These 15 teams that have invested heavily in statistics have combined to win 59.3% of their games this season. The 15 teams without such analysts have won 40.7% of their games, and only three—the Phoenix Suns, Utah Jazz and Atlanta Hawks—are on pace to make the postseason.
almost 2 years ago
Aykis16
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NERDS!
By the way, I didn’t see a list of teams in that story…did I miss it?
Am I the only one who noticed that Tom Zook gave his bank account number to an anonymous person over the phone?
by otis29 on Mar 12, 2010 9:11 AM PST reply actions 6 recs
They didn't list all the teams
Which is a shame, because I would like to see what crappy teams hire statistical guys.
Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order and Originator of the "Brock Ness Monster".
That would have been interesting to see.
To be the best, you have to do your best. Otherwise, you are only second-rate.
otis you may be old but you remember good shit.
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
I'm not sure Donald Sterling is a human being. He had to have been manufactured by someone, possibly David Stern, so that one team could solely just make profit for the NBA while doing nothing good for themselves. -- Aykis 16
by pookeyguru on Mar 12, 2010 5:09 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Hmmm...
And one of those 40.7 % teams are the Kings, right? I think I saw someone mention it in one of the previous threads about the FO being behind the times.
Seriously.
It is a little surprising that a guy as smart as Petrie hasn’t got someone dedicated to ferreting out useful minutiae that may be gleaned from this kind of OCD-style analysis. In a league with so much talent, any minor advantage you can have is a benefit.
Rocks are free, and slingshots easily stolen.
I agree
If they aren’t, it’s a traveshamockery. I’d think the outlay of cash for an advanced statistical analyst would pay itself off in short order.
Am I the only one who noticed that Tom Zook gave his bank account number to an anonymous person over the phone?
Maybe Petrie does his own calculations
It’s not rocket science
Actually
Some of this stuff is pretty advanced. Maybe not quite rocket science, but when you’re trying to valuate players that do or could cost you millions of dollars, you’re going to get into stuff that’s a little more advanced than “per 36 minute” stats.
Am I the only one who noticed that Tom Zook gave his bank account number to an anonymous person over the phone?
A lot more advanced
Like recording deflections, NaAssists, all that kind of stuff. Where players assist the ball, who sets the most effective picks, probably more stuff than I can think of.
Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order and Originator of the "Brock Ness Monster".
And that's fairly basic stuff for these guys too
Those things are just other simple things to record that NBA stat guys don’t. Are there are any sites that have this info? I’m really interested to look at Tyreke’s assist stats. How many potential assists he had if other guys hadn’t missed, how many hockey assists, etc.
www.mancancook.net
Theres nothing out there like that available publicly yet
The best we can do with assists right now is see where assists came from. Here’s a great article on a new way to look at assists: http://www.hardwoodparoxysm.com/2010/03/10/nba-hd-adjusting-how-we-measure-and-view-assists/
Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order and Originator of the "Brock Ness Monster".
If you look at the full spreadsheet on the bottom
Tyreke’s weighted Assist Per Game is 5.5 compared to his APG of 5.4 Not much of a difference. Steph Curry’s weighted is 5.6 to his 5.4, Jennings is 6.3 to his 6.1
Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order and Originator of the "Brock Ness Monster".
Its a matter of time.
It takes a lot of time to accumulate and interpret a lot of stats for a lot of players. I am sure Geoff is busy with a lot of other things. Someone else can do the work then present them for Petrie to use when he is making important decisions.
To be the best, you have to do your best. Otherwise, you are only second-rate.
I really think Jason Levein is doing our advanced stats
After the drinks, I hooked up with a slew of NBA-related folks for a dinner for around 30. I can’t even list everyone who was there, although in my general vicinity were Henry Abbott and Kevin Arnovitz of TrueHoop, ESPN.com NBA editor Royce Webb, the NYT’s Howard Beck, ESPN PER guru John Hollinger, super-trainer and ESPN.com columnist David Thorpe, Kings assistant GM Jason Levien, Draft Express founder Jonathan Givony and ESPN’s Marc Stein — who was a good sport during our panel when Rob King and I picked him out of the crowd as an example of whether scoops matter. I knew some and had never met others. I had the chance to chat with all of them, and — again with the theme of the weekend — all couldn’t have been more friendly to talk with.
From Dan Shanoff’s Blog written March 9th 2010
Even if Jason Levein isn’t our stat guy his attendance probably shows that the Kings are at least looking for someone.
I doubt he is our stat guy
He is a lawyer and an ex agent and there is no public mention of him being involved in analysis or statistics. The articles wen he was signed talked about his expertise with buyouts.
by mayfieldcol on Mar 12, 2010 12:12 PM PST up reply actions
It isn't talked about much but listen to this interview
He has attended the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference for the past two years, and discusses last years conference. He also talks about his scouting responsibilities, and says he looks at some data and statistics.
Interview found here between Levein and Kos.
Definitely should hire TZ. Rec'd.
“Tom Ziller for King’s Statistical Analysis Department Manager!”
Another flaw in the human character is that everybody wants to build and nobody wants to do maintenance. Vonnegut
I'd like to submit my resume for "Assistant Statistical Department Manager"
“No, no, no. You’re the Assistant to the Statistical Department Manager”
www.mancancook.net
Stats are good.
It is useful to know if the other team is out rebounding us, making more points in the paint, having fewer TO’s in a game. We all know that. Certainly, at half-time, game strategy and adjustments are made often based on the stats in a game.
The question is: Are teams becoming better for hiring statistical analysts or are the better teams more likely to hire the analysts. My guess: A little bit of both.
To be the best, you have to do your best. Otherwise, you are only second-rate.
Yeah
I agree — better teams are more likely to use this sort of outside-the-salary-cap tool (like hiring more expensive coaches, building nicer practice facilities — see Dallas) to get them over the hump. But it’s hard to discount the fact that this type of work provides an advantage. Look at Houston.
Wow
Hey, I am graduating in December with a degree is statistics – actuarial science actually. Maybe I should send the Kins my resume.
Actuarial science?
Maybe you should your resumé to the Next of Kins, instead.
Rocks are free, and slingshots easily stolen.
by andy sims on Mar 12, 2010 11:18 AM PST up reply actions 4 recs
I might be the only person who laughed at this.
Another flaw in the human character is that everybody wants to build and nobody wants to do maintenance. Vonnegut
I thought it was funny, too! Thanks, Sims, for pointing it out.
To be the best, you have to do your best. Otherwise, you are only second-rate.
Actuarial science applied to basketball should be your thesis project.
Another flaw in the human character is that everybody wants to build and nobody wants to do maintenance. Vonnegut
Do it!
Go for it man! MAke sure to start reading Wayne Winston, Dave Berri, Kevin Pelton, John Hollinger, and 82games.com for a bit of a primer.
by mayfieldcol on Mar 12, 2010 12:16 PM PST up reply actions
Simmons brings this up in his mailbag but only mentions 8 teams:
You can’t argue with the results, especially in the NBA, in which only eight teams could be currently classified as number-heavy … and all of them are winning. Four are contending for a title (Denver, Cleveland, Dallas, San Antonio and Boston, although Boston’s hopes are fading into Rasheed Wallace’s belly button right now); two overachieved despite comically bad luck with injuries (Houston and Portland); and the eighth is gunning to become the first team to win 50 games with a top-four under-24-years-old (the Zombies). Eight for eight? That has to mean something.
It seems that he left some teams out to make his point about those teams winning. Although, he did leave out Orlando too, which is odd
www.mancancook.net
by vfettke on Mar 12, 2010 10:17 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
I hate to go all math major on these overgeneralized statements,
but the main premise that is missed here is that the teams that can afford to hire statisticians are the ones who can also afford to take on bad contracts to get draft picks or just flat out buy picks.
Obviously having more knowledge at your disposal is a good thing, but the bigger reason teams are winning/losing is certain teams can afford to compete and others cannot.
K9 rode out his contract here, the Franchise lasted one day in Portland (Portland is obviously the extreme). It doesn’t take a statistician to figure out why.
There now I've met the 75 word count. -pookeyguru
Eh?
So some teams spend more money than others is your premise? And this obfuscates all other causes of good play? I mean sure that could contribute, but that doesn’t invalidate the argument that playing smarter and better, by having access to advanced stats analyzed is valid as well. If you are a stats guy you should know that just cause one might be a valid cause it doesn’t invalidate the other.
I am sure that playing smarter gets more wins and it seems like access to these kinds of stats has to help. For example, maybe we would not see so many different line-ups if PW had somebody running the kinds of stats that TZ is doing on rebounding.
Or maybe
if we had a more stat heavy FO we’d win more games and be competitive sooner. Thus more money is brought in. Thus, more money is spent to keep the product good.
www.mancancook.net
True, but at the same time
those teams have a stat driven approach to guys they get. Being able to buy draft picks or take on a crap contract and get a nice piece for doing so is only helpful if the pieces you add to your competitve core are good. This is why the Rockets and Blazers are still competitive. They use their statistical analysis to build good teams. How else do you explain both teams being in the playoff hunt despite the "comically bad luck with injuries " as Simmons says. Go back to the beginning of this season and ask yourself: “Can a team whose most important pieces without Yao Ming are Aaron Brooks, Trevor Ariza, and Carl Landry compete in the West?” The answer would be no. But somehow they have in large part due to Daryl Morey
www.mancancook.net
Wait a minute here
I think that you are giving a GM way too much credit here. A GM can analzye and then sign/trade talent. How the talent then performs has very little to do with who is running the FO (generally). How about giving some credit to Rick Adelman for crying out loud. True, Daryl Morey assembled the talent but do you think that he is using his stats to influence in-game and game-to-game coaching decisions?
Personally, I do not think that this is the case. So therefore, I think that at this point the presence of Morey means nothing. After the trade deadline what more can he do other than sign the remaining castaways? The success of the Rockets once the season started is due entirely to the players and the coaching staff.
but do you think that he is using his stats to influence in-game and game-to-game coaching decisions?
It’s not out of the realm of possibilities, considering former Mavericks coach Avery Johnson took to heart some advanced stats that lead to him changing his lineups in the playoffs against the Rockets a few years ago.
I even remember the Moneyball article about Battier and how Morey would give him advanced stat sheets on the player he would be guarding so that he can force the player to lower percentage shots. So again, it’s not hard to believe that it could be true.
Fair enough
It is certainly not beyond the realm of possibility, I will concede that.
I’m a softie for RA and I just wish that he would get thrown a frickin’ bone every once in awhile, that’s all.
by Mityt on Mar 12, 2010 9:52 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
He's shrinking the definition a bit
… by classifying those eight as “number-heavy.” The other seven teams with paid stats guys (including the Lakers and Magic) aren’t seen as heavy on the advanced metrics in terms of draft/free agency/trade/coaching. But they do have those employees/consultants.
Sorry for not knowing TZ
But what did you get your degree in? In all honesty, I love reading your stuff, so I was curious about your background.
I believe it was a Bachelors in Awesome
with a Masters in Ziller Bucks.
Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order and Originator of the "Brock Ness Monster".
by Aykis16 on Mar 12, 2010 10:48 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Tom Hanks went to Sac State?
For realz?
Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order and Originator of the "Brock Ness Monster".
I did not know that.
Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order and Originator of the "Brock Ness Monster".
He did not graduate form there.
But he went there.
by mayfieldcol on Mar 12, 2010 12:18 PM PST up reply actions
Get paid a lot more to do what he already does?
If he doesn’t I’d bury him in my backyard and pretend to be Ziller.
I just hope they don’t see his face on the ZillerBucks and realize I’m not him.
www.mancancook.net
That's kind of what I assumed
that’s he’s talking abotu the really number heavy teams. Although I’m curious as to what the other teams are. He lists 8. WSJ says there are 15, but the only extra ones they add are Orlando and LA (WSJ mentions all divisional leaders, but not LA by name). So that’s Denver, Cleveland, Dallas, San Antonio, Boston, OKC, Orlando, LA, Houston, and Portland. Who are the other 5 teams?
www.mancancook.net
Pacers
Thanks, thats the one I needed.
Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order and Originator of the "Brock Ness Monster".
Well the WSJ lists the 15 stats teams as having 570 wins
And those 8 teams have 418 wins. Now the article also says that only 3 teams without stats guys are on pace to make the postseason (Utah, Phoenix and Atlanta) so that means that any team not mentioned on pace to make the postseason has stats guys. That means Milwaukee for sure, Toronto, Charlotte and Miami probably. That gives us 549 wins leaving us 21 wins left and since Ziller just posted Pacers that fits perfectly.
Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order and Originator of the "Brock Ness Monster".
Wow, you have way too much time on your hands
But not bad amigo.
The Milwaukee one makes sense too. Like the Bucks and Blazers they are totally overachieving despite an injury to a star. Plus, they have a lot of really good pieces that are cheap and contribute a lot like Delfino, Luc, and your buddy Ilyasova
www.mancancook.net
Wasn't too difficult
Took like 10 minutes. Would have been harder if TZ hadn’t mentioned the Pacers.
Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order and Originator of the "Brock Ness Monster".
I could've if I had wanted to, but it was way easier to get someone else to do it
I’m management material!
www.mancancook.net
No, you are co-management material!
Don't say stupid shit. You won’t be perceived as stupid. - pookeyguru
by Kfan in Korea on Mar 12, 2010 1:48 PM PST up reply actions
So that means the teams without a stats guy are
Utah, Phoenix, Atlanta, Chicago, Philadelphia, New York, New Jersey, Detroit, Washington, Memphis, New Orleans, Sacramento, Golden State, Minnesota. David Kahn says that great players can make a difference, but a few of those teams have great players and are still sucking. Look how Washington was thought to be top 4 in the East with Arenas, Jamison and Butler, and a more than capable center in Haywood and yet they couldn’t mesh. Chris Paul is a superstar and yet New Orleans can’t fit the right pieces around him.
Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order and Originator of the "Brock Ness Monster".
And now they're like the Kings of the immediate Post-Glory Years
Delaying the rebuilding by keeping Nash and possibly keeping Stoudemire, keeping Grant Hill.
Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order and Originator of the "Brock Ness Monster".
It's terrible
They should’ve done Nash a favor and traded him to a contender. He deserves a ring. Steve Kerr sodomized his career
www.mancancook.net
Nash probably should have stayed with the Mavs if he wanted a ring
Hell he almost won one with the Suns.
Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order and Originator of the "Brock Ness Monster".
Steve Nash needs to be in Orlando helping Dwight Howard alley-oop on every single possession.
If David Stern wasn’t evil, he would make this happen. Instead he has Pau traded to the Lakers.
Why is life so unfair?
Another flaw in the human character is that everybody wants to build and nobody wants to do maintenance. Vonnegut
Its all just a coincidence
You know why those teams are better? it’s because they have more talent.
Phil Jackson, after treatment for a kidney stone "When the anesthesiologist leaned over me, he said "We named your kidney stone Kobe because it's not passing."
Also
The teams that have them are mostly teams that have a shot at the playoffs. It makes much more sense for at team that might have a chance to go somewhere in the postseason to have someone like that, because a few extra wins really doesn’t mean too much to lesser teams in the regular season.
I could see stats like that having a larger role in a playoff series, when you play the same team 4-7 times, but not in the regular season as much.
Phil Jackson, after treatment for a kidney stone "When the anesthesiologist leaned over me, he said "We named your kidney stone Kobe because it's not passing."
by Ellimist on Mar 12, 2010 11:17 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
That's probably true to an extent.
But it is what a coach does with his talent that counts. If there is no direction, then a talented team may not play to its potential. Conversely, a less talented team could outplay a more talented team with better direction. Statistics help to point out areas of weakness, which can be used to help a team with better game strategy during a game and areas to work on in practice.
When you want to be competitive, EVERY competitive advantage helps. It could make the difference between making it to the playoffs or not playing in the playoffs. It could make the difference of winning a championship or not winning a championship.
To be the best, you have to do your best. Otherwise, you are only second-rate.
Also statistics can help in determining which good players to acquire and which players to keep or trade.
To be the best, you have to do your best. Otherwise, you are only second-rate.
by Slam_Dunk on Mar 12, 2010 11:25 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
thats exactly why I don't think the kings need one....yet
because it could make the difference between 26 and 29 wins.
As for drafting, there really are no solid formulas for predicting statistical production in different leagues.
Besides, Petrie doesn’t really need any help in that area, I think what he’s doing is working pretty good
Phil Jackson, after treatment for a kidney stone "When the anesthesiologist leaned over me, he said "We named your kidney stone Kobe because it's not passing."
I tend to agree that the Kings don't need one, yet, but they would benefit from one.
True, there is nothing significant at stake for the remaining wins this season. However, any improvement in play, would hopefully carry over to next season, as part of rebuilding.
As for drafting, there is a lot which can be done with current statistics looking at potential prospects to make some recommendations. Production of players can be plotted on graphs to give some indication of future production.
Petrie is gifted is gifted in spotting talent. Statistics would not replace that. Statistics would just be one more tool in his tool box for him to evaluate in making decisions.
To be the best, you have to do your best. Otherwise, you are only second-rate.
Would help soon though
I work with a lot of stats in my grad program and it is impressive what it can predict. While I dont disagree that right now it would probably be just a few games, those couple games make a big difference when you are in playoff contention. When that is in factor it is worth the money you pay to have any advantage.
Draft choices and trades can really be helped by doing so but only as a part of the puzzle. Slam_Dunk is right that it can be an important part of the toolbox, but it takes many other parts.
I think it depends on who your stats guy is.
Wasn’t it the Mavs stats guy that said he wouldn’t want Durant on his team? Having the wrong stats guy influencing your decisions could cause more harm than good.
Don't say stupid shit. You won’t be perceived as stupid. - pookeyguru
by Kfan in Korea on Mar 12, 2010 2:05 PM PST up reply actions
thats why it should be a part of the toolbox
instead of the main factor. Stats can be really helpful and can find trends that normally wouldnt be noticed but it is impossible to account for all the factors though. I would imagine that the arguement was that he was probably a volume shooter in Texas (guess off the top of my head) and didnt expect the needed volume would be beneficial to a team. The tricky thing with Stats is that the answers are interpreted by the person without there always being a right or wrong answer.
Drafting is part science and luck when you get into it and thats why scouts use a full toolbox. I feel that stats can be very helpful in trades and when looking at free agents though. Looking at performance in difference circumstances can help observe for a possible fit and you can look at career lifespans for free agents.
I agree with you completely with your thoughts about statistics.
To be the best, you have to do your best. Otherwise, you are only second-rate.
One of the great unreported stories of the past two seasons
Marc Gasol is Zach Galifinakis.
Life is every mammal's journey from very very wet to very very dry.
Where does that leave Pau, as Seth Galifiniakis, Zach's alter ego closet gay brother?
This is the most awesome thing I have thought about in days.
Another flaw in the human character is that everybody wants to build and nobody wants to do maintenance. Vonnegut
how would having a "stat" guy hurt an Organization?
I am a financial analyst and do not think that having too much information is every a problem. Ignorance is not bliss. It is up to the team to use the information and analytics they generate in a reasonable manner. This seems almost like a “the world is not round” argument haha.
by mbcarval on Mar 12, 2010 12:05 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
In the pocketbook?
Funny that a financial analyst would overlook that.
That's funny
But, in the scheme of things the salary for a statistical analyst would be a drop in the bucket compared to the players. In the long run, a statistical analyst could more than make up for his salary by helping the franchise from making costly decisions.
To be the best, you have to do your best. Otherwise, you are only second-rate.
No Kidding
We are paying salary to Bobby Jackson (who i love), but what do you think brings more value to a franchise. You could simply replace a current front office job with an analyst position and not lose any money. You could also outsource the research to a firm for a lower cost. I would be Slamson makes more then most analysts…
I am not really sure what point you are trying to make.
I don’t see it as an either / or situation. I wouldn’t compare the public relation contributions of Bobby Jackson to those of an analyst. Nor would I replace a current front job for one. I also wouldn’t outsource to a research firm for a lower cost.
I was basically saying that the cost of an analyst is not a significant factor in terms of acquiring one. It would be highly beneficial, IMO, that whoever they were to hire for the position be knowledgeable about basketball. In addition, that person should become integrated into the franchise culture, goals, and future aspirations. He or she needs to understand what goals want to be achieved by the coaching staff and by general management, in order to be most effective. That is probably not going to come from someone who doesn’t know a thing about basketball, crunching numbers on his computer,in an office located across the country. It would be much better if the person becomes an integral part of the management team.
To be the best, you have to do your best. Otherwise, you are only second-rate.
I am agreeing
I agree I was just taking a step back and showing that the cost of an analyst is not what is preventing the team from acquiring one.
Reply fail - to mbcarval
To be the best, you have to do your best. Otherwise, you are only second-rate.
Stats
I’m pretty sure that the Division leaders are leading their division because they all have multiple great players. I doubt that having these stat guys made the Lakers win a championship last year, or that Atlanta would be that much better if they had one this year. I could see it helping in baseball a lot more then basketball. Bottom line is, if you have 3 great players on a team, you most likely will be a pretty good team (sorry Wizards).
Yet what are the three great players on Houston or Portland?
Brandon Roy and Aldridge and ???
Yao and ???
Those teams win lots of games and it is not with three all star players.
Houston and Portland are terrible examples
Last year they had TMAC, Ming, & Ron Ron, and the years before that, Ming and TMAC weren’t both great players, they were superstars! Houston is not going to make the playoffs! Portland has a ton of talent, but not 3 great players yet. That is probably why they have won 0 playoff series. Thus not being considered a great team, but a good team! Both teams are not division leaders either, both being 4th in the respective divisions! Hou must have had to run a lot of stats on deciding to sign a 2 time scoring champ, and a 7 foot 6 beast, who would have thought??
But Houston has also overachieved this year
and they are without all three players you mentioned
www.mancancook.net
TMac and Ming were both out for the finals, TMac longer- most of last year
So, that really isn’t a valid case. McGrady only played 35 games
first off i hate i cant do everything on mobile that i could do normally
But that’s okay. What I wanna say is that advanced stats do not make any team better unless they know how to apply them. That said it doesn’t matter anyway. I’m not sure advanced stats would have helped GP & co select tyreke in the draft. That’s just 1 area where I think advance stats aren’t that helpful. God I miss my laptop.
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
I'm not sure Donald Sterling is a human being. He had to have been manufactured by someone, possibly David Stern, so that one team could solely just make profit for the NBA while doing nothing good for themselves. -- Aykis 16
by pookeyguru on Mar 12, 2010 5:16 PM PST via mobile reply actions
If anyone from the Kings organization with any clout reads this site
they would have to understand that the (Non campaigning) Tom Ziller is a stats guru. Ask NBA FanHouse and True Hoop. Most importantly he knows his stuff, he is always looking at more and better, he knows and loves the Kings, he follows all the other teams closely and he has nerd cred on the internets. Oh, and he has experience dealing with people who don’t understand a win-share from a pie chart and translating his findings to everyday fan speak.
Boy, with what the left on the table with a Larry Hughes buyout they could have themselves a bona fide stat geek. Match made in heaven.
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