Road Worriers: Early Schedule Hasn't Been Kind to Kings
by Tom Ziller on Jul 28, 2010 12:17 PM PDT
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PrintEvery season since 2004-05 has, for the Kings, begun with a road trip of at least three games. The road is tough, even for the league's best teams. In the NBA, studies have shown teams beat evenly matched squads 60 percent of the time at home. It follows, then, that road teams beat evenly matched squads only 40 percent of the time. It comes out to roughly a 3-point advantage.
Let's not pretend the Kings have been "good" over the past six seasons, a span which includes two playoff berths, the entire Eric Musselman-Reggie Theus era, and the worst season in franchise history. In 2004-05, the Kings won the West's sixth seed despite the midseason trade of Chris Webber and a brutalizing injury to Brad Miller (the real talisman that season). But the Sonics, thanks to Ray Allen on Garbage Bag James, whipped the Kings 4-1. In 2005-06, a midseason trade for Ron Artest helped save the campaign and land Sacramento into the playoffs as an eighth seed; the Kings, behind Bonzi Wells and Kevin Martin, tested the Spurs before falling 4-2. Since then, the high-water mark has been 38 wins. The team has desperately needed a nicotine winning patch, or 30.
But while the Kings have not been good over the last six years, the early schedule certainly hasn't helped. In those opening road trips -- one of which the Kings have faced in every of the past six years -- the Kings are a combined 2-17. Here's the breakdown:
|
Year |
Record |
|
2004-05 |
0-3 |
|
2005-06 |
1-2 |
|
2006-07 |
1-2 |
|
2007-08 |
0-3 |
|
2008-09 |
0-4 |
|
2009-10 |
0-3 |
The best start the Kings have had in the past six years is 1-2. (You may remember the 2006-07 road win at Minnesota, which included a jubilent Eric Musselman, post-DUI, embracing his bewildered players. Sadly, Muss was psychic, and that was one of the season's high points.)
Now, you may think, "Well, hmph, the Kings suck anyway, so it doesn't matter if they have to start on the road, because they'd lose at home, too! Hurf durf."
Not quite.
With one unsurprising exception, the Kings have been great at home in November over the past six years. Take a look at the team's record in each season's first 10 home games:
|
Year |
Home Start |
|
2004-05 |
9-1 |
|
2005-06 |
6-4 |
|
2006-07 |
6-4 |
|
2007-08 |
7-3 |
|
2008-09 |
3-7 |
|
2009-10 |
8-2 |
The dreadful 2008-09 season aside, the Kings have done pretty well at home early; last year's 8-2 start at ARCO Arena particularly stands out, given that includes a third of all Kings wins over the course of the season. The Kings obviously been as good on the road early in each season. The combined record for 10-game road starts over the last six years is 15-45. (That includes those dastardly season-starting road trips.)
Why does it matter? As the talking heads say, you play 41 at home and 41 on the road, and you play, essentially, the same schedule as every other team in your conference. The schedule, in the end, comes out even. (In fact, there's a belief in some corners momentum isn't even real at the NBA level. I'd disagree -- confidence is a real phenomenon, in my opinion, and while I trust the science on hot streaks I'm not currently willing to dismiss the impact of confidence on athletes.)
Where it matters is in fan confidence, and one step further, attendance. Going into the past three home openers, the Kings have been 0-3, 0-4 and 0-3. That stings. The schedule-makers in Secaucus (and, ahem, Bristol, if we're being honest) can't conjure an early-season winning record for the Kings. But they could offer a little help in the way of ending the long streak of season-opening road trips. The schedule will be out next week; we'll see if the Kings get an early break this time around.
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Seems like as long as I can remember, we get hit with the Texas Triangle to start things off.
Not like any of those teams are pushovers, either.
Rocks are free, and slingshots easily stolen. And for a limited time, every third person who follows me on Twitter (andy_sims) gets a free ice cream cone.
Which I will eat.
The reason the Kings start on the road....
Is because for the past five seasons Disney on Ice has been at ARCO the first week of the season, thus the arena is not available. As long as the arena is not available they can’t open at home.
I guess the owners of the arena would have to decide to do things differently in order to not start off the season this way.
Rocks are free, and slingshots easily stolen. And for a limited time, every third person who follows me on Twitter (andy_sims) gets a free ice cream cone.
Which I will eat.
Why do the Kings start every year on the road?
"Dodger fans aren’t happy when foul balls get into their section, because it interferes with their playing with the beachball"- Mike Krukow
The whole fuckin' world is against us dude, I swear to God
#vfettkefordraft
by vfettke on Jul 28, 2010 12:31 PM PDT reply actions 7 recs
reek #5 for the green!
’cause Jay is all about the green.
Sound the trumpets, Raise the drawbridge, and drop the Oldsmobile
I don't know if anyone else has heard this
but a few weeks ago, Grant was saying on his radio show that the Kings were trying to open the season at home and moved around some other events that usually occur at Arco so the arena would be available for the Kings. Unfortunately, the NBA decided to start the season a week earlier that normal, so the Kings will be on the road to start the season again.
"For five decades (and counting), these fans have been blessed with West, Baylor, Wilt, Kareem, Magic, Shaq and Kobe. Seven of the 15 best players ever. At some point, the gravy train will end. The Lakers will bottom out like the Knicks did last decade, submarined by bad moves, poor signings and unlucky drafts. Their fans will flee in droves. Jack will pass away. The buzz will be gone. That's how the NBA works -- in a 30-team league, you can't always get lucky, not even if you're a big-market team with deep pockets. I don't know if that day is three years off or 30, but it's coming." Bill Simmons
Grant is soft for suggesting that the Kings should be able to start the season at home.
Rocks are free, and slingshots easily stolen. And for a limited time, every third person who follows me on Twitter (andy_sims) gets a free ice cream cone.
Which I will eat.
by andy sims on Jul 28, 2010 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
I think one big home win to start the season with send Reke and Boogie's swagger levels to supernova status and carry us to a .500 record on the year
But chances are the Kings will open in LA for the [redacted]’s ring ceremony.
#vfettkefordraft
by vfettke on Jul 28, 2010 12:34 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
You should've seen the suns' road schedule last year; 17 of their first 24 games were on the road.
In that stretch they went 14-3 and after that they went 12-18, and after that they went 28-7
For every sunset, there will always be a sunrise.
coincidentally, that 28-7 was when amar'e averaged 30-10-2 for the suns
For every sunset, there will always be a sunrise.
Honestly, I think it helped them a bit
Their schedule towards the end had a lot of home games, allowing them to finish strong. They had the best record in the NBA after the All Star break. That definitely carried into the playoffs.
#vfettkefordraft
I kind of agree, but the lakers player t9 of 24 games at home, that really pissed me off.
For every sunset, there will always be a sunrise.
What I particularly dislike about opening the season with long road trips
is that you can get a lot of other teams’ home openers. Their crowds and teams come particularly amped for those games, and it’s hard to win in that environment. I wonder if homecourt might be worth more than three points for a season opener.
I’m too lazy to look up old schedules, but I feel like we’ve faced three teams’ home openers in a row some years.
by twasserm on Jul 28, 2010 12:44 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
YES!
This does not get enough press. Teams almost always win their home opener. I remember a few years ago, not only did we open with the Texas triangle, but it was all 3 of their home openers. 0-3, ufck.
Wait....Why is everybody clapping? Everyone around me is clapping.... I guess I should be clapping too... GO LAKERS!!! I hate living in So Cal
by 27freethrows on Jul 28, 2010 8:27 PM PDT up reply actions
Excellent points. Reke'd
If you want to be your best, you have to do your best, otherwise you are only second rate.
It seems like the answer is for the Kings to crush the teams they face on their 1st road trip
then come home to a full house of excited fans and continue on to a 82 game winning season.
"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
The greatest impact player in NBA History - Tim Donaghy
by HighTops on Jul 28, 2010 1:06 PM PDT reply actions 3 recs
Yes. It is.
Reke can average a triple double this year, with DMC being a 20-10 guy. Casspi learns how to use his Krav Maga training on the court, Donte becomes the defensive equivalent of Kevin Durant, and Whiteside averages a double double (10 blocks/game, 10 pounds gained/week).
Oh yes. The leaders of the region somehow agree on a plan to build a new arena in the railyards, public transportation to and from the venue is created, and the downtown economy explodes.
Also, all babies will be born of rainbows to golden streets with jubilant fanfare in times of world peace.
Yes….this all falls under our master plan.
by clicc916 on Jul 28, 2010 3:22 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
I'll drink that Kool-Aid
Sign me up for all of this clicc916. I can’t wait until the season really starts after 6 road games – 3 in texas, two in LA, and 1 in Oakland – wherein the Kings go 2-4 defeating the Rockets and Warriors but losing horribly to the LA Clippers after taking the Fakers to double overtime. Then, and only then, will the Kings begin to show us who they are (the #8 seed in the West BTW).
Toyota 4Runner with Kings record on the back . . . Anybody else want to give me crap about it????
by Record_on_SUV on Jul 28, 2010 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions
haha
Act like a sober human being, not a drunk Internet username. -- Brian Galliford
by NorCal BillsFan on Jul 28, 2010 6:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Rec'd for this
Whiteside averages a double double (10 blocks/game, 10 pounds gained/week).
By my math, by the end of the year, Whiteside may weigh nearly 100lbs
Act like a sober human being, not a drunk Internet username. -- Brian Galliford
by NorCal BillsFan on Jul 28, 2010 6:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Starting the season on the road sucks
because you wind up playing in a lot of other team’s home openers. The added delays and pomp and circumstance certainly don’t help a visiting team, especially a young one (and if a team is hoisting a championship banner or an opposing player is receiving some sort of award, it’s even worse.
In a perfect world, you would host one home opener and be on the road for one home opener. But for the past few years, the Kings have been road fodder for 3-4 home openers each year. That certainly has not cost us a playoff birth, but it sucks nonetheless.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
Big difference -
He’s too lazy to look up old schedules, while I’m too lazy to look at current threads.
SACTOWN ROYALTY - Try our thick creamy shakes!
I wouldn't mind starting the season in L.A.
Actually I would love it. You know it will be a TNT game. If I was an opposing team watching this crapfest I would be thinking about nothing but smashing the Lakers on national TV.
I love beating dead horses.
by allbenji's on Jul 28, 2010 3:46 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Not a bad idea
Plus it’d give Darnell Jackson a chance to become a Sacramento legend by running up and punching Rick Fox in the face during the ring ceremony that we all know he’ll be in attendance for since he has nothing better to do… other than Eliza Dushku. Anyone else find it funny that even his hot girlfriend’s name has the word “douche” in it?
#vfettkefordraft
He who nails that, laughs last.
Doug Christie may have hit him, but Fox is hitting this:
Sorry, he wins.
Rocks are free, and slingshots easily stolen. And for a limited time, every third person who follows me on Twitter (andy_sims) gets a free ice cream cone.
Which I will eat.
Just another reason to hate him.
Author of the Pick and Scroll. Follow me on Twitter here.
by Aykis16 on Jul 28, 2010 4:27 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Envy is an ugly, ugly emotion.
Rocks are free, and slingshots easily stolen. And for a limited time, every third person who follows me on Twitter (andy_sims) gets a free ice cream cone.
Which I will eat.
Rick Fox is just ugly.
Author of the Pick and Scroll. Follow me on Twitter here.
by Aykis16 on Jul 28, 2010 7:50 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
This should be a league rule.
you would host one home opener and be on the road for one home opener
If you want to be your best, you have to do your best, otherwise you are only second rate.
Sound the trumpets, Raise the drawbridge, and drop the Oldsmobile
by Balky Needs on Jul 28, 2010 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions 5 recs
Is that a double hero?
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"If cats looked like frogs, we’d realize what nasty, cruel little bastards they are. Style. That’s what people remember." —Terry Pratchett
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Donte'd
Because talent? You want to add a guy like boozer because hes talented? I’m sorry i just don’t see that as a valid reason. -- fffindeed
by wallywagon11 on Jul 30, 2010 8:59 AM PDT up reply actions
not only starting on the road, but I remember for 3 of the teams it was there home opener
Which makes it even tougher to win in my opinion. I know all teams play 41 at home 41 on the road, but there is something to be said about the mental momentum that gets taken away when you start on the road. Each team has great optimism right before the season starts, but if you lose the first 3 road games teams seem a bit deflated. They start thinking its going to be more of the same.
Another thing I think is funny is how each year it seems every team says "THIS WILL BE THE YEAR WE WILL RUN MORE AND GET MORE FAST BREAK OPPORTUNITIES. Then the season starts and it’s the same as it ever was. Nothing like the beginning of the year optimism!
Ba-da
We're likely starting on the road again this year too.
Nothing we can really do about it, the team just needs to go in realizing that its going to be tough, and play their hearts out (which they definitely did in most games this year).
And by the way, how freaking ripped does Reke look in that picture. As a rookie.
Author of the Pick and Scroll. Follow me on Twitter here.
He looks ripped alright, but you have got to feel for the guy on the receiving end of that right elbow.
"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
The greatest impact player in NBA History - Tim Donaghy
Calm down Aileen
And by the way, how freaking ripped does Reke look in that picture. As a rookie.
" 1 + 1 = 3 " - David Kahn
by Shizzo on Jul 28, 2010 4:55 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
And only 19.
Check his ID, and cut him in half & count his rings.
Rocks are free, and slingshots easily stolen. And for a limited time, every third person who follows me on Twitter (andy_sims) gets a free ice cream cone.
Which I will eat.
by andy sims on Jul 28, 2010 5:01 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
In retrospect, I should've added a /voisin tag.
Author of the Pick and Scroll. Follow me on Twitter here.
I don't think it matters.
You can argue playing for a road teams opener hurts, but so what? Teams play better in the NBA at home than they do on the road. Only the top teams tend to have a great road record.
You gotta play 41 at home and on the road unless you’re the Clippers and Lakers. (And in the Lakers case, they get 41 home games and 2 neutral games. The Clippers get 39 home games, 2 neutral games and 41 road games. Yes, I blame Donald Sterling.) At any rate, when you go on the road it’s tough. The Kings struggled on the road all year long with the exception of mid December. That happens with young teams. It’s going to happen as long as the NBA continues to exist.
Much ado about nothing me thinks.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
Those are definitely not neutral games. There are easily 95% laker fans sitting in the stands
Clippers: 39 home games, 43 road games
Lakers: 43 home games, 39 road games
" 1 + 1 = 3 " - David Kahn
Okay
That’s still Sterling’s fault. I was trying to take a completely neutral POV.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
I think you make a good point about the fanbase.
The first home game just doesn’t have the same feel when you’re 1-2 or 0-3. When it’s 0-0 all of the hope is still alive. All of the possibilities. All of the energy. After two or three losses to start with, the home opener loses it’s luster. Fans start thinking, “Well, here comes another year of the losing.”
With a 0-0 record, fans are cheering for their team in a close game. At 0-3, they’re already assuming the worst. Close games with that record are no longer something to cheer for, but something to sit on your hands about. Something to worry about. Something to be pessimistic about.
And I don’t think it matters if you went 0-3 against the best of the NBA or the worst, that same feeling is there. It takes a lot for a fanbase to overcome pessimism. Fortunately, I think the promise of Tyreke Evans and DeMarcus Cousins can do that. 0-3 would still be rough, but overcoming the pessimism of the consecutive losing seasons is even tougher. But hope does wonderful things. Hope turns around franchises. Hope makes a 39-43 season something to be thankful for.
And that’s why I think it’s about time that the Kings got to play at home for opening night. A clean slate and a fresh start. Hope upon hope. With that, I think opening night in Arco Arena might be one that goes down in Kings history. The night that hope overcame all. And if the Kings can win on that night, what a wave of momentum that would be.
"[S]ince men enjoyed very great leisure, they used it to pursue many kinds of commodities unknown to their fathers, and that was that first yoke they placed upon themselves without thinking about it, and the first source of evils the prepared for their descendants. For, besides continuing thus to soften body and mind, as these commodities had lost almost all their pleasantness through habit, and as they had at the same time degenerated into true needs, being deprived of them became much more cruel than possessing them was sweet; and people were unhappy to lose them without being happy to have them." -Jean-Jacques Rousseau
by T Darkstar on Jul 28, 2010 9:31 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Perhaps assignments of opening nights could work like the lottery.
And that’s why I think it’s about time that the Kings got to play at home for opening night. A clean slate and a fresh start.
Those teams in the bottom half of the previous season, would get the home court advantage for their first game to help them get off to a good start. It is a small concession and shouldn’t be a big deal for the top teams. In addition, I would also say that for the first four games, no more than two should be away games.
If you want to be your best, you have to do your best, otherwise you are only second rate.
More succinctly, lottery teams get the home court advantage on opening night to showcase their new lottery pick.
If you want to be your best, you have to do your best, otherwise you are only second rate.
Reke'd
confidence is a real phenomenon, in my opinion, and while I trust the science on hot streaks I’m not currently willing to dismiss the impact of confidence on athletes.
I couldn’t agree with you more. Paul Westphal has mentioned the importance of having the momentum going a team’s way.
If you want to be your best, you have to do your best, otherwise you are only second rate.
Life Ain't Fair
Fantastic point, Tom. We are due for some serious good schedule karma to open things up! And conveniently, the Lakers always seem to start out with three trash bags at Staples to find themselves.
I Came, I Saw, I Conquered.
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