NBA Draft Lottery Scenarios
by Tom Ziller on Apr 14, 2010 5:51 AM PDT
in NBA Draft
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PrintThe Kings are done, but the Wizards and Warriors still have a game each. Here is a breakdown of the scenarios, and how they'd affect the Kings in the draft lottery.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO
If the Warriors lose in Portland and the Wizards lose to Indiana, Sacramento would be tied with both for the league's third worst record. If this happens, the teams would have the number of lottery combinations for the 3-4-5 teams pooled and split as evenly as possible. That would work out to each team having the following odds.
Pick No. 1: 12.1% chance
Pick No. 2: 12.6% chance
Pick No. 3: 13.2% chance
Coin flips would decide the order in the event two or more of the teams are pushed out of the top three by No. 4-14 teams who luck into the top of the lotto. The lowest the Kings could pick would by No. 8; however, that would be most unlikely, because it would mean three teams, each with a 6% percent chance or worse, will have snuck into the top three.
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
The Warriors and Wizards both suck, but I think maybe one of them will win. Don Nelson can add another win to his total, and Wizards host the Pacers, who are 9-31 on the road. Let's say one of them wins. Let's call that team the Wizziors. The Warzards lost. So the Kings would be tied with the Warzards for the league's third worst records. They would split the combos set aside for the 3-4 teams. Here are each team's odds.
Pick No. 1: 13.7% chance
Pick No. 2: 14.1% chance
Pick No. 3: 14.4% chance
As with the other scenario, a coin flip would set up the order in case a usurper infiltrates the righteous top three belonging to the Kings and Warzards. The lowest the Kings could pick would be No. 7.
ULTIMATE SCENARIO
In a perfect world, the Kings would be in the playoffs and not worrying about this bullsh-t. In a somewhat less perfect but ultimately quite grand world, the Wizziors and Warzards -- oh, sorry, the Warriors and the Wizards -- would both win, leaving the Kings alone in sole possession of the league's third worst record. The Kings lotto hopes would thus look like this.
Pick No. 1: 15.6% chance
Pick No. 2: 15.7% chance
Pick No. 3: 15.7% chance
The lowest the Kings would be able to pick would be Pick No. 6.
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I'm not too worried
We’re getting a top 3 pick this year, anyway
#vfettkefordraft
"The Kings will get a top 3 pick in the 2010 draft. Book it!"
I agree.
We’re due. I think we win one of the top 3 spots regardless. And in that event, I’m totally confident that Petrie will pick the best available between Wall, Turner, Favors and Cousins. Call me crazy, but I’d actually be the least thrilled with Wall, unless we leveraged him away in a trade for more. I think Turner, Favors and Cousins all would be great fits with our roster.
I'm just not sure anyone wants the "Guy who traded John Wall" tag following him.
Wall looks like a very special player. Not that Turner, Favors and Cousins aren’t but….
The Sacramento Convergence concept offers Sacramento, the Central Valley, and the State a solution to feasibly construct a new multi-use Entertainment and Sports Complex.
by jjham15 on Apr 14, 2010 9:06 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
THIS
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
by lietothegirls on Apr 14, 2010 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions
It's an interesting scenario
because I’d really like to see how Westphal uses Wall and Tyreke together. I think it could be done and is worth trying. But it might not work. In that case, no one wants to be the “Guy who traded Tyreke Evans” either.
#vfettkefordraft
"The Kings will get a top 3 pick in the 2010 draft. Book it!"
I agree-
I think that is why the Kings brass would be very happy with the #2 pick. Making a decision on Turner, Cousins and Favors seems easier than Wall, Turner, Cousins and Favors.
Here are a few scenarios-
-Kings land the #1 pick and NJ lands @ #2. NJ offers the #2 and Devan Harris for the #1. DO you take the deal?
Kings land #1, Minny lands the #3. Minny offers Flynn or Love and the #3 for #1. Say Minny lands #4 would they offer Love and the draft rights to Rubio along with #4 for the #1? Would you say yes if they did?
These are best case scenario type deals and the Kings would still have to pause. Harris is good and Harris and Favors would be a pretty amazing haul but not a guarantee of anything. The Kings could still be the team that traded a Super Star for two good players. Same goes for deal #2- Love is not an all-star but a very good rotational player, add one of Favors, Cousins, Turner + the future possibility of Rubio but again, Is this enough for a Super Star? Would Miami take this package for a 20 year old Wade? Obviously I am making a leap that Wall is going to be a Super Star but I’m not sure that that is a huge leap IMO.
I’m undecided on this stuff but it is definitely good food for thought. Let’s keep our fingers crossed and hop that maybe the Kings have a tough decision to make in the near future.
The Sacramento Convergence concept offers Sacramento, the Central Valley, and the State a solution to feasibly construct a new multi-use Entertainment and Sports Complex.
No on Harris.
Yes to Brook Lopez.
For Minny, gets iffy. I don’t wanna pass up on either Wall or Turner, but I could live with Favors. Who knows, maybe Minny will choose Favors #1 and we’ll still get either Wall or Turner.
4th pick will be more of a gamble, Cousins should still be available… so Cousins + Love will give our bench some much needed size. But I’m not keen on this one, simply because I like Turner & Wall too much.
Tanking? I don't know what you're talking about, tanking. I'm just losing more efficiently.
I'm almost certain that the guy Minny wants is Turner
If they don’t get a top 2 pick (and by the way, did you know MN has never had a top 2 pick? The lottery has been…unkind to them), they will, I think, try to get one, though I don’t know that they would go as far as trading Rubio—he’s the untouchable for them.
They might be willing to trade Love to move up, though.
We Are the Washington Generals
by Eric in Madison on Apr 14, 2010 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, fingers crossed that
however the balls fall, we still end up ahead.
In GP we trust.
Tanking? I don't know what you're talking about, tanking. I'm just losing more efficiently.
by elfboy_ on Apr 14, 2010 6:03 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I really feel like after last year we are owed some good karma
I’m feeling a top 3 pick.
by Travis Mays Hayes on Apr 14, 2010 6:26 AM PDT reply actions
Wow, you're really going all in on this top 3 promise
I think if the Kings don’t get into the top 3 it will tear a vfettke-sized hole in the fabric of the universe and you’ll simply fade away into nothingness… as if you never were…
"Sometimes the capriciousness of youth anesthetizes common sense." -Let Geoff's words guide our patience this season.
by AnotherStupidSN on Apr 14, 2010 8:53 AM PDT up reply actions
I've sold my sold to the devil buddy, this'll happen
Satan gets shit done
#vfettkefordraft
"The Kings will get a top 3 pick in the 2010 draft. Book it!"
by vfettke on Apr 14, 2010 8:57 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I don’t believe in any of that, but even I wouldn’t joke about that…
by chri5 on Apr 14, 2010 9:07 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I'm not too worried
I’m all about the last second plea for forgiveness anyway
Jesus with the save!
#vfettkefordraft
"The Kings will get a top 3 pick in the 2010 draft. Book it!"
by vfettke on Apr 14, 2010 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Satan called.
He said, Jesus might have gotten you the save, except you’ve been traded.
You now belong to the Yankees.
Tanking? I don't know what you're talking about, tanking. I'm just losing more efficiently.
So basically...
I’d be paid way too much money to work and live in the coolest city in the world. But I work for the devil and my favorite sports team gets a top 3 pick?
Strangely, this works for me
#vfettkefordraft
"The Kings will get a top 3 pick in the 2010 draft. Book it!"
Fred's Slacks is a winner!
The Sacramento Convergence concept offers Sacramento, the Central Valley, and the State a solution to feasibly construct a new multi-use Entertainment and Sports Complex.
by jjham15 on Apr 14, 2010 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I feel it also V-
I just have this feeling that we are top 3 bound. I’m kind of hoping for 2 or 3- I really like Turner and Favors. I fear Wall. He is too good to pass up, too good to trade but is he the right fit? You can’t draft that way but I certainly would have to consider all the options if I’m GP. There are just so many possibilities this off-season and they all begin with the Kings landing in the top 4.
The Sacramento Convergence concept offers Sacramento, the Central Valley, and the State a solution to feasibly construct a new multi-use Entertainment and Sports Complex.
This again is how I feel
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
by lietothegirls on Apr 14, 2010 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions
Is this really happening again?
How many years is it going to take to get people to stop getting their hopes up for the draft? We’ve been due for a long time but that doesn’t mean it’s going to happen. I feel bad for all of you when we get shafted once again and all your hearts break.
This is Black Dynamite for Anaconda Malt Liquor... Once you pop the top, the panties drop
by prowseinthehouse on Apr 14, 2010 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions
Hope and knowledge are two different things my friend
I know we’re getting a top 3 pick.
#vfettkefordraft
"The Kings will get a top 3 pick in the 2010 draft. Book it!"
And
I hope you are right
This is Black Dynamite for Anaconda Malt Liquor... Once you pop the top, the panties drop
by prowseinthehouse on Apr 14, 2010 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions
ya cuz the ping pong balls care about where the Kings pick
it is the same thing a gambler says in roulette after black has been called 3 times they think red must come up. it is an independent event.
I'm not calling conspiracy here, I'm calling we have terrible luck
and it’s a shame every year when everyone gets their hopes up just to have their hearts stomped on time and time again
This is Black Dynamite for Anaconda Malt Liquor... Once you pop the top, the panties drop
by prowseinthehouse on Apr 14, 2010 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Any of those top 4 guys would be good additions
Wall, Turner, Cousins, Favors
#vfettkefordraft
"The Kings will get a top 3 pick in the 2010 draft. Book it!"
Top 5
Wesley Johnson is going to be awesome.
"Matthews, like so many before, did not expect the Yeti. No one ever expects the Yeti." ~ Ziller
by CaliforniaJag on Apr 14, 2010 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Can't be a top 3 pick...
because there are good players. Karma says top 3 pick only if it isn’t a top 3 pick worthy draft. Pervis Ellison FTW!
never ever
root for the Warriors. Ever.
Chuck Norris is not hung like a horse .... horses are hung like Chuck Norris.
Rooting for the Blazers to lose, on the other hand
perfectly acceptable
#vfettkefordraft
"The Kings will get a top 3 pick in the 2010 draft. Book it!"
I feel like you are trying to dig yourself into a hole lately
This is Black Dynamite for Anaconda Malt Liquor... Once you pop the top, the panties drop
by prowseinthehouse on Apr 14, 2010 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions
And I'll keep digging
Eventually I’ll end up in China, out of the hole
#vfettkefordraft
"The Kings will get a top 3 pick in the 2010 draft. Book it!"
Scout some talent while you are there
I want another Yao Ming, but with adamantium feet
This is Black Dynamite for Anaconda Malt Liquor... Once you pop the top, the panties drop
by prowseinthehouse on Apr 15, 2010 9:01 AM PDT up reply actions
I never got this mentality
I see the Kings-Warriors as a sibling rivalry as much as anything. Root against them when they’re playing the Kings, but most of the time no real hard feelings.
I used to feel that way
But their toolbag fans have upped the ante a bit.
I've got squirrels in my pants!
by otis29 on Apr 14, 2010 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions 4 recs
Yep this
This is Black Dynamite for Anaconda Malt Liquor... Once you pop the top, the panties drop
by prowseinthehouse on Apr 14, 2010 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions
Agreed.
I can’t blame a team for its wack ass fans. I have no ill feelings for the dubs. The F*kers are a whole ’nother story.
33 Wins. Yeah, I said it.
I'm not sure
which one letter makes that a swear word. Aside from that, it is hard to subtract a fanbase’s addition towards your feeling about a team. People don’t like the Red Sox. Some of it has to do with the team itself, but a lot of that has to do with their annoying fan base (of which i’m a member)…remember, they used to be lovable losers not that long ago. We have the luxury of hating a Laker team with dispisable players and fans. To your point though, I agree it isn’t the teams fault they have lame fans.
In this case
I really think the fans are really doing a disservice to the warriors. I don’t have anything against the team at all, but their fans are so terrible, and have gotten so exponentially worse since the rookie of the year “race” they leave us no option be to dislike them. So good job Oakla… I mean Golden State fans, you are actually worse than your terrible team.
This is Black Dynamite for Anaconda Malt Liquor... Once you pop the top, the panties drop
by prowseinthehouse on Apr 15, 2010 9:24 AM PDT up reply actions
No matter what the pick is
Petrie will get us a solid guy. No doubt about it.
Chuck Norris is not hung like a horse .... horses are hung like Chuck Norris.
by Dub_TC on Apr 14, 2010 8:21 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Yes, the Kings do.
They need a 3 run home run- not a grand slam but more than a solo shot.
The Sacramento Convergence concept offers Sacramento, the Central Valley, and the State a solution to feasibly construct a new multi-use Entertainment and Sports Complex.
My itch says Cousins is that big shot
but I’m still mulling
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
by lietothegirls on Apr 14, 2010 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions
Cousins is too big of a risk for such a young team.
See: Joey Dorsey.
Favors is good people from what I’ve read so if the Kings have a choice, I think they look at the long term potential and maturity of Favors over the volatile but instant numbers of Cousins.
The Sacramento Convergence concept offers Sacramento, the Central Valley, and the State a solution to feasibly construct a new multi-use Entertainment and Sports Complex.
This
It’s not always just about basketball (I need to write a “Secret” post soon)
"Children want what they want when they want it." ... Andy Sims
PW is a players coach, don't you think he'd be able to deal with him?
"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
The greatest impact player in NBA History - Tim Donaghy
You mean teach him his role?
This is Black Dynamite for Anaconda Malt Liquor... Once you pop the top, the panties drop
by prowseinthehouse on Apr 14, 2010 8:14 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't really want to find out, to be honest
Of course I’m on board once Petrie picks him, but not a second before that
"Children want what they want when they want it." ... Andy Sims
So we're GUARNTEED a top 8 pick...
What’s everyone top 8 prospects to look at? Don’t need to be in order…
Cousins, Favors, Turner, Wall, Johnson, Udoh, Monroe, Bledsoe
I like those 8 with Whiteside, Aldrich and Aminu on the fringe of those 8.
why is everyone talking about Bledsoe all of the sudden?
If we’re adding another PG to the mix, I want it someone tall so teams are forced to put PGs on Reke. Someone like Greivis Vasquez in the 2nd round.
+1 on Vasquez
General Greivis is such a cool nickname
by VenomySnicket on Apr 14, 2010 2:29 PM PDT up reply actions
Haha
Nerdjoke.
But still thats awesome.
Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order and Originator of the "Brock Ness Monster".
I like
Any of the top four – Wall, Favors, Turner and Cousins. If we land in the top four we should just take the best player available. I would avoid taking another SF unless we move somebody by the draft though. The guys we already have are just as good as any SF in the draft anyway.
With a pick of 5 or higher, I wouldn’t mind seeing what Ed Davis could do.
Davis has that draft board climber feel to him IMO.
I like him but he is going to need to get healthy and blow up the height/reach/wingspan charts.
The Sacramento Convergence concept offers Sacramento, the Central Valley, and the State a solution to feasibly construct a new multi-use Entertainment and Sports Complex.
I have a sinking feeling that this draft is not even worth debating
Because somehow, someway, we’re going to end up with Greg Monroe. He’s like the Platonic ideal of Geoff Petrie power forwards.
The unequivocal choice of Evans sort of blows up the whole "Petrie Player" idea though, no?
"Sometimes the capriciousness of youth anesthetizes common sense." -Let Geoff's words guide our patience this season.
by AnotherStupidSN on Apr 14, 2010 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions
Pretty much
Otherwise he’d have taken Rubio… or Curry
#vfettkefordraft
"The Kings will get a top 3 pick in the 2010 draft. Book it!"
I thought Curry was going to be Petrie's guy, until after his lackluster workout at least.
"Sometimes the capriciousness of youth anesthetizes common sense." -Let Geoff's words guide our patience this season.
by AnotherStupidSN on Apr 14, 2010 2:47 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't know about "blows up"
Offense is still offense, and he’s shown some flexibility when it comes to different types of offensive players.
The question to me is whether he really gets how terrible the bigs defend, whether he values rebounding and shotblocking at all, and whether he’d actually value a potential dirty work big like Favors over someone like Monroe who can pass/shoot/dribble.
I’m definitely an “In Petrie We Trust” kind of guy, but his myopia when it comes to bigs is pretty much a fact on the ground at this point. And no, Brock doesn’t count.
What about JT?
Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order and Originator of the "Brock Ness Monster".
Is he the "Platonic ideal of Geoff Petrie power forwards"?
"Children want what they want when they want it." ... Andy Sims
No
Didn’t say he was. But he still was and is more offensive minded than defensive minded, and of course, he can shoot a 15 foot jumper.
Petrie has always favored bigs who can shoot, and preferably are multi-skilled. Landry, Hawes, Thompson, May, Shelden Williams, Mikki Moore, Shareef, Songaila, Corliss, KT (before he forgot how), Miller, Webber, Divac, etc. etc.
I mean, how many non-benchwarming bigs has Petrie acquired who were defensively minded? I mean, are we still going to count Scot Pollard?
Yep
You are right, of course. He just doesn’t like one-dimensional defensive big men. That’s why I’m skeptical of us procuring a Dalembert or Chandler type in the offseason.
That’s why I suspect we end up with a Troy Murphy or draft an Aldrich or Monroe.
I've got squirrels in my pants!
My top 8 in Order
Wall, Turner, Favors, Cousins, Aminu, Johnson, Aldrich, Udoh
Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order and Originator of the "Brock Ness Monster".
That's pretty close to my list too
although I’m not very excited about Aldrich, and I would definitely wince and pray at my alter dedicated to GP if we ended up with Cousins. The kid’s a ticking time bomb, IMO.
Plus, if we fall outside the top 5, (hevvinferbid) Hassan Whiteside needs to be in this conversation.
"When the going gets Weird, the Weird turn professional."
(Hunter Thompson)
the one thing I think is for sure
is that we need to take the best player available without regard to need.
We’ve got one all-star and then a lot of guys who could be reserves or role players on a really good team. We need to add a second all-star through the draft, and then sign a veteran with our cap space. The future’s looking bright.
Life is every mammal's journey from very very wet to very very dry.
Agreed.
A veteran and an all-star or close to all-star caliber player are definitely in store for a successful season next year. I would love to see an enforcer/shotblocker on our team next year.
I’m betting that Casspi, Brocktimus and Donte come back better than expected. Donte especially. Hopefully, JT will really work on his left hand and ball fakes this summer.
Future is bright indeed.
33 Wins. Yeah, I said it.
I don't get to see many games down here in LA
and so there is not much you can take away from one game, but I was impressed by how Donte carried himself against the Lakers. He seemed mature, and purposeful. It made me think he is going to work hard this weekend and surprise some people next season.
Life is every mammal's journey from very very wet to very very dry.
Well, I hope he puts in more than just one weekend...
"Sometimes the capriciousness of youth anesthetizes common sense." -Let Geoff's words guide our patience this season.
by AnotherStupidSN on Apr 14, 2010 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions
I think
since last year, the Kings sent Webber (#4) and he got the #4 pick ….. this year, we should send Mitch Richmond (#2) …..
Chuck Norris is not hung like a horse .... horses are hung like Chuck Norris.
I like that idea
I had suggested Aykis but that would somehow get us the #16th pick, and ed would get us the 7th, and don’t even mention Section…
by betweentheeyes on Apr 14, 2010 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions
I would probably land #15.
But maybe 1-5 which would work.
The Sacramento Convergence concept offers Sacramento, the Central Valley, and the State a solution to feasibly construct a new multi-use Entertainment and Sports Complex.
You'd land us picks 1-5?
Send this man to Secaucus!
Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order and Originator of the "Brock Ness Monster".
With the 214th pick,
the Sacramento Kings picks “Luke Walton Fetus” from the dumpster out back.
Coz you know, Luke Walton is an abortion.
Tanking? I don't know what you're talking about, tanking. I'm just losing more efficiently.
Damn, should have read "[Redacted] Fetus" instead.
coz you know, the [Redacted] are an abortion.
Tanking? I don't know what you're talking about, tanking. I'm just losing more efficiently.
Boby J will probably go
Where does that leave us?
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
by lietothegirls on Apr 14, 2010 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions
Either 2 or 4
"Matthews, like so many before, did not expect the Yeti. No one ever expects the Yeti." ~ Ziller
by CaliforniaJag on Apr 14, 2010 1:00 PM PDT up reply actions
Pretty sure the Kings will send Tyreke
although LttG’s idea of sending Bobby aint a bad idea either.
Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order and Originator of the "Brock Ness Monster".
All i want is a top 4 pick
I’m not a fan of anyone in this draft except for Wall, Turner, Cousins and Favors. If the Kings can’t land a top 4 pick I’ll be devastated.
Wesley Johnson is going to be awesome
"Matthews, like so many before, did not expect the Yeti. No one ever expects the Yeti." ~ Ziller
by CaliforniaJag on Apr 14, 2010 1:00 PM PDT up reply actions
Very Shawn Marion like
Watching him play in the tourney, this kid goes after it. He jumps high for those rebounds. He’d be nice at the 2 spot next to Reke, with Donté at the 3.
Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order and Originator of the "Brock Ness Monster".
Hope for the best, expect the worst
I wouldn’t be surprised if Stern calls out the Kings at #8…that crook.
wizards knocked off Pacers!
98-97. Blatche scored 26 pts on 11 of 19.
"When the going gets Weird, the Weird turn professional."
(Hunter Thompson)
if we get Favors
with the third pick, pookey owes Blatche a cookie.
"When the going gets Weird, the Weird turn professional."
(Hunter Thompson)
Charles
You might wish to rethink this. He does like hookers.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985......
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
You know … I just realized. I have some serious hate issues for this kid. I should stop that.
by Charles L. Pierro on Apr 14, 2010 7:54 PM PDT reply actions
I think so Charles,
especially since he just won us some ping pong balls. He does seem to be pretty unlikable though.
"When the going gets Weird, the Weird turn professional."
(Hunter Thompson)
Yes … yes … sigh
Good Blatche. Good Blatche. Good boy.
sigh
by Charles L. Pierro on Apr 14, 2010 8:04 PM PDT up reply actions
Haha! That's the spirit!
And after we get Favors we’ll all go out to Arco when the Wizards come to town, and we’ll beat Blatche with the new toy he bought us.
"When the going gets Weird, the Weird turn professional."
(Hunter Thompson)
by Mucho Moss on Apr 14, 2010 8:09 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Er, I won’t be at Arco, considering I live in South Carolina now, but … I’ll certainly be watching on TV. Blatche – I didn’t really have an issue with him before that tantrum he threw trying to get his double-double. Sorry – triple-double. I just … that just made me hate him so bad.
Man, I hope his toy is good.
by Charles L. Pierro on Apr 14, 2010 8:15 PM PDT reply actions
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