A study in trade value

The Asinine Trade Threads and random other trade threads have gotten a variety of different deals thrown every which way.  Martin and other stuff for Bosh...our long-term contracts for expiring deals...our expiring deals for long-term contracts...etc.  It seems there are many different views on the actual value of players and their contracts.  This is a look into the value I think these different kinds of players and their contracts have.

This scale starts with the most useless, and works its way up to the most useful.  Each level includes four categories:  player quality, contract length, and dollar amount.  I'll try to cover a lot of the category combinations, but there are too many possible combos to cover them all.  Obviously this is my own interpretation, and that's why it's a FanPost; discussion is welcome.  With that said, let's get started.

Worth negative value in trade and zero draft pick compensation:

Level 1:  Bad player, long-term deal, high dollars.  Example:  old school Adonal Foyle, Jerome James, and Eddy Curry.  There really aren't any of these right now, but they're horrific when they do show up.  AVOID AVOID AVOID.

Level 2:  Bad player, long-term deal, average dollars.  Example:  Luke Walton, Matt Carroll, DeSagana Diop.  This kind of player is the worst one for trading:  they're not very good, they're expensive, and they're signed for several years.  They're usually worth negative value in trade; that is, a Level 1 player plus Player A for a player worse than Player A.

Level 3:  Average player, long-term deal, high dollars.  Example:  Elton Brand.  This type of player is worth negative value in trade negotiations due to the high dollars and years remaining of his contract.  They're usually older players who used to be worth big money, but have declined into average-ness and their contract doesn't fit their performance anymore.

Level 4:  Bad player, long-term deal, low dollars.  Example:  Renaldo Balkman, Dahntay Jones.  Worth slightly negative value in trade because of the years; though he's not pathetically bad, Dahntay Jones isn't worth having on your roster for four years, even if it's at $2.5 mil a year.  They're still worth more than Level 1, 2, and 3 players, though; the Lakers would trade Luke Walton for Renaldo Balkman in a heartbeat, and so would the Sixers with Elton Brand.

Worth zero in trade, or a late 2nd-round pick in draft compensation:

Level 5:  Average player, long-term deal, average dollars.  Example:  James Posey, Andres Nocioni, Kirk Hinrich.  This type of player is worth pretty much zero in trade negotiations.  If a team offered a conditional 2nd rounder for the player, both sides would win; the team with the player gets to get out of the player's contract but gets pretty much nothing.  Likewise, the team getting the player gets an average player, but in return has to take on the contract.  It's pretty much a wash.  Adding a player like this to a trade can sometimes be seen as a negative value; it depends on if the team is trying to cut long-term payroll.  For example, the Sixers might consider Dalembert for Kenny Thomas and Armstrong, but if we tried to get them to take Nocioni we'd have to take back a crappy contract.

Worth slightly positive value in trade, or a 2nd-round pick in draft compensation:

Level 6:  Average player, long-term deal, low dollars.  Example:  Thabo Sefolosha.  These players are usually worth slightly positive value in trade negotiations.  Diamonds in the rough...young players with upside...veterans that still perform well and got multiple years for some reason...they usually fall here.  Worth more than a Level 5 players simply due to the lower dollars, but worth less than a Level 7 due to the fact that they're not a sure thing, and could easily become a Level 4 if they're ability declines at all.

Level 7:  Bad player, expiring deal, low dollars.  Example:  Hilton Armstrong, Sean May, etc.  There are tons of these in the league.  They're worth slightly positive in trade, but not much, since the team taking the player isn't able to clear much cap space and is getting a bad player in return (obviously bad is subjective).  There are TONS of these in the league...Fabricio Oberto, Jamaal Magloire, etc.  Pick a team, and they've probably got at least two of these.  They've often veterans signing for the veteran minimum, or young guys that didn't pan out and are on the last year of their deal.

Level 8:  Bad player, expiring deal, average dollars.  Example:  Kenny Thomas, Adam Morrison, Jerome James.  These players are worth positive value in trade.  They're expensive enough that the team is getting significant cap relief in the offseason in exchange for something of value, but not so expensive that you won't have any relatively low-value players to be able to make a deal.  For example, Kenny Thomas makes similar dollars to a guy like Dalembert, so there's something there.  If you're dealing with a monster expiring contract, the other team will have to find $20 mil in salary to send you, and that's likely worth more than the EC itself (unless your team is broke).

Level 9:  Average player, expiring deal, low dollars.  Example:  Sergio Rodriguez, Shannon Brown.  These players are worth positive value in trade, but not a whole lot.  They're "fliers":  players that haven't really proven much or don't have much upside, are relatively cheap, and aren't signed past this year.  These are the type of players that get thrown into deals a lot.

Worth solid positive value in trade, or a later 1st or early 2nd-round pick in draft compensation:

Level 10:  Bad player, expiring deal, high dollars.  Example:  Larry Hughes.  Not worth the money, but it goes away after this year.  They're worth positive value in a deal simply because their contract is like a cash-out card; simply wait until the end of the year and they're gone.

Level 11:  Average player, expiring deal, average dollars.  Example:  Tyrus Thomas.  Worth positive value in trade.  These players are also good fliers; they may have upside, or they may just be there to give you cap room.  Either way, better to have an avearge player and clear a little less cap space in exchange for the upside of potentially uncovering a guy worth keeping.  I'd say Tyrus Thomas is worth a little bit more than Larry Hughes even though Hughes is worth more in expiring money simply because of the chance Tyrus Thomas breaks out.  Levels 10 and 11 are almost equal.

Level 12:  Average player, expiring deal, high dollars.  Example:  Tracy McGrady, Ray Allen, Shaquille O'Neal.  These are strictly salary dump players; if you trade for one of these guys, it's because you want to make a serious run at free agency the next season.  If you trade for a Level 13 or 14 it's because you want the player himself.  Worth less than a Level 13 or 14 because you don't have to give up as good of players to get them, meaning they're worth less positive value in trade.  Worth more than a Level 10 or 11 because they clear more cap room and potentially more bad contracts.  Worth solid positive value in trade.

Level 13:  Good player, expiring deal, average dollars.  Example:  David Lee, Marcus Camby, Brendan Haywood.  This is usually a young player looking to get paid or a middle-aged player looking to rehab his value on an average-priced one-year deal.  They're worth less than a Level 14 in trade because they clear less salary if they leave than a Level 14, and are usually slightly worse players due to the fact that a Level 14 wouldn't be paid like he is and still be a good player unless he was a better player than a Level 13 (USUALLY).  Worth solid positive value in trade.

Level 14:  Good player, expiring deal, high dollars.  Example:  Amare Stoudemire, Carlos Boozer, Joe Johnson.  These are usually players entering free agency for the second time.  They're not quite stars, so they're not guaranteed to be awesome for years to come.  They are, however, very good players.  If you trade for one of these guys, like a Level 13 or 15, you're either banking on the guy to stay, signing him to an extension immediately, or trading for him as a rental.  Worth more than a Level 13 because they're slightly better players.  Worth solid positive value in trade; they'd be worth significant positive value instead of just solid positive value if there wasn't a chance they'd be a rental.

Worth significant positive value in trade, or a 1st-round (likely lottery) pick in draft compensation:

Level 15:  Good player, expiring deal, low dollars.  Example:  Rudy Gay.  This is usually a young player looking to get PAID.  They've outperformed the dollars their rookie deal was worth, and now they're looking for the big money.  Obviously worth more in trade than a Level 10 or 11 since you're dealing with a good player, but the risk factor is high due to the fact that if you can't lock him up, he's gone. Worth significant positive value in trade.  These players are extremely difficult to trade for unless you're trading another Level 15 or higher in the deal.  Teams don't usually trade for players like this unless they're 100% sure they're locking them up; you'd hate to give up significant assets, including probably your own Level 15 or higher player, unless you were getting a sure thing.

Level 16:  Good player, long-term deal, high dollars.  Example:  Al Jefferson, Andre Iguodala, Pau Gasol.  Worth significant positive value in trade.  Usually a good, young player making a lot of money, but putting up numbers to support it.  Can be worth more than a Level 17; all "good" players are not created alike, and theoretically the players making more money are better players.  However, if all else is equal I'd rather have a Level 17 due to the lower salary but similar performance.

Level 17:  Good player, long-term deal, average dollars.  Example:  Kevin Martin, Emeka Okafor, Devin Harris, Andris Biedrins.  See Level 16; good players making solid money.  Can be worth less than a Level 16.

Level 18:  Good player, long-term deal, low dollars.  Example:  Tyreke Evans, Stephen Curry, etc.  These players are usually young players that haven't hit free agency yet; it's simply a matter of time before they get a massive raise.  However, they're worth more than a Level 16 or 17 because while they're IN LINE for that raise, it's not going to happen for a few years, and those few years of cheap, great production are worth more than the same number of years of expensive, great production.

Stars; worth an assload and a half, or a top pick and more in draft compensation:

Level 19:  Stars with expiring contracts.  Example:  LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, etc.  These players usually aren't available; however, in rare cases their teams will look to move them for a huge haul simply because they're not sure they can retain them (BOSHHHHHHH).  These guys are GOING to get max deals...any player that won't get a max deal probably isn't a legitimate star.  Their teams have little reason to feel compelled to deal them before the deadline, as they can sign and trade them in the offseason and give them the extra year.  It's usually not worth pursuing, as they'll cost your entire team full of prospects to get them, but for some teams it's worth it.

Level 20:  Stars with long-term contracts.  Example:  Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant, Dwight Howard, etc.  I was going to say all stars were created equal, but thought better of it.  Still, stars are stars regardless of contract.  Kevin Durant at $5 mil sure looks awesome, but I'd rather have Kobe on my roster, at least for the short term.  If you want to nitpick and say contract matters for star-quality players, go for it; I don't think it makes a whole lot of difference since Durant will either get his Dwight Howard-like contract or join Level 19 when he reaches the final year of his deal.

I'd like to add three notes to this piece as well...

Note 1

I had trouble designating players with two years remaining on their contracts.  They're not really long-term contracts, as they expire after next season, but the fact that they don't expire after this season makes them worth less in trade than expiring deals.  Honestly, they're hard to value.  If none of the categories in this piece seem to fit players with two years remaining on their deals, that's why.  Use your best judgment and figure out where you think they should go.

Note 2

The subject of Bird Rights makes trade value in the NBA a little more complex.  With stars, it completely reduces the risk of trading for one of them, as they're going to make max money, and they're going to want that extra year.  For players that aren't going to get max deals (Hedo Turkoglu), the sign and trade makes their value a little more tricky.  They CAN just sign somewhere else, or their team can work out a sign and trade.  It's not a sure thing either way, and that makes it more difficult to figure out the value of a player like this.  This really only applies to good players with expiring contracts.

Note 3

I've added possible levels of draft pick compensation for each section of compensation (the bold type).  Please let me know what you think.  Thanks!

Hopefully this will help people gauge value as we head down the stretch to the trade deadline.  Let's hope the Kings can add another piece without giving up too much.  Questions, comments, constructive criticism, and analysis welcome.  Thanks guys!