Previewing the ROY and All Rookie Team Races

Yeah, it's very early.  But try telling me this isn't already way too much fun to start thinking about.  My rankings and thoughts below the jump.  It's worth noting up front though that this is not my projection of these player's long term value, only how they will fare this year.

1 - John Wall - People worry about Arenas, but other than the oft injured Arenas and Blatche they have no one else who can create.  I'm not too worried about Arenas either, even if he doesn't get hurt, the Wizards just used the #1 pick on Wall and are building around him.  He will get every opportunity possible to shine. 

2 - Blake Griffin - Still a monster, but will lose touches to Davis, Gordon and Kaman.  Still should have a monster year, but not sure he beats Wall.

3 - DeMarcus Cousins - Like Griffin, will lose touches to his teammates.  However, Sac will also get him his touches and his ability to finish and board means he's get a number of easy conversion opportunities and put backs.  Unlike the short armed Griffin, should get 1.5 blk a game as well.

4 - Evan Turner - Could easily flip him and Cousins, but will really depend on Turner's usage.  If the 76ers use AI, Williams, Speights, to create the offense than Turenr's lack of an outside shot probably limits his production.  If they feature Turner, he should produce enough to beat out Cousins.

5 - Jordan Crawford - This one is completely dependent on Joe Johnson leaving Atlanta.  If that happens than Crawford is suddenly a 6th man on a team who's only players who can create their own shots are Crawford, Teague and Horford.  In this lineup I'd imagine Crawford would get a ton of useage and minutes.  Whatever his long term value ends up being, he has a great chance to put up stats next year.

6 - Wesley Johnson - Probably a better player than Crawford, so this is not an insult, more about minutes and usage.  The Wolves loaded up on SFs and still have Corey Brewer.  In other words, even if Johnson plays efficiently he may not get the minutes at first to match the others' stats.  However, as the season goes on and Cousins, Crawford and others Khan passed on start playing well, I expect there will be pressure to get WJ minutes.

7 - Derrick Favors - May be raw, but has enough talent and will have enough opportunities to at least finish at 7.  I mean, I'd at least expect 10-7-2blk out of him this year.

8 - Ed Davis - Again, this assumes Bosh leaves.  If so he gets the lion's share of minutes in the front court with Bargnani.  This also means he'll be the primary rebounder, since that is not Bargnani's strength.  Just ask Biedren's what that can do for your rebounding numbers.

9 - Greg Monroe - Will get plenty of opportunities and minutes and has enough skill to put up some decent stats. 

10 - Luke Babbit - With Webster and Outlaw gone, Babbit should get the most minutes behind Batum.  Offensive stats tend to win over All Rookie Team voters.  That's Babbit's strong suit. 

Others to Keep and Eye On

Eric Bledsoe - Would take a Baron injury, but that's not uncommon.  If Baron goes down, Bledsoe should get enough usage to put himself in the discussion for one of the All Rookie teams.

Andy Rautins - I know laugh.  But he's a good shooter and passer with limited defensive skills.  Well, in D' Antoni's system those qualities are rewarded.  Also consider the Knicks gave ample time to Tony Douglas at PG last year.  If Rautins gets minutes, he could surprise people and put up stats in that offense.

Xavier Henry - If Gay leaves, he will get enough usage in Memphis to get on the 2nd all rookie team. 

Cole Aldrich - Was so overrated that now he might be underrated.  If he gets minutes on the Thunder front line, mini-PBilla could conceivably put up 8-8-2blk getting his points off dunks and o-boards.

Paul George - Noting like a player with a poor motor and bad shot selection.  Could surprise and put up good stats on a bad team, especially if Granger gets hurt.  Seems like a very realistic scenario though, so I have to stick him here.

I Guess I Should At Least Mention

Ekpe Udoh - Meh.  In a Nelson offense could get stats if he gets minutes.  But not sold on his skills.  He's a weak rebounder who can't really create his own shot and doesn't have a powerful enough base to be a great post defender.  Should also be battling Randolph, Wright, Biedrens, Tolliver and Turiaf for minutes.

Al-Farouq Aminu - Reminecsant of Gerald Wallace as a rookie.  No jump shot and can't create his own shot, but should have 3-5 of the top rookie dunks of the year.  Should also put up some decent rebound and defensive numbers.

Gordon Hayward - Nothing like a player with poor lateral quickness and a slow first step to get you excited.  After watching him have trouble consistently do anything against Duke, I think Butler's exciting tournament run obscured the fact that Hayward doesn't have any great NBA skills.  Was a good shooter his freshman year, so that could return, but not expecting much else.

Patrick Patterson - Should be a good contributor.  However, with Yao, Scola, Hayes, Buddinger and Hill he'll battle for minutes, much less statistics.

Craig Brackins - Intriguing possibility in NO with Paul setting up easy opportunities.  However, he's not much of a rebounder or shot blocker, so I'm doubtful he puts up the stats needed as a rookie to enter into the discussion.

Hassan Whiteside – Likely to see few minutes this year and probably have a couple of stints in the D-League.  Still, he will get some minutes and will tantalize fantasy owners and Kings fans as he gives us around 3 games with 4+ blocks.  However, this year is likely to be more of a preview of things to come.