Hollinger's odd draft board

It's based on a combination of his numerical system (mostly) and his subjective opinion (to a lesser extent). It goes:

1. Wall
2. Turner
3. Cousins
4. Monroe
5. Favors
...
11. Johnson
...

almost 2 years ago twasserm 9 comments 0 recs |

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That's the subjective draft board

His Draft Rating board is:

Cousins
Turner
Wall
Monroe
Favors

#vfettkefordraft

by vfettke on Jun 22, 2010 2:07 PM PDT reply actions

He guesses what NBA player the draft prospect most resembles than borrows that NBA players numbers for his statistical analysis. I used to fall hard for Hollinger’s draft table before I found out this tidbit of information, doesn’t make his process much of science at all.

by bignerd on Jun 22, 2010 2:19 PM PDT reply actions

Disagree.

As I understand it, the concept behind his system is similar to the concept behind Dalt’s. He designs a numerical system that looks at how previous drafted players’ college numbers predicted their NBA performance. So yes, past players’ performance is figured in, but it doesn’t just match a single prospect to a single past player; the past players’ performance is just used to determine what the formula should be for translating numerical collegiate performance to numerical pro performance.

I could be wrong, but that’s how I understand it.

by twasserm on Jun 22, 2010 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions

That is correct, that's part of his formula

Still the part I mentioned is another factor in his equation, it’s a big enough factor to make me question his final results. For instance, his final score for a PG prospect is going to be heavily determined if he feels the player will perform more Russell Westbrook or Mike Conley.

by bignerd on Jun 22, 2010 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions

never doubt science!

by betweentheeyes on Jun 22, 2010 2:35 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs

And there's no Patterson in the 1st round

or Whiteside.

by ZenBaller on Jun 22, 2010 2:40 PM PDT reply actions

Though, how many of us would complain if Favors fell to us at #5?

Knowing StR, probably 50%.

This.

by elfboy_ on Jun 22, 2010 3:11 PM PDT reply actions

which 50%?

because 100% are right. Once the guy becomes available the flaws stand out and peeps start to covet the guy the Kings passed on, or the guy that was drafted just before the Kings made their choice.

Just like how these rookies seem so much more attractive than established talent (i.e. Cisco, JT, etc.), One game performances become landmark statements. Workouts trump season’s performances. Combine results are substituted for basketball skill. And of course, as your comment made consider: Everyone is an expert! (“Everyone knows that Monroe blows”)

I Love the Draft!

by betweentheeyes on Jun 22, 2010 4:06 PM PDT up reply actions

i think that Chad Ford finally found someone

that he is smarter than.

"I have missed more than 9000 shots in my career. I have lost almost 300 games. On 26 occasions I have been entrusted to take the game winning shot...and missed. And I have failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why... I succeed." Michael Jordan.

by Surprise Team on Jun 22, 2010 3:38 PM PDT reply actions