Believing or Not Believing in Sergio Rodriguez
by Tom Ziller on Feb 3, 2010 10:21 AM PST
in Commentary
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PrintFor so long we as a fanbase have longed for a creative, pass-happy point guard in the mold of Jason Williams. Once Mike Bibby hit the skids (in a literal sense), the most selfless triggermen have occupied our wishes. Perhaps Rubio Love wasn't universal; it was, at the very least, infectious. Last spring, readers of this very site actually split a Griffin-Rubio vote right down the middle. The final weeks of the pre-draft hype machine twisted fate, and we ended up with diametrically different Tyreke Evans. I believe we all are contented, though I, for one, will always wonder what would have been different. (I hope that doesn't make me a bad man.)
The consolation, of course, was a different Spanish point guard: Sergio Rodriguez, acquired by trading down in the second round. The initial trade made me beam; I think I had fellow riders in the gulf stream of understated pleasure. Sergio was wasted in Portland, a fact no one disputes. A hummingbird can only make it so far in the fog. Here, under Paul Westphal, under the gavel of liberty, he could thrive.
Amid Reke's ascension and Beno Udrih's improbable rejuventation, Sergio was immediately lost. But, in his brief opportunities, he has in fact thrived. Very much so.
He's third on the team in Hollinger's PER metric, behind Evans and Kevin Martin. Sergio is seventh in the league in assist rate. Sergio sits head and shoulders above any other Kings in +/-, adjusted or raw. He has had faults -- his turnover numbers are insane (3.9 per 36 minutes), his defense is exactly as billed (decent in the passing lanes, not particularly stout anywhere else), he shoots rather inconsistently. But on the whole, looking at it all, the team has played brilliantly with Sergio on the court.
He hasn't had a negative plus-minus in a game since Jan. 12. Granted, he received DNP-CDs in a few of the games since then. But against Denver? Plus 6. Charlotte? Plus 14. Miami? Plus 2. Orlando? Plus 11. On the season, in 35 games, he's plus 110. Plus 3.14 per game. The team as a whole? Minus 182 in 47 games, or minues 3.87 per game. The Kings, they have been bad usually. When Sergio plays, the Kings are good.
I can't explain it fully, or decisively. Evans, for example, registers assists less frequently than does Sergio. But Evans and Rodriguez have similar splits in terms of what shots they assist: both do well in setting up teammates at the rim and behind the arc, which is where you want teammates to be set up. But Evans turns the ball over far less, is a better man defender and scores/shoots far more efficiently. How the team be so much better with Sergio? Is it the teammates each shares the court with? Is it those players' specific strengths and weaknesses?
The Kings shoot 55 percent (eFG) when Sergio's on the floor. The team shoots 48 percent (eFG) when Sergio sits. Is that on Sergio, or is it noise? The team assists on 59 percent of its shots when Sergio plays, and 51 percent when Sergio sits. Is that on Sergio, or is it noise? The offense is a full nine points per 100 possessions more efficient when Sergio plays than when he doesn't. Is that on Sergio, or is it noise?
I'd place varying bets on each. But the great thing is that the Kings -- Westphal, more specifically -- don't need to place bets. The team can find out if it's real or noise ... by playing Rodriguez more. Westphal has the political cover (a string of losses), and it need not come at the expense of the ongoing Evans-Martin experiment. Beno is practically a shooting guard as it is -- in those minutes in which Evans and Martin sit, try out the two back-up PGs together. Let Sergio get a shot with Evans and Martin in the three-guard line-up. Give him a whirl with each of Martin and Evans. Play him as much as is possible.
Because, to tell the truth, if Sergio's performance is more truth than noise, this is a player the Kings need to find space for. Beno has made me believe in the goodness of people again, but he's still expensive and repetitive (with respect to Evans). If Sergio can be the flashbang the Kings offense needs in spurts, then he needs to be the offense in spurts. I hope we get a chance to see this fleshed out.
Various stats used in this post came from Basketball-Reference, 82games, Basketball Value and Hoopdata.
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As a (predictably beleaguered) Warriors fan, I must say, Sergio is a guy I’ve fancied. He’s the exact kind of “buy low” guy that smart teams take flyers on, and is providing the exact kind of unheralded production that smart teams recognize as valuable. Unbelievable that a swap of second-round picks netted a guy who is, all hype notwithstanding, the best young point guard in California.
Golden State Worriers: Angst & Analysis
Not to mention, Portland is paying his salary!
"Sometimes the capriciousness of youth anesthetizes common sense." -Let Geoff's words guide our patience this season.
by AnotherStupidSN on Feb 3, 2010 10:43 AM PST up reply actions
Firstly,
I wanna preface by saying that I for one ain’t 100% sold on the idea that the best spot ultimately for Tyreke is at the point. There, I said it…
I’m not saying he can’t be a very good player at the 1 (obviously he can), but in the big scheme of things, long term, playing alongside a “pure” ball distributor (the right one, of course) could conceivably make Evans and the rest of the team a lot more effective and creative on offense. I’m talking after Tyreke’s outside game is more effective, of course.
With that in mind, yeah, I’d endorse giving Sergio significantly more minutes (whether spelling Tyreke or playing next to him).
Sergio has quite a bit of talent, and the thing with this roster is, we’re not competing for a playoff spot. We’re rebuilding and we need to develop a clear picture as to which guys are worth hanging onto, and who can do what.
I think some other contending team out there will eventually be interested in Beno, and he’s fairly expendable in the rebuilding process. But I’d be happy seeing the Kings put the spotlight on S-Rod (oops, sorry… bad nickname) for a while because in his brief flashes he seems to have the makings of a potential keeper.
"When the going gets Weird, the Weird turn professional."
(Hunter Thompson)
According to NBA.com's +/- Sergio is in 2 of 3 of the top 5 man line-ups
Sergio, Tyreke, Donté, Jon and Jason have played 9 minutes together and are +18
Sergio, Beno, Omri, Andres and Jason have played 18 minutes together and are +18
Sergio is in each of the top eight 2-man line-ups. Here they are in order:
Sergio and Casspi are +73 in 279 minuites.
Sergio and Beno are +64 in 197 minutes.
Sergio and Donté are +60 in 173 minutes.
Sergio and Hawes are +58 in 183 minutes.
Sergio and Evans are +56 in 168 minutes.
Sergio and Brockman are +46 in 153 minutes.
Sergio and Thompson are +42 in 243 minutes.
Sergio and Nocioni are +39 in 174 minutes.
The top 3 man line-ups similarly feature Rodriguez, the best being Sergio, Beno, and Casspi at +59 in 105 minutes.
So, yeah, why not experiment and see how it all plays out with Spanish Chocolate.
Another flaw in the human character is that everybody wants to build and nobody wants to do maintenance. Vonnegut
by Ice_9ine on Feb 3, 2010 10:52 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
One notable thing among these +/- stats that you list...
Sergio not only makes the team play better, but he also does so with a variety of players, not just a particular one 5-man combination.
He is good with Tyreke, Beno, Donté, Omri, Nocioni, Jason, Spencer, and Jon. No doubt he would probably be good with Martin, too. But just hasn’t had too many opportunities playing with him.
To be the best, you have to do your best. Otherwise, you are only second-rate.
Disclaimer -
Rodriguez has logged his biggest minutes when the team has been down huge and/or he is competing against the opponent’s 2nd team. I’d like to see him get some starting burn, just to see how it might impact these numbers.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
disclaimer pt 2
Sergio, Tyreke, Donté, Jon and Jason have played 9 minutes together and are +18
Sergio, Beno, Omri, Andres and Jason have played 18 minutes together and are +18
9 and 18 minutes. SSS much?
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
Ok, well, according to 82games.com, out of the top 10 most used line-ups
Only 2 rank positive in adjusted +/-
Evans, Casspi, Greene, Thompson, and Hawes is at +1
Udrih, Evans, Casspi, Greene, Thompson is at +2
82games also ranks Sergio as tops in adjusted +/- at +91 and getting 20% of the team’s total minutes. He is +10 points per 48 minutes.
Compare that to Evans at -177 on the season getting 69% of the teams minutes and being -5.9 per 48 minutes.
So, to me, the stats say the team is bad, and the +/- reflects poorly on the players that get the most minutes. It is hard to say if Sergio is really good or makes a difference until we see him play more. Which is exactly what Ziller is saying. I think it is an interesting experiment.
Another flaw in the human character is that everybody wants to build and nobody wants to do maintenance. Vonnegut
I must be missing the point here
+/- is a terrible stat, in my opinion. Look at any game, and you will find a guy that played well with a substantial -, and a guy that played like sh*t with a substantial +. It is a misleading and inconsistent statistic, one that stands terribly on its own.
I think that Rodriguez could be a nice player for the Kings. I also think that he ranks behind Evans, Martin and Udrih when it comes to who should be getting the minutes at guard, and that does not even take Garcia and Greene into consideration.
Keep him? Great. Play him? Fine. But you better figure out who you’re going to get rid of. Otherwise, he is destined to get spot minutes behind the primary players.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
There's your lineup.
PG – Sergio
SG – Beno
SF – Casspi
PF – Greene
C – Hawes
Let them go for about 6 minutes. Perfect!
Kings rule! (They are royalty - right?)
Can you post a link to that lineup data?
Thanks in advance.
"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."
by coolcatreportdotcom on Feb 3, 2010 6:46 PM PST up reply actions
What are Tyreke's numbers when Sergio is on the floor?
Did I miss that somewhere? I need to know if Reke can be productive while SR is with him.
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
That'd be interesting to know
but we should keep in mind that Tyreke is not yet the player he’s gonna be in a season or two. When he develops his outside game a bit more he’ll be much more dynamic and dangerous, and should be an off-the-chart player as a 2 guard.
At that point how the Kings are performing as a team when Tyreke plays alongside a guy like Sergio will become very important to know.
"When the going gets Weird, the Weird turn professional."
(Hunter Thompson)
Yes, for the future
Its all about who matches up well with Reke.
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
by lietothegirls on Feb 3, 2010 12:21 PM PST up reply actions
Yep. We're lucky
to have a young player who’s special enough to build around.
"When the going gets Weird, the Weird turn professional."
(Hunter Thompson)
That is a very good question and would be interesting to know.
Since Sergio’s minutes have primarily been with the bench players and the garbage detail, there haven’t been a lot of minutes with Tyreke. It would be very interesting to have Sergio start with Tyreke so your question could be answered.
To be the best, you have to do your best. Otherwise, you are only second-rate.
Sergio and Hawes are +58 in 183 minutes.
Sergio, Tyreke, Donté, Jon and Jason have played 9 minutes together and are +18
Another flaw in the human character is that everybody wants to build and nobody wants to do maintenance. Vonnegut
Sergio and Hawes would be an amazing pick and roll combo
and Sergio and Donte could be kinda fun in that respect too
www.mancancook.net
I believe
He deserves more time on the court at the very least.
"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."
by coolcatreportdotcom on Feb 3, 2010 11:45 AM PST reply actions
Spanish Choclate
I really hope we trade Beno and all his ridiculous backup PG money away. Sergio really knows how to run the second unit and his passing is contagious. Not to mention he meshes so nice with Mr. Potential, Donte Green. Donte is really good at moving with out the ball, and everyone knows that if you move without the ball, Sergio will find you. He is the prefect backup PG at the perfect price. I would trade Beno for a second round pick in 2032 if it meant dumping his salary, same with Noc. Th trade post said we will have $12mill going in the off-season, imagine have around $25mill and really not being that far way from a contender! If I really want to piss everyone off too, I kind of like the Ray Allen for KMart swap, which would save us anther $12mill, and we would still have all the young pieces that had us sitting at .500 after 30 games. I know that some people say that it was because of an easy part of the schedule, but i guess that means we had no easy part last year when we won 17. I know its just a pipe dream, but getting rid of KMART, noc and Beno for expirings and having around $35 mill of cap room with a nice first round draft pick coming seems like the best scenario to me.
And do what exactly with that cap room?
How do you attract a good FA without talent? I’m speaking of Km here, I’d be fine with moving Noce or beno for expirings, especially Noce as Beno provides solid back-up at both the 1 and 2 spots.
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
by lietothegirls on Feb 3, 2010 12:24 PM PST up reply actions
By process of elimination. Players still want to get paid, along with wining. With all the big names this off-season domeboday would bite strictly for the money. I like kmart though and I would be happy if they could just get rid of beno and noc and had $25mil. I just can’t remember any teams winning a championship with two dominant scorer’s in the backcourt.
by elSAVinator on Feb 3, 2010 12:34 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
To me
…this will essentially lead to the kings holding another bad contract. This is assuming that we have to pay to get someone here. Martin is well priced for his production. We are better off keeping versus any trade rumor I have seen.
He is a good value I just get so sick of him at the end of games trying to draw fouls. He did it all last year and he did it the other night. Just take your shot with confidence and if you miss it, you miss it. Refs put their whistles in their pockets at the end of games and your not going to get the call. I wish we could trade KMart for Bynum. Perhaps Bosh to Lakers, Kmart and Thompson to Raptors, and Bynum and the Lakers 1st rd pick to the KIngs.
FA SG this summer
Joe Johnson, Manu, TMAC, Ray Allen, Mike Miller, Redd (if his legs work), Wade, Korver, Raja Bell. Plenty of options if we find a good deal for KMART.
I agree with you and you make a very good point about Kevin Martin
As you point out, the team needs to have talent to attract a good FA. Kevin Martin has high value around the league. He is just the kind of player that is important to have to bring on other top players. Tyreke is great, but there needs to be more pieces for someone to feel that it will be worth their while to come to Sacramento. Afterall, we want to attract some really good talent.
I am also in agreement with moving Noce or Beno, with the emphasis more on Nocioni. Beno is still an important piece for us.
To be the best, you have to do your best. Otherwise, you are only second-rate.
Sergio is Ricky Rubio minus the hype
Question for me is if Tyreke is NaPG then is he better suited playing with a “pass first” pg or a scoring pg like Bibby, Mo williams, or even Beno? Joe Johnson seems to be doing well with Bibby. He is a 2 that handles the ball a lot. Same with Kobe & Fisher. Maybe IF Tyreke is not a pass 1st gaurd it would be best to have a quick defensive 1 with good ball handling & a decent 3 point shot. Something like a Doug Christie(I know still NaPG)
I love beating dead horses.
by allbenji's on Feb 3, 2010 11:49 AM PST via mobile reply actions
when I think "pass-first"
I do not think Bibby, Mo Williams or Beno. I wouldn’t think Tyreke would excel next to a “pass-first” pg because he excels with the ball in his hand.
I do not believe there is a stat that tracks this, but the benefit of Tyreke playing with another combo gaurd like Beno seems to be the team pushes the ball more and gets into the offense earlier. I guess pace would track that assuming that getting into the offense earlier leads to taking shots earlier.
i think in reality there are very few "pass-first" point guards.
and i don’t think you can characterize Tyreke as a “shoot first” point guard. I would think more of a “drive to the hoop first” point guard.
Could some of you maybe use a condom once in a while?
I think you read this wrong
He said a “pass first” point guard OR a scoring PG like Bibby, Mo Williams, or even Beno.
"HARK! BUT LOOK OVER HERE, IT'S A COST CONTROLLED COCO CRISP! DOES MY USE OF ALLITERATION HYPNOTIZE YOU?" (PL78)
by CaliforniaJag on Feb 3, 2010 1:43 PM PST up reply actions
meshing talents
I wonder if Tyreke might be a hybrid type, look at the Bulls they never had a pure point they had Ron Harper, Steve Kerr and John Paxon amongst others.
Its about finding players who can compliment the skills of your better players
I wonder if Sergio might be a change of pace or match up player, he looked great in the first half against Denver but in the 2nd half he wasn’t as effective. Then again the all of the Kings looked bad in the 3rd quarter. Sergio and possibly Spencer might be the best players who look to move the ball or can see the court best, Tyreke will get better hopefully in this regard
If the Kings bigs played better interior D, Sergio would be a better defender, Bibby is a better defensive player with Atlanta now that he has Josh Smith, Al Holford et al to guard the rim rather than Brad Miller and Vlade
This
Sergio might be a change of pace or match up player,
is what I think. Though I don’t imagine Sergio will ever be a even a decent defender, there’s no sign of it developing. Atlanta is able to cover for Bibby because they are so athletic everywhere else. He sucks on D.
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
by lietothegirls on Feb 3, 2010 12:28 PM PST up reply actions
Ziller, I am so happy that you wrote this article on Sergio.
Not only is it timely, but it also shows the importance of giving Sergio an ample opportunity to show what he is made of. As you show, Sergio’s stats are compelling enough for people to pay attention. We would not want to have such a potential talent fall through the cracks. Worse, to have him traded away and learn of his true value too late. Far better to have Portland kick themselves.
As you indicate, “Sergio sits head and shoulders above any other Kings in +/-, adjusted or raw” and “…the team has played brilliantly with Sergio on the court.” You do not have to explain it, but as you say, “When Sergio plays, the Kings are good.” The numbers don’t lie. Trying to understand why this is so may take longer to explain.
As you also point out, Sergio got lost in the shuffle, with attention placed on other players in the spotlight. I only hope that Coach Westphal and his assistants begin to give Sergio the opportunities to play more often. If they do not already know all the information that you delineated, they should. Perhaps your article will make its way into the hands of the coaching staff.
Thank you for this most timely, informative, and interesting piece.
To be the best, you have to do your best. Otherwise, you are only second-rate.
I really think the offense needs to be run through Spence
& Tyreke. Doesn’t Spencer play a lot better when that is the case? I see a lot of Vlade in him. Why waiste his talents? Give the ball to Spence & teach Tyreke to hit some back door cuts. Could you imagine Tyreke getting a perfect pass in the post? He would really be unstoppable.
I love beating dead horses.
by allbenji's on Feb 3, 2010 12:13 PM PST via mobile reply actions 1 recs
(almost) flagged
for another ill-advised Spencer/Vlade comparison.
No offense, albenji but I’ve been encouraging more realistic comparisons for Spencer fans to aspire to.
Rik Smits maybe?
"When the going gets Weird, the Weird turn professional."
(Hunter Thompson)
Brad Daugherty or Andrew Bogut on the high end
Nenad Kristic on the low are the comperables I like.
Daugherty and Bogut were both better than Hawes at age 21, but were similar types of players (good passers, intriguing skills, bad rebounders).
Free Omri...trade.Noc.
Bogut's a fantastic defender too. Top 5 in the NBA I'd say.
UNLESS that underground cavern was a David Thorpe run training facility. The problem of course, is that players really need to play in NBA game situations for them to develop well. So a league of cyborgs needs to be built along with a regulation-sized stadium and tons of fake fans to simulate real NBA games to develop the players. Though at this point the team is spending billions of dollars to develop those players, so you know… maybe it would be smarter to just wait. -- Iashwash
Spencer has a ways to go on that account.
"When the going gets Weird, the Weird turn professional."
(Hunter Thompson)
And JT even more.
But no question in regards to Spence.
UNLESS that underground cavern was a David Thorpe run training facility. The problem of course, is that players really need to play in NBA game situations for them to develop well. So a league of cyborgs needs to be built along with a regulation-sized stadium and tons of fake fans to simulate real NBA games to develop the players. Though at this point the team is spending billions of dollars to develop those players, so you know… maybe it would be smarter to just wait. -- Iashwash
Daugherty was very talented.
but at least this is potentially somewhat realistic. (Hopefully Spencer will avoid the comparison in terms of being plagued by on-going injury problems that shorten an otherwise promising career).
"When the going gets Weird, the Weird turn professional."
(Hunter Thompson)
Yes, please I'm not saying he'll be as good as those guys
If you look at the spectrum of possibilities, the best case is Daugherty/Bogut worst is Krstic; the likely case of course is somewhere in between. Daugherty/Bogut are very good players.
I haven’t seen enough of Bogut to say he’s that good of a defender. I do know Tyreke torched him to win a game this season though. :-)
I was more trying to get a feel for what Hawes might grow towards and what kind of players would compliment his game. Presuming of course he keeps developing.
Free Omri...trade.Noc.
Right!
I agree with that, For3. Comparisons are always a bit dodgy but yours is much better than most. And definitely an upgrade over the Vlade mismatch that gets tossed around here once in a while.
Spencer is virtually nothing like Vlade, especially in terms of strength and inside presence.
"When the going gets Weird, the Weird turn professional."
(Hunter Thompson)
i don't remember daugherty but very different player than Bogut
Could some of you maybe use a condom once in a while?
I think the best comparison for Spence's game is Brad Miller
"I make love to pressure" - Stephen Jackson
The team averages between 90 & 100 possessions a game, one more playmaker won't hurt
variety & less predictability is good, plus players do need to rest. And, I’d rather have at least 2 creators on the floor every possession than having only 1 that teams can focus their defensive attention.
"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
The greatest impact player in NBA History - Tim Donaghy
Yes, the team has become very predictable.
Having two creators on the floor would help to mix things up.
To be the best, you have to do your best. Otherwise, you are only second-rate.
I can't wait until the summer and Sergio is gone.
He’s not worth the effort to get all up in arms over.
UNLESS that underground cavern was a David Thorpe run training facility. The problem of course, is that players really need to play in NBA game situations for them to develop well. So a league of cyborgs needs to be built along with a regulation-sized stadium and tons of fake fans to simulate real NBA games to develop the players. Though at this point the team is spending billions of dollars to develop those players, so you know… maybe it would be smarter to just wait. -- Iashwash
i must admit, if we are going to not be able to (or don't want to) trade Beno, i wouldn't mind the Kings use him as trade bait with K9
Could some of you maybe use a condom once in a while?
by wallywagon11 on Feb 3, 2010 12:29 PM PST up reply actions
would you rather combine K9 with Andres or Beno?
Another flaw in the human character is that everybody wants to build and nobody wants to do maintenance. Vonnegut
absolutely
You don’t think the Kings have already tried that?
Could some of you maybe use a condom once in a while?
So, your answer is....
I’m gonna assume Nocioni.
Realistically, Beno, Andres, and even Cisco are looking less like the future. Too bad they have such generous contracts. Fortunately, Petrie and the Maloofs only can be blamed for 2 of those.
Another flaw in the human character is that everybody wants to build and nobody wants to do maintenance. Vonnegut
oh sorry
i thought you were saying (i) Sergio or (ii) Andres or Beno. If I had to pick Andres or Beno i would actually prefer Beno only because Sergio just has two years left on his (and that last year is a strike year)
Could some of you maybe use a condom once in a while?
I don't get that
outside of plain ol’ “pookey-going-against-the-grain”-ism.
I mean, what’s the downside to hanging on to Sergio? He may not turn out to be all that, but he’s certainly shown some glimpses of having considerable upside. At worst he seems like a nice back-up point, and at best… who can say at this point?
23 years old. Good size, excellent passing skills. Plays for cheap. What’’s not to like?
"When the going gets Weird, the Weird turn professional."
(Hunter Thompson)
Kiss my ass.
I ain’t going against the grain.
UNLESS that underground cavern was a David Thorpe run training facility. The problem of course, is that players really need to play in NBA game situations for them to develop well. So a league of cyborgs needs to be built along with a regulation-sized stadium and tons of fake fans to simulate real NBA games to develop the players. Though at this point the team is spending billions of dollars to develop those players, so you know… maybe it would be smarter to just wait. -- Iashwash
You ain't?
OK, that’s fine, pookey. So what’s the reasoning behind you “can’t wait” until Sergio is gone?
A comment like “I can’t wait until Beno’s contract is off the books” I could understand.
“I can’t wait until Omri Casspi brings peace to the Middle East”, OK, I could get behind that.
But Sergio has virtually zero downside right now. Wishing him off the roster ASAP seems a trifle, I dunno, “contrarian”.
"When the going gets Weird, the Weird turn professional."
(Hunter Thompson)
Beno's contract doesn't come off the books until 2013.
I’m not looking 3 years down the road. I haven’t gotten that far yet. I am thinking, however, about this summer and in 2011 when the Kings are most likely to make a move. Beno will still be on this team then, too.
Sergio has no downside to his play I agree. What I disagree with is that he has any upside either. He is what he is. And what he is is not something this team, in my estimation, can afford to keep around long term. 3rd PG’s are nice when they are cheap, and Sergio is not likely to be that (or willing to accept it) for the Kings next year and beyond.
I get why people like Sergio. He looks like a solution in often confusing times. I just don’t agree, and never will. If and when I’m wrong, so be it. Won’t be the first time, or the last.
Just don’t sit here and label me bullshit.
UNLESS that underground cavern was a David Thorpe run training facility. The problem of course, is that players really need to play in NBA game situations for them to develop well. So a league of cyborgs needs to be built along with a regulation-sized stadium and tons of fake fans to simulate real NBA games to develop the players. Though at this point the team is spending billions of dollars to develop those players, so you know… maybe it would be smarter to just wait. -- Iashwash
Sorry, pook.
no offense intended. I think we both know that I don’t consider you “bullshit”. On the contrary.
"When the going gets Weird, the Weird turn professional."
(Hunter Thompson)
No of course not.
UNLESS that underground cavern was a David Thorpe run training facility. The problem of course, is that players really need to play in NBA game situations for them to develop well. So a league of cyborgs needs to be built along with a regulation-sized stadium and tons of fake fans to simulate real NBA games to develop the players. Though at this point the team is spending billions of dollars to develop those players, so you know… maybe it would be smarter to just wait. -- Iashwash
He may be worthwhile right now.
You never know. He deserves more play time to see if he is worth more investment anyway. If they can move Beno, and yes that is a big IF, it seems to me that they could definitely use Sergio. He seems to give the offense a shot of adrenaline.
Actually..
I was thinking of it another way. Beno is IMO a SG and not a PG. If we just operated with that assumption we could have a doable lineup…
PG: Evans, Sergio
SG: Martin, Beno
SF: Greene, Casspi
where is Cisco?
Another flaw in the human character is that everybody wants to build and nobody wants to do maintenance. Vonnegut
My question exactly.
UNLESS that underground cavern was a David Thorpe run training facility. The problem of course, is that players really need to play in NBA game situations for them to develop well. So a league of cyborgs needs to be built along with a regulation-sized stadium and tons of fake fans to simulate real NBA games to develop the players. Though at this point the team is spending billions of dollars to develop those players, so you know… maybe it would be smarter to just wait. -- Iashwash
Wait a sec
Beno is NaPG?!
Never forget: I am a complete idiot
by Exhibit G on Feb 3, 2010 3:21 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I believe his QO next year is $2.3M, making the total team salary $44M in guaranteed contracts
"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
The greatest impact player in NBA History - Tim Donaghy
More minutes for sure
What I like about Surge is that he looks for EVERYONE to be involved. Even K9 received passes for scores (woof). This keeps the defense more honest, and with his squirrely penetrations (eew), it opens up the cutters and slashers. One problem is that Kings fans were spoiled by Webber, or rather his hands. Shock/Hawes/Brocktimus don’t all know that he can get them the ball, and are too often clumsy (mishandles & travels) or too damned excited to get the ball (JT) that they don’t convert. (Not hating, just calling as i see it. How do they get better? More time, seasoning, and tough love from coaches)
At the beginning of the year, with the projected 15-27 wins most expected, turnovers were mentioned little. With a very young team and little time to gel, turnovers in the upper teens can be expected. Surge CAN play like Rubio (to a degree) and many of us were salivating over a pass first pg that wasn’t known for defense or scoring (yet). We ended up getting something better, and got SR10 for almost free. Since most agree that Evans/Beno are 1.5 guards ,and Speed is 1.8, why not let them have more time at the 2, with open looks, movement, distracted defenses, etc?
As Westphal has shown, it is often about the matchups. There are times when Coach has rotated players differently, and used different weapons, and that is what Rodriguez can be.
He is cheap, effective, young, and so far has shown little ego (almost all of the kings have shown this, THAT makes me happy as a fan). The games (even losing ones) are more entertaining when he is in (more scoring, circus atmosphere) and that can translate into ticket sales (ala JWill). While he is faaaar from untouchable, why would we want to let him escape?
Kings - 2011/2012 Champions
Glad you brought it up...
What if we ran Sergio, Kevin and Tyreke together? I was thinking about that the other day and the thought of it intrigued me. I have no idea if this would work, but why not try it and/or the other Sergio combinations TZ mentioned- not much to lose (except games, which we’re already doing quite well!).
From what I’ve seen of Sergio, he’s definitely a tempo changer- likes to push the ball and get moving, which to me is a good thing. His court vision is also excellent. He does have weaknesses as TZ pointed out, but I definitely think he is worthy of consistent burn.
We'll ride the spiral to the end and may just go where no one's been.
The Kings did that in the last Denver game.
It was horrible. Sergio brought the ball up. Beno and Martin went and stood in opposite corners, and the 2 bigs dropped down to the baseline leaving Sergio out top to break down his man off the dribble. It was the same old 1-4 Flat only with another ball handler.
Sergio makes plays because the other players know he’s going to pass the ball if they get open. They move and cut and Sergio gets them the ball. Sergio gets the ball into the paint for lay ups, Tyreke and Beno penetrate and kick the ball out for long 2’s and 3’s. That’s why the Kings need Sergio more than Beno. Beno is a PG in the same vein as Tyreke, and a shooter in the same vein as Martin. Sergio is something we don’t already have 2 of.
"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
The greatest impact player in NBA History - Tim Donaghy
HighTops, have you ever seen the video breakdowns of Knicks games from 7secondsormess?
Because i can’t help but think you would have the talent to pull that off.
Could some of you maybe use a condom once in a while?
Have KM, Sergio and Tyreke had any time together?
I know Kevin has missed a lot of games so the opportunities for those three together have been limited. Don’t recollect the three of them being together on the court for any length of time, but I don’t remember what I had for breakfast today, so take my memory with a grain of salt!
We'll ride the spiral to the end and may just go where no one's been.
I have wondered the same thing.
It would be very interesting to see Sergio, Tyreke, and KM together. I do not recall them being together either. If they were it must have been for a very short period of time. The possibilities with them working together are very intriguing.
To be the best, you have to do your best. Otherwise, you are only second-rate.
combinations
The more Sergio the better the combos as he would learn where guys like to get the ball, who has better hands etc.
What e
"My rhymes are so potent that in this small segment, I made all of the ladies in the area pregnant. Yes I know sometimes my lyrics are sexist, but you lovely bitches and hoes should know I'm trying to correct this." -Jermaine
by kangsfan on Feb 3, 2010 1:17 PM PST via mobile reply actions
Sorry, this will be the last time I post from my damn iPhone.
Sergio is just too eratic IMO for this team right now. I don’t know if that’s his fault or his inexperience but the last thing this team needs is more turnovers and if you play him more, you will get more
"My rhymes are so potent that in this small segment, I made all of the ladies in the area pregnant. Yes I know sometimes my lyrics are sexist, but you lovely bitches and hoes should know I'm trying to correct this." -Jermaine
by kangsfan on Feb 3, 2010 1:22 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Martin & Tyreke already lead in turnovers,
and Beno & Sergio have almost the exact same a/to ratio. If Sergio had more PT working with the starters, the KIngs TO’s per game would go down.
We have more TO’s by our bigs each game than by Sergio. It’s because Tyreke and Beno give up the ball and the Bigs have to create their own shot. If the players work to get open, Sergio will get them easy baskets. I rather Sergio try to make a couple spectacular plays a game that turn into TO’s, then watch JT dribble into the paint and loose the ball on a spin move.
"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
The greatest impact player in NBA History - Tim Donaghy
by HighTops on Feb 3, 2010 1:46 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Think SR's a/to ratio would improve
If the bulk of his minutes came with the starters?
If the players work to get open, Sergio will get them easy baskets. I rather Sergio try to make a couple spectacular plays a game that turn into TO’s, then watch JT dribble into the paint and loose the ball on a spin move
Exactly right. Sergio is very good about delivering the ball in the right place at the right time, so teammates know that if they work to get open they’ll get the ball.
We'll ride the spiral to the end and may just go where no one's been.
You lost me
Beno and Sergio have similar assist/to ratios, which leads you to conclude if Sergio played more we’d have less turnovers?
Sergio’s TOV% is 20.3, easily the worst figure of any of our guards. (Tyreke 12.9, Beno 13.7, Kevin a phenomenal 9.1 (in limited time)). For every 100 plays Sergio makes, fully 1/5 of them turn into turnovers.
Sergio’s TOV% is also significantly higher than JT and Hawes. I don’t see how you can make any reasonable case playing him more would lower our team turnovers.
Free Omri...trade.Noc.
You make an important point, HighTops about the turnovers...
Everyone seems to talk about Sergio’s turnovers, but as you pointed out Martin and Tyreke already lead in turnovers. The thing about Sergio, when he makes a turnover, it is often a very memorable one that sticks in our mind. When someone else makes a TO, it is often less spectacular and less memorable. Both are turnovers, but Sergio ends up being thought of as the turnover king.
To be the best, you have to do your best. Otherwise, you are only second-rate.
You should consider using the Turnover% stat
rather than raw turnover totals, and see what that tells you. I linked basketball reference in the post above yours.
Free Omri...trade.Noc.
Turnover% is a guess as to how many to's per 100 possessions
because Sergio has the least amount of minutes played, this aver is multiplied by a much higher number than say Tyreke or Beno.
And, it assumes that with more playing time his performance would stay the same and not get better. I used the same type of math to show what his assists would be if adjusted for 40 mpg in my post below. Neither takes into account whether he would get better with PT or whether the team would learn to work better or worse with him.
Percentages can be hughly affected by minimal raw data. Thru 41 games JT & Spence scored at the rim at a 59% rate. Howard was 72% and Horford was 74%, so therefore those two players were considerablly better than Spence & JT. But, if Spence had made 9 more baskets out of his attempts and JT had made 16 more, they both would have been in the 70% range. So, I tend to look at bulk numbers after I isolate what I’m looking for by using %’s. I get a truer picture that way.
"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
The greatest impact player in NBA History - Tim Donaghy
by HighTops on Feb 3, 2010 4:35 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm fairly aware how percentages work
I don’t know how many minutes you need to consider the sample size big enough. Over the 3000 minutes in Sergio’s career his TOV% is 22.6, so you can actually argue he’s gotten better this year.
As for the massage you do looking at raw numbers, if it makes you feel better, who am I to stop you, but saying you get a truer look may or may not be true. This statement is just terrible though:
because Sergio has the least amount of minutes played, this aver is multiplied by a much higher number than say Tyreke or Beno.
The average is not higher because Sergio has played less, just like Kevin’s 9.1 reading isn’t lower because he played less (note I stated Kevin’s number was based on a small sample in my initial post). The fact these guys haven’t played a lot of minutes doesn’t make the average higher or lower, but it does make the statistic less significant. Significance is very important when doing analysis.
I love all the work you do on the site HighTops, and I’m really not trying to be a jerk. But I just cringe when I see some of the conclusions or inferences you draw from data sometimes and feel the need to say something.
Free Omri...trade.Noc.
by ForThree on Feb 3, 2010 5:09 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
trade bait?
I’m not really sure what to make sure of the numbers but if, in fact, it does turn out to be just “noise” maybe we can perhaps make another team who can use a “productive” backup pg into thinking there’s more to it and try to get someone valuable for the Kings in return. Even possibly shopping him around with another player?
I forget sometimes
this is his fourth year in the league, probably because sometimes he plays (in some ways) like it’s his first.
He started 13 games last year and averaged 15 minutes a game – so a look at those stats might give us a clearer indication of what to expect from him this year (barring progress).
His overall +/- was -7.3. They were 8-5 in games he started. They went 9-6 in games he played over 20 minutes. Compare that with their overall record last year of 54-28 and you get an ehhh… feeling.
Bottom line: let’s hope his numbers so far this year reflect real improvement and not a statistical blip.
"I hate all sports as rabidly as a person who likes sports hates common sense."
-H.L. Mencken
not saying we all need to jump on the sergio bandwagon ...
but i am just pointing out that Sergio was not a good fit for that Blazers team last year. I am basing this solely on my biased perception but the Blazers seemed like one of the slowest teams in the league last year and McMillian would jump all over Sergio for any mistake.
I really really want to jump on the Sergio bandwagon but I am a bit worried that we, as passionate fans desperately looking for positives, might be focusing a bit too much on finding a savior for all our problems. That being said, seems like the statistics are backing up Sergio so I would at least like to find out the hard way whether or not there is any value in them.
Could some of you maybe use a condom once in a while?
by wallywagon11 on Feb 3, 2010 2:00 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Good points
And they confirm my own impressions of McMillian’s Blazers. He seems to excel in high risk high reward offensive sets – so let’s hope PW doesn’t simply play him, but makes sure that he plays under circumstances where he can display his strengths.
"I hate all sports as rabidly as a person who likes sports hates common sense."
-H.L. Mencken
Sergio lineups
I really like it when Sergio plays with Brockman and Udoka and any two others. Udoka becomes more of a featured scorer in this lineup and has had a lot of productive spurts. They all pick it up a notch because on paper it looks like a weak lineup.
The energy tends to be contagious, and whoever else they share the floor with also tends to look for their offense more. I’ve seen those three play effectively with Casspi, Tyreke and even JT to name a few.
"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."
by coolcatreportdotcom on Feb 3, 2010 2:08 PM PST reply actions
...
Udoka becomes more of a featured scorer in this lineup
No thanks.
I like:
Sergio
Martin
Greene
Nocioni
Hawes
…as a quick ball-movement, backdoor cut, old school Kings-style offense. Run through Hawes in the post or Sergio on the pick and roll. Martin and Greene are our best backdoor cutters (and Beno, but he just doesn’t fit in here), and Nocioni and Martin are the best deep shooters (most of the time).
"HARK! BUT LOOK OVER HERE, IT'S A COST CONTROLLED COCO CRISP! DOES MY USE OF ALLITERATION HYPNOTIZE YOU?" (PL78)
by CaliforniaJag on Feb 3, 2010 2:18 PM PST up reply actions
I agree with playing Sergio with Martin and Beno rather than Tyreke
I think you can give him some time with that at the end of the first through most of the second and see how it goes.
But I would trade Nocioni for Casspi and move Donté to the 4 spot. Better shooting and defense.
Another flaw in the human character is that everybody wants to build and nobody wants to do maintenance. Vonnegut
If you take the players Sergio plays best with in 2 man line-ups
then your line-up would be Sergio, Udrih, Casspi, Greene, and Hawes. You could put Martin in for Udrih.
Another flaw in the human character is that everybody wants to build and nobody wants to do maintenance. Vonnegut
Not much defense in that lineup
Which is where Udoka helps out.
But Kevin and Sergio played very well together the other night in that second quarter run.
"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."
by coolcatreportdotcom on Feb 3, 2010 6:51 PM PST up reply actions
Who helps out the Bigs, and gets us more open 3pt shots?
Assist totals are important but where the assists occurred is more important. According to HoopsData.com,
Player At-Rim Inside-10Ft 10-23FT 3PT TotMin
Sergio, 50, 9, 17, 36. 472
Beno, 66, 19, 49, 41, 1334
Tyreke, 70, 19, 47, 71, 1552
Sergio had 112 assts in 472 mins.
Beno had 175 assts in 1334 mins.
Tyreke has 207 assts in 1552 mins.
High percentage shots inside 10ft and high TS% shots from beyond the arc.
Sergio 84.8% of his total
Beno 72% of his total
Tyreke 77.3% of his total
Assts at the rim % of Total
Sergio 44.6%
Beno 38.4%
Tyreke 33.8%
Adjusted for 40 minutes per game
Sergio would aver 4.2 at the rim, 2.2 more inside the arc, and 3.1 from 3pt range.
Beno would aver 2.0 at the rim, 2.0 more inside the arc, and 1.2 from 3pt range.
Tyreke would aver 1.8 at the rim, 1.7 more inside the arc, and 1.8 from 3pt range.
So, if you want High Percentage Assts. Sergio will help our bigs more and get us more 3pt shot. Tyreke doesn’t help the bigs as much because he finishes almost 60% of his own shots at the rim, but he does get almost 50% more 3pt assists than Beno in the same amount of mpg. And Beno is a shooter and not a playmaker so; he’s going to get you less assists across the board.
"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
The greatest impact player in NBA History - Tim Donaghy
by HighTops on Feb 3, 2010 3:21 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Nice work!
Here’s your next assignment- using your above stats (adjusted to 40 minutes per game if it’s easier), how many more points per game would SR’s production translate in to, assuming this could be calculated.
We'll ride the spiral to the end and may just go where no one's been.
Where did that info come from?
Another flaw in the human character is that everybody wants to build and nobody wants to do maintenance. Vonnegut
82games has an interesting statistic on assist to bad pass ratio. Guess who of our 3 point guard leads it?
Sergio gets 3.2 assists to each bad pass (how they measure that I am unsure about.)
Beno gets 3.6.
Tyreke quite awesomely gets 5.0 assists per bad pass.
The same site is similar to hoopdata in that it shows Tyreke’s assists being slightly more common to 3 point shooters than the other guys as well.
Another flaw in the human character is that everybody wants to build and nobody wants to do maintenance. Vonnegut
Great Stuff Z
I think the main thing is to play Sergio in 5-6 minute spurts. It seems that once he gets tired or gets too many possessions the starts to get carried away and becomes stupid Sergio making stupid plays and turning the ball over. I am not sure if that is because the defense of the opponents start to adjust to the different style that the Kings are playing or if it’s completely on Sergio.
Kings rule! (They are royalty - right?)
Agree
And if you look at minutes played, every King seems to have a sweet spot. Go under that, and they don’t get enough burn to get in the rhthym of the game. Go over it, and their performance suffers.
"The basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime. Not an all-star, or a bunch of all-stars, but a superstar."
by coolcatreportdotcom on Feb 3, 2010 6:54 PM PST up reply actions
Crap, now I am confused, buried in conflicting stats and well stated opinions
that I don’t know what to think about Sergio. My feeling has been that the only reason he’s here is that he’s a free player and given the Maloof’s financial situation last summer was too good of a deal to pass up. I personally think that Sergio is the classic role player who’s weaknesses are shown the more minutes he plays. He can be great in limited minutes and I can’t deny that he seems to fire up whoever he’s put in with.
I still think that Beno’s contract is pretty close to untradeable despite his rebirth this season and the closer we get to the 11-12 seasons and/or a potential lock out and a dramatic player salary contraction the more unlikely it is that Beno gets traded until he becomes an expiring. The same can be said for Cisco, my guesstimate (and isn’t that all we’re using here) is that if Beno and Cisco aren’t traded by this deadline that we are going to have them on the roster for a few more years at least.
In the end, even if Sergio actually and consistently brings something of value to the team he is still a better trade piece than Beno is and if I’m right then we are only renting his production for this season. If that is correct (who knows) then he isn’t a significant piece going forward and as such shouldn’t get many minutes this season. Aykis brought up a good point earlier this week and to paraphrase “we still don’t know if the increase in production is from Sergio’s play or that when he comes in the Kings start to push the pace again.”
"I make love to pressure" - Stephen Jackson
Sergio the Enigma
It is really sort of amazing, that Sergio this 3rd PG, playing off the bench, a relative unknown, and leader of the garbage detail is getting this attention and is the subject of ongoing discussion. That you should feel confusion is understandable. He has quickly turned into an enigma of unanswered questions about his potential to this team. Hopefully, we will have an opportunity to see the answer to these questions this season through more meaningful playing minutes, so that he can be adequately assessed.
To be the best, you have to do your best. Otherwise, you are only second-rate.
You know what I like about Sergio?
He runs.
by White Brocklate on Feb 3, 2010 10:45 PM PST reply actions
Sergio needs confidence
Sergio is playing better when he is 15 minutes or more on the court. He didn’t have any confidence in Portland during four seasons, so he need to feel he is somebody on this team. When he plays 15 or more minutes: 11.4 points and 5.5 assists in 23 minutes per game and all the plus/minus staff. Didn’t he really deserve at least a chance in the backup spot? Beno, who plays 30 minutes whatever he does on the court, is 12.4 points and 3.9 dimes in 30 minutes. Sergio at least deserves three or four games playings 25 minutes whatever he does. He deserves the chance.
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