2010 NBA DRAFT – DALT99 SYSTEM PLAYER RANKINGS

Better late then never eh? Man, it’s been a roller coaster of a ride for me lately so I am sorry about the long delay in getting these scores out.

OK, well this draft class is dominated by the bigs it seems. Some really good ones and some decent back-up types that could find a long life in the NBA. Evan Turner may be the only true star wing player and Wall, the only stud point guard. The Kings need a rebounding, low-post scoring big man and that guy is Cousins. I don’t know if Petrie will take a chance on him but at 5th, I don’t see a whole lot of solid guys that are sure stars. Cousins *could* be that star player someday.

My scoring system ranks players from 50-105. It’s based on a ton of factors, mostly statistical, and is then compared to just about EVERY other player ever to come out of college and by those comparisons of how well those players fared in the NBA, the score is set. Each season is different, with different schools being better than last year and different divisions being stronger or weaker than last year. I have to incorporate all of that into the scoring.

If you need a reminder of what each score represents and more about the details of my system, here is last year’s post for the 2009 draft.

Without further ado (and ramblings), here are the scores for the 2010 draft, and some of my findings for the top draft choices.

                                             2010 NBA Draft Rankings w/Scores

*this player is not entered in the 2010 draft

DeMarcus Cousins –

My opinions: Big and strong with quicker feet and better agility than many assume when watching him. Very strong post game that is already near NBA level. Great touch on his short and midrange jump shot. He needs to know when to pass as he will usually try and shoot the ball almost every time he touches it. I won’t go into the laziness or poor work ethic stuff since it’s been talked about a lot already but even with his high percentage of body fat, he is very fluid on the court. He still does show a fire when he wants to and when he was focused, was one of the most dominant NCAA big men in a while in just his freshman season. Honestly, talent-wise if he falls past #4, I would be surprised.

Statistically speaking: A rebounding average of 16.7 per 40 minutes is astounding and is the highest per-minute rebounding average for all players in this draft class, putting him in league with Hakeem Olajuwon, Ralph Sampson and Xavier McDaniel. His 27 points per 40 minutes places him 9th in scoring per minute overall and 4th for all big men behind Charles Garcia of Seattle, Luke Harangody of Notre Dame and Omar Samhan of St. Mary’s..12.0 FT attempts per 40 minutes. Twelve. That is a TON. Kevin Martin, a free throw drawing machine in college (and NBA) averaged 12.0 FTA per 40, in his JUNIOR year. Only 8.1 in his freshman. 12.0 per game is the highest by far among all players in this draft class so you know he is a beast down low. His FG% of 56.5, while above average is nothing special considering the over 60% shooting of former and current all-stars such as Hakeem Olajuwon, Shaquille O’Neal and Carlos Boozer. He does have an impressive steal rate for a freshman big man of 1.7 steals per 40 which shows his good anticipation and better than you expect agility and IQ. He has a good block rate of 3 per game/40 but for a college center it’s not overly impressive. He does tend to foul way too much (5.4 per 40) which could be partly why he gets more steals and blocks, and while not badly turnover prone, is not the most careful with the ball either.

John Wall –

My opinions: One of the more athletic point guards in college. Seems to have a high basketball IQ and is one of the best passers in the NCAA. Very good ball handler and extremely fast with the dribble. I can't say much more that hasn't been said. Should be a stud.

Statistically speaking: Very high assist average of 7.5 per 40 which ranks him 4th per minute among all point guards in this draft class and 1st among all the big college guards. For a freshman, that is saying something even though this is a very weak point guard class besides Wall. Good (but not great) rebounding average of near 5 per game which shows mostly his good size, but also his basketball IQ and hard work. 7.2 FT attempts per 40 is a very solid number for a freshman point guard. Good but not spectacular 2.0 steals per 40. 4.6 turnovers is too high. Average FT and 3-pt shooter at 75.4% and 32.5% respectively.

Evan Turner –

My opinions: Extremely solid player. He can do it on both ends of the court and plays smarter than almost every player on the court. Similar to Brandon Roy in his court awareness and overall offensive skills. May be a better defender than Roy but that’s hard to say at this point. Offensively creative and intelligent, he seems to be able to run a team from the small forward position. Not overly fast, but economical and smart with his moves. I don’t know if he will become a superstar, but he should be a very solid all-around wing player in the NBA.

Statistically speaking: The first thing that jumps off the page is his assist total. Six per game (6.7/40 minutes) is fantastic for a 6’7” wing player in college but he also rebounds at a high rate (9.2 pg) and scores very well at over 22 points per 40. He can pull up off the dribble or drive to the basket, though you won’t see him dunking over big men very often. Like K-mart, he usually finishes below the rim, but unlike Martin, he is not nearly adept at drawing fouls (6.5 FTA per 40). One of the things I am most impressed with is his above average FG shooting. Not a big time 3-pt shooter (36% with less than 2 attempts per game), he shoots 52% from the field on over 16 shots per full game. Pretty much exactly like Brandon Roy did in his last year in college. His steal rate is good but not spectacular. About the only real negative is that he turns the ball over way too much. His 1.36 A/TO ratio is not bad for most small forwards in college but you would like it to be a bit higher for a player with his high number of assists.

Derrick Favors –

My opinions: Very athletic guy. He is effective in and around the basket but still has a way to go outside of 15 feet shooting jumpers. Seems to not have too many flaws except for not having that deeper outside shot. He has great hands and superb touch around the rim. Doesn’t have much of an offensive post up game or a game off the dribble. Likes to catch and finish or score off offensive rebounds. Needs to learn to create his own shots.

Statistically speaking: 61.1% FG shooter on 11.8 shots per 40 shows that he is very efficient with his offensive game and knows what he can and can’t do. Solid in many numbers for a freshman, including rebounds (12.2/40), points (18/40), blocks (3/40) and steals (1.3/40). Slightly higher than average turnover rate is not good but it’s easy to overlook since he is a freshman and high turnovers are not uncommon. Fantastic 7’4” wingspan with a 9’2” standing reach. Only draws 5.5 free throw attempts per 40 minutes played which shows that he is not one to draw double teams or create his own offense.

Greg Monroe –

My opinions: Wow. Spencer Hawes can pass but Greg Monroe can distribute. This guy is a fantastic passer. Maybe one of the best passing big men since Vlade Divac. No, he’s not on that level yet, but he is only 20 years old and already shows flashes of brilliance. He is a Spencer Hawes that can pass AND rebound better. Very high basketball IQ. He can run a system from the high post or low post. Left-handed player. Period. He really needs to learn that he has a second hand attached to his body. He finishes at the rim left-handed, drives the ball left-handed and passes the ball almost exclusively with his left hand. Defensively he has a lot of room to improve. He has decent fundamentals but can be a bit slow and flat footed in both man-on-man defense and help defense. He seems to rest and save energy at times on defense. Uses his intellect to defend more than his athletic skills. He is also very good in the open floor, both running to get the pass or even running the break in spots and getting the assist. I actually compare him a bit to the Lakers’ Lamar Odom, who is also a lefty.

Statistically speaking: 4.4 assists per 40 minutes. For a center? Wow. He does happen to be in a college offense that built perfectly for his game as they use him for his passing and decision making. 11.2 rebounds per 40 is good but nothing spectacular, especially at the college level.18.8 ppg/40 is also good but not great. As a young sophomore (he just turned 20 in June), he has a LOT of room to improve on those skills. His steal average of 1.4 is very good for a center and he doesn’t commit a lot of fouls at only 3 per 40 minutes of action. That foul rate may coincide some with his slightly below average block average of 1.75/40 and lack of consistent energy on defense. In the NBA, if he is used as a backup to come in and be more aggressive, he could average around 2 blocks per game. 7.2 FT attempts per game shows that he is aggressive in the right spots but is not a low post beast by any means.

Wesley Johnson –

My opinions: Loooong. Arms, legs and shot. He can bust from deep AND dunk from near the free throw line. Very athletic small forward that should be a solid pro. Can create his own shot but is probably not going to be known as a “go-to” guy as he is mainly a spot up shooter. His idea of creating is taking a dribble in or to the side and then pulling up for a shot. Great leaper and has fantastic hands and timing near the rim. Alley-oops are his specialty. I see him being one of two players: a better, more versatile Rudy Gay…. or Rudy Gay.

Statistically speaking: For a junior 6’7” small forward, his main stats (assists, rebounds and points) are not overly impressive at 2.5, 9.7 and 18.9 per 40 minutes respectively but because of his monstrous 7’1” wingspan, he grabs a lot of rebounds for his size. Also because of that wingspan, he excels in block shots at 2.1 per 40. He has an above average steal rate for a 6’7” junior small forward at 1.9 per 40. His FG% of 50.2 and FT% of 77.2 are average. He is, however a very good 3-pt shooter at 41.5% while attempting 4 shots per 40 minutes (30% of his total FG attempts). At 22 years old, he is not as young as some of his peers such as Aminu, Turner and Xavier Henry. Only 4.7 FT attempts per 40 minutes of play statistically demonstrates just how little offense he likes to create for himself.