Preview: Grizzlies at Kings

AN APOLOGY

... for the massive front page photo. But lord, that's an amazing photo. Cheers to you, Mark Weber, you brilliant snaphound you.

SCOUTING REPORT

HighTops has got what you need to know:

Memphis, which currently stands at 37-33, is on pace to win 43 games this season, which would be a 19-game improvement over last season. The Grizz have won seven of their last nine games and eight of the last 12. Memphis is one road win away from doubling last season’s road win total of eight. Since the All-Star break, the Grizzlies have lost only once on the road -- 7-1 -- but are just 4-7 at home.

The Grizzlies, who lead the NBA in points in the paint with 51.3 per game, have scored 50-plus from inside 44 times, 60-plus points 14 times and 70-plus points twice (both against Golden State). In rebounds per game the team is 7th at 43.3, second with 13.0 offensive rebounds per game, first in second chance points with 16.1, and third in fast break points with 17.4. Three-point shooting is the team's main weakness: Memphis is 28th in three-point shots made with 4.3 per game and 29th in three-point attempts at 12.6 per game.

Marc Gasol, the 7-foot 265 lb center from Spain, is averaging 13.9pts/9.9rebs on 60% shooting in March. But he’s missed the last three games with a partially torn neck muscle and is listed as day-to-day. But Memphis has no shortage of 7-footers with four currently on the roster. The team also has Steven Hunter, a 7-year pro who is out with a knee injury, leaving seldom-used Hamed Haddadi (26 games, 6.6 mpg) and 7-3 265 lb rookie Hasheem Thabeet.   

Thabeet, who was assigned to the NBA Developmental League’s Dakota Wizards on Feb. 25 and recalled on March 8, has appeared in five games in March. He’s averaging 5.6pts/5.4 rebs on 61% shooting, which are all season highs, and he’s averaging 1.6 blocks, all in 20 mpg. He started the March 16th and 17th games against Chicago and Houston, the first two starts of his career, and averaged 9.0 points, 9.5 rebounds and 3.0 blocks on 61.5 percent shooting in 27.5 minutes. He’ll probably get his 3rd start against the Kings if Gasol is still unable to play.

The rest of the frontcourt consists of Zack Randolph and Rudy Gay. Randolph is having one of the best years of his career. He’s averaging 20.8pts/11.9rebs on 49% shooting.  He's shooting 59% on 7.7 shots per game at the rim, and is hitting his mid to long-range jumpers with over 43% accuracy. Gay is averaging 17.1pts/5.9rebs on a season-low 43.8% from the field, but averages 2.1 assists and 2.3 steals.

O.J. Mayo and Mike Conley make up the backcourt. Conley is averaging 14.9pts/5.5assts on 51% shooting and averages 1.8 steals per game. Mayo is averaging 16.5pts/3.7rebs on 50.4% shooting.

The remainder of the rotation is made up of rookie Sam Young, Ronnie Brewer, Darrell Arthur, and Marcus Williams. Memphis got Brewer at the trade deadline from Utah in exchange for a protected first round draft pick. Utah was dumping salary and Memphis bit, but Brewer has only seen action in three games since the trade.

Williams, a 6-3 200 lb left-handed PG, was picked up as a free agent in August. The 22nd pick in the 2006 NBA draft by New Jersey is shooting at his career average of 38% with 4.6pts/2.5assts in 13.5 mpg.   

The Grizzlies selected Young with the 36th pick in the 2009 NBA Draft.  The 6-6 220 lb rookie is averaging 7.3pts/3.0rebs on 40% shooting while backing up Mayo at SG.   

Arthur was originally selected by the New Orleans Hornets with the 27th overall pick in the 2008 NBA Draft, and his rights were traded three times on draft night, eventually landing in Memphis. The draft night trades also brought Donte Greene the 28th pick of that draft by Memphis to Houston and then eventually to Sacramento in the Ron Artest trade. Arthur missed 50 games between Oct. 28 and Feb. 6 after surgery to repair a partial tear of the pectoral muscle injured during preseason. In the 19 games since his return, Arthur is averaging just 2.5pts/2.1rebs in 10 mpg.

With Gasol shooting 70% at the rim and 50% inside 10 ft, Randolph averaging 20/10 and Gay able to shoot almost 50% from anywhere on the floor, it’s hard to see the Grizzlies not dominating our frontline. If they can dominate the defensive board, they’ll have more than their share of fast break opportunities. If Westphal starts Cisco at SG again, the matchup in the backcourt could be even, which only leaves the bench as a potential advantage for the Kings. Overall, it looks like the best opportunity for the Kings is if Thabeet starts instead of Gasol or if Tyreke can make a superhuman return from his injury.

Quite a few people stepped up in the Clipper game, but the Clips looked like they shot warm-ups in their pajamas, and really weren’t ready to play. The Grizzlies are still in the playoff chase so I expect them to put up a better challenge. But, I expect nothing less from this Kings team than its very best, so may the best team from California win.

Check the comments soon for HT's Game Keys.

THE KEY BATTLE

Beno Udrih vs. Mike Conley. As HT noted, the Grizz frontline is monstrous if Gasol plays. Carl Landry can score like Randolph, but Gasol is a real bully, and given Sacramento's defensive rebounding deficiencies, it's a recipe for trouble. So the Kings would love to see Wabeno shred Conley and defend him well on the other end.

BOLD PROCLAMATION

Tyreke Evans will still outperform Hasheem Thabeet, even in a well-tailored suit.

DETAILS

7 PM PT start. Two Game Threads (7, 8:15) and a post-gamer (9:45).