30Q: Can the Kings Be Elite Offensive Rebounders?
by Tom Ziller on Aug 24, 2010 2:28 PM PDT
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PrintWe're asking 30 questions about the Kings' 2010-11 season.
Last season, the Kings finished sixth in the league in offensive rebounding. That performance was the best it had been in years. This was with Spencer Hawes, Jason Thompson, Sean May, Andres Nocioni, Jon Brockman and, for half a season, Carl Landry manning the frontcourt.
Things have changed up front. Samuel Dalembert, one of the best rebounders in the league, has replaced Hawes. Hassan Whiteside has replaced Brockman (a world-beating offensive rebounder) and May at the back of the rotation. DeMarcus Cousins has been added. There will no more small forward-masquerading-as-power forward nonsense. This is a longer, stronger, more athletic frontcourt.
How will that affect the offensive rebounding?
After the jump, I break it down based on the different frontcourt combinations' rebounding expectations.
For veterans, I used last season's rebounding performance as the data here. For the two rookies, I took about 15 percent off their college performance. It's a rough approximation -- good enough for our purposes and in line with what each did at Vegas Summer League.
For the backcourt, we'll use the default Tyreke Evans-Beno Udrih pairing. This will make our projections somewhat conservative -- Francisco Garcia is a better rebounder than Udrih -- but it's the default heading into the season, so there you have it. For the small forward position, I'm spliting the difference between Omri Casspi and Donte Greene, who should see similar minutes no matter who starts.
Here are the most likely combinations.
The combos I expect most frequently are on the left, moving down to the least common. "Lan" is Carl Landry, "Dal" is Samuel Dalembert, "DMC" is DeMarcus Cousins, "JT" is Jason Thompson and "WS" is Hassan Whiteside.
Seven of the nine combos would be projected to beat the league average for offensive rebounding. Six of the combos -- including expected pairings Landry-Cousins, Thompson-Dalembert and Thompson-Cousins -- would rate comparably with the league's best offensive rebounding team last season, the Grizzlies. Cousins-Dalembert would break the scales. The only expected unit projected worse than league average includes Landry-Thompson ... but that unit is basically at league average.
Assuming everyone rebounds on offense as they have (in the NBA or college), we can expect the Kings to get plenty of offensive rebounds game after game, and it wouldn't be a surprise if they finished in the top three in the league in the category. Including either Cousins or Dalembert in any line-up projects the unit to rebound offensively better than league average, and in the other non-Whiteside case -- Landry-Thompson -- the difference is negligible. The big upgrades since last season have certainly bolstered the team's offensive rebounding.
***
Why didn't I do this for defensive rebounding? With offensive rebounding, there is really no such thing as diminishing returns. Having two awesome offensive rebounders on the floor doesn't usually result in the pair taking offensive rebounds away from each other -- they take rebounds away from the opponents.
That's not the case on defense, where there are substantial diminishing returns. Adding good defensive rebounders will help, but it's not simple addition. In other words: no, Cousins-Dalembert won't hold opponents to one offensive rebound in every 10 opportunities. (That's what a projection similar to the offensive rebounding one says. It's not right.) On defense, let's surmise we'll be improved. To what degree is more a guess than an estimate.
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What a wonderful thing
To ponder the concept of a well-above-average rebounding Kings team. My only concern is that we may shoot 70% from the field, which would really put a dent in our opportunities to get offensive boards.
But I could live with it.
Rocks are free, and slingshots easily stolen. And for a limited time, every third person who follows me on Twitter (andy_sims) gets a free ice cream cone.
Which I will eat.
by andy sims on Aug 24, 2010 2:52 PM PDT reply actions 6 recs
Haha!
What if we shoot 70 percent and are still well above avg reb team! We will be winning games 140-70
Can't wait for October
by KingsFanInPortland on Aug 24, 2010 3:18 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I remember that
last year Reke tied LeBron for 1st in the number of made baskets at rim…maybe attempts, too. But there is certainly going to be an abundance of Reke layup attempts that fall off the rim for Dally and Boogie to gobble up and throw down. Reke’s ability to get to the rim and collapse a defense was probably one of the reasons we ranked so high in offensive boards…that and the fact that we have/had good offensive rebounders who don’t/didn’t finish well around the rim (JT, mostly).
If I remember correctly, the majority of the times Reke went to the rim, we cleared out all our bigs.
or am I misremebering the 1-4 Flat?
"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
The greatest impact player in NBA History - Tim Donaghy
Top 5 is a lock in my opinion
My belief is that if the prediction/projection is true it becomes nearly impossible not to win at least 4 or 5 more games based on that alone.
We did OK in rebounding last season, a real improvemnt, but I remember multiple games in which we just got out rebounded in crunch time and it cost us a number of games. I just don’t see that happening much anymore.
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
Another positive:
Three out of our four big men (Dalembert, DMC, and Landry) are good finishers around the basket who will actually score after offensive rebounds. Last year that wasn’t the case as Hawes would throw up too many wussy shots around the basket and Brockman simply didn’t have the height or hops to challenge big men. If there’s a stat of player x scoring right after offensive rebound, the Kings big men should really improve in that stat compared to last year.
smell the ashes
by iamstern'skippah! on Aug 24, 2010 3:33 PM PDT reply actions 4 recs
Nice breakdown
having something new to read everyday is great. Thank you!
by 9K1NGS on Aug 24, 2010 4:50 PM PDT reply actions 3 recs
Hoopdata has use in 6th place last season in Offensive Rebounding Rate
Memphis was 1st, followed by Det & Okc. Last season we actually had more Offensive Rebounds than OKC, 977 to 960. But that’s because we took 266 more shots and had 185 more opportunities to rebound off our missed shots.
But, to rebound at the same rate as OKC last season we would have only needed 0.4 more offensive rebounds per game. We also would have needed 1.1 to beat out Detroit for 2nd, and 1.6 more per game to beat out Memphis for 1st. So, moving into the top 3 is highly likely with our added length in the paint.
Not to be a downer, but if we had been 1st last season, the added rebounds would only have increased our pts per game from 1.4-1.9 ppg depending on how many lead to a 3-pt shoot. Additionally, a 1% improvement in our shooting percentage would have added 1.0 ppg. And, we were 19th in shooting percentage, a tenth of a point ahead of the Clippers and Knicks. So hopefully, with a couple more players who can score at a high rate in the paint like Carl, will improve our shooting percentage even without an increase in offensive rebounds.
I don’t want to down play the importance of Offensive Rebounding, but we were 6th last season with JT & Spencer. So, it’s highly likely that Dalembert & Cousins are more than likely going to take offensive rebounds away from other Kings besides possible taking Defensive Rebounds away from our opponents. How many of each and how many more baskets are made of their putbacks will determine if we improve or not.
"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
The greatest impact player in NBA History - Tim Donaghy
by HighTops on Aug 24, 2010 5:16 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
More rebounds = more shots, more shots= more points, more points = more wins
That’s why I think the Kings could possibly make the playoffs this coming year.
I think Sacramento's D is well rounded
Tyreke’s a beast on D, and the additions of Dalembert/Cousins, with Donte working on his D, makes this a decent team on defense.
O boards do increase scoring opportunities and thus scoring
They increase the defense less possession time for the opponent and the immeasurable effect of demoralizing the defense by making them work longer and harder – which ain’t fun. Against a team that runs, like the Suns and Dubs limiting their possession opportunities is particularly effective.
And it should also be noted that Offensive rebounds are a part of the box model.
Boxes on the rebound are awsome
Umm... I thought we were officially referring to Voison as the Chick Replacing Amick at the Paper? or CRAP, for short.
by sac_faithful on Aug 24, 2010 7:30 PM PDT up reply actions
Good thoughts
I was thinking about limiting the fast breaks of other teams. Making them work for their baskets is definitely great.
I didn't major in Common F-cking Sense, but ...
The JT/DMC column is the one that stands out to me...
Something to keep in mind when the Kings consider resigning Landry…
by getPGwithbounce on Aug 24, 2010 9:22 PM PDT reply actions
and another thing....
Cousins should start over Dalembert and you stick Dalembert in when Boogie is in foul trouble…
by getPGwithbounce on Aug 24, 2010 9:24 PM PDT up reply actions
And w/DMC being a rookie...
foul trouble could/will probably come early…
Purveyor of Bull Plop
and often
Can't wait for October
by KingsFanInPortland on Aug 25, 2010 1:43 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Maybe we should trade for a shooter
Maybe we should trade Landry for say… Kevin Martin. Kidding aside, I really like Hassan Whiteside’s potential & would love to see him in the rotation. Rookie DPOY if he were guaranteed starter minutes.
My thing with offensive rebounds is that they are a sexy idea....
…that falls short of mattering in practical reality. Teams that are in the top 10 in o-reb% doesn’t necessarily correlate to victories. If anything, it said the Kings were not very good finishers inside. I do think the Kings will improve at offensive rebounding for 2 reasons: Dalembert doesn’t need plays run for him (which may be something he’ll need to figure out) and Cousins will take up space drawing attention and creating opportunities.
To me, offensive rebounding is a nice bonus rather than an essential part of the offense. If O boarding is so critical to victories, how did Rick Adelman nearly 400 games in Sacramento?
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
by pookeyguru on Aug 24, 2010 11:10 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Excellent point, only 8 of the top 16 teams in Offensive Rebounding Rate made the Playoffs last season
Cle was 21st and Bos was 28th, Orl was 25th and LAL was 7th, one place behind the Kings who were 6th.
"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
The greatest impact player in NBA History - Tim Donaghy
Great Stats
Hard to argue with those facts. But that may show their shooting percentages are higher and the need for the O boards are not as frequent.
Then you should like this
Only 8 ot the top 16 teams that scored the most baskets at the rim made the playoffs last season. The KIngs were tied for 6th, and the LAL were in 20th place.
And,11 of the top 16 teams in shooting percentage at the rim, made the playoffs last season. And the Kings were tied for 17th place, and Bos was in 23rd place at 58.5%, Cle was in 24th place at 58.3%, and LAL were in 20th place at 59.4%.
So, Bos & Cle were at the bottom 3 in made baskets at the rim and in the bottom 10 in Off Rebs, and they were in the 22nd & 23rd place in shooting percentage at the rim. So, it looks like offensive rebounding and scoring at the rim wasn’t a major part of their success.
As for the World Champs, the Kings were 6th in Off Rebs to their 7th place, and the Kings were 9th in Made baskets at the rim to their 17th place, and Kings were 4th in shooting percentage at the rim to LA’s 20th place. Somewhat of a shocker considering how highly the rest of the league holds the Lakers bigs.
Bynum is 18th in shooting percentage at 69.7%, 12th in Made baskets at the rim at 4.0, and 22nd in Off rebounding at 2.7 per game. Gasol is 78th in shooting percentage at the rim at 64.1%, 17th in made baskets at 3.7, and 4th in Off Rebs. So, while Gasol is a very good rebounder, he doesn’t score as well in the paint as Bynum. Together they compliment each other. But, again the Kings outrebounded them on the offensive glass and outscored them at the rim, so I’m not sure that Offensive Rebounding carries the weight that some people think it does even if you have someone down low who shoots at a high percentage in the paint.
"If you don't have anything good to say, LIE" - Mom
The greatest impact player in NBA History - Tim Donaghy
Or even if you have a big that can play the high post like Gasol......
That will skew %’s too.
EvilCowtownInc: Screwin Suckaz over since 1985...... On Twitter
No mistakes in the tango, Donna. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....
Is seems unlikely
that the players that remain on the team will rebound at last year’s rate with better rebounders around them. But I dunno, that may apply more to defensive rebounding, which is more of a zero-sum game.
But this is great analysis…and great news. Boogie projects to be a great rebounder, and Dally has demonstrated that for years. I’m pumped
O rebounds are nice for those 2nd chance opps
Especially when Tyreke misses those shots.
But it’d be awesome if the Kings were in the top 5 for Defensive Boards also…
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Defensive efficiency gets you to the playoffs
Offensive rebounds are a key indicator of success per that formula.
That is, points allowed per 100 possessions seems to be a major indicator of a playoff team.
Check out hoopdata (I’m sure you have HT)
HERE
and click the DefEff column which will sort teams per that stat. You’ll see that the higher numbers (worse) almost without exception until #12 Phx, #15 Den missed the playoffs.
Interestingly for this post, Def efficiency is Opponents scoring per 100 possessions (FGA – Oreb + TO + FTA 0.44)
Got it? Okaaay
So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii
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