JT vs. his contemporaries
by corbin on Apr 18, 2010 7:58 PM PDT
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Now at the end of Jason Thompson's second season, I thought it would be worthwhile to do a quick comparison between him and some of the other big men that the Kings passed up in the '08 draft to take JT. At the time, most people were expecting Petrie to go with someone like Anthony Randolph, Roy Hibbert, Marreese Speights or even Darrell Arthur. Given the low regard that most experts (not including GP) held JT in prior to the draft, I think it's safe to say he has exceeded expectations, even if you find yourself frustrated with his overall play. But I wanted to see how he has done relative to his '08 peer group, just to see if we should have any buyer's remorse in hindsight.
So, looking at Pts/Rebs/FG%/Blks, here's how they all did in the '09-'10 season:
Thompson: 12.5 / 8.5 / 47% / 1
Speights: 8.6 / 4.1 / 48% / 0.5
Hibbert: 11.7 / 5.7 / 50% / 1.6
Arthur: 4.5 / 3.4 / 43% / 0.4
Randolph*: 11.6 / 6.5 / 44% / 1.5
* AR in an injury-shortened season.
The results are pretty satisfying. JT outscored and outrebounded all these guys. Speights and Hibbert had a little bit better FG%, but not by much. Hibbert gets more blocks, which is to be expected. Randolph was half a block better, but what you gain in Randolph's athleticism, you lose in his rebounding prowess/ability (-2).
There's a long way to go in the careers of each of these guys. And Randoph still has major breakthrough potential, more so than anybody else on this list. I think Hibbert will continue to improve at a marginal rate as well. But these numbers confirm that Petrie knew what he was doing with the 12th pick two years ago. I think that JT will continue to make marginal improvements, though his upside is limited. I think he'll be a good back-up PF for us, and I have no complaints having him in that role going forward.
Now, about that starting center position...
(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)
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The reason he outscored and outrebounded them was because he played more minutes than they did
Thompson frustrates me. He cannot play with any of the big men except Landry
"Who Wants some pudding pops?, delicious and nutritious!
Do you watch every single Kings game?
"Children want what they want when they want it." ... Andy Sims
Your initial point is a fair one.
I didn’t take the time to look up their per minute numbers. If you wanted to add that to the discussion, I’d be interested to see what they show.
Ok, here are the per minute numbers
I went to Basketball Prospectus for this. I think this is right. Points and rebounds only:
JT: 15.9/10.8
MS: 20.9/9.9
RH: 18.6/9.1
DA: 12.6/9.7
AR: 20.5/11.5
So, maybe I’m not as satisfied as I was half an hour ago, but I still don’t feel tons of regret for passing on these other guys. JT, per 40 minutes, still rebounds as well or better than any of these guys. And you could make an argument that Randolph’s numbers are somewhat inflated due to the Warriors’ style of play.
Also, I’m willing to bet that JT’s per minute numbers will improve as a reserve. All his points and boards were hard earned against other NBA starting big men. I’m guessing JT played more starter minutes than the other four on this list.
Food for thought, though…
Thats fair, but the Kings passed on a lot of other things as well
like shot blocking defense, athleticism, upside. I don’t know why but I cannot see Thompson ever becoming a good player, while Randolph and Hibbert can be very good big man.
"Who Wants some pudding pops?, delicious and nutritious!
Not sure what you consider "Nice"
JT should become a 15/10 guy….better than that will take a lot of work by JT…and that none of us can predict with certainty. To me 15/10 is nice.
There are some guys smarter than me, some guys better looking, I take comfort in the fact that there is no guy that is both.
I'll take that
That would have tied him for 3rd in rebounding this year.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
If you recall, JT's goal at the beginning of the season...
to be a double-double guy. He came up short. Sure it would be nice if he met that goal in his third season. The per minute stats tell a different story from just the raw statistics.
To be the best, you have to do your best. Otherwise, you are only second-rate.
I have been frustrated with JT also
but doesn’t minutes played also say something about the player too? I mean in some cases who cares what his stats might be if he played more minutes because he doesn’t. Probably for a reason.
MS is playing behind a washed up Brand.
AR is playing behind Roni freakin Turiaf.
DA is playing behind Z-Bo which is fair but he couldn’t get much time last year either without Z.
Who does RH play behind? No excuse for him neither.
I love beating dead horses.
Nice input corbin
JT has done well but he seems capable of being better. Whether or not he will be remains to be seen.
As for the others:
Hibbert is as expected very similar to Brandon Haywood – a bit slow, a bit immobile, suspect handles but smart and steady.
Darell Arthur is very similar to JT in that he has some bright spots but unspectacular and inconsistent but workman like.with bouts of questionable decision making.
Speights is effeicient but oft injured and not much of a defender. He has some Andray Blatche in him, without the degree of attitude.
Anthony Randolph is an incomplete. Great athletecism, questionable motor, questionable head. A Don Nelson dilemma to a tee.
You left off JJ Hickson who has performed well but it is hard to compare him to JT given the large difference in teammates and exposure
You also left off Leon Powe who was passed on because of his injury history. He compares in many ways to DeJaun Blair – his defensive alter ego. He is still plagued with injury questions.
I know I am a homer but..
out of all these big men I would still take JT. he showed flashes of what he can do and he was the second biggest reason (behind reke) that the Kings were floating around 500 in the beginning of the year.
I might agree with you,
though someone needs to go “upside” his head so that he matures a bit.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
Ah, Upside again.
I ranted about this in a previous post.
Upside means “currently overrated, and let’s hope this will change within 2 seasons”.
The grass isn’t always greener elsewhere. JT shows the desire to work hard in order to improve. And he will, I believe.
Dunking Dutchman
by RikSmits on Apr 19, 2010 5:55 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Sometimes numbers lie
So I’m not going to get into basic or advanced metrics but I’ll say this: from watching each guy, they’ve all got a flaw or something to work on.
*Thompson is still foul prone and he takes himself out of games with his complaining.
*Hibbert is still slow as hell and inconsistent because he’s not a good matchup on many nights and he has his own foul problems.
*Speights is an animal on offense, seems to be getting more consistent with his effort but he’s useless on the defensive end.
*Arthur will probably be out of the league within 4 years. He’s just not that good.
*Randolph will continue to be an injury plagued tease until his body/mind matures and he gets some better coaching.
*Hickson is a smaller version of Marcin Gortat. He’s lucky he plays with one of the best players in the world and a skilled supporting cast that can mask his deficiencies and let him specialize in what he is good at.
Then there’s Serge Ibaka, JaVale McGee and George Hill. If you could have a do-over, would you take any of these guys rather than Thompson?
Just Ibaka.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985......
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
Oh and that includes anyone else below JT.
Nobody can claim to want Ibaka because nobody at StR was talking about him. Hell, nobody was even talking about him during the early part of this season.
Ibaka is a credit to Sam Presti and his scouting staff.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985......
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
Agreed
Ibaka was a great get. Should be OKC’s starting PF next year.
Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order and Originator of the "Brock Ness Monster".
BJ Mullens in the wings
as a back up 5?
by betweentheeyes on Apr 18, 2010 11:27 PM PDT up reply actions
I think OKC will go hard after Marcin Gortat.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985......
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
Can he provide a post up game to go with his apparent defensive presence?
Is he a big enough upgrade over Kristic?
by betweentheeyes on Apr 19, 2010 12:16 AM PDT up reply actions
It's a good question.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985......
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
I think that OKC doesn't need too much offense from their Center
What they do need is a defensive presence there. Gortat would provide that and solid rebounding. He’s also athletic enough to run as well. The Thunder could start Gortat, Ibaka, Durant, Sefolosha (until Harden improves defensively, which I think he will), and Westbrook, and then have a great bench of Krstic, Green, Harden, Maynor.
Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order and Originator of the "Brock Ness Monster".
That would make them a scary young team.
"Thou must give props" - Ice_9ine
by tomroadrunner on Apr 19, 2010 9:56 PM PDT up reply actions
i was wondering the same thing
Could some of you maybe use a condom once in a while?
by wallywagon11 on Apr 19, 2010 10:21 AM PDT up reply actions
of the 3 you have added
Hill is wonderful but not a comparison big
Ibaka makes a compelling argument but he didn’t come over until this season
McGee has a wonderful presence but is very immature but with work could turn out to be a better (less injured) Tyson Chandler
by betweentheeyes on Apr 18, 2010 10:50 PM PDT up reply actions
And Ibaka also plays with Durant which makes his presence very different
When you have a Durant like player it’s very easy to say oh you should have taken this guy or that guy.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985......
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
George Hill, no doubt.
He is the real deal. Can do everything well and has great size and athleticism.
Screw you Knicks! LBJ to the Kings!!!
Nice post Corbin
The thing about actual stats vs per minute stats is that you have to do a lot more reserach on both. If a player has great per minute stats but isn’t playing as many minutes, why? Is there a better player at their position ahead of them? If so, are they playing against bench players more often? Are they injured a lot? Are they in foul trouble a lot? Are they great on one side of the floor but bad on the other? Are they only good against smaller or slower players?
Of course you could argue the same thing with a young guy who gets a lot of minutes, that he is only getting so many minutes because he is on a bad team. But overall, you can’t say (and I know you weren’t) that one stat is a more accurate picture of the player than another. I think that JT’s stats are a pretty accurate picture of what he brought to the table this year since he started most of the games and played significant minutes against starters and bench players. He also played both PF and Center. Here’s to hoping he improves his game this off season. I’d be delighted!! with a 15/10 avg out of him next year.
"And I never said I don’t like KMart. I just don’t think the duo is good for the team. They are essentially two of the same player"
Sammyp831.
by SavageBeast on Apr 19, 2010 7:54 AM PDT reply actions 3 recs
Reke'd and well said
I’d be happy with 13 and 9, a feat accomplished by only 15 players this season. 15 and 10 would have me dancing in the streets. 15-10 was done by only 9 players this season.
Oh, and I posted it elsewhere, but I’ll post it again here. This season, JT averaged 12.5 and 8.5, a feat accomplished by only 21 players this season. Very fine company.
Don't say stupid shit. You won’t be perceived as stupid. - pookeyguru
by Kfan in Korea on Apr 19, 2010 8:20 AM PDT up reply actions 4 recs
This
"And I never said I don’t like KMart. I just don’t think the duo is good for the team. They are essentially two of the same player"
Sammyp831.
Exactly
There will never be another Kareem.
by MichaelMack on Apr 19, 2010 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions
And he's only a 2nd year player as well.
I think JT was definitely worthy of the pick we took him at.
Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order and Originator of the "Brock Ness Monster".
That's right. Do you know how old he is?
Oh, wait. Sorry, wrong guy.
"And I never said I don’t like KMart. I just don’t think the duo is good for the team. They are essentially two of the same player"
Sammyp831.
Your sig gets me every time
That was a truly memorable “argument”
Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order and Originator of the "Brock Ness Monster".
Some comments are just too choice to let die peacefully
"And I never said I don’t like KMart. I just don’t think the duo is good for the team. They are essentially two of the same player"
Sammyp831.
JT was a solid pick
He’s still improving. Down the stretch this season he got much better at playing within his game. I think he has really started to figure out what his role/game will be in the NBA.
Two things that I think really helped him down the stretch were playing the 5 where he could use some athleticism. (At the four, he is usually not the quicker player). And coming off the bench seemed to work for him. For whatever reason he seemed more relaxed on the court, less fouls and complaining. (no numbers to back that up)
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