Who will end up being a bust?
The more I read about the NBA Draft and review the "expert" opinions, the more questions marks I have about DeMarcus Cousins. I'm still hoping the Kings will draft him, but at this point, I'm prepared for the possibility that he actually will become the next Benoit Benjamin/Oliver Miller/Stanley Roberts and never put in enough work before eventually eating himself out of the league.
But even if DMC ends up being an All-Star, someone from this year's lottery -- and probably a couple of guys -- won't live up to expectations. I looked through the bigger "busts" of the last seven Draft lotteries to try to determine which players didn't end up panning out and why. And yes, it might be too early to call some of them "failures," but they certainly haven't lived up to expectations, and at this point, I wouldn't want any of them on the Kings.
2003 (Pick #)
Michael Sweetney (9)
Marcus Banks (13)
(The 1st round also included the likes of Reece Gaines, Troy Bell, Žarko Čabarkapa, Dahntay Jones, Zoran Planicic, Brian Cook, Ndubi Ebi, Maciej Lampe.)
2004 (Pick #)
Shaun Livingston (4) - a different case because of injuries, but the point is all the same
Rafael Araújo (8)
Luke Jackson (10)
Robert Swift (12)
Kris Humphries (14)
2005 (Pick #)
Marvin Williams (2) - not a bust, per se, but infamously taken over Deron Williams and Chris Paul
Martell Webster (6)
Ike Diogu (9)
Fran Vázquez (11)
Yaroslav Korolev (12)
Sean May (13)
Rashad McCants (14)
2006 (Pick #)
Adam Morrison (3)
Shelden Williams (5)
Patrick O'Bryant (9)
Mouhamed Sene (10)
Hilton Armstrong (12)
2007 (Pick #)
Greg Oden (1) - yes, he might stay healthy one of these years, but time is running out
Brandan Wright (8) - similar case as Oden, but one of the more intriguing guys on the list
Acie Law (11)
Julian Wright (13)
2008 (Pick #)
Joe Alexander (8)
2009 (Pick #)
Hasheem Thabeet (2)
Jordan Hill (8)
Earl Clark (14)
As expected, the majority of these players were drafted for size and didn't have enough skill to go along with being ridiculously tall. Others had red flags about their inability to adjust to the NBA game that ultimately came true (Morrison Jackson), and some climbed up on Draft boards because of great workouts and not much else (Alexander).
So, who will Cousins be this year's lottery flop? Will it be Cole Aldrich? Gordon Hayward? Ed Davis? I'd be curious to hear some opinions with just over 48 hours until the big day.
(This is a FanPost from a member of the Sactown Royalty community. The views expressed come from the member, and not Sactown Royalty staff.)
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Ike Diogu is not a bust
Evidence:

"Matt Cain's better at this than I've ever been at anything in my life. He's better at this than you'll ever be, at anything. Matt Cain has a gift. He has a gift, and when you acknowledge that, then maybe we will have something to talk about."
by otis29 on Jun 22, 2010 7:26 AM PDT reply actions 7 recs
Ha, never saw that before
But for a 9th overall pick, 6.1 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 18 career starts is pretty awful. Though he was surprisingly dominant in the Kings’ last two or three games in 2009 and I was on board with keeping him around to see if he might’ve been a late bloomer (worked out well in retrospect, since he missed all of last year with micro-fracture surgery and his career might be over).
Writer of "When Kingdom Come" - http://blogcritics.org/sports/feature/when-kingdom-come | Twitter: @doktakra
That picture shows up here every month or two
basically any opportunity we get to post it, it gets posted. So, this:
Ha, never saw that before
Just says, “Newbie!”
:-p
Don't say stupid shit. You won’t be perceived as stupid. - pookeyguru
by Kfan in Korea on Jun 22, 2010 8:19 AM PDT up reply actions
Good to know...
I usually scan through the stories on the front page, but I haven’t started reading the comments until recently…I will now though.
Writer of "When Kingdom Come" - http://blogcritics.org/sports/feature/when-kingdom-come | Twitter: @doktakra
You have now fallen into the pit that is StR.
It’s like Hotel California: You can check out but you can never leave. :)
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985......
Maybe we should adjust our stats to per36 years of age? -- ElRonToro
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
I see 5 beautiful busts in that picture
...
by prowseinthehouse on Jun 22, 2010 8:30 AM PDT up reply actions 7 recs
There must be 57 tits...
Don't say stupid shit. You won’t be perceived as stupid. - pookeyguru
by Kfan in Korea on Jun 22, 2010 8:51 AM PDT up reply actions
Damn
Beat me to the obvious joke.
Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order and Originator of the "Brock Ness Monster".
I don't know what you're talking about Otis
I see at least 5 busts in that picture.
Grandmaster of the "Never let AnotherStupidSN forget what a Sham-Wow is" Order and Originator of the "Brock Ness Monster".
I see 5 huge busts in that picture!
by caseycheesecake on Jun 22, 2010 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions
I like the one on the very right.
What about you guys?
by caseycheesecake on Jun 22, 2010 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions
Neither was casey
"Matt Cain's better at this than I've ever been at anything in my life. He's better at this than you'll ever be, at anything. Matt Cain has a gift. He has a gift, and when you acknowledge that, then maybe we will have something to talk about."
I see 5 huge busts in the picture!!!
"Children want what they want when they want it." ... Andy Sims
by edm7 on Jun 22, 2010 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Jordan Hill = NaB yet.
Played pretty well for the Rockets. He was a bad pick in the sense that Bogut was a bad pick because the Bucks could’ve had Chris Paul, but not really a bust. Jrue Holiday would have been prime for the Knicks if they picked him.
Perhaps
As I said in the intro, it might be too early to call some of these guys busts — they’re just players who, to date, haven’t been worthy of their draft position. To put it another way, there will be a Jordan Hill in this year’s Draft, and I don’t want to end up with a player who has that dreaded “potential” but puts up five points and four boards as a rookie.
And Brandon Jennings, as well as just about anyone else, would’ve worked better for the Knicks.
Writer of "When Kingdom Come" - http://blogcritics.org/sports/feature/when-kingdom-come | Twitter: @doktakra
Same with Thabeeet
way way way too early to call him a bust. he was drafted as a project, so give him a couple years atleast
Screw you Knicks! LBJ to the Kings!!!
Are there many players on the above list who you were surprised to call a bust?
The only ones that really stick out to me are Oden (who I think has yet to show is a bust because he was pretty good when playing), both the Wrights, and Livingston.
Please note the 11 next to my name. All others are frauds.
I was saying they all were
I only gave comments on a few that were borderline cases in my opinion, but I think every player above has been a “bust” in some way. My original point was that there’s always a guy (or five) who fails in every Draft, and I’m wondering who that will be this year.
Writer of "When Kingdom Come" - http://blogcritics.org/sports/feature/when-kingdom-come | Twitter: @doktakra
I can't see how you would qualify the guys from last year busts or Oden but I guess that is neither here nor there
But out of this year’s crop I wouldn’t be very surprised to see these guys be considered “busts” by your standard
Al-Farouq Aminu SF/PF
Gordon Hayward SF
Ed Davis PF
Ekpe Udoh PF/C
Xavier Henry SG/SF
Patrick Patterson PF
Cole Aldrich C
Luke Babbitt SF
Daniel Orton C
Hassan Whiteside PF/C
Please note the 11 next to my name. All others are frauds.
by wallywagon11 on Jun 22, 2010 8:39 AM PDT up reply actions
I would have these guys:
AFA
Orton
Whiteside
George
Alabi
I’m sure there will be some solid players but this draft is a little shaky after the top 6. I like Aldrich, Udoh and Henry to be solid rotation players for a while. I like Davis, Bledsoe and Patterson as guys who will be considerably better than we think right now.
Truth is, on talent alone, and nothing else, I’d rank DMC 1st.
PookeyGuru- June 1, 2010.
I doubt Whiteside will be a bust
the fact that he’s going to be drafted after the lottery and he can hit a jump shot and block shots means he should have a role in the league commensurate with his draft position. Most of the big man busts were either some O, no D or Whiteside type shot-blockers with 0 offensive skill.
I see bust.
Somewhere around 25% of all first round picks are total busts.
Truth is, on talent alone, and nothing else, I’d rank DMC 1st.
PookeyGuru- June 1, 2010.
Ed Davis and Cole Aldrich have BUST written all over them...
Just something about players from UNC lately and white, nonathletic centers from Kansas (Ostertaag)
There are several players on the current Kings roster I'd trade for Thabeet and Hill.
Marvin Williams, too.
Rocks are free, and slingshots easily stolen.
Well, yeah
If the Grizzlies or Rockets want Garcia’s contract or Udoka/May in a sign-and-trade, then sure…but that’s not happening and wasn’t really my point. ;)
I only put Marvin Williams on there because he was a huge reach at #2 and hasn’t justified being taken so high…there’s a good chance we’ll be saying that about someone this year, too.
Writer of "When Kingdom Come" - http://blogcritics.org/sports/feature/when-kingdom-come | Twitter: @doktakra
Marvin Williams gets a bad rap
Just because of where he was drafted. At least he’s a productive player, unlike Shelden Williams (another hawks high draft pick). Poor Shelden couldn’t even get off the bench in the Finals when Boston had zero big men and had to use a lame Sheed for the bulk of the minutes.
Those threes Sheed was making
certainly weren’t too lame.
"I know we certainly gave up a lot to get him, but we do have other players on the perimeter who we can plug in. We haven’t had anybody who we feel is a go-to guy in the post. So we gave up a lot to get a lot, and we’re real excited about adding Carl." - Paul Westphal
They might not be busts
I’m not saying anyone from the 2008 or 2009 Drafts is a flop, or that Oden can’t have a solid career. I’m using the “bust” term very loosely for players who haven’t made the type of impact that was expected.
I’d agree with most of the guys on your list, though I really like Udoh and think he’ll be a solid player. I could see Whiteside never panning out, too, as much as I like him, too.
Writer of "When Kingdom Come" - http://blogcritics.org/sports/feature/when-kingdom-come | Twitter: @doktakra
True
But he was the #2 overall pick who was sent down to the D-League and was (reportedly) on the trading block. You don’t get more admittance from a GM that he blew it than that. Thatbeet is a project, but so were guys like Patrick O’Bryant and Mouhamed Sene, and they weren’t taken as high. Thabeet will need to turn a major corner to not be considered a bust considering where he was drafted and how many impact players were taken after him.
I don’t want to go anywhere near the next Thabeet with the fifth pick.
Writer of "When Kingdom Come" - http://blogcritics.org/sports/feature/when-kingdom-come | Twitter: @doktakra
Agreed. #2 pick shouldn't go to a "project."
While I don’t expect somebody to be at or near All-Star level, and while we obviously expect even a #2 pick to have some development ahead of him, a #2 pick needs to be the kind of guy who can produce now.
I can name quite a few #1 and #2 that were projects-
Kwame Brown, Olowokandi, Darko, Tyson Chandler, Dwight Howard…..
Yes, Dwight Howard was a project out of high school.
Truth is, on talent alone, and nothing else, I’d rank DMC 1st.
PookeyGuru- June 1, 2010.
wow...3 of the 5 are....
Big men who didn’t go to college. Don’t believe the high school hype!
Actually, might be 4. Don’t know if Darko went to college before playing in Europe.
And only I really paid off. Makes you wonder what kind of workouts they did before the draft. Or is this a case of GM thinking that their was more potential in these guys than what was really there?
Honestly, if Demarcus Cousins goes to Golden State I think the implosion will cause a black hole
That would be the worst possible scenario for him and might lead to him being a bust.
#vfettkefordraft
Golden State worked for Chris Webber....
Oh, no it didn’t. My Bad!
Sorry.
Crystal ball is in the shop, and I can’t find half of the tarot cards, so predicting which young kid will see his career flame out before he’s old enough to legally drink alcohol is a bit beyond me at the moment.
Besides, there are plenty of guys on this site that are perfectly happy sitting around envisioning busts.
StR Token Female
by LeaguePassAddict on Jun 22, 2010 10:05 AM PDT reply actions
All righty...
I didn’t realize you had such a personal stake in the players’ (and instant millionaires’) futures. I guess it’s easier and more fun to predict which guy will turn into a star, but as sarcastic as you want to be, the inevitable truth is that not everyone will go down that path.
Players fail for a variety of reason that aren’t in their control — the coaching staff, depth chart, etc — but a lot of them also don’t have the desire and motivation. I’m sure you’ve watched someone, whether it’s in college or in the NBA, and didn’t think he was bound for greatness. But maybe that’s just me…
Writer of "When Kingdom Come" - http://blogcritics.org/sports/feature/when-kingdom-come | Twitter: @doktakra
I just think it's more than a little premature
To try to predict who will be a bust before they’ve played a single minute at the professional level.
It’s like going to an engagement party and predicting that the couple will be divorced in five years or less. Kind of tough to do, and really depressing to think about, but that might be just me.
And I wasn’t being sarcastic. My crystal ball really is in the shop. ;-p
StR Token Female
by LeaguePassAddict on Jun 22, 2010 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions
Fair enough
I respect where you’re coming from on this, but I think the analogy might be a little much, especially since like I said, these are multi-millionaires who most (or all) of us don’t know. I have nothing personal against any player, but I have an opinion based on what I’ve seen or just a gut feeling.
If I say I don’t think Hayward, Aldrih, or Al-Farouq Aminu will have prominent NBA careers, it doesn’t mean I want them to fail. But maybe I’m one of few people who takes a more pessimistic view and likes to be pleasantly surprised when I’m wrong (which is often). This is what Chad Ford and all the “experts” do incessantly before/during/after the Draft — they grade prospects and give their opinions on what kind of careers the players might have. Some are projected to be better than others…I don’t think it’s depressing — it’s just a part of the process.
Hope you get that crystal ball back before Thursday…
Writer of "When Kingdom Come" - http://blogcritics.org/sports/feature/when-kingdom-come | Twitter: @doktakra
And I wasn’t being sarcastic. My crystal ball really is in the shop
That’s too bad. I hear that’s your specialty LPA.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985......
Maybe we should adjust our stats to per36 years of age? -- ElRonToro
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
It’s getting a predictive GPS upgrade and a scratch-proof coating.
StR Token Female
by LeaguePassAddict on Jun 22, 2010 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions
Earl Clark? WTF? just cuz he didnt play dont mean he is a bust
Draft Day 2009: I was in a Detroit theater about to watch the Hangover when my cousin texted me telling me who the Suns had drafted. II texted him back asking him who the F*ck that was. I shed a tear and told myself: The Suns are going to suck next year and Amar'e is going to be traded and my life ruined. 12 Months later to the day I am looking back at the Suns incredible playoff run to the Western Conference Finals.
Besides he has MAJOR upside/potential
mark my words clark=more consistent odom
Draft Day 2009: I was in a Detroit theater about to watch the Hangover when my cousin texted me telling me who the Suns had drafted. II texted him back asking him who the F*ck that was. I shed a tear and told myself: The Suns are going to suck next year and Amar'e is going to be traded and my life ruined. 12 Months later to the day I am looking back at the Suns incredible playoff run to the Western Conference Finals.
Wow....just wow.
Truth is, on talent alone, and nothing else, I’d rank DMC 1st.
PookeyGuru- June 1, 2010.
lol, I'm very protective of my suns
Draft Day 2009: I was in a Detroit theater about to watch the Hangover when my cousin texted me telling me who the Suns had drafted. I texted him back asking him who the F*ck that was. I shed a tear and told myself: The Suns are going to suck next year and Amar'e is going to be traded and my life ruined. 12 Months later to the day I am looking back at the Suns incredible playoff run to the Western Conference Finals.
You may have sun blindness or heat stroke. : )
Truth is, on talent alone, and nothing else, I’d rank DMC 1st.
PookeyGuru- June 1, 2010.
but he is also very inconsistent
Draft Day 2009: I was in a Detroit theater about to watch the Hangover when my cousin texted me telling me who the Suns had drafted. I texted him back asking him who the F*ck that was. I shed a tear and told myself: The Suns are going to suck next year and Amar'e is going to be traded and my life ruined. 12 Months later to the day I am looking back at the Suns incredible playoff run to the Western Conference Finals.
And that's my point also
saying Clark is a consistent Odom is saying he’s a star basically. A consistent Lamar Odom would be a perennial all-star.
Screw you Knicks! LBJ to the Kings!!!
Earl Clark had top-5 talent but fell because of questions about his attitude and lack of fire.
The last time we had a draft pick they had similar attributes; super-athletic, but questionable work ethic, brilliant offensive game, but a lack of passion
That last lotto pick was stoudemire who won roy, and has made the all-star team 5 times out of a possible 7, so yes I am saying that clark can and will be a star one day in this league
Draft Day 2009: I was in a Detroit theater about to watch the Hangover when my cousin texted me telling me who the Suns had drafted. I texted him back asking him who the F*ck that was. I shed a tear and told myself: The Suns are going to suck next year and Amar'e is going to be traded and my life ruined. 12 Months later to the day I am looking back at the Suns incredible playoff run to the Western Conference Finals.
And bless you for saying that!
Donte Greené vs. Earl Clark — the race to the allstar game
Screw you Knicks! LBJ to the Kings!!!
If you cannot beat out a veteran like Grant Hill for playing time
Then you just might be a bust (AKA redneck).
Respectfully disagree
Hill is still performing at an NBA level for a team that won 56 games last year. Rookies usually have a much greater opportunity to step in for struggling teams. Clark may have logged more minutes last year had he landed in LA or Minny or Washington.
Clark may or may not pan out as a player. But it is way, way, way too early to hang a bust label on him.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
7.5 mins per game and a .371 shooting % leads me to say one word...
OUCH!
And you thought I was going to say BUST!
Seriously thou, Thabeet had better stats than that and he got sent to the D-League. Might be a smart move for Clark as well.
I know we all revere Section
But I think deifying him by calling him “thou” seems over-the-top, even to me.
StR Token Female
by LeaguePassAddict on Jun 23, 2010 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
So he had the same shooting percentage as Brandon Jennings,
and they were both better than Donté Greene as a rookie.
You pull your popcorn out of the microwave before it’s finished, don’t you? All I’m saying is that it is ridiculous to call Clark a bust this early in his career, in my humble opinion.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
Clark did go to the D-league; anyway, Hill provides on-court leadership that you cant expect to get from a rookie; also
jared dudley, lou amundson, dragic, and channing frye. That is a lot of bench players to fit into one rotation. Next season if clark does not average at least 7 ppg and 4rpg then you can start to question him. Other than that, being behind grant hill as well as being taught the ropes by him is very nonorable in my opinion; especially since Hill has worked so hard on remaining in the league
Draft Day 2009: I was in a Detroit theater about to watch the Hangover when my cousin texted me telling me who the Suns had drafted. I texted him back asking him who the F*ck that was. I shed a tear and told myself: The Suns are going to suck next year and Amar'e is going to be traded and my life ruined. 12 Months later to the day I am looking back at the Suns incredible playoff run to the Western Conference Finals.
I didn't say he was...
I debated leaving off the 2008 and 2009 picks for this very reason. I’m not saying these players are busts after one or two years — just that they come close to meeting their expectations as lottery picks. I mean, if the Kings draft a player who averages 2.7 points and 1.2 rebounds and gets sent down to the D-League, I don’t think many people will be raving about him (a la Donte Greene, who many people wan).
My questions here was about who will be that type of guy in this year’s Draft, regardless of how much future potential he may have…
Writer of "When Kingdom Come" - http://blogcritics.org/sports/feature/when-kingdom-come | Twitter: @doktakra
Sorry, gotcha now
Draft Day 2009: I was in a Detroit theater about to watch the Hangover when my cousin texted me telling me who the Suns had drafted. I texted him back asking him who the F*ck that was. I shed a tear and told myself: The Suns are going to suck next year and Amar'e is going to be traded and my life ruined. 12 Months later to the day I am looking back at the Suns incredible playoff run to the Western Conference Finals.
Re: Greene
That should’ve said something like “who many people were ready trade after his poor rookie year.”
Writer of "When Kingdom Come" - http://blogcritics.org/sports/feature/when-kingdom-come | Twitter: @doktakra
Interesting Draft Table at Basketball Reference
This draft table lists the draft order, the five best players ever picked at that position in terms of career win shares, the expectation in terms of career win shares associated with each pick number and the percentage of players chosen with that pick who ended up playing in the NBA.
The No. 1 pick is expected to have twice as much career impact as the No. 8 pick, which has twice the impact of the No. 22 pick, which has twice the impact of the No. 36 pick.
Former Kings who made the best five ever at a specific draft position include Otis Thorpe, Peja Stojakovic, Hedo Turkoglu, Doug Christie, Kevin Martin and Gerald Wallace.
"I know we certainly gave up a lot to get him, but we do have other players on the perimeter who we can plug in. We haven’t had anybody who we feel is a go-to guy in the post. So we gave up a lot to get a lot, and we’re real excited about adding Carl." - Paul Westphal
Love that chart, thanks for linking
"Matt Cain's better at this than I've ever been at anything in my life. He's better at this than you'll ever be, at anything. Matt Cain has a gift. He has a gift, and when you acknowledge that, then maybe we will have something to talk about."
What would be nice to add would be
How many years the average player at that position, which would lead to win shares per year, which would then allow you to measure the expectations and production of current players. So then, when you are trying to compare Petrie to other GMs in terms of draft picks, you have some hardcore numbers to do it with.
"I know we certainly gave up a lot to get him, but we do have other players on the perimeter who we can plug in. We haven’t had anybody who we feel is a go-to guy in the post. So we gave up a lot to get a lot, and we’re real excited about adding Carl." - Paul Westphal
I think Udoh will be a bust.
Not sure why I think this, but when I watch this guy’s highlights I just don’t see him doing well in the NBA.
I think Bledsoe will be a top 10 player from this draft.
Using your very loose defination almost all rookies are "busts"
The top rookies that made a significant impacts for their teams are almost all all – stars or higher. ’Reke’s numbers while not quite in Magic Johnson’s category are excellent. I’ll give you Joe Alexander, I doubt he ever plays in the NBA again. I somehow missed Quincy Douby on your list but the last time I looked he was tearing it up in Turkey. Almost every player drafted in the second round will be a bust with the obvious exceptions and those exceptions give both GM’s and fans hope that their pick might be “the” pick that proves the exception to the rule.
Most of the players that we and every fan base are passionately arguing about right now will ultimately make far less of a contribution than they are given credit for right now. But I do get the point of your post, so my guess of who will be the biggest bust of this draft is Daniel Orton.
"I make love to pressure" - Stephen Jackson
I limited it to lottery picks
Since they’re usually the players expected to help losing teams and usually get major minutes. More than half of all 2nd rounders don’t even play in the NBA, so that’s a whole different argument…
They don’t have to be “stars,” but do enough to give reason for optimism, at the very least. James Harden didn’t light the world on fire, but he has the makings of a solid player. I can’t say as much about a lot of the other guys on the above list.
Agreed on Orton, especially if someone takes him way too early.
Writer of "When Kingdom Come" - http://blogcritics.org/sports/feature/when-kingdom-come | Twitter: @doktakra
The reply button is your friend.
StR Token Female
by LeaguePassAddict on Jun 22, 2010 7:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, thanks...
I’m still getting used to this whole commeting thing.
Writer of "When Kingdom Come" - http://blogcritics.org/sports/feature/when-kingdom-come | Twitter: @doktakra
has anyone ever seen
ndudi ebi and “al-farouq aminu” in the same room together?
I rest my case
by lchristmas on Jun 22, 2010 9:25 PM PDT via mobile reply actions

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