monster".
Although less consistency would actually be more consistent.
Rocks are free, and slingshots easily stolen.
by andy sims on Feb 23, 2010 10:51 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Ha yes
In that sense, Westphal is very consistent. Consistently inconsistent. I’ve typed consistent too much today.
Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order and Originator of the "Brock Ness Monster".
Yes.
No.
Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order and Originator of the "Brock Ness Monster".
And TZ beats me to the punch
Probably for the best though, since TZ throws a better punch than I do.
I was trying to work on a comparison to the 06-07 Celtics. I recalled that Doc Rivers was criticized for his lack of a consistent rotation as well. To TZ’s point, their most used line-up (Telfair-Pierce-Szczerbiak-Gomes-Perkins) only played 174 minutes together that season.
The rest of my breakdown wasn’t really coming together since I’m not so great with data, so I’ll leave it at that.
Never forget: I am a complete idiot
My god is that a horrible line up.
And that team won a championship next year.
Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order and Originator of the "Brock Ness Monster".
and being good friends with Kevin McHale
when he was spending all his time fishing and golfing….I mean when he was GM of the Timberpuppies.
What we've got here is, failure to communicate. Some men you just can't reach.
all I will say
is if you want to see an actual NBA front office that never did their homework and put the un in unprofessional, that was 600 First Ave at the Target Center in Minneapolis under McHale’s watch. They were more country club than NBA front office.
What we've got here is, failure to communicate. Some men you just can't reach.
You're not giving Papa Glen and Jim Stack/Fred Hoiberg enough credit for that as well.
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
I'm not sure Donald Sterling is a human being. He had to have been manufactured by someone, possibly David Stern, so that one team could solely just make profit for the NBA while doing nothing good for themselves. -- Aykis 16
no question about it
Glen Taylor, the Wolves owner facilitated it for years and years.
What we've got here is, failure to communicate. Some men you just can't reach.
The Grizzlies starting lineup units are by far better compared to their backups
There’s no dilemma in picking their starters. The Kings however have a bunch of potential forward starters (Landry, Thompson, Casspi, Donte, Nocioni, Garcia, Udoka, Brockman).
Do you start a rebounding/defensive specialist (Udoka, Brockman). Or a good shooter with long arms (Donte, Cisco). Maybe bring a talented spark of the bench to help the 2nd unit (JT, Landry)? Or do you go with the veteran (Nocioni)?
Choose
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
by lietothegirls on Feb 23, 2010 11:17 AM PST up reply actions
To me that is a relatively simple question
Field the team that is going to play the best (relative) defense, with rebounding as the second consideration. That means giving the most minutes to Tyreke, Casspi, Donte, Nocioni, and Udoka. That means giving significant minutes to Thompson and Dorsey (who is Brockman with more upside). That means only allowing 1 defensive hole on the floor at a time (i.e. Beno, JT, Hawes).
My 5, #s indicating position: 1) Tyreke, 2/4) Donte, 3) Casspi, 3/4) Nocioni, 5) Hawes
Bench: 1) Beno, 2/3) Garcia, 2/3) Udoka, 4) Landry, 5) Dorsey
Starting 5 are players with the possibility to gel into a good collective D-unit, with their size and quickness. No one stud rebounder, but as a unit should be effective. This is also Tyreke and 4 potential 3 pt. threats.
With the bench players, to reiterate, I would avoid at all costs pairing two defensive liabilities in the same unit. E.g. before Beno goes in, Hawes needs to check out. Dorsey in, Beno in.
I haven't liked it since the beginning of the season.
And I still don’t like it now. I realize that they kids are young, but I keep saying that you need to show confidence in players so that they mature confidently. Consistency is key to building a starting five, and we have none of that and all the lack of confidence that inconsistency provides.
I realize it’s a different team, but think about adelmans rotations when he was here. You knew every game was gonna start off the same. The players did, the opposing teams did, and the fans did. What we know now is that the team is gonna look different almost every game and that sort of bi-polar experience is indicative of our frustrations with the team this season.
If yr not happy with the results, lower yr expectations.
If I recall,
Adelman had an almost unquestionable starting line-up, and he was most criticized for having too short a rotation and being too “loyal” to his starters.
Lower their expectations and rise to met them
One difference
Adelman’s lineup was several shitty calls away from a championship
www.mancancook.net
And several missed free throws.
And a blown knee.
Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order and Originator of the "Brock Ness Monster".
You and I are using different word choice
to say the same thing.
Lower their expectations and rise to met them
right.
And when you know exactly what you’re supposed to do when the coach calls your number the game gets that much easier. Hell Adleman even made Brad Miller look good; when he left so did Brads decent performance.
If yr not happy with the results, lower yr expectations.
Brad Miller
needs to bear the majority of the responsibility of his crappy play once Adelman left please.
What we've got here is, failure to communicate. Some men you just can't reach.
i'd have
Reke, Cisco, Noc, JT, Hawes
Beno, Casspi, Greene, Landry and (JT/Hawes) off the bench and Brockness as an X factor
Our bench…talk about high energy
Well...
Minutes is pretty much the biggest carrot you can dangle in front of young, inconsistent players to get them to improve. It’s worked for Greene. And benching seems to work for Hawes as he tends to play better the game after losing minutes.
That said, there’s a big danger with using this strategy as it can also undermine confidence when used too much or too suddenly and without explanation. PW just has to a better job of walking that fine line.
Reke, Cisco(if ready),Greene, Landry, & Hawes
If Cisco is not ready then Reke,Omri,Greene,Landry & Hawes. Omri & Greene are not 2’s but I’d rather have Omri at the 2 than Greene. I don’t think Landry & JT will work.
I love beating dead horses.
can't have Landry/Hawes together
rebounding would be TURRIBLE
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
The last two years
Spencer has been a better defensive rebounder than JT. This year he’s dropped a bit, and I think its mainly due to all the inconsistency with his playing time. Still, he’s not much worse than JT at rebounding, and he’s much more consistent on defense and offense.
Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order and Originator of the "Brock Ness Monster".
Besides, even with Hawes rebounding being down 1 this year
the team as a whole is averaging 4 more rebounds than they did last year. So, rebounds aren’t the most critical stat for our centers.
"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
The greatest impact player in NBA History - Tim Donaghy
I mentioned this in another post
Westphal has a team of young guys that is 10 deep at least. He needs to decide who is gonna start, but feel free to play all 10.
I think Greene, Casspi, and Evans all need to start. I think Landry, Cisco, Beno, Noc and Thompson need to come off the bench. That leaves Hawes and Dorsey to start. Dorsey doesn’t have to play much, just start.
If Evans go out, Beno and Landry go in. Those are your bench scorers. They can be a crazy pick and roll combo.
Hawes needs to start and get the ball ran through him early, and to have some size and rebounding around him, hence starting him with Dorsey.
Evans needs to practice cutting off the ball and getting the pass from Hawes while Casspi and Greene stretch the defense.
Everyone needs to work harder and smarter on defense.
Another flaw in the human character is that everybody wants to build and nobody wants to do maintenance. Vonnegut
by Ice_9ine on Feb 23, 2010 11:23 AM PST via mobile reply actions 1 recs
Nice Ice
I am also inteested in seeing what Dorsey can do. Whatever PW does he needs to stick with it. I understand the tinkering in the first 1/2 of the season but he has to know what he has by now & if he doesn’t that is inexcusable.
I love beating dead horses.
Realistically, he could have a 10 man rotation,
split time for 3 quarters, and then roll in the 4th with your best guys.
But the key is that for 3 quarters everyone needs to know how much they are playing. If you are Joey Dorsey and you know you are only getting 12 minutes, you are gonna play within your game and do what you do, instead of trying to earn more minutes.
If you are Jason Thompson and you know you have 25 minutes to work with, you learn how to control your fouls (in theory) and not worry about being a low-post scoring threat.
If you are Cisco and Beno and Landry and Noc and you know you are gonna get 30 minutes off the bench with the same crew, you focus on making a run playing against the bench and not gunning for every shot (Noc) or worried about how you fit in with everyone (Landry) because you know who you are playing with.
If you are Casspi and Greene you know that you can both play together, you know to pick your spots on the floor and not compete against each other, and run some semblance of an offense instead of trying to impress the coach or fire up the fans on every outing.
Another flaw in the human character is that everybody wants to build and nobody wants to do maintenance. Vonnegut
My turn, Now it's Yours
That seemed like it was Westphals mantra in the beginning of the year. One game Casspi would play 35 minutes and Greene would be a DNP-CD and then the next game, Greene would play 30 minutes and Casspi 10. It may not have made sense but it seemed that the players understood that if they didn’t play much one game that the next game they would get plenty of time.
For the past few months though, it seems that PW is trying to get every player in the game every game but some players, like Hawes, are not having any games where he will get 30+ minutes. I think it is starting to discourage them and they are looking over at the bench expecting to be pulled out after every turnover or missed assignment.
Kings rule! (They are royalty - right?)
The season is a loss at this point
Let’s see a consistent starting 5 of the players we’ve drafted to be starters. Reke, Omri, Donte, JT, Hawes. With Landry, Brock, Cisco and Beno coming off the bench. The young kids need to play together consistently if they are going to grow. Noc and Udoka don’t need to be playing at all at this point in the season and I’d like to see what Dorsey is all about.
The goal and objective - consistency
The only problem has been that players used to know that if they played consistently they would get more minutes. They would get 10 minutes of burn a game and if they played well they might start the next game or play more, getting 20 – 30, or at least keep those 10 minutes.
This was working pretty good until PW benched his own strategy. You had Donte’ go off at PF and score several really high scoring games only to lose minutes and his starting spot. You had Sean May come in with a really sweet shooting stroke to hit jumpers only to lose his 10 minutes a game. Spencer came out playing better defense than he has ever in his life and then lost his starting spot and get limited minutes.
The whole strategy of letting the cream rise to the top of the milk and dish out minutes to those performing could have worked great. It seemed to bring out the best in a somewhat inconsistent team, but it has gone of the rails.
It's a 2 way street. I think a lot of teams decide that a guy is going to play even if he isn't playing well because he's the only real answer (like at C)
Most of the time, the team has a set rotation and only a few guys to work in. The problem with this team is that the Kings have literally had a very different roster this year from last and it’s made it difficult to stick with a certain lineup. I think the Kings problem is that they too much depth that is redundant, and I think you’ll see a change next year in that. They will pare down the bench talent somewhat and see what they have in certain guys. (I’m pretty confident of that.)
I think that if Spence is complaining about minutes, he needs to be more consistent. PW would love to find Spence more minutes if he was more consistent. Spence maybe was more consistent last season, and the team stunk. I don’t really think that’s a correlation, and I would rather see Spence/Landry get the minutes starting for the rest of the season. Bring JT off the bench, and do it that way. That’s me.
Tinkering is great and it has it’s moments, but I think PW is in danger of losing his rotation talents to frustration if he doesn’t figure it out very soon.
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
I'm not sure Donald Sterling is a human being. He had to have been manufactured by someone, possibly David Stern, so that one team could solely just make profit for the NBA while doing nothing good for themselves. -- Aykis 16
One bad rotation shouldn't cause a line-up change
Or even one or more games. These are young guys on a not so great team.
Patience PW, patience.
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
by lietothegirls on Feb 23, 2010 11:51 AM PST up reply actions
I think it's a mental thing.
And there is a double standard. There are people who get mad at his somewhat set rotations when Sergio is around, and now there are the same people who want him to play other guys consistently. It is what it is.
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
I'm not sure Donald Sterling is a human being. He had to have been manufactured by someone, possibly David Stern, so that one team could solely just make profit for the NBA while doing nothing good for themselves. -- Aykis 16
Hawes has beef, May does not
Hawes should be angry about how he has been tugged around. It hurts young players mentally. I mean come on, give the guy a chance to succeed. But Sean May, b***** please, that guy would get no minutes on any team.
My 8 man rotation goes:
pg. Evans/ Beno
sg. Casspi/ Beno/Garcia
sf. Greene/ Garcia
pf. Landry/ Thompson
c. Hawes/Thompson
Garbage minutes to the rest. I put Landry over Thompson because I think he meshes with Hawes better due to the difference in playing style opposed to two similiar players starting in Landry and Thompson.
I didn't get the sense that May has a beef, especially for himself
He’s just relaying the mood of the team.
"You know what I consider mentally weak? Using your audience to settle a grudge with someone who had the audacity to publicly call you on your sh*t. The only thing more offensive is that Napear thinks we're all too stupid to see it for what it is." - TZ, Sactown Royalty
Agreed
And I agree with what he says. But, consistancy should mean 0 minutes for him (May).
by mike murray on Feb 23, 2010 11:46 AM PST up reply actions
"Paul Westphal's rotation is so inconsistent that the team is suffering from role confusion and busted confidence."
Exactly my point. This is a case of the Theus/Natt era. I suggest Westphal keep a solid line-up, or else he’ll face the wrath of a disgruntled fanbase, such as in the years prior.
Westphal had his solid line-up toward the beginning
…Then I believe he started getting creative when the team started losing. Martin threw a big ol monkey wrench in his line-up. Since then, this whole thing’s just been one big avalanche.
I understand it to be a necessary part of a new coach getting to know his personel
and the fact that some of the pieces were misused,underused and under-coached by the past regime(s). Which makes it doubly hard to know what you’ve got and where it fits together as far as first, second units and subs go. Now throw in the guys via the trades and your back nearly to square one. I don’t envy Paul with this and SURELY will not second guess his rotations any more than his substitutions. I would expect more of this from here forward rather than less as this year logically being a “see what ya got and what you need” season, going forward into FA and the draft.
Sound the trumpets, Raise the drawbridge, and drop the Oldsmobile
Who are the team captains now? Was Martin the captain before?
It would be hard to pick a dependable vet on this team, but I would have to vote for Beno as captain.
Beno needs to call a team meeting.
Another flaw in the human character is that everybody wants to build and nobody wants to do maintenance. Vonnegut
I'd say Cisco
but PW may have undermined him the last few games.
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
by lietothegirls on Feb 23, 2010 11:53 AM PST up reply actions
Captain and President of the Pine.. :P
Sound the trumpets, Raise the drawbridge, and drop the Oldsmobile
by Balky Needs on Feb 23, 2010 11:57 AM PST up reply actions
Right. But he'll be a coach someday if he wants it
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
by lietothegirls on Feb 23, 2010 11:59 AM PST up reply actions
Aside from Evans (and Landry by his play in Houston),
who amongst the following group has separated himself from the others: Udrih, Garcia, Casspi, Greene, Nocioni, Hawes, Thompson, Brockman, Dorsey, Udoka, May, McGuire. I could make a case for removing the last four guys from that list, and you would still be left with a 10 man rotation.
I suppose the interesting prospect would be to open a thread and have everyone list out their starting 5 and primary 3 off the bench. My bet is that there would be a lot of variations, and therein lies the challenge of this ballclub.
Put another way, I think that we have a lot of guys that 6-8 guys, but not a lot of bonafide NBA starters (not yet, anyway – time will tell with a few of the youngsters). The roster isn’t deep – it’s wide (no offense, Sean).
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
"Do these purple trunks make my butt look big" -SM
Sound the trumpets, Raise the drawbridge, and drop the Oldsmobile
by Balky Needs on Feb 23, 2010 11:56 AM PST up reply actions
I think you have a great idea! Start a lineup thread!
It would be interesting to open a thread to have everyone list out their starting 5 and primary 3 (or 4) off the bench. I agree with you that there would be a lot of variations, but it would be interesting to see as a group what we would come up with.
I agree with your assessment of Evans and Landry as separating themselves from the group. I would also include Greene, but as to what position he should play, I am not sure.
To be the best, you have to do your best. Otherwise, you are only second-rate.
I'd say that makes the point though
If we have 9 or 10 rotation guys, 7 or 8 of which are interchangable talent-wise, Pick your basic starting line-up and stick with it in most cases while subbing in the rest.
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
by lietothegirls on Feb 23, 2010 11:56 AM PST up reply actions
I don't disagree, but based on what?
If no one is earning the nod, how do you award minutes to one guy and not another?
If the current roster had five guys that had clearly earned the minutes, this would not be an issue. That has not happened. Hopefully, the coaching staff will see something over the final third of this season that will enable them to tighten the rotation next year.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
Section
What are the 5 best Kings lineups for +/- with counting for minutes played. In other words, I’m not talking about Sergio, Brockman, Beno, Udoka and Armstrong getting a +10 in 10 minutes. I’m talking about a weighted average.
If one can look at those top 5 lineups maybe there is a pattern that can become a starting linuep and then one where the bench players will also have a top lineup and go with with that as your consistant rotation.
Kings rule! (They are royalty - right?)
Somebody posted it, I believe its
Tyreke, Beno, Casspi, Donte’, Hawes.
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
by lietothegirls on Feb 23, 2010 12:06 PM PST up reply actions
OK
If that’s true, then that’s your starting lineup.
Bring in Cisco at the 1, Udoka at the 2, Nocioni at the 3, Landry at the 4 and JT at the 5.
Sounds fine to me. Maybe take out Beno at the 6 minute mark for Cisco and keep Tyreke in until the final 2 mintues and then sub Beno back in for him to keep Udoka out of the lineup.
Kings rule! (They are royalty - right?)
Weighted Average
It means that an average of vote of 6/10 by 100 people is more reliable than an average vote of 8/10 by 5 people.
Kings rule! (They are royalty - right?)
When starkly reviewed
My opinion is that there are way too many mitigating factors that impact + / -. I have seen way too many games where a guy plays like crap and winds up a +6, while a dominant player is a -7. If you are logging a lot of minutes for a bad team, you are always going to have a bad + / -. If you are the worst starter on a good team (Derek Fisher, hello!), you are probably going to have a good + / -.
As I have said before, + / – is to statistical analysis what the coach of the year award is to awards. And I know that I am in the minority on this one – the stat is posted in most box scores, so it must appeal to most people.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
I agree completely
As far as a single player statistic. I don’t look to +/- one bit as a player stat. exactly because of just what you said. However, I am not willing to completely rule out the statistic when it comes to a five man lineup. Yes, bad teams will have a bad +/- stat more than a good one but the TOP +/- statistic for a 5-man lineup could be very useful, and here is the kicker, if given enough time to quantify it.
Obviously if a 5-man lineup has played 5 minutes together, there is no way in hell that you can count that as being a suficient enough time to rate that group, however if that group has played together for over 100 minutes I think you can start seeing if that group is of any value. Again it has to be weighed against other groups on that team. Look at the top 5-man lineups in the NBA. I can’t get to it right now, but I remember seeing Boston, the Lakers and Oklahoma City up in the top 5 or so. When I looked at all the Kings’ lineups I can see how many minutes they have played together and what their +/- is but I couldn’t find a way to “weigh” that average against other lineups. In other words, if a lineup only played 5 minutes it would be given a bad overall “weighted average” even if the +/- was very good.
All I am saying is that a +/- WEIGHTED average could be very interesting to see when used for 5-man lineups. Maybe not, but I would like to see it.
Kings rule! (They are royalty - right?)
It would be interesting -
Of course, if you were dealing with a team that had suffered a lot of blow outs, you’d have to figure out a way to extract garbage time. Oddly, the Kings have not had a ton of garbage time this year, in spite of the mounting losses. Last year’s team, though…yeeesh!
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
Its thier job to make these decisions
commit to them, live with them and convince the players to as well. I’m not saying you never switch out Casspi with Donte’ or Beno for certain game matchups but surely some consistancy is possible.
Right now the kids (Casspi and Donte esp.) are wondering if they’re not starting/playing because they’re shooting too much – or too little. Or things like that.
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
by lietothegirls on Feb 23, 2010 12:04 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I think it's easy
You know for sure who isn’t part of the long-term plan – Nocioni, McGuire, May, Udoka, and Dorsey (may be a question on this one).
Part of the longer term plan are Beno, Reke, Donté, Cisco, Landry, Hawes, Thompson, Casspi and Brockman (may be a question on this one as well).
I’ll say that Brockman and Dorsey even each other out on the potential side.
That means you are splitting 240 minutes of potential court time between 9 guys (and I’d say closer to 8 because of Brockman/Dorsey), or about 27 to 30 minutes each. Maybe Reke gets 35, so you reduce Cisco/Beno by 5 to 8 minutes.
But none of these guys should be doing 30 minutes one night and 10 the next IMO.
"You know what I consider mentally weak? Using your audience to settle a grudge with someone who had the audacity to publicly call you on your sh*t. The only thing more offensive is that Napear thinks we're all too stupid to see it for what it is." - TZ, Sactown Royalty
by otis29 on Feb 23, 2010 12:04 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Yes,
Just scratch May, McGuire, Udoka and Noce (since it seems no one will take him anyway) and go from there.
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
by lietothegirls on Feb 23, 2010 12:08 PM PST up reply actions
Judging from our lineup suggestions
we are having the same difficulty as PW :-)
Everyone wants a more consistent rotation, but not many people agree on what that rotation should be.
True. But we don't necessarily agree with each other.
We each come up with a rotation. And it’s not our job. It is his job.
My recollection is that Kevin Johnson told us to expect this from Coach Westphal. He would leave his players and the fans scratching their heads a lot. And the players are the ones who do have to establish their merit to be on the court. Nevertheless, there is a certain Alpha Beta mentality about the NBA that tweaks everyone when it is not established. And the results of late (the worst team in the NBA sans the Nets) speak for themselves.
Lower their expectations and rise to met them
What the hell? Kings are going the wrong way!!!
Everything that looked so good in the first month, now looks like crap. Players were all buying into PW’s ways in the beginning and now there is mutiny. There is a PROBLEM when players speak out against the coach and program. I can only hope things get straightened out by season’s end.
Lastly, the Kings gave up a starter (kev) for another bench player (Landry). They need to get another quality starter this summer…….This SUCKS…
I'm not sure I see where anyone spoke out against
the coach. I think someone just spoke. For example, Landry said the atmosphere, vibe, chemistry, whatever on the team is good. I would hesitate to read too much into May’s comments, which if he sees have been taken this way he would probably regret.
Lower their expectations and rise to met them
Exactly
May didn’t speak out against the coach. The quoted text is just part of what he said, and may give a wrong impression. Here’s another part (bold by me):
Coach is probably going insane just trying to think of things to help us out, but it’s extremely difficult," May said. "And you can see it with guys coming in and out of the starting lineup – especially J.T. (Jason Thompson) and Spencer, and how they’re up and down. It makes it tough.
I don’t think it’s so much the issue of choosing the lineup, but more an issue of choosing a lineup, and sticking with it. Only if the players know what is expected of them (what their role is, and how much they’re expected to play, in general) they can be held accountable for how they execute that role. I think May stated it quite well, in fact.
Dunking Dutchman
I think it's pretty clear 7 guys should get consistent playing time
Starting 5 *until Garcia is healthy:
Evans
Greene
Casspi
Landry
Thompson
Then
backup PG: Beno
big man: Hawes
Then after that, I could care less, there’s a wealth of swingmen and bigs to use according to the situation.
offense (May/Noc)
defense (Udoka/Dorsey/McGuire)
ballhandling (Garcia)
rebounding(Ness)
Really only Noc and Garcia are legit rotation players within right to complain,
but they’re behind younger and better players. Everyone else should cherish the PT they do get.
It's not just the starting line ups, it's the in game rotations too.
I said that I didn’t like the lack of consistent minutes and players like Donte having to play multiple positions. And, I was shot down by those who said PW needed to learn about his players, or he had no other choice because of injuries, or that he was being successful finding someone to perform so shut up.
When I complained that the Kings looked confused, that multiple players were doubling the same player at the same time, that players weren’t picking up the correct man in transition, when the rotations came slow or not at all, and the ever present poor spacing on offense, I was told that this is to be expected on a young team. When PW started Brockman over Hawes, I questioned the reason, for starting a 2nd round PF over the only true center on the team, and was informed that PW was just trying to win games, which never came about.
This is suppose to be a rebuilding year. You need to let your core players, learn and play thru adversity. When a young player is having a problem, you don’t sit him and try someone else, how does that develop anyone. Pookey, who’s opinion I think very highly of, said
I think that if Spence is complaining about minutes, he needs to be more consistent. PW would love to find Spence more minutes if he was more consistent.
But how does one become more consistent. Do you force yourself, is there some exercise you can perform, is it simply some mental technique that you apply, no. This is not a chicken or egg paradox, this is being taught the correct proceedures and practicing them in real life during real game.
Final thoughts from my High Horse. If a guy isn’t scoring the way you want, as a coach you can call a play to get him an open look. We’ve all heard the comment about how one basket can get a guy started. When a guy isn’t getting rebounds, the coach can get someone to help box out the other players best rebounder to free up your man. And, when a group isn’t performing up to your expectation, teach them what their doing wrong, and stop trying to fix a team offense or team defensive problem by rotating in one or two new guys.
"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
The greatest impact player in NBA History - Tim Donaghy
by HighTops on Feb 23, 2010 12:59 PM PST reply actions 10 recs
I agree with all of this
Well said HT.
"You know what I consider mentally weak? Using your audience to settle a grudge with someone who had the audacity to publicly call you on your sh*t. The only thing more offensive is that Napear thinks we're all too stupid to see it for what it is." - TZ, Sactown Royalty
+1
I was thinking the same way in the Phoenix post game thread a few days when I wondered about Spence’s minutes and the general no rhyme or reason to the rotation in that game and was also poked at by people with stuff like “well if you knew the answer you would have a job as a head coach” etc.
Anyway, glad I am not the only one as apparently the team feels the same way. I will post my 5 + 3 outside of this reply.
by OrangeLazarus on Feb 23, 2010 1:07 PM PST up reply actions
THANK YOU!
I have been wanting to say this but just didn’t know how to. Great job HT. I think that’s what many people on this site are meaning but just aren’t saying is as clearly as you just did.
Rec’d!
Kings rule! (They are royalty - right?)
Agreed
Shouldn’t a professional coaching staff have a decent idea of what they have by this time of the season (Landry/Dorsey potentially excluded) and how to maximize it? Follow the Memphis example- these are my core guys, so I’m sticking with and working to develop them.
We'll ride the spiral to the end and may just go where no one's been.
I have to admit that sometimes it has looked
like the line-up and/or rotations have come as a reaction to the scatter-blatter on this site (somehow not meaning anything negative by that).
So, I will tentatively kind-of somewhat more or less agree with High Horse Tops I guess, for now.
Lower their expectations and rise to met them
While I agree there is more to consider
I want to acknowledge that the way PW was handing things earlier in the season was understandable given extremely inconsistent play. He absolutely had to pull some players from the floor for crappy play. The fact that we have few players who truly qualify (talent-wise) as starting NBA players is perhaps important to note.
That said, players who played better got more minutes earlier in the season, but that doesn’t seem to be how it works now…. PW should have settled on a roster by now and hasn’t. That tells me there will be wholesale changes in the lineup this summer and we will probably have a different starting five next year, only keeping a couple of the existing players as starting.
I think they are changing the line up around to see who stays and who goes. JT or Spence will go. It might be that some of the wing players will go, but I would like to keep Donte and Casspi. It will be interesting to see what happens.
I don't believe any of the core will leave, but they might lose their starting jobs,
If we could actually say they had a starting job. We have 1 top 10 pick and enough cap to pick up a good player to fill a hole. We have no starting SG, unless we move Tyreke in which case we don’t have a starting PG. We don’t have a backup center, unless we move JT in which case we don’t have a backup PF.
So, as I see it, we have 2 holes to fill, and enough picks and cap space to fill them. But, if we move any of the young core, it just leave another backup hole to fill.
What I like best about next years team, is their flexibility going forward. If the best player available in the draft is a big PF or Center we take him and let JT backup the other big slot. If the best player is a SG or PG, we take him and have Tyreke play the other backcourt spot with him. Then we use the cap space to flill the spot we didn’t fill in the draft.
"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
The greatest impact player in NBA History - Tim Donaghy
YES!
Coach has been pissing me off for a while now. In the Suns game our ‘stars’ , Reke and Landry played a great 1st Q. going combined for something like 7-10 w/ a bunch or assists for Reke, and a bunch of rebounds for Landry….The coach pulled them w/ a min. left in the quarter, which is fine for an added break and avoiding fouls. But they then sat for 8-9 minutes! The guys that came off the bench did play well and we kept the lead into half, but I would prefer to get hot starters back in the game asap. After the 1stQ Evans looked like he would be adding/helping his/our 20/5/5 goal, but never got hot again, even scoring 4 of his 16 in ‘garbage-time’…..My quick math after the 1stQ showed that if Evans and Landry had been given the same minutes would have ended up w/ near 30/15 and 40/20…now I know that is flawed math and reasoning, but the potential was /IS there!
HEY COACH! Consistency is needed here, there, and everywhere!
angry gus sounds angry.
Lower their expectations and rise to met them
HA! I mentioned the rotation in my weak Fan Posts weeks ago...
Consistently Inconsistent… spraining my shoulder patting myself on the back, but it’s worth it.
Hard work beats talent when talent is hardly working...
I Like How Players Playing Like Crap and Fans
are the experts in rotations. If only Theus and Natt would have read the fan post rotations, we would have been the 8th spot in the playoffs. If players played consistently, there weren’t ones coming back off injury or trades or weren’t play matador defense, maybe there would be consistency – I don’t see Tyreke complaining about his minutes.
Ron Rivera for Cal Head Coach. I'm a one man movement!
by bringbackbuddytrees on Feb 23, 2010 4:53 PM PST reply actions
You have a point, but
Theus and Natt probably would have done better had they listened to us, instead of listening to those evil little voices in their heads.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
yes yes
this is correct, Tyreke performs every night, thus he has consistent minutes. JT had consistent PT when he was playing well, then his performance fell of a cliff, and PW stuck with him for a reasonable amount of time before having to go elsewhere. If PW found a combination that actually strung a few wins together, then we would have a consistent lineup too.
The problem stems from the fact that he has a bunch of players at around around the same skill level, and the skill level is not that great.
From a fans perspective, PW cannot win this argument as if he keeps the same little rotation for 8 losses in a row then bring J Dorsey out of the cold for 15 mins and he puts up big numbers, PW is a fool for not using him before.
From a players perspective, it’s pretty much nonsense. If they want consistent minutes, they need to give consistent performance. It should not work the other way around. They have to fight for their minutes as they have not proved enough to get to that kind of leeway from the coach. Also, it’s lame that it’s May and Hawes we are getting quotes from as they might just get their wish and end of sitting in suits for the rest of the season.
Also, I do not believe it is professional in any way for players to be questioning the coach on this topic in the media. It would please me greatly to hear not another squeak from any of the players on this topic.
Why would Tyreke complain about his minutes
He leads all rookies in minutes per game by far.
"You know what I consider mentally weak? Using your audience to settle a grudge with someone who had the audacity to publicly call you on your sh*t. The only thing more offensive is that Napear thinks we're all too stupid to see it for what it is." - TZ, Sactown Royalty
i think when guys who lose their playing time because they arent playing complain you need to take it with a grain of salt.
At USC we're not snobs, we're just better than you.
First of all, PW is a terrible coach...
Regardless of this topic, PW has and always will be awful. Even in PHX, where a monkey could have coached that team to the finals, he was awful. HOWEVER, having coached for 20 years, my take on all of this is that the players need to shut up and produce. If they want to play consistent minutes, then play consistently. Force the coach to HAVE to keep you on the floor. Coaches pull guys to try and find the right combo and usually will keep the players that produce on both ends on the floor at all times [Evans for example]. But Hawes and May are erratic and mostly bad, and JT is inconsistent as well. So no surprise the minutes are inconsistent as well. BTW, when your whole team is average to below average, you don’t have a deep bench, you just have a bunch of guys that can all produce the same results – a losing record.
BTW all of this stems from a losing attitude within the team
Winners don’t complain about minutes! Trade Hawes, waive May, and bench Tyreke for showing poor leadership [Evans response should be – “shut up and earn it – don’t question the coach!”
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